Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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Come on really???? why do we have to go back to winter now



That is more then a foot of snow here in western NY
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Is the ULL dropping further south than forecast???? Looks like it still has some good momentum to it.
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Quoting civilbull:
Did the rain go south of Tampa or is there still more coming in the evening?
Check out the Gulf. There lies your answer lol...
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Hi Cathy!!!! good to see you here this Saturday morning! You getting rain also?
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Happy Saturday to you, too Patti!
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Good morning,

Here in SE Fla, we started getting thunderstorms last night and it continued all night and so far all morning.

I gave a quick look at my rain guage this morning and saw we already had over 1.5" in less than 24 hours and the rain has not yet let up here in Broward County.

Will go home at lunch and check again.

We need the rain, all of central and south Fla needs rain that we normally do not get this time of year.

Very nice surprise!

Hi everyone, Happy Saturday to you.

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Quoting civilbull:
Did the rain go south of Tampa or is there still more coming in the evening?


I am thinking, from the discussion below as to trajectory, that the Tampa area, and North Central Florida, is going to get "tons" of rain later today and someone in the State is going to be flooded due to training effects. I cannot address the issue of sever weather but Florida needs the rain. A nice rainmaker is welcome actually.
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Did the rain go south of Tampa or is there still more coming in the evening?
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Good Morning. We know from the displaced convection which usually occurs with a low, and looking at all of the rain and t-storm activity in the Gulf, that a large part of Florida will be affected (with a probable squall line for the West Coast of Florida later). In terms of the actual center of the low, and landfall location in Florida, here is the very good am discussion from Tallahassee NWS; they are looking at the border crossing around Taylor or Dixie County:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2012

The wild card is the evolution of the large convective complex currently over the NC Gulf of Mexico. Both global and high-res models have hinted that a persistent, focused area of strong
thunderstorms would lead to the development of a convectively induced low (MCV) and PV anomaly. The last several runs of our local WRF model have generated such a MCV and track it onshore
near Taylor and Dixie Counties around 00-02z.
This will have to be watched closely as it could focus stronger and more persistent updrafts (and thereby stronger thunderstorms) as well as a corridor of heavier rainfall. Current grids call for a max total QPF around 1.8" in Dixie County, tapered down to about 1.0" along a VLD-TLH-AAF line, and down to 0.1" in the far northwest part of our area. This is pretty close to the latest HPC guidance. It should be noted that mesoscale enhancements and slow-moving thunderstorms could produce some localized corridors of rainfall around 3-4" around the Suwannee River and SE into the Florida peninsula. As deep deformation axis pivots into our area during the afternoon hours ahead of the approaching mid-upper level low center, storm motions should be rather slow with the potential for training echoes. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two, particularly in our far SE zones (Taylor, Dixie, Lafayette).
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I think we should be seeing some severe weather developing around Tampa later today (After 12:30PM). I been looking at the upper level data, everything seems in check for an active afternoon across most of central and southern Florida.


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3-Hr Precip, Cloud, and Moisture Forecasts
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03..This I.R. shows up a bit better..
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Looks like Central Florida will get some much needed rain this weekend. Hopefully this will bring our wildfire index down.
Looks very active for the month of April . The low is tightening up nicely and will be deeper than forecast. Glad to see the rain in Florida and the south East.
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Quoting LargoFl:
notice in the NWS pic,all of Pinellas is in the severe category,things can change today BUT..keep listening to your local warnings all day today and tonight especially


I see that, thanks Largo!
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Quoting LargoFl:
notice in the NWS pic,all of Pinellas is in the severe category,things can change today BUT..keep listening to your local warnings all day today and tonight especially
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cyberteddy i thought the same thing. the system will split and tampa gets nada, nothing, zero,zilch. ive seen happen so many times. i dont anything about the weather etc etc but just like to read this blog. lets hope something gets in here. the sun is peeking through broken clouds in brandon area. 1/2 inch rain in the gauge from the rain last night. 1 clap of thunder about 2am. thats it so far.
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We are in Madeira Beach. The GOM is about a block and a half in front of us and the Boca Ciega Bay surrounding our small neighborhood. We have had about 3.40" of much needed rain in the last two days but I can do without the severe stuff especially at night.
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Why don't you stop being and alarmist and just enjoy the rain Jeff9641(StormTracker2K)
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Watch, Tampa area won't see anything out of this, it will magically split before it hits us, then reform and cause chaos for south Florida as usual.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Oh yes. It can happen, rare though it is. And it is just the sort of setup that we are seeing coming together now which can produce it.

BTW, I like you updated assessment of the situation. And of course, if there are super cells with this cold air aloft then obviously we could see large hail. It likely won't be widespread but it will happen with some of the super cells, most likely.



wow this low is coming together nicely, the upper low looks really impressive! It looks like the low will be nearly vertically stacked as it comes across Florida. Powerful MCS is developing in the Central gulf and racing toward Florida. Oone thing I've noticed is that MCS getting stuck down in the keys, if convection continues to fire down there it will spread high clouds and more stable air northward towards us and severe will be limited. However, if it breaks up enough to channel more surface instability northward and allow more heating, uh oh, look out...
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As I have been saying and now the NWS in Melbourne has it in there forecast and that's possibly 3" to 6" of rain today with a widespread 3". I picked up 2.36" yesterday but someone in Altamonte Springs called in with 5.33" yesterday. I am very worried today as it looks we will see some daytime heating before the storms arrive. This will creat a very dangerous situation later today across Florida.
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HPC Short Range Discussion

Excerpt:

AFTER AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF APRIL...A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT IS
EXPECTED FROM FLORIDA TO NEW ENGLAND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
INTERACTS WITH A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST OVER FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...AND FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 ON SUNDAY AS A NEW SURFACE LOW
FORMS ALONG THE COAST. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY HAVE CHARACTERISTICS
OF A NOR'EASTER BY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AFFECT THAT AREA. A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.


HPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion

COASTAL SOUTHEAST FL...

CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF ISSUES OVER URBANIZED AREAS OF COASTAL
SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY COASTAL NORTHEAST FL THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
AVG PW VALUES...1-2 STD ABOVE THE MEAN...FCST TO REMAIN PLACE ACRS
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FL AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW FCST TO PUSH ESEWD INTO THE NRN GULF TODAY AND THEN MORE ENEWD
INTO CNTRL FL SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. MOISTURE FLUX VALUES ARE FCST
TO BECOME ANOMALOUS ACRS MOST OF FL THIS PERIOD...WITH MAX
ANOMALIES OF 4-5 STD ABOVE THE MEAN ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN PORTION
OF FL. THE ANOMALOUS PW/MOISTURE FLUX VALUES AND OVERALL STRONG
LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW WL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA.
WHILE FFG VALUES ARE VERY HIGH ACRS FL GIVEN ONGOING
DROUGHT...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF ISSUES IN
URBANIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACRS COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. ISOLATED SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1-2"+ AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE.

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Hi, good morning everyone.
Looks like Central Florida will get some much needed rain this weekend. Hopefully this will bring our wildfire index down.
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Good morning! I along with many others, I'm sure, will be checking in here today and tonight. Thank you in advance for all the info and your insight.
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Good Morning folks, going to get real Interesting here later on today and from what they say, all thru the night and into sunday, stay safe and listen to your local weather news......................have a great day everyone.........................................H AZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
602 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-211800 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
602 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
DAYTIME HEATING ADDS TO THE INSTABILITY AND THEN THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FROM TARPON SPRINGS
SOUTH AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE
CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER
WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE
SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING BRIEFLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET.
FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. IN
ADDITION...HIGH SURF MAY OCCUR WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION OR
POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. IN
ADDITION WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED.

$$

COLSON
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
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very bad storms here in the Upper Keys.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Interesting I was not aware we had such a crazy hail event! Hail has been very rare in my area since I've lived here, I've lived in Northern Pinellas County now for 16 years and I've only seen hail twice! Both times it was only about nickel sized or so. Other than that I've seen every other type of severe weather imaginable numerous times over accept maybe a high end tornado and a hurricane eye wall :)

It would be interesting if I do see hail tomorrow.



BTW I've changed my mind about what I said earlier, I was at work all NIght so I was unable to assess the situation. Upon further examination. All the thunderstorms over Florida today were ude to instability soaring above what is what expected for this point in time as a result this combined with a weak impulse from the washed out front that stalled in the eastern gulf on Thursday sparked today's thunderstorms. When I first got back from work I thought what was coming in was the low developing ahead of schedule so I was worried when I saw everything collapsing but now I know its not. The NWS in Ruskin actually predicted the activity to die down around midnight and that it did.


After further examination the forecast for tomorrow looks in good shape and if anything looks a bit more likely for severe weather as models have placed the low again a little ways north of the Tampa putting us near the greatest lift and spin from the low but also still in the warm sector. Also, the air is even colder aloft with that upper low than I first thought. When that passes overhead the deep tropical moisture and we get heating, powerful thunderstorms should explode, some super cells.


Oh yes. It can happen, rare though it is. And it is just the sort of setup that we are seeing coming together now which can produce it.

BTW, I like you updated assessment of the situation. And of course, if there are super cells with this cold air aloft then obviously we could see large hail. It likely won't be widespread but it will happen with some of the super cells, most likely.
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Barometric pressure is down to 1009.7 here.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Just look at the graph provided and ignore the imposed line of increase that does not match.

LOL ,,, how about that cherry picking?

Have a look > That is laughable........ gnight




I'm bored. I'll bite.

I think the 1.5 C line could be explained better, but it appears to be a linear regression on the observed temps for Washington D.C. since 1900. It looks like a pretty good fit to me. I wonder what the correlation coefficient is.

Your comment about cherry picking seems nonsensical. What was cherry picked? Were you a bit tired and perhaps punchy when you made your post? It happens.

The weather extremes we are now experiencing, the observed rise in sea levels and the loss of Arctic sea ice are definitely not laughable. I'm not sure where your animus comes from.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
You missed out on the chat with Dennis Phillips, he was streaming live from his kitchen, and gave me a good link for all the model runs and the dynamics going on in the atmosphere one of which is the lifted index/precipitable water and the AVN at the 500 mb. level has it at -8, but he thinks that is overdone, but also went on to say that we might get breaks in the cloud cover tomorrow and any sunlight will add to the instability later on for the severe weather.


Oh I didn't know he was doing a 1 AM chat, darn!


Yeah if we get any breaks in the clouds it will make a huge difference!


I better get to bed now, we shall see how things are tomorrow. There should be a low by morning with a tong of thunderstorms associated, you can see the low taking shape now in the Central gulf with convection firing and the rotation taking shape.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Interesting I was not aware we had such a crazy hail event! Hail has been very rare in my area since I've lived here, I've lived in Northern Pinellas County now for 16 years and I've only seen hail twice! Both times it was only about nickel sized or so. Other than that I've seen every other type of severe weather imaginable numerous times over accept maybe a high end tornado and a hurricane eye wall :)

It would be interesting if I do see hail tomorrow.


BTW I've changed my mind about what I said earlier, I was at work all NIght so I was unable to assess the situation. Upon further examination. All the thunderstorms over Florida today were ude to instability soaring above what is what expected for this point in time as a result this combined with a weak impulse from the washed out front that stalled in the eastern gulf on Thursday sparked today's thunderstorms. When I first got back from work I thought what was coming in was the low developing ahead of schedule so I was worried when I saw everything collapsing but now I know its not. The NWS in Ruskin actually predicted the activity to die down around midnight and that it did.


After further examination the forecast for tomorrow looks in good shape and if anything looks a bit more likely for severe weather as models have placed the low again a little ways north of the Tampa putting us near the greatest lift and spin from the low but also still in the warm sector. Also, the air is even colder aloft with that upper low than I first thought. When that passes overhead the deep tropical moisture and we get heating, powerful thunderstorms should explode, some super cells.
You missed out on the chat with Dennis Phillips, he was streaming live from his kitchen, and gave me a good link for all the model runs and the dynamics going on in the atmosphere one of which is the lifted index/precipitable water and the AVN at the 500 mb. level has it at -8, but he thinks that is overdone, but also went on to say that we might get breaks in the cloud cover tomorrow and any sunlight will add to the instability later on for the severe weather.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Not to worry. One of these decades, West Central Florida will see a genuine, full-blown, severe weather outbreak again.

And when that happens, South Florida will just have to sit on the sidelines and watch from afar. ;-)

Meanwhile, several of the local TV mets have mentioned the possibility of large hail at some point this weekend in our area. Paul Dellegatto of Fox 13 said that hail might fall from small showers on Sunday, after the frontal passage, as a result of diurnal heating of the land combined with the unusually cold pool of upper air passing directly overhead.

Some history.. In late April of 1973, nearly the whole of Western Pasco County and parts of Pinellas County experienced dramatic hailstorms which left golf ball-sized hailstones as much as 8 inches deep on the ground, in some places. It was a the result of part of a weather system not unlike this one that is approaching now. And it happened during the 3AM hour.



Interesting I was not aware we had such a crazy hail event! Hail has been very rare in my area since I've lived here, I've lived in Northern Pinellas County now for 16 years and I've only seen hail twice! Both times it was only about nickel sized or so. Other than that I've seen every other type of severe weather imaginable numerous times over accept maybe a high end tornado and a hurricane eye wall :)

It would be interesting if I do see hail tomorrow.


BTW I've changed my mind about what I said earlier, I was at work all NIght so I was unable to assess the situation. Upon further examination. All the thunderstorms over Florida today were ude to instability soaring above what is what expected for this point in time as a result this combined with a weak impulse from the washed out front that stalled in the eastern gulf on Thursday sparked today's thunderstorms. When I first got back from work I thought what was coming in was the low developing ahead of schedule so I was worried when I saw everything collapsing but now I know its not. The NWS in Ruskin actually predicted the activity to die down around midnight and that it did.


After further examination the forecast for tomorrow looks in good shape and if anything looks a bit more likely for severe weather as models have placed the low again a little ways north of the Tampa putting us near the greatest lift and spin from the low but also still in the warm sector. Also, the air is even colder aloft with that upper low than I first thought. When that passes overhead the deep tropical moisture and we get heating, powerful thunderstorms should explode, some super cells.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Not to worry. One of these decades, West Central Florida will see a genuine, full-blown, severe weather outbreak again.

And when that happens, South Florida will just have to sit on the sidelines and watch from afar. ;-)

Meanwhile, several of the local TV mets have mentioned the possibility of large hail at some point this weekend in our area. Paul Dellegatto of Fox 13 said that hail might fall from small showers on Sunday, after the frontal passage, as a result of diurnal heating of the land combined with the unusually cold pool of upper air passing directly overhead.

Some history.. In late April of 1973, nearly the whole of Western Pasco County and parts of Pinellas County experienced dramatic hailstorms which left golf ball-sized hailstones as much as 8 inches deep on the ground, in some places. It was a the result of part of a weather system not unlike this one that is approaching now. And it happened during the 3AM hour.


Well I had damage to my car from half dollar size hail last year in Fort Myers, so I can only imagine what golf ball size hail would do..
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Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm starting to wonder about tomorrow, looking at meso analysis moisture is not surging north like expected but pooling over South Florida and the southeast gulf. But, we'll wait and see how it looks in the morning.


Not to worry. One of these decades, West Central Florida will see a genuine, full-blown, severe weather outbreak again.

And when that happens, South Florida will just have to sit on the sidelines and watch from afar. ;-)

Meanwhile, several of the local TV mets have mentioned the possibility of large hail at some point this weekend in our area. Paul Dellegatto of Fox 13 said that hail might fall from small showers on Sunday, after the frontal passage, as a result of diurnal heating of the land combined with the unusually cold pool of upper air passing directly overhead.

Some history.. In late April of 1973, nearly the whole of Western Pasco County and parts of Pinellas County experienced dramatic hailstorms which left golf ball-sized hailstones as much as 8 inches deep on the ground, in some places. It was a the result of part of a weather system not unlike this one that is approaching now. And it happened during the 3AM hour.
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"Global Warming? Count on it." *

...the latencies of the long-haul international fiber connections are something of an issue...
...right now, round-trip travel times between London and Tokyo are taking about 265milliseconds, with routing that runs on the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean bottoms and (effectively) along Route 66.

[Over] a quarter of a second round-trip is pretty slow. [snip] Things should get better in 2013, however, when the Arctic Link cable connects Japan to Britain via the Northwest Passage. This line will run at 170milliseconds round trip.

* ie The ArcticCableCompany is betting the farm that they'll be able to run cable-laying ships through enough of the NorthwestPassage in the Summer of 2012 (and possibly the Summer of 2013) to have their system operating in the Fall of 2013 (or earlier).
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CURRENT CAPE:

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Quoting Birthmark:

Are you going to ask vague, cryptic questions as a substitute for discussion?

Take your time answering. I'm out for the night.


Just look at the graph provided and ignore the imposed line of increase that does not match.

LOL ,,, how about that cherry picking?

Have a look > That is laughable........ gnight



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Quoting Ossqss:
Dr. Masters, you are actually going to make a site that uses models, that have not been able to even remotely hindcast the last 20 years of climate, to predict the next 100 years?

Really!

Are you going to ask vague, cryptic questions as a substitute for discussion?

Take your time answering. I'm out for the night.
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Dr. Masters, you are actually going to make a site that uses models, that have not been able to even remotely hindcast the last 20 years of climate, to predict the next 100 years?

Really!

Look at your graph that shows a flat pattern from 1950 that you posted.......
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I'm starting to wonder about tomorrow, looking at meso analysis moisture is not surging north like expected but pooling over South Florida and the southeast gulf. But, we'll wait and see how it looks in the morning.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
NVM it just collapsed, I guess all we are getting is wind gusts from it, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
I'm off to bed as well....night all
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Incoming---->



Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
I would like to see more tidal energy technology developed and implemented in the USA....

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Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night All, Time to bail out of here. Stay Safe. Have a Good Night.

good night pedley
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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