Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
When this is all said and done, look at the temperatures for the remainder of the week.

nice!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
When this is all said and done, look at the temperatures for the remainder of the week.

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Quoting LargoFl:
almost here, hazy outside right now, sun is trying but failing to break thru, that line of storms is almost here, no wind right now to speak of here along the coast...................................
Brisk wind of 20 here in tarpon springs.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
Severe weather means hail 1" or greater, wind 58 mph or greater or a tornado. An outbreak, if we were talking medicine, would be an epidemic not a pandemic level of illness.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


maybe because strong and severe storms are so common down here that they do not stand out like the tornado outbreaks in the plains do

when the pattern is right, afternoon thunderstorms daily in Florida can become severe
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I drove over to Howard Park Beach to hang out and wait for the storms to hit the coast. I am armed with an anemometer, camera and laptop so I'm sure you'll be hearing from me pretty soon :)
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3631
this for our boating friends with laptops who may be scanning this blog...........................SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ755-211745-
/O.NEW.KTAE.MA.W.0042.120421T1659Z-120421T1745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1259 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST POINT TO TURKEY POINT OUT TO 20 NM OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
INCLUDING O TOWER...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1250 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 6 NM
SOUTHEAST OF O TOWER...MOVING NORTH AT 35 KNOTS.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR
SAINT GEORGE AND DOG ISLANDS BY 120 PM EDT.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2992 8449 2949 8446 2940 8462 2973 8488
2987 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 173DEG 33KT 2950 8456

$$

17-GOULD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
Quoting MRCYCLOGENESIS:




I don't have anything against bay news 9...But when it comes to severe weather Denis Phillips is the man!!
I don't even have Bay News 9 anymore since I switched over to Verizon :(...I always used to look forward to their Tropical updates at 19 and 49 after.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I feel like a lot of people on here are from Florida.
yes today is Our weather event, tomorrow it will be yours probably and alot of east coasters will be on here i'm sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
I feel like a lot of people on here are from Florida.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7849
Quoting MRCYCLOGENESIS:




I don't have anything against bay news 9...But when it comes to severe weather Denis Phillips is the man!!
I think they all will be quiter busy today and tonight, trying to outdo one another lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
Some nasty storms developing in North Florida...

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almost here, hazy outside right now, sun is trying but failing to break thru, that line of storms is almost here, no wind right now to speak of here along the coast...................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
Quoting LargoFl:
"Storms will be more numerous this afternoon and evening," Bay News 9 meteorologist Diane Kacmarik said. "We will see frequent lightning, very heavy rain and storms reforming over saturated areas. Flooding may be an issue. Strong to severe winds with the storms may also affect the area from the afternoon into the evening."




I don't have anything against bay news 9...But when it comes to severe weather Denis Phillips is the man!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Accoring to GR2Analyst, wind velocities in this line aren't bad at all...not sure if a watch is needed for this line.


I agree. Nothing severe right now. Good soaking rains.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Your picking out anomalous events...

The very simple point is that Florida is not conductive for year-to-year severe events like the Plains.


maybe because strong and severe storms are so common down here that they do not stand out like the tornado outbreaks in the plains do

when the pattern is right, afternoon thunderstorms daily in Florida can become severe
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know, Florida has a weird climate. :P



Its kinda overlooked but South Florida has the characteristics of a rain forest
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


So your statement is frankly inaccurate except in the most general terms and in comparison with other areas of the US which have far more incidence of severe weather.


Your picking out anomalous events...

The very simple point is that Florida is not conductive for year-to-year severe events like the Plains.
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PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
339 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

VALID 12Z SAT APR 21 2012 - 12Z TUE APR 24 2012

...DAY 1...

WESTERN MAINE...

THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MAINE BRINGS SHARPLY COLD
AIR ACROSS THE STATE. A PERSISTENT LAYER OF 850-700 MB
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS LEADS TO CONTINUING POST FRONTAL
PRECIP TONIGHT. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION
IN THE SOUNDING PROFILES WITH SFC TEMPS DROPPING TO FREEZING WHILE
850-700 MB ARE ABV FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED ON 06Z SUN.
CONTINUING COOLING AFTERWARD BRINGS THE PROFILES TO A SNOW
TRANSITION AFTERWARD. GIVEN STEADY ASCENT IN THE NAM/GFS
PROFILES...A LOW RISK OF A QUARTER INCH ICING WAS SHOWN.



THE MODELS ARE TARGETING WESTERN PA TO WESTERN NY FOR A LIKELY
SNOW STORM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COMING TO A CLOSER CONSENSUS ON A DEVELOPING/PHASING
NORTHERN AND SRN STREAM POTENT SHORT WAVE.
LATE SUN THROUGH MON A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING MID TO UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
DRIFTS NORTH.
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN A COUPLED JET
REGION ACROSS WESTERN PA TO WESTERN NY...ASCENT IS FCST TO OCCUR
WHICH SUPPORTS SNOW DEVELOPING ON DAY 2 AS COLD AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES INTO WESTERN PA AND WV. AS THE 700 MB LOW
MOVES NORTH FROM NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER INTO WESTERN NY...HEAVY
SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG ITS TRACK. NAM PROGNOSTICS INDICATE
CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER IN
WESTERN NY MON...SUPPORTING BANDING OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE AREA.

SINCE ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ECMWF/SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE A CLOSED SFC-700 MB LOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -3 TO -6C TO THE
WEST OF THE 850 MB LOW WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGH FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY. THE
MODELS HAVE SLIGHT TIMING AND TRAJECTORY DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW TO BE RESOLVED...BUT CLUSTERING AMONG THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/NAM/21Z SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR
DAYS 2-3. THE 0Z UKMET REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK.

FURTHER NORTH IN NORTHERN NY AND WESTERN MAINE...STRONG WARM
ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER BRINGS TEMPS BACK ABV FREEZING
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING IN THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS OVER THE NY
ADIRONDACKS AND RANGES OF WESTERN MAINE WHILE SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE WARMING REACHES THE SFC.

PETERSEN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yes but because they happen so frequently and can more often then not become severe, then doesn't that prove my point even more?

I don't know, Florida has a weird climate. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So this is just the beginning squall line #1, doesn't look too severe to me. Squall line #2 is the one I'm concerned about and is back near the ULL, that one hasn't come in range yet. So good call by the SPC to not jump the boat until we have a clear idea this afternoon. Since this low is not expected to move across the region until overnight.




clood tops in squal #1 are warming
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"These systems will phase near the Carolina coast Sunday
night...developing a major surface low there."

The N.O. office doesn't even make it plural. This sets a new standard.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I guess it all depends on the definition of what a Severe Weather outbreak is. I wouldn't really classify Florida afternoon thunderstorms as Severe Weather outbreaks because they occur so frequently.


yes but because they happen so frequently and can more often then not become severe, then doesn't that prove my point even more?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


wait wait, tornado outbreaks I agree

but typical Florida thunderstorms on there own have a risk of being severe, that happens almost every day when the pattern is right

to say Florida is not known for severe weather to me is incorrect, if you have lived in Florida and gone through what a typical summertime thunderstorm can become and still say that, well I am sorry, I just dont agree

just like you cant compare this system to ones in the midwest, you cannot in my mind claim that Florida is not known for severe weather say compared to the Midwest during tornado season, they are two completely different animals

Well, I guess it all depends on the definition of what a Severe Weather outbreak is. I wouldn't really classify Florida afternoon thunderstorms as Severe Weather outbreaks because they occur so frequently.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
So this is just the beginning squall line #1, doesn't look too severe to me. Squall line #2 is the one I'm concerned about and is back near the ULL, that one hasn't come in range yet. So good call by the SPC to not jump the boat until we have a clear idea this afternoon. Since this low is not expected to move across the region until overnight.
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...VALID 15Z SAT APR 21 2012 - 12Z SUN APR 22 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...CSTL SOUTHEAST FL...

SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FM EARLIER THINKING HERE. CONCERNS STILL
PERSIST FOR RUNOFF ISSUES OVER URBANIZED AREAS OF COASTAL
SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY COASTAL NORTHEAST FL THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
AVG PW VALUES...1-2 STD ABOVE THE MEAN...FCST TO REMAIN PLACE ACRS
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FL AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW FCST TO PUSH ESEWD INTO THE NRN GULF TODAY AND THEN MORE ENEWD
INTO CNTRL FL SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. MOISTURE FLUX VALUES ARE FCST
TO BECOME ANOMALOUS ACRS MOST OF FL THIS PERIOD...WITH MAX
ANOMALIES OF 4-5 STD ABOVE THE MEAN ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN PORTION
OF FL. THE ANOMALOUS PW/MOISTURE FLUX VALUES AND OVERALL STRONG
LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW WL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA.
WHILE FFG VALUES ARE VERY HIGH ACRS FL GIVEN ONGOING
DROUGHT...INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD PRODUCE RUNOFF ISSUES IN
URBANIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACRS COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. ISOLATED SHRT TERM PCPN AMTS OF 1-2"+ AND
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder if that holds together by the time it reaches the coast. If it does, could be some strong winds and intense lightening.


Allow me to make some pionts. First, as the ull moves SE it should pull the real low down with it to a certain degree. Second, this is not the squal line that the models were hinting at. Third and final, this "first" squal will make it to the coast but expect to to much much weaker as clood tops look to be warming
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Local forecast in St pete calls for severe storms tonight, I would think with that fact that at least a watch would be issued

I kind of see reeds' point in all of this, to me this deserves at least a watch box, probably nothing more though
i imagine around 1:30pm or so some kind of watch will be issued, surprising me is this, most of the watches for tampa, is coming out of melborne, on the other coast!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
Quoting Grothar:


Gotta say, the appearance of the system on satellite, and the really heavy rains it is going to produce reminds me a lot of T.S. Lee...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You realize he said the state isn't known for severe weather, not that it doesn't get it, right? There's a big difference. Florida does not get Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreaks often.


wait wait, tornado outbreaks I agree

but typical Florida thunderstorms on there own have a risk of being severe, that happens almost every day when the pattern is right

to say Florida is not known for severe weather to me is incorrect, if you have lived in Florida and gone through what a typical summertime thunderstorm can become and still say that, well I am sorry, I just dont agree

just like you cant compare this system to ones in the midwest, you cannot in my mind claim that Florida is not known for severe weather say compared to the Midwest during tornado season, they are two completely different animals
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Local forecast in St pete calls for severe storms tonight, I would think with that fact that at least a watch would be issued

I kind of see reeds' point in all of this, to me this deserves at least a watch box, probably nothing more though
Generally speaking, you'll see a watch box within an hour or two of the risk and rarely before convective initiation.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
801 am CDT Sat Apr 21 2012


Synopsis...


Upper low appears to be closing off over the northern Gulf. Lead
vorticity is south of Plaquemines Parish...with an associated cluster
of thunderstorms moving eastward. A second...stronger...vort has
moved off the Upper Texas coast with convection southeast of Lake
Charles. At the surface...there is not a well defined low
center...although one may be trying to develop south of Morgan
City. Very little precipitation is occurring over land in our area
at this time. Temperatures are generally in the 60s across the
area.


Short term...


As the second vorticity center catches up to the surface
low...significant cyclogenesis will occur over the northern Gulf.
This should keep most of the convection either offshore...or
limited to the southern Louisiana coast. Lighter
precipitation...with a few thunderstorms...will be possible over
much of the area...especially this morning and early afternoon.
Unless significant changes are seen in radar returns in the next
30 minutes or so...anticipate chance probability of precipitation over most of the area.
Precipitation should move out of the area this evening as the
surface low will be well east of the area. As our system moves
toward the Florida Peninsula Sunday morning...a northern stream
vorticity will be charging southeast through the Great Lakes. These
systems will phase near the Carolina coast Sunday
night...developing a major surface low there. This will bring a
reinforcement of cooler and drier air to the area for Monday.


The main weather concern over the next 48 hours will be the wind.
As low deepens a healthy pressure gradient will develop. Sustained
winds to the south of Lake Pontchartrain are likely to be in
excess of 20 miles per hour...with gusts to 35 to 40 miles per hour overnight tonight. A
second period of heightened wind speeds will occur Sunday
afternoon and evening as the Carolina phasing GOES on. Will hold
southshore Wind Advisory in place...although it will be
borderline.


Temperatures will be cooler than normal...especially on
Monday...about 5 to 10 degrees below nor
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Hmmm.. February of 1998 = 42 deaths in the Orlando area from EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.

February of 2007 = 21 deaths from EF-2 and EF=3 tornadoes in North Central Florida, roughly in an arc from 40 NW of Orlando to 40 NE of Orlando.

April of 1966 = Long track tornado that is estimated to have been of EF-3 and EF-4 strength in different places along its path, which stretched clear across the state from St. Petersburg to Cocoa. This storm began as a tornadic waterspout just offshore from Pinellas County. Another EF-3 tornado followed a similar path but about 30 miles to the south an hour or so later. 11 deaths resulted from these storms.

These are just the most prominent examples to take place during the past half century in peninsula Florida. There have been many, many other tornado and severe Wx outbreaks. So your statement is frankly inaccurate except in the most general terms and in comparison with other areas of the US which have far more incidence of severe weather.

You realize he said the state isn't known for severe weather, not that it doesn't get it, right? There's a big difference. Florida does not get Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreaks often.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
How many of you who are criticizing SPC have actually read their discussions and understand their reasoning? Watches are rarely issued before 1 pm even on high risk days on the Plains, unless morning convection is ongoing from a previous watch. I'm dumb about Florida weather but I know enough to know the dynamics are way different than they are on the Plains. Florida has a 5% tornado risk for today, which really means through 7 a.m. Sunday. What do you want, egg in your beer?

Some of you sound like you think "forecasting" a tornado is like forecasting a hurricane. Tornado potential is forecast in the moment, on the mesoscale - thus "mesoscale discussions." Be patient. Indications for days now have been for evening into overnight storms.

Here's the 11:30 am Day 1 convective outlook. An update will be out by 3 pm.
Here's an excerpt. Now just what do you think you see that they are missing?

...FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW S OF LA WILL MOVE EWD TO THE FL PENINSULA BY LATE
TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE...A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD TO THE NE GULF LATE
TODAY AND ACROSS N FL TONIGHT. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO PRECEDES A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THIS
CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE FL BIG BEND AND W COAST BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE FUTURE OF THIS CONVECTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BASED
ON MESOSCALE FACTORS. OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTION
JUST S OF THE KEYS IS INTERFERING WITH THE NEWD RETURN OF THE
RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS IS SLOWING SURFACE HEATING ACROSS
CENTRAL/S FL.

AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WITH STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS N FL...AND RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FARTHER S. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH.
THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EITHER WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OR MORE
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS N FL...AND THE RISK WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH A SECOND BOUT OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT /DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF STABILIZATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON STORMS/. GIVEN CONCERNS ABOUT PHASING OF INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW-END SLGT RISK.
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possible significant snow event

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Local forecast in St pete calls for severe storms tonight, I would think with that fact that at least a watch would be issued

I kind of see reeds' point in all of this, to me this deserves at least a watch box, probably nothing more though
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Link Water Vapor Loop

Water temps ~26-27C around the low
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Before anyone goes beserk over dribble, I suggest some maybe browse a few NWS discussions in areas to be affected or being affected before coming here and spouting off stuff that isnt actually relevant,nor correct in any fashion.

But dats jus me..


If you cant find the NWS Disco on your home page,..well, nuff said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You don't know that, and this system really isn't impressive at all in regards to severe weather. It's just a heap of heavy rain associated with an ULL.

There's a reason Florida isn't known for severe weather.

Just get off of it.


Hmmm.. February of 1998 = 42 deaths in the Orlando area from EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.

February of 2007 = 21 deaths from EF-2 and EF=3 tornadoes in North Central Florida, roughly in an arc from 40 NW of Orlando to 40 NE of Orlando.

April of 1966 = Long track tornado that is estimated to have been of EF-3 and EF-4 strength in different places along its path, which stretched clear across the state from St. Petersburg to Cocoa. This storm began as a tornadic waterspout just offshore from Pinellas County. Another EF-3 tornado followed a similar path but about 30 miles to the south an hour or so later. 11 deaths resulted from these storms.

These are just the most prominent examples to take place during the past half century in peninsula Florida. There have been many, many other tornado and severe Wx outbreaks. So your statement is frankly inaccurate except in the most general terms and in comparison with other areas of the US which have far more incidence of severe weather.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 727
Meanwhile, *Round One* is approaching the west coast of Florida.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How would you know that? For one, thermodynamics would be completely different. This is a very weak low, I doubt it would spawn much Severe Weather in the midwest even.


1004 mlb (and dropping) is not a weak low for southeast standards. Weak for the Northeast/Midwest, but not this far south. It's a decent low. FLWaterFonts posts explains my point much better then me, so yeah, I will shut up bout the topic.
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578. 7544
darn it feels like we watching a trop storm here aproching the fl pinisular and the blog but it is winding up quite good at this hour few hours more to go then boom boom
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Quoting reedzone:


Again.. and again I will say this.. I KNOW THIS.. Just saying it would be hyped a bit if this was in the Midwest. I know this doesn't deserve a watch..

How would you know that? For one, thermodynamics would be completely different. This is a very weak low, I doubt it would spawn much Severe Weather in the midwest even.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Latest (15Z) Surface 1004 mb


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Quoting reedzone:


Again.. and again I will say this.. I KNOW THIS.. Just saying it would be hyped a bit if this was in the Midwest. I know this doesn't deserve a watch..


LOL

Then stop making useless comments "if it was in the MW"

...it's not so just drop it.

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Quoting FLWaterFront:


The problem though is that the SPC has a different way of handling storms that form out over the Gulf, west of Florida and where there are no surface weather stations, than they do those that form over the land mass.

Since much of what they will do with storms in the Gulf (not tropical systems, that is covered well by the HPC) is actually guesswork that is based primarily on satellite images, they always take the most conservative possible approach when analyzing severe weather events in the Gulf which will eventually affect the Florida peninsula.

We're not talking about hype here. We're talking about a fundamental difference in dynamics combined with a lack of resources to deal with that specific type of difference in the dynamics. It is not the fault of the SPC, they just have little to work with in comparison to what they would have to work with for a storm system over the Midwest US for example.


Finally, someone gets my point..
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How do you change the weather stickers on this site to reflect pressure in mbs and not inches?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are no watches because no watches are deserved. If you think a line of heavy rain deserves a watch, ok then, but you're incorrect.


Again.. and again I will say this.. I KNOW THIS.. Just saying it would be hyped a bit if this was in the Midwest. I know this doesn't deserve a watch..
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1229 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-212230-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1229 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

.NOW...
THE SQUALL LINE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REMAINED INTACT AND IS NOW
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...MAINTAINING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF ABOUT 40 MPH. BASED
ON THE CONSISTENT DIRECTION AND SPEED...THE LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEFORE 4PM AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL INCLUDE VERY HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE...HAIL UP TO ABOUT AN INCH
IN DIAMETER (THE SIZE OF A QUARTER)...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF
TORNADOES. PLEASE MAINTAIN A HIGH LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY
AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A RELIABLE WAY TO RECEIVE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39715
...and before you go off saying it, the blog is not jumping you, just saying that saying a tornado watch is needed for a line of heavy rainfall is ridiculous.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.