Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:


Just look at the radar and see for yourself, Cluster of storms organizing into a small squall line. However, I believe more storms will be forming south of that cluster as well, thus creating a longer squall line, as forecast.


meh...im not letting my guard down but after this afternoon, im not getting my hopes up either. It rained for 20 minutes here in my area of Tampa. (Town n Country) apparently it was supposed to be much worse. I saw the radar but I'll check again before I go to bed to be sure. thanks so much for responding. I think I am just getting tired of all the news stations hyping things up for no reason. Thank YOU so much for responding to my question.
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Quoting Naga5000:
So far, I've received a whopping .06 inches a about 1/4 mile from downtown Orlando. Not a very exciting day here.
That is what I have received here the past 33 days, darn drought has returned to my area, getting very dry here again.
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Yeah, there is enough there to support severe on the West Coast of Florida, looking much more impressive than earlier this afternoon.



















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Quoting Littleninjagrl:


Why do you say Tampa? I live in Tampa. I wanna know!! LOL


Just look at the radar and see for yourself, Cluster of storms organizing into a small squall line. However, I believe more storms will be forming south of that cluster as well, thus creating a longer squall line, as forecast.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
1166. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just finished the construction of my website...here it is:

Continental Weather

It's not much, but it will have to suffice for now considering I spent my money on GREarth and other things.

Well done TAwx13...i'll visit the site when I can
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Re: #1160 --- boy, I hope they're right. After days of hype, all that came ashore in Cape Coral today was a couple bands of light rain, though I could see heavier showers rolling ashore in Charlotte Harbor. I'm grateful to have gotten a decent rain last night, and the cloud cover helped us keep the bit of rain that fell today, but we sure need a lot more. Especially if we're about to have some seriously dry air and wind come pouring in behind all this.
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1164. nigel20
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The Eastern Pacific looks toasty early and Aletta will have the fuel needed.

Yeah, wind shear is relatively low and the monsoon trough is moving north...so there maybe an early start to the eastern pacific hurricane season
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Quoting reedzone:
I did say a small, potent squall line would possibly form out of those cells, guess I was right. Looking pretty bad for Tampa. I think my cells will develop further south as the instability increases.


Why do you say Tampa? I live in Tampa. I wanna know!! LOL
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Quoting charlottefl:
From NWS Ruskin:



Seems like most of the storms will stay north of us. Good News!
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Looped the water vapor image of the GOM.. I noticed how the ULL connected with the cold front, blew convection (not strong) but seems like more storms will be popping up soon below the first cluster, then organize into a squall line. This is why NWS is saying that conditions are favorable for more storms to develop overnight.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
From NWS Ruskin:

Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
1159. nigel20
Looking back at a couple pics from hurricane IKe and I really think the that storm surge should be a factor when rating hurricane categories
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Water vapor shows the low still pretty far off shore.
LinkWV Loop

Anyway, night all.
I hope Florida gets some rain out of this without too much wind damage.
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US National Weather Service Tampa Bay Florida
Thunderstorms continue to become better organized over the Gulf of Mexico to the east of Tampa Bay and the Nature Coast. Additional more discrete storms are trying to form further south to the west of Ft. Myers. All this activity will be approaching the coast over the next several hours with the threat for heavy rains, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and local media outlets for additional information on these storms any potential warnings.
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Quoting nigel20:


The Eastern Pacific looks toasty early and Aletta when it forms,will have the fuel needed.
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Severe Thunderstorms headed towards New York City at this time.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TRENTON...
WESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK...
SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MORRISTOWN...
SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SOMERVILLE...
HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
EASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT

* AT 935 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM FERNDALE TO RICHBORO TO HOLMESBURG...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF EASTON TO 14 MILES WEST OF TRENTON TO 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF PHILADELPHIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BLOOMSBURY...MILFORD...BENSALEM AND NEWTOWN AROUND 945 PM EDT...
SERGEANTSVILLE...WOODSIDE AND WILLINGBORO AROUND 950 PM EDT...
SAND BROOK...YARDLEY AND LEVITTOWN AROUND 955 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4017 7441 4008 7455 4005 7454 3997 7502
3998 7501 4000 7504 3997 7511 4028 7510
4058 7527 4062 7519 4066 7520 4093 7454
4070 7442 4067 7445 4066 7439 4061 7443
4060 7436 4045 7427 4017 7428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 255DEG 25KT 4056 7513 4030 7498
4006 7500

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31524
1154. Skyepony (Mod)
I'm expecting it to intensify.

MLB NWS
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1153. nigel20
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Sorry I was away from computer for awhile hit refresh. Didn't really work,i see on refresh system seems to be moving along now. Reference post 103 Never-mind.
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Inre earlier discussions of the lightning capital of the world: Venezuelsa's Catatumba lightning happens 140to160 nights a year, 10hours per day and up to 280times per hour,
and is thought to be the world's largest single generator of tropospheric ozone

1007 MAweatherboy1: You would laugh a million times harder if you looked at some of the comments made shortly after Don became a TS... People were calling for it to become a major hurricane, no joke!

Calling as in wishing that it would become a major hurricane: whatever could be even vaguely interpreted as a prediction of a major was swiftly shot down by the many.

Given the absurdly STRONG TexasHigh that was preventing any mitigation of the BigDrought, only a major (which tends to create its own steering environment) would have had any decent chance of penetrating inward.
Despite the NHC concensus of the path-predictions models saying otherwise, Don was heading relatively steadily for landfall in the least densely populated county in Texas, 2nd or 3rd least in the contiguousUS -- ~1 person per square mile -- for most of its lifetime in the Gulf.
Need to break the drought / high PLUS landfall of least possible harm EQUALS expectable wishing.

Heck, most of us were surprised that Don even made it to the coast of Texas what with the strong sheer vs relatively weak storm.
Admittedly watching DonWan disintegrate against the border gates with zero penetration was funny...
...or not, if one were Texan.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Well, I'll be the first to say it, I was wrong, and you were right. I thought south Florida would not be affected, but I'm rethinking my thought process.


Not bout being right or wrong.. Just about watching the system come together.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Just finished the construction of my website...here it is:

Continental Weather

It's not much, but it will have to suffice for now considering I spent my money on GREarth and other things.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31524
1148. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, nige... enjoying it right now. Not sure if I'll still be enjoying it come Monday.... lol


So you are enjoying it while it last
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Quoting reedzone:
I did say a small, potent squall line would possibly form out of those cells, guess I was right. Looking pretty bad for Tampa. I think my cells will develop further south as the instability increases.



Well, I'll be the first to say it, I was wrong, and you were right. I thought south Florida would not be affected, but I'm rethinking my thought process.
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This is starting to get rather interesting... I have only seen hail twice, maybe tonight will be the third night, lol.


Pretty much every parameter is looking much more impressive compared to even 5 or 6 hours ago, strong thunderstorms impacting those now appear much more likely. The low is back to life as maritime instability increases further. You can see the low level jet developing by feeding smaller cells into the heavier line, it appears a well formed MCS may be beginning to take shape.
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1145. geepy86
Quoting Tazmanian:




you what too smell my feet you say?

Nope
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Surprised there isn't a MESO discussion for a watch or watch unlikely.. If things get worse, they may skip the MESO and go right into a watch. I've seen them do that a few times.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting nigel20:

Happy for you Baha...how are you?
Hey, nige... enjoying it right now. Not sure if I'll still be enjoying it come Monday.... lol

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1142. hydrus
Quoting charlottefl:


3 New shear markers just popped up. Will post in a sec...
This is only my opinion, but I do believe that those storms that are now heading towards the west coast will have high winds associated with them. I hope there is not significant damage along the shoreline.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20528
My 1 and 1/2 cents. I think we my see some strong weather tomorrow afternoon in central, S. Fl. The system that robbed all the energy in the straits is dying down, moving off, and the ULL is moving further south and taking a little longer to cross the gulf. Daytime heating will make a difference tomorrow.
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I did say a small, potent squall line would possibly form out of those cells, guess I was right. Looking pretty bad for Tampa. I think my cells will develop further south as the instability increases.
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1139. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:


That wasn't Phil Humber as he is only 29.
I apologize. Must have heard it wrong, or the source may have had some numbers mixed up. I looked it up for the heck of it and found Randy Johnson pitched a perfect game at the age of 40 in 2004 while playing for the Diamondbacks. They said at the "ripe" old age of 40..... made me feel old there for a second or two...:)
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Quoting charlottefl:

I wouldn't pay much attention to the shear markers, GR2/3 exaggerates a lot. In fact, GREarth/GR2Analyst aren't even showing any shear markers.
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The squall line is beginning to solidify quite a bit on the southern end.
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Quoting WxLogic:


There should be more showing up soon.


3 New shear markers just popped up. Will post in a sec...
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685


cars parked outside tonight beware!

From the Tampa NWS 8PM update:

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED EAST
OF THE REGION WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES WILL
PUSH EAST NORTHEAST APPROACHING THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM SYSTEM WITH A DRY
SLOT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS
EVENING PUSHING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL
BE DIMINISHED...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT TIMING HAS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
APPROACHING THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ALOFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST PEA SIZE HAIL..
.WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING LARGER HAIL. CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
1133. WxLogic
Quoting charlottefl:


One cell popped up with a shear marker, it's since dropped off. But these cells are probably approaching marginally severe limits..


There should be more showing up soon.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31524
....
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
My bad post from earlier.
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Yep, I'm pretty sure this line is getting ready to explode. Serve me up crow if I'm wrong. Not saying it gonna hold all the way to the coast. But it's getting ready to put on a show.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
1128. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:


New Providence currently in the light yellow shading. Looks like the Mangrove Cay area of Andros is getting the worst of this for now... except for the N Cuban coast... lol

this is likely to move east over our island chain over night, but I am expecting we'll have more storms and a more serious cooldown tomorrow.

I'm kinda enjoying this rainy wx... nice change from constant dust.

Happy for you Baha...how are you?
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Quoting geepy86:

Something about feet




you what too smell my feet you say?
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Quoting WxLogic:
Good evening... Helicity increasing (up to 500 m2/s2) across W FL coast and expected to propagate further to the E as the LLJ does the same. Rotation highly likely in stronger convection.


One cell popped up with a shear marker, it's since dropped off. But these cells are probably approaching marginally severe limits..
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2685
1125. nigel20
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
30 day SOI index going up on the last two days from 8.0 to 7.0,following the daily SOI.



Link

Whats up Twpr? Thanks for all the webcams
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Quoting Twinkster:
what are the chances of me getting any of this rain up in gainesville from this squall line developing?


Probably about the same chance my 9:30 tennis game will be canceled in the morning.
742 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CROSS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

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what are the chances of me getting any of this rain up in gainesville from this squall line developing?
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New Providence currently in the light yellow shading. Looks like the Mangrove Cay area of Andros is getting the worst of this for now... except for the N Cuban coast... lol

this is likely to move east over our island chain over night, but I am expecting we'll have more storms and a more serious cooldown tomorrow.

I'm kinda enjoying this rainy wx... nice change from constant dust.
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1121. ncstorm
I dont know if this has been posted..but if so, excuse the duplication. Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Sunday April 22
FL east, south - 2 (before noon)
NC extreme east - 3
Other areas - 1 or less
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1120. WxLogic
Good evening... Helicity increasing (up to 500 m2/s2) across W FL coast and expected to propagate further to the E as the LLJ does the same. Rotation highly likely in stronger convection.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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