Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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678. sunlinepr
2:17 AM GMT on April 21, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Sorry, kinda got bored and annoyed with their incompetence, and quit watching after 2 or 3 minutes of them screwing around with the microphone and other crap.

They should learn to edit a video.


Very true, but Gundersen's presentation is gold... He knows how to simplify and explain what really happened and the consequences... For me a very respetable nuclear scientist...

Like he says, he loves Salmon, just like many of us.... Cesium will be in there in 2013-14, meanwhile enjoy Salmon al Ajillo...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9737
677. cspencef
1:35 AM GMT on April 21, 2012
Another TS Alberto? Glad you pointed out the one in 2006, and not the one in 1994; I don't think central Georgia wants to go through that again.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
676. Chicklit
12:31 AM GMT on April 21, 2012
Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 76. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

I wonder if this means my 9:30 Sunday morning tennis game will be canceled.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11198
675. Patrap
9:29 PM GMT on April 20, 2012


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
674. FLWeatherFreak91
6:42 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Almost looks as if a warm front or stationary front is organizing across C FL and extending into the c Gulf.
Yeah I had mentioned this earlier. This boundary which originally was a weak cold front from a couple days ago stalled across central florida, and is now being reinvigorated by a surge of southerly wind. It'll move north slightly before tonight and will be the focus for very heavy rainfall totals.

Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
673. Jedkins01
6:38 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Looks like we may get more rain today and tonight than forecasted.



Personally I think we'll get more rain for the whole event than is forecast. The HPC dropped its QPF forecast down some which I think should not have happened, they should have stuck with previous heavier amounts.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7305
672. jeffs713
6:28 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
671. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:25 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I never said it would flip the planet.


Darn! I already made the new maps! :(

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
670. Chicklit
6:22 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Afternoon, this is kind of long, but not your usual forecast, either.
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST BETWEEN ABOUT 3 PM AND 9 PM AS ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY STORMS WHICH FORM ALONG IT.

TODAY`S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AND COIN SIZED HAIL. ANY FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS...ANY STORM WHICH FORMS INLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STORMS. BOATERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR THE EAST COAST COULD PRODUCE A WATERSPOUT THAT WOULD AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3 FEET COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING NEW MOON TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST...NEW IGNITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY NEW OR SMOLDERING FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY...ANYTIME THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...FORECASTS...IMPACT WEATHER UPDATES...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH WILL REFINE THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REPORT ANY COIN-SIZED HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY.


$$

CRISTALDI/BOWEN



Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11198
669. weathermanwannabe
6:12 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
658. FLWaterFront 1:35 PM EDT on April 20, 2012

You are right about common Florida T-Storms in the Summer (or frontal system storms) reaching severe limits. I was in Orlando at a Conference last August and was sitting in the lobby looking out at a nasty afternoon T-Storm. A European Family on vacation came running indoors (They were coming in from the Pool area) and the Husband came over to me to ask if this was a "Hurricane". They had never seen afternoon boomers like that where they were from..........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8834
668. ProgressivePulse
6:05 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any storms by you buddy. thundering over by me on the northside of Orlando.


No storms ATM, just started raining though.
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667. StormTracker2K
6:04 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Howdy Grothar.



Any storms by you buddy. thundering over by me on the northside of Orlando.
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666. ProgressivePulse
6:00 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Howdy Grothar.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
665. Grothar
5:53 PM GMT on April 20, 2012


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664. StormTracker2K
5:46 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Almost looks as if a warm front or stationary front is organizing across C FL and extending into the c Gulf.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
663. StormTracker2K
5:43 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Thunderstorms firing fast around C FL. Atmosphere is very unstable today.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
662. RTSplayer
5:40 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting sunlinepr:
TODAY'S FUKUSHIMA UPDATE

MSNBC: Fukushima radiation “much higher than expected” says biologist — Negative effects to happen quicker than at Chernobyl… and be worse

Scientists are focusing on Japan’s Fukushima area after a study published this week found an alarming development at another nuclear disaster site — Chernobyl.
The proportion of female birds has fallen off since the 1986 disaster at Chernobyl, the study found [...]
[Study co-author Tim Mousseau, a University of South Carolina biologist is] expecting even worse results at Fukushima.



Fukushima Investigation: “Within one day complete meltdown and melt through occurred” — “There is no way that gov’t did not know this”- VIDEO


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1pHimEuNpM&fe atur e=player_embedded#!


Gundersen: Cesium-134 and -137 detected in Southern California pollen sample — “When you find them both together that’s a Fukushima signature” (VIDEO)
Published: April 19th, 2012 at 12:41 pm ET




Sorry, kinda got bored and annoyed with their incompetence, and quit watching after 2 or 3 minutes of them screwing around with the microphone and other crap.

They should learn to edit a video.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
661. ncstorm
5:37 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
12Z CMC Precip Map



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14616
660. Grothar
5:36 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


:D

Magnetic pole reversals don't flip the planet, though that would certainly cause some interesting effects.


I never said it would flip the planet.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
659. MAweatherboy1
5:35 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
By the way, the tornado chances for today have gone up:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7639
658. FLWaterFront
5:35 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.


I still say that if the exact same dynamics were coming together somewhere else in the CONUS, where there is land, weather stations and the ability to gather real time data at the surface and aloft upstream, as opposed to a 1000 mile wide expanse of sea water (GOM) to the west, we'd be seeing a moderate risk outlook by now.

Because this is the Florida peninsula we are talking about, there is just essentially a big black hole out there to the west and this always prompts the SPC to go very conservative in their severe Wx potential forecast for Florida. The only possible exception to this rule is when a strong TS or a hurricane is forecast to make landfall. In those cases there is pretty much no denying that conditions will be extreme.

But when it comes to the more common winter and springtime storm systems such as this one, you will never or rarely ever see them place any part of the FL peninsula into anything above the slight risk category. Somehow this needs to change in the future because Florida weather can get just a rough as Georgia (for example) weather during a severe weather setup.

With as many as 20 million people present in Florida at any given time, including tourists and part time residents, my opinion is that there is a big gap in the forecasting ability when it comes to situations like this.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
657. LargoFl
5:31 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
FLZ042-048>051-055-056-060-061-201800-
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER PTSUNNY 79 68 69 W8 29.92S
INVERNESS PTSUNNY 84 64 51 W5 29.91F
BROOKSVILLE PTSUNNY 82 67 60 VRB3 29.92F
CLEARWATER CLOUDY 82 66 58 SW14 29.92S
TAMPA INTL MOSUNNY 85 69 58 S13 29.92F
TAMPA EXEC MOSUNNY 88 66 48 SW12G17 29.91F
PLANT CITY PTSUNNY 86 68 54 W8 29.93S
MACDILL AFB SUNNY 83 72 68 W15 29.92S
PETER O KNIGHT SUNNY 86 64 48 SW14 29.92S
ST PETERSBURG PTSUNNY 80 70 71 SW10 29.91S
SARASOTA SUNNY 83 69 62 SW13 29.91S
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CEDAR KEY 75 220/ 4/ 5 1014.0S
28.5N 84.5W 75 75 CALM / 2 1013.3F 1/ 5 2/ 5
27.3N 84.2W 77 N/A 1/ 4
VENICE 77 82 190/ 10/ 11 1012.7F

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
656. ncstorm
5:30 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
12z CMC




Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14616
655. reedzone
5:30 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, little change... If today's model runs so far are confirmed by the next set then it will make a more noticeable shift



I agree
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
654. WxLogic
5:28 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
SPC AC 201718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 70 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE FL KEYS BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN GULF...WITH SLY FLOW MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
AS A RESULT...THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDING OVERNIGHT.

TO THE N...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM ERN PA INTO WRN VA AND NC.

...FL...
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF
AND THE UPPER LOW NEARS. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INSTABILITY OVERALL
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AND
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION. CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG A
BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH SPORADIC
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
MAY BE WITH THE VORT MAX...PERHAPS IN AN ARCING LINE...AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED COUPLETS
WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND A FEW TORNADOES.


...WRN NC...VA...MD...ERN PA AND NJ...
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG A COLD FRONT AS
IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE MARGINAL...AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 04/20/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1726Z (1:26PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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653. MAweatherboy1
5:26 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Still just 15% probability:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7639
652. LargoFl
5:26 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060>062-201830-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-H ARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
115 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFFECTED
AREAS CAN EXPECT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

$$

05
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
651. MAweatherboy1
5:25 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.

Yeah, little change... If today's model runs so far are confirmed by the next set then it will make a more noticeable shift

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7639
650. eddye
5:25 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
i think south fla going 2 get the worst of it and so is orlando isnt south fla in the risk area
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649. FLWaterFront
5:25 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No


Yes (they should do that anyway)
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
648. reedzone
5:22 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
647. reedzone
5:21 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
646. aspectre
5:20 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
415 TropicalAnalystwx13: I dislike 4/20. It's the one day everybody at school will pretend like they smoke marijuana.

Getting smoked is for lightweights. Physics is: Sure your idea is crazy, but is it crazy enough to be true?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
645. MAweatherboy1
5:19 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No

B- They're very cautious at the SPC, kind of like the NHC... They'll wait to make adjustments until these recent model runs get some support from the next ones.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7639
644. WxGeekVA
5:18 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No


Yes, and add a slight risk for the DELMARVA as well.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
643. LargoFl
5:17 PM GMT on April 20, 2012


WUUS54 KSHV 201651
SVRSHV
TXC005-347-201745-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0117.120420T1651Z-120420T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUFKIN...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LUFKIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUNTINGTON AND ETOILE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3142 9489 3146 9468 3145 9432 3121 9433
3120 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 258DEG 21KT 3134 9475



15



Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
642. weathermanwannabe
5:17 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Good Afternoon. Just making a comment that I am always amazed (regardless of the depth or ultimate trajectory of this one) at how good some of the models are forecasting the development of these "Gulf" lows this time of the year. I always keep an eye on the water vapor loops for the first real "sign" of the developing low to get a better picture of the depth and so forth as it progresses and deepens. So far, the ingredients are coming together over Central Texas on the loops but the actual low has not materialized yet (but it will between now and tomorrow morning on the loops).

I just hope it brings lots of rain and hope that any severe weather will remain at a minimum. I was visiting a friend just North of Orlando in April 1993 when the big "no name" storm/low came through overnight. Lot's of tornadoes, hail, trees down and his 5 acre lot was a wreck the next morning (chickens walking around everywhere cause the coops had been flipped by the winds). This will not be anywhere near that incredible system that wrecked havoc all the way up the Eastern Seaboard but I will always remember that April one and us chasing chickens in the yard the next day........... :)
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641. BenBIogger
5:16 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No


Yes.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
640. reedzone
5:15 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
15 minutes till the new outlook... Poll real quick..

Will the SPC shift the Slight Risk north?

a. Yes
b. No
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
639. BenBIogger
5:14 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
They might have to up the chances of severe storms (slightly) over central and southern Florida for Saturday.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
638. Xyrus2000
5:12 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are conflicting theories as to how hot the earth's interior is; estimates range from roughly 7500F up to 13000F. (And now when someone uses the phrase "It's hot as hell" on, say, an August day, you can correct them in the most pedantic way possible.)


Ooops. Just realized I used an F when instead of a C for the core temperature. I need my morning caffeine before I post apparently. :D

But yeah, we have no way to directly observe the core, but we do have an idea of the conditions at the core as well as ways to model the conditions. It's a fairly broad range of temepratures, but "freakin' hot" covers it. :)
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1459
637. LargoFl
5:12 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The Earth is a big gyroscope. In order to "flip" the planet, it would require a rather large amount of angular momentum to be first built up and then removed from the system.

So yes, it wouldn't be something one would miss.
i could not imagine, if we flipped and north america was now where australia is..imagine..the oceans, what waves would be produced, let alone the earthquakes etc...devastation beyond belief i would think.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
636. LargoFl
5:09 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
635. Xyrus2000
5:07 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
how would that affect us weather wise? and while its happening..and i find this amazing..would we feel it? ..


The Earth is a big gyroscope. In order to "flip" the planet, it would require a rather large amount of angular momentum to be first built up and then removed from the system.

So yes, it wouldn't be something one would miss.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1459
634. LargoFl
5:04 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

Today...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the morning...then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s near the coast and in the upper 80s inland. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s near the coast and in the mid 60s inland. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 70s near the coast and in the lower 80s inland. South winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night...Cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper 60s near the coast and in the mid 60s inland. South winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s near the coast and in the lower 80s inland. Southwest winds around 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night Through Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s near the coast and in the mid 50s inland. Highs in the upper 70s near the coast and around 80 inland.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s near the coast and in the mid 80s inland.




Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
633. LargoFl
5:04 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting reedzone:


I have a decent severe weather threat Tampa to St. Augustine, southward. Would not surprise me at the most to see a 30% prob going across the central part of Florida. Since the Low is forecast to move further north, deepening more, this should connect with the upper level disturbance. Looks like we're heading back to what we were thinking Wednesday. Probably not a Moderate Risk, but 30% is rare down here.
ok we'll see what happens, some good rain coming huh, we can sure use it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
632. Xyrus2000
5:02 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I believe the poles have reversed at least 4 times in the past. If that would happen, North America would be on the Australian time zone.


:D

Magnetic pole reversals don't flip the planet, though that would certainly cause some interesting effects.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1459
631. FLWeatherFreak91
5:01 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Looks like we may get more rain today and tonight than forecasted.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
630. Xyrus2000
5:00 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmmm.....2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.


Erm...no. The solar poles shift quite frequently with no effect on Earth. Well, more accurately, the sun has many poles. On top of that, large intense magnetic disturbances happen all over the sun that are far more powerful.

The strength of a magnetic field falls off with quite rapidly with distance. By the time you reach Earth's orbit, the field strength is 5 nano-Teslas. The strength of the Earth's magnetic field at the surface is about 50 micro-Teslas, or about 10,000 times stronger. In order to affect the Earth's magnetic field, the solar variation would need to affect the dynamics governing the Earth's core. That isn't going to happen with a 5 nano-Tesla field strength (a refrigerator magnet is a million times stronger than the sun's magnetic field at this distance).

In fact, Earth receives much more of a magnetic shock for coronal mass ejections which compress the Earth's magnetic field, and even those don't flip the poles.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1459
629. LargoFl
5:00 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC005-347-201745-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0117.120420T1651Z-120420T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUFKIN...
SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1151 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LUFKIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HUNTINGTON AND ETOILE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 9489 3146 9468 3145 9432 3121 9433
3120 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 258DEG 21KT 3134 9475

$$

15
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37067
628. reedzone
4:58 PM GMT on April 20, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
does that put tampa bay in the heavy wind and rain section if the low moves in north of us??


I have a decent severe weather threat Tampa to St. Augustine, southward. Would not surprise me at the most to see a 30% prob going across the central part of Florida. Since the Low is forecast to move further north, deepening more, this should connect with the upper level disturbance. Looks like we're heading back to what we were thinking Wednesday. Probably not a Moderate Risk, but 30% is rare down here.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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