Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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GOES RSO Loop
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This is how it looks right now by me..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
Quoting hurricane23:


The threat for damaging winds will definitely be there later today given wind fields increasing tonight.


Deff. Although looks like your getting some good soaking rains there, may help to limit the severe weather down by you. However, it is extremely bright out, partly cloudy skies here in Central Florida. Instability/cape values increasing here.
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..rut-roh, the anti-post? 666
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 142 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 119 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
Quoting LargoFl:
look at the warning tabs on the bottom of this radar, they are all highlighted
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
First FL warning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 141 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...OR NEAR HOPEWELL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GREENVILLE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3047 8366 3050 8341 3034 8344 3034 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 173DEG 10KT 3040 8348

$$

44-LERICOS

SPC should probably put a watch up for north Florida
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7990
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You don't know that, and this system really isn't impressive at all in regards to severe weather. It's just a heap of heavy rain associated with an ULL.

There's a reason Florida isn't known for severe weather.


The threat for damaging winds will definitely be there later today given wind fields increasing tonight.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551



WV


RGB



IR Rainbow

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
ok just about here, winds are getting stronger, and the clouds are getting darker, not a drop here yet
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
Looking at RGB loop @ NHC it looks like the ULL is diving pretty far south. Appears to be a very complicated picture in the Gulf.I wonder is this going further south than thought and will it delay the forecast for severe weather to arrive?
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Yep.
Lucky Floridians. You get Roger Edwards on mesoscale today. I have learned a lot from reading his discussions. For those who missed it on previous page...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...COASTAL-BEND AREA...COASTAL SERN PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211725Z - 212000Z

QUASI-LINEAR MCS OFFSHORE FROM FL MAY OFFER DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING ROUGHLY 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FROM FL
COASTAL BEND REGION SSEWD TO PIE-SRQ AREAS. NWRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX
MAY OFFER AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN
PANHANDLE AREAS NE AAF. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
SMALL ATTM. ADDITIONAL/SEPARATE CONVECTION INLAND MAY PRODUCE MORE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED/VARIABLE SFC MOISTURE FIELD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL. AREAS AROUND OCF AND GIF THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED MORE SUSTAINED HEATING/MIXING SHOW LOW-MID 60S DEW
POINTS...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW
POOL FROM EARLIER MCS OVER S FL...KEYS AND ADJOINING ERN GULF.
STABILIZATION FROM THAT OUTFLOW AREA ALSO WILL LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF
GULF MCS BACKBUILDING...AT LEAST FOR NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREAS OF PRIOR STG INSOLATION ARE DIMINISHING
AS PROGRESSIVELY DENSER COVERAGE AND THICKER DEPTH OF HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF MCS. THIS WILL
SLOW PACE OF FURTHER DIABATIC SFC DESTABILIZATION AND MLCINH
REDUCTION...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THERMODYNAMIC SUITABILITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INLAND. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OBSERVED RANGE OF SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS...WITH A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES F ADDED THERMALLY...WILL YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE AND SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NWD AND NEWD EXTENT ACROSS FL INTO
GA...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE PULSE/MULTICELL
MORPHOLOGY. HOWEVER...IN GROUND-RELATIVE SENSE...DEEP BULK SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME OVER FL W COAST...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT BECOMING COMMON BY TIME OF MCS ARRIVAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2012


What is good about this forecaster? Just wondering...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
From local met. Dennis Phillips, "Upon further review, it looks as though this 1st line could actually be described as a "pseudo-warm front". This line will have heavy rains, and some gusty winds, but not much more. The SECOND line is slowly forming in an arc fashion in the Gulf, South of New Orleans. THIS is the area that has potential to develop into the unstable air and become a squall line. You could argue the rains we are about to get will stabilize things quite a bit, but nevertheless, SPC is still saying things could develop. So you have heavy rains over the next 3 hours...a break...and then a second line possibly developing and heading this way later tonight. Stay tuned..."



Well behind the rain with the warm front is clearing and meso analysis shows high CAPE in that area.

However, I wonder if a squall line will develop with e cold front, the cold front doesn't look that impressive right now because moisture convergence has spread over to the warm front. There may not be enough time for moisture convergence to relocate back west with the cold front after this area of rain moves through.


People are talking about the line weakening but the reason why this line is just now a mass of rain is because it started as a squall line ahead of the cold front and it sort of transferred its focus along the warm front causing its structure to evolve from an intense squall line to a warm frontal mass. That being said, I do wonder if the second line that is forecast to develop with the cold front will actual materialize, I've analyzed the satellite imagery and I've determined that the MCS with the warm front is too close to the cold front and is thus focusing all the moisture flux along the warm front, robbing the cold front with greatest instability from firing storms.


However! The one interesting thing about this, is that the amount of clearing ahead of the cold front will also allow instability to build up to very high values behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front. That being said if moisture flux and convergence can be shifted back to the cold front later a powerful squall line could rapidly explode. But I am not super confident that it will actual develop like it's forecast to.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7944
Quoting reedzone:


Well looky here!!
Yep.
Lucky Floridians. You get Roger Edwards on mesoscale today. I have learned a lot from reading his discussions. For those who missed it on previous page...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...COASTAL-BEND AREA...COASTAL SERN PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211725Z - 212000Z

QUASI-LINEAR MCS OFFSHORE FROM FL MAY OFFER DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING ROUGHLY 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FROM FL
COASTAL BEND REGION SSEWD TO PIE-SRQ AREAS. NWRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX
MAY OFFER AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN
PANHANDLE AREAS NE AAF. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
SMALL ATTM. ADDITIONAL/SEPARATE CONVECTION INLAND MAY PRODUCE MORE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED/VARIABLE SFC MOISTURE FIELD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL. AREAS AROUND OCF AND GIF THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED MORE SUSTAINED HEATING/MIXING SHOW LOW-MID 60S DEW
POINTS...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW
POOL FROM EARLIER MCS OVER S FL...KEYS AND ADJOINING ERN GULF.
STABILIZATION FROM THAT OUTFLOW AREA ALSO WILL LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF
GULF MCS BACKBUILDING...AT LEAST FOR NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREAS OF PRIOR STG INSOLATION ARE DIMINISHING
AS PROGRESSIVELY DENSER COVERAGE AND THICKER DEPTH OF HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF MCS. THIS WILL
SLOW PACE OF FURTHER DIABATIC SFC DESTABILIZATION AND MLCINH
REDUCTION...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THERMODYNAMIC SUITABILITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INLAND. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OBSERVED RANGE OF SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS...WITH A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES F ADDED THERMALLY...WILL YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE AND SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NWD AND NEWD EXTENT ACROSS FL INTO
GA...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE PULSE/MULTICELL
MORPHOLOGY. HOWEVER...IN GROUND-RELATIVE SENSE...DEEP BULK SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME OVER FL W COAST...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT BECOMING COMMON BY TIME OF MCS ARRIVAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2012
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This is definitely on topic for this blog. It is a little about math, God and nonsense. It is also about education which has been bent one way or another on here a time or two I tell you.

Daniel Pinkwater on Pineapple Exam: ‘Nonsense on Top of Nonsense’


"That really is why it’s hilarious on the face of it that anybody creating a test would use a passage of mine, because I’m an advocate of nonsense."
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Gee, an improving GOM Dvorak on April 21.

"Strap in boyz and pull dem belt's tight one mo time."




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
HOWEVER ORGANIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS SMALL ATTM.

So much for the supercells.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


maybe because strong and severe storms are so common down here that they do not stand out like the tornado outbreaks in the plains do

when the pattern is right, afternoon thunderstorms daily in Florida can become severe


Severe weather outbreaks in Florida during the winter months and into the springtime months (through roughly mid-May) are not nearly as "anomalous" as many people would tend to believe.

Sometime go check out the stats on how many people have died in tornadoes in Florida during the past 15 years vs. how many have died in Oklahoma. If memory serves, Oklahoma wins that race but not by nearly as much as most people would think.

During and El Niño winter and spring, Florida is actually just about as likely to get a major severe weather outbreak, including potentially deadly tornadoes, as most other parts of the US that are much more known for their tornado activity. But this is in part due to the fact that tornadoes tend to be less common in the more traditional areas of the Plains and Upper Midwest during El Niño years. And of course, severe weather is more prevalent during those years in Florida than it is in other years.

It is a complicated situation but it is not accurate to say that Florida is not known for severe weather. It would be accurate to say that most people who do not live in Florida think the only severe weather we get here is hurricanes. Then again, most people don't know weather nearly as well as those who frequent this blog.

Generalizations in weather or any other subject tend to obscure the facts.
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Some may wanna watch a few Buoys south of mobile this afternoon and tonight as the center will hit one im sure.

Now the SSt's will offer up as well.

Juicy in the track and to the south fetch.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
It's pouring down rain here, no clue where it came from lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32682
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
boy just look at that low plunging down into the gulf...amazing
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
Theres ya Spinner,

The Top side was really wet and still is with breaks ,but a solid south inflow is seen about 600 ft up here.

Its gone eerie calm too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...COASTAL-BEND AREA...COASTAL SERN PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211725Z - 212000Z

QUASI-LINEAR MCS OFFSHORE FROM FL MAY OFFER DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING ROUGHLY 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FROM FL
COASTAL BEND REGION SSEWD TO PIE-SRQ AREAS. NWRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX
MAY OFFER AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN
PANHANDLE AREAS NE AAF. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
SMALL ATTM. ADDITIONAL/SEPARATE CONVECTION INLAND MAY PRODUCE MORE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED/VARIABLE SFC MOISTURE FIELD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL. AREAS AROUND OCF AND GIF THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED MORE SUSTAINED HEATING/MIXING SHOW LOW-MID 60S DEW
POINTS...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW
POOL FROM EARLIER MCS OVER S FL...KEYS AND ADJOINING ERN GULF.
STABILIZATION FROM THAT OUTFLOW AREA ALSO WILL LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF
GULF MCS BACKBUILDING...AT LEAST FOR NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREAS OF PRIOR STG INSOLATION ARE DIMINISHING
AS PROGRESSIVELY DENSER COVERAGE AND THICKER DEPTH OF HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF MCS. THIS WILL
SLOW PACE OF FURTHER DIABATIC SFC DESTABILIZATION AND MLCINH
REDUCTION...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THERMODYNAMIC SUITABILITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INLAND. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OBSERVED RANGE OF SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS...WITH A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES F ADDED THERMALLY...WILL YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE AND SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NWD AND NEWD EXTENT ACROSS FL INTO
GA...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE PULSE/MULTICELL
MORPHOLOGY. HOWEVER...IN GROUND-RELATIVE SENSE...DEEP BULK SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME OVER FL W COAST...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT BECOMING COMMON BY TIME OF MCS ARRIVAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2012


Well looky here!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...COASTAL-BEND AREA...COASTAL SERN PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211725Z - 212000Z

QUASI-LINEAR MCS OFFSHORE FROM FL MAY OFFER DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING ROUGHLY 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FROM FL
COASTAL BEND REGION SSEWD TO PIE-SRQ AREAS. NWRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX
MAY OFFER AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN
PANHANDLE AREAS NE AAF. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
SMALL ATTM. ADDITIONAL/SEPARATE CONVECTION INLAND MAY PRODUCE MORE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED/VARIABLE SFC MOISTURE FIELD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL. AREAS AROUND OCF AND GIF THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED MORE SUSTAINED HEATING/MIXING SHOW LOW-MID 60S DEW
POINTS...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW
POOL FROM EARLIER MCS OVER S FL...KEYS AND ADJOINING ERN GULF.
STABILIZATION FROM THAT OUTFLOW AREA ALSO WILL LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF
GULF MCS BACKBUILDING...AT LEAST FOR NEXT 4-5 HOURS.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREAS OF PRIOR STG INSOLATION ARE DIMINISHING
AS PROGRESSIVELY DENSER COVERAGE AND THICKER DEPTH OF HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF MCS. THIS WILL
SLOW PACE OF FURTHER DIABATIC SFC DESTABILIZATION AND MLCINH
REDUCTION...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THERMODYNAMIC SUITABILITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INLAND. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OBSERVED RANGE OF SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS...WITH A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES F ADDED THERMALLY...WILL YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE AND SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NWD AND NEWD EXTENT ACROSS FL INTO
GA...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE PULSE/MULTICELL
MORPHOLOGY. HOWEVER...IN GROUND-RELATIVE SENSE...DEEP BULK SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME OVER FL W COAST...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT BECOMING COMMON BY TIME OF MCS ARRIVAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2012
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Quoting charlottefl:
If we do get a break and the flow stays from the SW it may not matter if the sun ever breaks through or not. All of the warm moist air from the Caribbean will be surging northward. That should be enough with the other elements in place to produce at least marginally severe storms.
yes, thats what weather channel was saying yesterday, alot of moisture to work with when this system pulls it up with it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
Quoting GTcooliebai:
From local met. Dennis Phillips, "Upon further review, it looks as though this 1st line could actually be described as a "pseudo-warm front". This line will have heavy rains, and some gusty winds, but not much more. The SECOND line is slowly forming in an arc fashion in the Gulf, South of New Orleans. THIS is the area that has potential to develop into the unstable air and become a squall line. You could argue the rains we are about to get will stabilize things quite a bit, but nevertheless, SPC is still saying things could develop. So you have heavy rains over the next 3 hours...a break...and then a second line possibly developing and heading this way later tonight. Stay tuned..."


Looking over the local stations there as well, and that iz what most are seeing and saying now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
If we do get a break and the flow stays from the SW it may not matter if the sun ever breaks through or not. All of the warm moist air from the Caribbean will be surging northward. That should be enough with the other elements in place to produce at least marginally severe storms.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
...GULF WATER TEMPERATURE AT CLEARWATER BEACH 78


Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
The Surface Low is now the driver as it deepens,...the trajectory comes into play tonight and tomorrow,as the phasing that will occur over the Atlantic tomorrow will deepen it further and bring a lot wind and cooler temps on itsa backside.

The winds will be problematic along the coast and Tidal Lakes in Se.La.



Wind Advisory
Statement as of 4:21 AM CDT on April 21, 2012

... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to
10 am CDT Sunday...

* timing: winds will be strongest tonight and Sunday morning.

* Winds: sustained speeds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
will be possible.

* Impacts: unsecured objects such as trash cans may be blown
around. Driving conditions may be difficult for operators of
high profile vehicles... especially along east-west oriented
highways. Large trees will sway and some tree limbs may be
blown down. Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
So far I'm not too worried with the convection approaching the coast, despite all the favorable dynamics the line has still weakened from what it was this morning. When the line of convection first formed out in the Central Gulf it was producing thousands of lightning strikes in the form of a squall line, now its just a large swath of rain with embedded convection, and none of the convection looks close to severe, looks just like heavy rain. Strangely enough stronger thunderstorms are breaking out further north.

It is looking good rain wise for pretty much the entire peninsula, however, we will need some heating before the MCS moves through in order to see stronger convection.


Mainly I believe this is because the convective mass started out ahead of the cold front with higher instability, and as the low has evolved the complex has become associated with the warm front, evolving from a squall line into a mass of rain with areas of heavier embedded convection. Our best chance of seeing an intense squall line would be redevelopment of convection ahead of the actual cold front with the developing Low.



Actually though, this is exactly what we want to see in Central Florida, a big warm frontal mass of rain.


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7944
From local met. Dennis Phillips, "Upon further review, it looks as though this 1st line could actually be described as a "pseudo-warm front". This line will have heavy rains, and some gusty winds, but not much more. The SECOND line is slowly forming in an arc fashion in the Gulf, South of New Orleans. THIS is the area that has potential to develop into the unstable air and become a squall line. You could argue the rains we are about to get will stabilize things quite a bit, but nevertheless, SPC is still saying things could develop. So you have heavy rains over the next 3 hours...a break...and then a second line possibly developing and heading this way later tonight. Stay tuned..."
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55446
Quoting LargoFl:
in MPH how strong is 33 knots?
Let the Google help with all such matters.

Since The Big Event got underway yesterday, we've had just about a quarter-inch of rain here in Naples. The big blob that's dropping inches in the Keys is passing by just to our south, while the squall line moving in from the west looks as though it'll just miss us to our north. Storm totals for the weekend should be interesting...
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

..click image for loop.

ZOOM is available.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I drove over to Howard Park Beach to hang out and wait for the storms to hit the coast. I am armed with an anemometer, camera and laptop so I'm sure you'll be hearing from me pretty soon :)


The line doesn't look as nearly as impressive as it did 30 min ago. How many times do we see this? Storms weaken as the approach the coast.
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I have been in Florida now since the very early 80's and its funny, ive never seen hail here, maybe today or tonight i just might get that chance huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current Surface-Based CAPE across Florida.




38 mph.

The Weather Calculator


Orange areas are probably where the sun peaked the most.. My area is orange.
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not to much CAPE over southern FL hmmmmmmmm
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Quoting LargoFl:
many thanks for that, so im expecting 40 mph winds..ok ty



Anytime,..as we all learn by sharing, not by conflict.

That just derails the thread usually.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
Quoting LargoFl:
yes today is Our weather event, tomorrow it will be yours probably and alot of east coasters will be on here i'm sure


Well after all, it is a tropical weather blog, so that kinda makes sense.

Lots of regulars here for that reason. But it is not yet tropical season, so the regulars will congregate here to talk about other kinds of weather events when they are developing.
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almost here....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 119 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
JAMESTOWN TO MONCKS CORNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MONCKS CORNER...PINOPOLIS...OLD SANTEE CANAL STATE PARK...
JAMESTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND POWER LINES DIRECTLY TO THE
CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 7957 3309 8001 3316 8022 3338 7979
3334 7976 3332 7974 3332 7970 3330 7967
3330 7963 3328 7957
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 239DEG 17KT 3333 7980 3321 8001

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7990
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Severe weather means hail 1" or greater, wind 58 mph or greater or a tornado. An outbreak, if we were talking medicine, would be an epidemic not a pandemic level of illness.



the winds part happens quite often here in Florida, maybe so much so that people are used to it by now that they do not find it a big deal

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Conversion table for
knots to miles per hour



KTS to MPH
5
Knots
=
5.8
MPH
10
Knots
=
11.5
MPH
15
Knots
=
17.3
MPH
20
Knots
=
23.0
MPH
25
Knots
=
28.8
MPH
30
Knots
=
34.6
MPH
35
Knots
=
40.3
MPH
many thanks for that, so im expecting 40 mph winds..ok ty
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
Quoting LargoFl:
in MPH how strong is 33 knots?


Conversion table for
knots to miles per hour



KTS to MPH
5
Knots
=
5.8
MPH
10
Knots
=
11.5
MPH
15
Knots
=
17.3
MPH
20
Knots
=
23.0
MPH
25
Knots
=
28.8
MPH
30
Knots
=
34.6
MPH
35
Knots
=
40.3
MPH
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129323
Current Surface-Based CAPE across Florida.



Quoting LargoFl:
in MPH how strong is 33 knots?

38 mph.

The Weather Calculator
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32682
in MPH how strong is 33 knots?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
It's been partly cloudy here in Palm Coast all morning, which increases the instability because the sun has been peaking out many times.. Could be interesting later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok Tampa nws is waking up..........MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
101 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

GMZ870-873-876-211745-
101 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 1255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS LOCATED ALONG
A LINE FROM ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE OF LEE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2617 8303 2826 8379 2850 8379 2883 8400
2913 8351 2757 8315 2615 8243 2597 8291

$$


05
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551
Quoting GTcooliebai:
When this is all said and done, look at the temperatures for the remainder of the week.

nice!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41551

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.