Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Littleninjagrl:
What's up with Round #2? About what time is that supposed to arrive?


Round one should be late this evening and round two should be in the overnight hours.
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Quoting seflagamma:
Jed, been reading back.. I know you LOVE your rain and I sure hope your area gets a good
tropical downpour!!!

Grothar, our rain is going out over the water; just like you said.. where it is NOT needed!


It always does that. Although we must have gotten some good rain last night, because our pool went up about 5 inches.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



The thing is, I'm doubting the squall line with the cold front will even develop at all.

Here is why, the main moisture flux/convergence zone is currently cutoff from the main low pressure area, the MCS in the southeast gulf this morning cutoff the deep southerly flow from moving farther north. You can see how this is the case because this line that is approaching Florida was much stronger earlier because it had a moisture flux pulling ahead of the convection. A strong inflow is crucial for MCS's to develop and maintain themselves.


I'm not saying the second area won't materialize for sure, but I'm saying that I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Every system forecast to bring rain since last October has highly underachieved compared to what is forecast. If you get where I'm going here, I will monitor things closely and if we do get what is expected than hooray but I won't be shocked if we don't because there is enough reasonable evidence to suggest forecasts of wides spread heavy rain won't materialize.


You may well be right. Then again, with a storm like this over the GOM, one never knows for sure. For instance, how with the Loop Current affect it, if at all?

BTW, I have had well over an inch of rain up here in West Pasco County over the past hour. Add that to the .67 we got here last night, and I would say we're doing pretty well.

We just had a small but aggressive cell move through here. A gust of wind over 40 mph. heralded its arrival. Then the rain came down almost sideways for about five minutes and it was torrential. There were at least two nearby C2G strokes and a couple of decent claps of thunder. I thought I might even see some small hail mixed in but so far (it is still raining hard), no such luck.

If you live near KPIE, you might be in one of those dreaded Tampa Bay "rain shadows," where the precipitation seems to avoid small areas near the bay. Tampa International airport is another such area. That might possibly be one reason you have had disappointing rain totals at your location.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
for barb....................................
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Winter Storm watches going up in Western PA





NWS Pittsburgh PA



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What's up with Round #2? About what time is that supposed to arrive?
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Jed, been reading back.. I know you LOVE your rain and I sure hope your area gets a good
tropical downpour!!!

Grothar, our rain is going out over the water; just like you said.. where it is NOT needed!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
The outflow boundary that was limiting convection in the SE of this image is fading fast. Could see a quick rejuvenation of the convection at the end of the initial squall line.

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Quoting Littleninjagrl:
Checking in from Town n country area (tampa, fl). It rained for about 20 minutes pretty hard and then lightened up to a steady rain and now there is just a fine drizzle. Two or three thunder claps in the beginning and well....that's about it.
same here now on the coast, steady rain and some wind gusts, its moving inland now
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Looks like a lot of the rain for South Florida is out over the water...We are only getting light rain here in Broward County.

But it looks to me like Tampa and West coast areas north of Tampa are getting some rain..


This rain is going to be GREAT for Florida's Drought
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 302 Comments: 40954
Checking in from Town n country area (tampa, fl). It rained for about 20 minutes pretty hard and then lightened up to a steady rain and now there is just a fine drizzle. Two or three thunder claps in the beginning and well....that's about it.
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Quoting bappit:

Odd. That image does not match the one here though they are for the same place and time(s).

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/AMX_loop.gif shows more and stronger echoes. It also has the annular artifact around the radar site.


One is Composite Reflectivity, the other Base Reflectivity
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Quoting Jedkins01:



This system looked powerful this morning but is looking really weak now. Will I even get an inch of rain? I doubt it till I see it.


Don't give up hope yet, Jeds. There looks like there could be a one, two punch later today. We weren't supposed to get much today anyway. I think later tonight will be more active as that ULL begins to do its thing. We are expecting our worst weather late tonight.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:



and that was it !
yes just rain here now with a few claps of thunder, actually THIS rain is the good kind, less runoff and more soaking in, slow steady rain, this will help with our drought
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Quoting bappit:

Odd. That image does not match the one here though they are for the same place and time(s).

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/AMX_loop.gif shows more and stronger echoes. It also has the annular artifact around the radar site.


Iknow. I just noticed that on two other sites. They are all within the last 10 minutes and show different images.
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St Pete pressure is at 1006 8 mb.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting FLWaterFront:
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN/SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING THE UPPER LOW..BY NOW
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM
THE GULF AND ACROSS THE CWA OVER NIGHT.
BY SUN MORNING...SHORTLY
AFTER DAY BREAK THE LOWS WILL BE OVER GA/FL COASTAL WATERS AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FOR LATE SUN AND MON THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES BUILDS INTO THE GULF.
if i remember right,the area's right below where the LOW crosses florida, could get that dangerous squall line?
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I suspect lightning and rip tides are the greatest threats from this for Floridians followed by flooding. They are not as dramatic sounding as "damaging winds up to 70 mph".
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6156
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
the rain has begun with some thunder in Carrollwood,Tampa.



and that was it !
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You always find these wonderful toys!


Intern at WFO here for while. Full time position later this summer if all works out. Again severewx threat will come with ULL providing lift later this afternoon and into the night time hrs.
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Quoting spathy:
Looks to me like the LL Low is starting to get better organized.
I wonder what the pressure is now at the center of that low, right here in Largo, FL. it's down to 1007 mb.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting hurricane23:
Latest weather briefing NWS Miami



You always find these wonderful toys!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Let's wait to see what happens in what is being called "Round Two" which should arrive late tonight.

I can imagine a windy, warming, stirred up atmosphere ahead of that mass of energy out there, before it approaches us during the overnight.

Remember, most of the local mets have been saying for a couple of days that the real action, if it occurs, would not be with this initial line (which is now being called the warm front; hence the 'warm sector' is actually behind it) but with the front, the main low and the ULL, all behind the first line.

If you look closely at the satellite presentations and the surface maps, you can almost imagine what would be a dry line setting up out there over the GOM, if this were a storm system over the CONUS.

Don't get discouraged, if you are looking for severe weather action. If we get plenty of rain with no severe, then that is obviously the best possible scenario. If you want to see exciting weather, you may still get that later. Time will tell.



The thing is, I'm doubting the squall line with the cold front will even develop at all.

Here is why, the main moisture flux/convergence zone is currently cutoff from the main low pressure area, the MCS in the southeast gulf this morning cutoff the deep southerly flow from moving farther north. You can see how this is the case because this line that is approaching Florida was much stronger earlier because it had a moisture flux pulling ahead of the convection. A strong inflow is crucial for MCS's to develop and maintain themselves.


I'm not saying the second area won't materialize for sure, but I'm saying that I won't be surprised if it doesn't. Every system forecast to bring rain since last October has highly underachieved compared to what is forecast. If you get where I'm going here, I will monitor things closely and if we do get what is expected than hooray but I won't be shocked if we don't because there is enough reasonable evidence to suggest forecasts of wides spread heavy rain won't materialize.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



This system looked powerful this morning but is looking really weak now. Will I even get an inch of rain? I doubt it till I see it.
Maybe the ULL has a surprise or two for us... maybe not. lol
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3634
Quoting Grothar:
All the heavy rain is going over the water where it is wet enough.


Odd. That image does not match the one here though they are for the same place and time(s).

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/AMX_loop.gif shows more and stronger echoes. It also has the annular artifact around the radar site.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6156
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WHILE RAIN/SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING THE UPPER LOW..BY NOW
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING IN FROM
THE GULF AND ACROSS THE CWA OVER NIGHT.
BY SUN MORNING...SHORTLY
AFTER DAY BREAK THE LOWS WILL BE OVER GA/FL COASTAL WATERS AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FOR LATE SUN AND MON THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES BUILDS INTO THE GULF.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The ULL is beginning to fill in.

gee that low looks like its going to crash right into central florida tonight
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Quoting hurricane23:
Latest weather briefing NWS Miami



Been drizzling since this morning here in northern Miami-Dade.
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The ULL is beginning to fill in.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting hurricane23:
Latest weather briefing NWS Miami



This is really worth watching. It is a very good link. Everyone is South Florida should look at this.
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Quoting Grothar:
Nothing looks pretty severe for now. I think the real story will be when this moves up the East coast past "the Carolinas"




This system looked powerful this morning but is looking really weak now. Will I even get an inch of rain? I doubt it till I see it.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm really starting to doubt this going to live up to its expectation, the first area of convection overall is dying, and the second 1 is failing to develop, will there even be widespread 1 inch amounts?


I mean yes there are still some strong cells moving through Central Florida now but when it was way out in the gulf it was a very powerful squall line with thousands of lightning strikes and 40000 to 50000 ft storm tops.


If you get what I'm saying?


I'm not saying this won't still turn out to be what it is supposed to, but so far it's looking a little iffy.



I'm really shocked out how much this line as weakened with as strong this low is and all the moisture/dynamics in place. Even when we have everything we need for a huge rain event we still are getting less than we should?

What ever happened to Florida being a wet Climate? lol


I'm being a little over dramatic I know, I'm just frustrated how we continue to see things fall short of expectation. Unless a powerful squall line redevelops withe cold front and moves on shore, and actually stays strong, I won't buy this event.

Despite we have all the dynamics, upper support and moisture for several inches of rain and numerous intense thunderstorms cells, it isn't looking nearly as impressive as it was this morning...


Let's wait to see what happens in what is being called "Round Two" which should arrive late tonight.

I can imagine a windy, warming, stirred up atmosphere ahead of that mass of energy out there, before it approaches us during the overnight.

Remember, most of the local mets have been saying for a couple of days that the real action, if it occurs, would not be with this initial line (which is now being called the warm front; hence the 'warm sector' is actually behind it) but with the front, the main low and the ULL, all behind the first line.

If you look closely at the satellite presentations and the surface maps, you can almost imagine what would be a dry line setting up out there over the GOM, if this were a storm system over the CONUS.

Don't get discouraged, if you are looking for severe weather action. If we get plenty of rain with no severe, then that is obviously the best possible scenario. If you want to see exciting weather, you may still get that later. Time will tell.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea its pouring and pretty windy here in the southern side of Pineallas county



I live near St. Petersburg/Clearwater airport, the heavy convection that was coming just completely collapsed. Of course, if this system was really living up to what it should we what have one solid sustained line of storms and I wouldn't have to deal with the line dying out and redeveloping on the other side of me.
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Nothing looks pretty severe for now. I think the real story will be when this moves up the East coast past "the Carolinas"

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Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
235 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

FLZ050>052-055-056-060>062-212000-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-MANATEE-SAR ASOTA-CHARLOTTE-
235 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CHARLOTTE...MANATEE...SARASOTA...SOUTHERN PINELLAS...SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...WESTERN HARDEE AND WESTERN DESOTO
COUNTIES FOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SAINT PETE BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VENICE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SAINT PETE BEACH TO 6 MILES WEST OF
SARASOTA TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VENICE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH WILL
AFFECT MADEIRA BEACH...TREASURE ISLAND...EGMONT KEY AND ANNA MARIA
ISLAND.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND
A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

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Link
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Latest weather briefing NWS Miami

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Quoting Jedkins01:
Well what do you know? All the heavy activity that was approaching the coast southwest of Pinellas is dying before it gets to me and redeveloping east of me. What a shocker...


yea its pouring and pretty windy here in the southern side of Pinellas county
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Quoting reedzone:


Seems like the storms are re-organizing as they hit land... That's how strong the instability is.


By early this evening, Palm Coast could wind up being Pounded Coast.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Quoting LargoFl:
yes it updates, if it doesnt they say hit refresh


That one has pan and zoom too. Best one I have seen so far, thanks.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Our low here tonight is supposed to be 50, our high supposed to be 70. I have a feeling that with our high at 56, it will be colder than 50 tonight.


Heya Grothar!


Hola!
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Is that a "Bow Echo."... on #685 above Tampa (NW)


I don't think so. Just a strong squall line. Bow echos are usually bowing in the opposite direction.
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the rain has begun with some thunder in Carrollwood,Tampa.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
235 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

FLZ050>052-055-056-060>062-212000-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-POLK-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-MANATEE-SAR ASOTA-CHARLOTTE-
235 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
CHARLOTTE...MANATEE...SARASOTA...SOUTHERN PINELLAS...SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH...SOUTHWESTERN POLK...WESTERN HARDEE AND WESTERN DESOTO
COUNTIES FOR A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SAINT PETE BEACH TO LONGBOAT KEY TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VENICE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SAINT PETE BEACH TO 6 MILES WEST OF
SARASOTA TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VENICE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH WILL
AFFECT MADEIRA BEACH...TREASURE ISLAND...EGMONT KEY AND ANNA MARIA
ISLAND.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND
A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.


&&

LAT...LON 2779 8260 2769 8264 2765 8257 2779 8243
2779 8205 2686 8200 2693 8210 2694 8209
2695 8207 2692 8217 2686 8216 2688 8235
2761 8277 2752 8269 2763 8258 2769 8270
2764 8266 2761 8274 2780 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 270DEG 20KT 2772 8275 2737 8259
2693 8262

$$
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Quoting PedleyCA:


That's not a live cam like the other one. I like to bookmark the live ones and that one from Ft Lauderdale was a good one (realtime)
yes it updates, if it doesnt they say hit refresh
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Quoting Patrap:
For a lil idea of how cool the air behind the backside coming down is..


for NOLA tonight..

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy in the evening, then clear. Low of 55F. Windy. Winds from the NNW at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.


Our low here tonight is supposed to be 50, our high supposed to be 70. I have a feeling that with our high at 56, it will be colder than 50 tonight.


Heya Grothar!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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