Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

Share this Blog
42
+

In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 820 - 770

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

April 20, 2011

April 20, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8161
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Now pay attention!!

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I've been posting these maps for the past 3 days. Don't you pay attention????? :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


That pressure is quite low, especially considering that it is in the process of falling rapidly.


If you look at the buoy data, they are all falling rapidly in that area and to the west.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
Quoting Grothar:
106 NM Northwest of Tampa


Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (166°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.63 in and falling rapidlyAir Temperature: 71.2 F
Dew Point: 63.9 F
Water Temperature: 73.2 F


That pressure is quite low, especially considering that it is in the process of falling rapidly.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
Quoting ILwthrfan:
WOW!

IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP
THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)...NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS
(500MB AND 700MB HEIGHTS...MSLP...850MB TEMPS...AND WIND COMPONENTS)
ARE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY
SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS...
BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR
EVEN HISTORIC STATURE...IF ALL OF THESE FACTORS REMAIN IN PERFECT
ALIGNMENT.

NWS Buffalo NY

Wow, I had no idea this system would be that significant for the Northeast. If they do indeed get as much snow as advertised, there is going to be widespread power outages and downed trees. Could be quite costly.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting ILwthrfan:
WOW!

IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP
THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)...NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS
(500MB AND 700MB HEIGHTS...MSLP...850MB TEMPS...AND WIND COMPONENTS)
ARE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY
SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS...
BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR
EVEN HISTORIC STATURE...IF ALL OF THESE FACTORS REMAIN IN PERFECT
ALIGNMENT.

NWS Buffalo NY


i haved copied this for blizzs blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Later Largo :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
LOL!
Member Since: February 14, 2004 Posts: 2 Comments: 664
Quoting ILwthrfan:
WOW!

IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP
THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)...NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS
(500MB AND 700MB HEIGHTS...MSLP...850MB TEMPS...AND WIND COMPONENTS)
ARE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY
SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS...
BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR
EVEN HISTORIC STATURE...IF ALL OF THESE FACTORS REMAIN IN PERFECT
ALIGNMENT.

NWSBuffalo NY




My reaction....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
WINTER WEATHER WATCH
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
WOW!

IN TERMS OF HOW POTENTIALLY UNUSUAL THIS WHOLE EVENT COULD BE (ESP
THE SNOW ASPECT OF IT)...NEARLY ALL OF THE MAJOR FORECAST PARAMETERS
(500MB AND 700MB HEIGHTS...MSLP...850MB TEMPS...AND WIND COMPONENTS)
ARE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. IT IS CERTAINLY
SIGNIFICANT WHEN A COUPLE FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE THAT ANOMALOUS...
BUT WHEN NEARLY ALL OF THE MAIN FACTORS ARE THIS FAR FROM
NORMAL...THEN THE EVENT STARTS TO RISE TO THAT OF A MEMORABLE OR
EVEN HISTORIC STATURE...IF ALL OF THESE FACTORS REMAIN IN PERFECT
ALIGNMENT.

NWS Buffalo NY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

Yup. That's what could happen or it could be falling someplace else (carried by the wind) or just not be falling (hail for instance). That still leaves the question of why those composite images are so goofy.


I think the composite is "goofy" because it is showing the elevation slices, so close to the radar site appears what looks like rings, my take on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
April 20, 2011

April 20, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8161
106 NM Northwest of Tampa


Station 42036
NDBC
Location: 28.500N 84.517W
Date: Sat, 21 Apr 2012 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (166°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.63 in and falling rapidlyAir Temperature: 71.2 F
Dew Point: 63.9 F
Water Temperature: 73.2 F
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
A few 0.25" inch hail reports, and wind gusts to 43 mph south of Tampa, but that's it.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Alright here's the bottom line.

I've been assessing the meso analysis maps from the SPC all morning into mid day and the satellite maps and I'm starting to believe all the models are wrong and this system may be a bust. The reason why is that MCS that got stuck near Cuba and south Florida overnight basically focused the moisture flux for the low pressure center way down there and cutoff the crucial southerly flow for the low pressure system. This is why I now believe the first area of showers and thunder storms weakened so much as it came into the Tampa Bay area. If the deep southerly flow does not establish itself in front of the cold front I'm thinking this whole event this evening may never materialize...


That being said, you are probably wondering, what exactly will happen. To be honest I can't say because I don't see any way to accurately predict if moisture flow will re-establish in front of the cold front. That being said its hard for me to call what will happen tonight.

However, I do think that if a strong southerly flow does not re-establish in front of the cold front that this event will fail to materialize and we won't get even close to what was expected. Like I said, I can't really predicted changes in moisture flow and convergence and no models predicted this so I don't have much to work with regarding future behavior.


If it actually does re-establish, large thunderstorms should explode into a strong to severe squall line as instability has been building ahead of the front.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well thats it for me til tonight,ty for all the updates folks, we made it safely thru this first round here on the coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a good synopsis:


THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EITHER WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OR MORE
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS N FL...AND THE RISK WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH A SECOND BOUT OF STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT /DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF STABILIZATION WITH THE
AFTERNOON STORMS/. GIVEN CONCERNS ABOUT PHASING OF INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...WILL
MAINTAIN A LOW-END SLGT RISK.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
First flood advisory today in Puerto Rico. I suspect there will be a lot of these in the next few days.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST SAT APR 21 2012

PRC017-039-047-051-054-091-101-135-137-143-145-21 2130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0131.120421T1943Z-120421T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
343 PM AST SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...CIALES...COROZAL...FLORIDA...MANATI. ..MOROVIS...
VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 339 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES INDICATE
THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO
1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 530 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS...
AND POSSIBLY FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF
WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD
ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6637 1849 6636 1848 6629 1849 6628
1847 6621 1837 6624 1834 6641 1838 6658
1843 6657 1849 6655 1848 6646 1850 6643

$$

BCS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This storm has a bit of a 93' type of theme to it...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
The outflow boundary that was limiting convection in the SE of this image is fading fast. Could see a quick rejuvenation of the convection at the end of the initial squall line.




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
Quoting Sangria:


That is really odd...so am I...


I stole all your rain. Sorry 'bout dat.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 722
Quoting LargoFl:
wash115, you seeing this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even the NAM on board to with a big one for the Western Apps.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Nope. New Port Richey in SW Pasco.


That is really odd...so am I...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Sangria:


You must be further inland in E Pasco, I assume? I am in W Pasco, and I received .29 yesterday, and am up to .67 so far since midnight.


Nope. New Port Richey in SW Pasco.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 722
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


"When higher elevation scan information is included in the composite reflectivity, it appears to indicate more widespread rain. However, the base reflectivity images does not show that rain so it is probably not reaching the ground but evaporating as it falls from very high in the atmosphere."

Link

Yup. That's what could happen or it could be falling someplace else (carried by the wind) or just not be falling (hail for instance). That still leaves the question of why those composite images are so goofy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
yes just rain here now with a few claps of thunder, actually THIS rain is the good kind, less runoff and more soaking in, slow steady rain, this will help with our drought



This isn't a soaking rain its light rain and it won't help the drought unless we get it a lot heavier for a lot longer. It's only been raining about 10 min and its almost over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks like 1005mb to me.

sure does, going down too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Giod evening all
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8161
Looks like 1005mb to me.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

Okay, but why would the composite have the artifacts centered on the local site? I'd think the artifacts are from the local site, but they do not appear on the base.

I can see the composite being potentially misleading because different radars sample different elevations for a given location. So a radar further away could pick up hydrometeors higher up. I've long noticed that a radar return does not equal rain on the ground.


"When higher elevation scan information is included in the composite reflectivity, it appears to indicate more widespread rain. However, the base reflectivity images does not show that rain so it is probably not reaching the ground but evaporating as it falls from very high in the atmosphere."

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Round one should be late this evening and round two should be in the overnight hours.


But the main line already hit us (if that's what you wanna call it) a hit. It was nothing more than a summer shower. lol I think this was over hyped a bit IMO. So round two for me would be the over night one let's see if I can get some better rains out of that one.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MRCYCLOGENESIS:
I live in Safety Harbor. It came down pretty hard about a hour ago. Now just a steady drizzle, but i'll take it. According to Denis Phillips it will be getting very interesting later tonite!!
yes we need to be watching carefully tonight i think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Winter Storm watches going up in Western PA





NWS Pittsburgh PA







Wow...my sister lives in Cannonsburgh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWaterFront:


You may well be right. Then again, with a storm like this over the GOM, one never knows for sure. For instance, how with the Loop Current affect it, if at all?

BTW, I have had well over an inch of rain up here in West Pasco County over the past hour. Add that to the .67 we got here last night, and I would say we're doing pretty well.

We just had a small but aggressive cell move through here. A gust of wind over 40 mph. heralded its arrival. Then the rain came down almost sideways for about five minutes and it was torrential. There were at least two nearby C2G strokes and a couple of decent claps of thunder. I thought I might even see some small hail mixed in but so far (it is still raining hard), no such luck.

If you live near KPIE, you might be in one of those dreaded Tampa Bay "rain shadows," where the precipitation seems to avoid small areas near the bay. Tampa International airport is another such area. That might possibly be one reason you have had disappointing rain totals at your location.


You must be further inland in E Pasco, I assume? I am in W Pasco, and I received .29 yesterday, and am up to .67 so far since midnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Ahhhh. There is definitely moisture behind the mcs for the ull to work with
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3627
I live in Safety Harbor. It came down pretty hard about a hour ago. Now just a steady drizzle, but i'll take it. According to Denis Phillips it will be getting very interesting later tonite!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


One is Composite Reflectivity, the other Base Reflectivity


Oh.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527
Quoting Grothar:


It always does that. Although we must have gotten some good rain last night, because our pool went up about 5 inches.


it does that! I guess water attracts water :o)

I am getting close to 2" at my house over past 24 hours which is good.. it was nice and steady rainfall...
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
getting a few good gusts every now and then...............
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


One is Composite Reflectivity, the other Base Reflectivity

Okay, but why would the composite have the artifacts centered on the local site? I'd think the artifacts are from the local site, but they do not appear on the base.

I can see the composite being potentially misleading because different radars sample different elevations for a given location. So a radar further away could pick up hydrometeors higher up. I've long noticed that a radar return does not equal rain on the ground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
771. Tygor
Such a beautiful day here in South Texas. If only summer felt like this :)

79.9 degrees
14% relative humidity

Probably one of the last really nice days we'll have
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Littleninjagrl:
What's up with Round #2? About what time is that supposed to arrive?


Round one should be late this evening and round two should be in the overnight hours.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26527

Viewing: 820 - 770

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.