Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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1070. nigel20
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nothing much
watchin this system move along and take shape tomorrow gets interesting
as she pulls up along the coast
for a bee line to eastern lake ontario
bringing with it strong winds with rain
ice and wet snow
iam hoping for no snow or ice rather a cold rain too late for winter now

Yeah, the snow will only cause mess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1069. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
Quoting floridastorm:
So far, this bad weather predicted by the NWS hasn't really come true. Is it worth staying up tonight to track severe weather or is this a bust? Since the air is somewhat stable, what factors will lead to such severe weather?
Thank you

NWS wasn't predicting bad severe weather, some on this blog were! Don't stay up all night just for the storms because you'll probably end up waiting for nothing or just a weak thundershower
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
1067. LargoFl
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if everything lines up this will become a significant high impacting event from heavy wet snow causing damage to leafed out trees causing widespread power outages due to falling tree limbs on wires some regions could see over a foot of heavy wet snow from west vir./west penns/west ny and south central ontario to southern quebec
sounds like december not april huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
1066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
This is almost ridiculous..352 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 /252 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012/

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON SUNDAY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE SMOKYS EARLY MONDAY. THE SNOW FALL WILL BE
HEAVY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME TREE DAMAGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
if everything lines up this will become a significant high impacting event from heavy wet snow causing damage to leafed out trees causing widespread power outages due to falling tree limbs on wires some regions could see over a foot of heavy wet snow from west vir./west penns/west ny and south central ontario to southern quebec
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54302
1065. LargoFl
Quoting floridastorm:
So far, this bad weather predicted by the NWS hasn't really come true. Is it worth staying up tonight to track severe weather or is this a bust? Since the air is somewhat stable, what factors will lead to such severe weather?
Thank you
going to be ongoing all night long they say, that low by louisanna isnt going to get til morning our local weather guy says, rain and boomers off and on all night
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
So far, this bad weather predicted by the NWS hasn't really come true. Is it worth staying up tonight to track severe weather or is this a bust? Since the air is somewhat stable, what factors will lead to such severe weather?
Thank you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
755 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TONIGHT...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
OF THE REGION WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES WILL
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST APPROACHING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM WITH A DRY
SLOT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS
EVENING PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE DIMINISHED...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT TIMING HAS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST PEA SIZE HAIL...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING LARGER HAIL. CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

AVIATION...
ROUND ONE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW EAST OF THE TERMINALS
WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
STILL SEEING SOME CIG RESTRICTION INLAND AROUND KLAL...BUT THESE
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. WATCHING FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL
ROUND OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST AND
WILL SHOW TEMPOS FOR THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS AFTER 02Z FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE AROUND IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WITH POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR CIG/VIS WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE
CELLS. COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT...HOWEVER WINDS WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WNW AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30+ KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...14/MROCZKA
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3623
1062. Patrap
For Se. La.

Wind Advisory
Statement as of 1:46 PM CDT on April 21, 2012

... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to
10 am CDT Sunday...

* timing: winds will be strongest tonight and Sunday morning.

* Winds: sustained speeds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
will be possible.

* Impacts: unsecured objects such as trash cans may be blown
around. Driving conditions may be difficult for operators of
high profile vehicles... especially along east-west oriented
highways. Large trees will sway and some tree limbs may be
blown down.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds greater than 25 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
1061. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting nigel20:

Whats up keeper?

nothing much
watchin this system move along and take shape tomorrow gets interesting
as she pulls up along the coast
for a bee line to eastern lake ontario
bringing with it strong winds with rain
ice and wet snow
iam hoping for no snow or ice rather a cold rain too late for winter now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54302
1060. nigel20
SST Anomaly....April 21, 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1059. hydrus
This is almost ridiculous..352 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 /252 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012/

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC COAST
ON SUNDAY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 30S COMMON BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE SMOKYS EARLY MONDAY. THE SNOW FALL WILL BE
HEAVY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME TREE DAMAGE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1058. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54302
1057. nigel20
Quoting stormpetrol:

That look like a swarm of flies
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1056. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
1055. nigel20
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Whats up keeper?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1054. Patrap
White Sox's Phil Humber pitches perfect game
Los Angeles Times - ‎1 hour ago‎

He becomes the 21st major leaguer to retire all 27 batters he faces during a 4-0 victory over the Seattle Mariners. White Sox right-hander Phil Humber delivers a pitch against the Mariners during his perfect outing on Saturday in Seattle.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like the powerful dynamics from the system are overcoming the drier stable layer that infiltrated the cold frontal zone. Note that the MCS that I said was responsible for cutting off the moisture is beginning to sag southward enough for a more southerly flow to return ahead of the cold front. Indeed, because low level cumulus is racing by out of the south as the sun sets.


Looks like the line of convection is finally materializing, although I doubt it will get too severe mainly because the environment is in is still pretty stable and air aloft is quite dry even though low level moisture is high. If that line of convection can get a low level jet to start pumping into it, watch out because then it would moisten the atmosphere from the lower atmosphere up.


I


An hour ago wind was out of the ENE here. Just looked at the gague, out of the SSE now. You can def see this shift occurring on satellite. The anemometer has started registering again, guess we'll know for sure in a few hours.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
1052. Patrap
RGB



WV

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
Quoting Patrap:
Pitcher Born on 21st of December Throws 21st Perfect Game In MLB History on the 21st of April

Who was it?
Quoting skook:



Random numbers, please stay on topic, with all the inclement weather happening.

Rolling Eyes Smiley
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1050. hahaguy
We've actually had some nice weather today in SE Florida. Mostly overcast today but the sun has been out for the past few hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the powerful dynamics from the system are overcoming the drier stable layer that infiltrated the cold frontal zone. Note that the MCS that I said was responsible for cutting off the moisture is beginning to sag southward enough for a more southerly flow to return ahead of the cold front. Indeed, because low level cumulus is racing by out of the south as the sun sets.


Looks like the line of convection is finally materializing, although I doubt it will get too severe mainly because the environment is in is still pretty stable and air aloft is quite dry even though low level moisture is high. If that line of convection can get a low level jet to start pumping into it, watch out because then it would moisten the atmosphere from the lower atmosphere up.


I
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7563
1048. skook
Quoting Patrap:
Pitcher Born on 21st of December Throws 21st Perfect Game In MLB History on the 21st of April



Random numbers, please stay on topic, with all the inclement weather happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1047. LargoFl
this is about it on the warnings so far..............HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-221030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
725 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING..
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALL LOCAL WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

TORNADOES: THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPING.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WIND: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE GULF BEACHES. SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FLOODING: THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING TONIGHT
AS ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING.

WAVES: SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM AND OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE.

HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND IN THE
GULF STREAM.

WATER LEVELS MAY REACH BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE REGULAR HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR THE GULF COAST BEACHES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
1046. LargoFl
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
715 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH BEEN REPLACE WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

FLZ069-221200-
/O.CAN.KMFL.CF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120422T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMFL.CF.S.0001.120421T2315Z-120422T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.RP.S.0015.000000T0000Z-120423T1500Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-
715 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...


* COASTAL FLOODING...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...WATER LEVELS MAY REACH 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE REGULAR HIGH TIDE ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE.

* TIMING...THE GREATEST THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE AT
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION... WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
MPH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES.

* IMPACTS...BEACH EROSION AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF STRUCTURES
ALONG THE BEACH FRONT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. IN ADDITION...STRONG RIP CURRENTS CAN BE LIFE THREATENING
TO ANYONE ENTERING THE WATER. SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS JETTIES AND
PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY
ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN
CALM AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM
THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A
STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$

BAXTER
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1044. LargoFl
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm thinking the flow is gonna come back around out of the south just ahead of the ULL and the squall line. Whether it happens soon enough to make a difference in severe potential remains to be seen. Wait and see at this point. Don't think it's a bad idea though to keep your eyes on the weather this evening just in case.
i think your right there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
I'm thinking the flow is gonna come back around out of the south just ahead of the ULL and the squall line. Whether it happens soon enough to make a difference in severe potential remains to be seen. Wait and see at this point. Don't think it's a bad idea though to keep your eyes on the weather this evening just in case.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
1042. Patrap
Pitcher Born on 21st of December Throws 21st Perfect Game In MLB History on the 21st of April
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
1041. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54302
1040. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
638 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

FLC019-031-109-220000-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.Y.0005.120421T2238Z-120422T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CLAY FL-ST. JOHNS FL-DUVAL FL-
638 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ORANGE PARK...LAKESIDE...
WESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MANDARIN...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...
ARLINGTON...
NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRUIT COVE...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 636 PM EDT WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF DUVAL COUNTY AND
NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES OR FLOOD WARNINGS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 8198 3038 8192 3045 8162 3027 8158
2994 8152 2996 8184

$$

SHASHY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
1039. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
So far, I've received a whopping .06 inches a about 1/4 mile from downtown Orlando. Not a very exciting day here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1037. LargoFl
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isolated strong thunderstorms may (strong emphasis) impact Florida later on this evening...it isn't looking as bad as many have thought however.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Slight risk was dropped later.

that sounds good, just rain and some boomers maybe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
1036. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
Isolated strong thunderstorms may (strong emphasis) impact Florida later on this evening...it isn't looking as bad as many have thought however.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Slight risk was dropped later.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1034. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
1033. nigel20
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks like low instability and average to above average shear

Yeah, the shear was much higher a couple weeks ago, but the shear is now basically at average
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There is absolutely 0 wind right now (sinking air) so it may take several hours for instability to build along the FL West Coast. The sun has been out for several hours in the Gulf, and I think that's part of the reason for the firing of the latest round of storms.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2686
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks like low instability and average to above average shear

For solely the tropical Atlantic. Vertical instability and Wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean is well above average.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1030. LargoFl
alot of lightning with this new wave out in the gulf.....................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39087
Quoting tampahurricane:
Is the cluster of storms forming off the west cost of central Florida, the possible forming squall line?
Indeed
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3623
Quoting nigel20:
Vertical Instability

Vertical Wind Shear

Looks like low instability and average to above average shear
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
1027. Grothar
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Maybe I get some snow with this!!! What a strong and cold low for this time of year!


Here is the estimated snow event:

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1026. nigel20
Vertical Instability

Vertical Wind Shear
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Just next week, will mark the year of the 2011 Super Outbreak. Sooo many hook echos.

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Quoting Grothar:


About 3 inches, but my rain gauge is in the pool so it isn't reliable.


Good to hear that you were rationed some rain. It was about time.
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Quoting Grothar:




Maybe I get some snow with this!!! What a strong and cold low for this time of year!
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1021. Grothar
Quoting PedleyCA:
So Grothar,

How much rain did you get?


About 3 inches, but my rain gauge is in the pool so it isn't reliable.
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Watch the line of storms developing in the Gulf. Sun is out here now. I'll be back later, have a good evening all.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.