Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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I can show you others who disagree and are not getting millions of dollars for their ideas.Remember the center of earth is 1 million degrees hot,and the ice caps were suppose to be gone this year and the world is suppose too burn up this year.Can you say nuts!!!!
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Quoting Skeptic33:
Link

That's pretty interesting.

Link

PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY

Chair of Climate, Macquarie University

Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon %u2013 Some Facts

Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation %u2013 properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2. Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.

Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby%u2019s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate.
For a man in his position, Salby seems to have an alarmingly poor understanding of the carbon cycle; perhaps I'll send him some remedial reading material so he can catch up. Something easy to start with, like perhaps Climate For Dummies, as he has a lot to learn..
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Link

That's pretty interesting.

Link

PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY

Chair of Climate, Macquarie University

Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon – Some Facts

Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation – properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2. Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.

Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby’s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I meant is when the timeframe reaches ten days,other models like ECMWF will start to run and by then,we will see if GFS is alone or not.

Oh ok- I doubt any other models pick it up though
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7306
424. MahFL
Quoting LargoFl:
70 mph winds..almost tropical storm strength at times


Tropical Storm winds are 39 MPH, did you mean Hurricane strength ?
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Quoting Skeptic33:


That website sounds much like a propaganda website. Useless.
To a denialist, "propaganda" is synonymous with "the truth", so your confusion is understandable. And on a related note, you'll find more scientific truth--that is, what you refer to as "propaganda"--here:

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/facts.asp
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I doubt it since the GFS is the only model that goes to 384 hours :)


What I meant is when the GFS timeframe reaches ten days (240 hours) other models like ECMWF will start to run and by then,we will see if GFS is alone or not.
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Quoting 1911maker:


I think you both make valid points. "old Stuff" might get tiring for the old timers, but this blog seems to get a lot of "new people". That old stuff is relevant to them, and might keep them coming back/interested. Eventuality they might start to contribute.

So keep addressing the "rants" politely as it does serve a useful function. I came to the blog to try and understand climate change. I needed exposure to the basics. The new people might need basics also.



Please see:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/classify.htm

For more information on what goes into the Drought Monitor. Also good to notice that long-term and short-term droughts defined differently and as such are calculated from different index blends.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33497
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33497
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


CA.


+1
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH EVEN SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THIS EVENT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AS THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

70 mph winds..almost tropical storm strength at times
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33497
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. Alberto,is that you lol. Of course,is 384 hours out and for sure this will change a lot. And let's see if other models join GFS later or not.


I doubt it since the GFS is the only model that goes to 384 hours :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7306
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Which one are you referring to as "Alberto", the subtropical system in the central atlantic or the low near central America?


CA.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Global Warming & 173 Climate Change Myths

Here is a summary of global warming and climate change myths, sorted by recent popularity vs what science says. Click the response for a more detailed response. You can also view them sorted by taxonomy, by popularity, in a print-friendly version, with short URLs or with fixed numbers you can use for permanent references.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php


That website sounds much like a propaganda website. Useless.
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Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH EVEN SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THIS EVENT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AS THIS WEATHER
SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. Alberto,is that you lol. Of course,is 384 hours out and for sure this will change a lot. And let's see if other models join GFS later or not.



Which one are you referring to as "Alberto", the subtropical system in the central atlantic or the low near central America?
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Good morning. Alberto,is that you lol. Of course,is 384 hours out and for sure this will change a lot. And let's see if other models join GFS later or not.

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Happy FRIDAY April 20th everybody! Today's forecast calls for sunny skies with some high clouds. Also, allergy sufferers may be around today as the pollen count is fairly elevated for this time of year. There is a risk for some decent rains on Sunday, which should help to clear the air.

Seriously though, this is the forecast for my area today interpreted from the model runs and pollen observations.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm


I also notice that the departure from average low temperatures in South Florida is forecast to be 5-10 F above normal during all five days, even though the departure from average high temperatures in this region is significantly below normal each day.
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A single page that tells the story well and provides lots of interesting links. I bookmarked it.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
558 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201600 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
558 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THE SEABREEZE
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES INLAND
AND SOUTH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH THROUGH LEE COUNTY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

COLSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33497
Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm



It's gonna be cold here in Indiana for the next 5 days. High temps will be 10 degrees below normal!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm

Definitely a big warm up out west but that's probably the most blue we've seen on those maps in a while since that big rainstorm will keep the east in the cold.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7306
403. MahFL
Quoting wxmod:


Have you seen any of the photos of the smog from India and China I've posted. That thick smog is changing the whole atmosphere, making the weather act weird, decreasing oxygen content, melting the ice cap. If you think coal or oil has more of an up side than solar, you will probably be voting for your own extinction.
The solar panels in India will also never be the cause of any war. They will just generate power. Pure and simple.


You ranted, and failed to answer my question, just like a dodgy politician.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33497
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Enough evidence for a Slight Risk from Tampa/Orlando, southward. Great call by the SPC.. However, if the Low (that hasn't formed yet) moves north into North Florida as I was forecasting earlier, the Slight Risk will most likely be adjusted north.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
As the annual hurricane conference draws to a close, I'm reminded of another meeting not long ago, where the wind marched obediently from east to west, delivering its own forecast.

From white clouds and red sticks that worry;
moving swiftly along on a terrible journey.

Hearing not then, but now is here when;
forgotten souls, howl where we’ll send.

Lord of the earth, subdue power the air;
make then mark a transition be where.

Unstem rotation, bound to be topped;
a towering, stammering, horizon unlocked.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
398. wxmod
Quoting RTSplayer:


Seem's like they are using around 11% efficient panels and losing about half their area on access paths.

I recognize they don't have a lot of spare water in India, so PV is probably the cheapest and most environmentally friendly way to go, but man, parabolic trough boilers are so much more efficient. You could get gigawatts out of that same space if you used boilers instead...


Pollution destroys space. The footprint of a solar farm seems large, but the footprint of oil and coal has to include the mining waste, air pollution, spills of toxic chemicals and the wars fought over finite resources. This solar farm is a lot more efficient than the half a planet that carbon based energy has destroyed.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1609
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
396. Skyepony (Mod)
I got 0.14" today. It was humid & summer like for a bit after dark but cooled since.

Checking out the 12Z GEOS-5..looks like a nightmare for Wanee. The worst coming through Sat evening during Furthur & The Allman Bothers.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I agree, hail is rare here in Florida mainly because instability in Florida is usually not from cold core lows, its usually surface based thermal energy that makes it unstable in relative to cooling with height, but generally speaking most of the biggest thunderstorms that we get here don't involve significant cold core pockets aloft. I don't know why people have myth in their head that tornadoes are rare here, and yes most of them are weak but we have had quite a good number of F1 to f2 tornadoes and they still do nasty damage. Anyways, its really large hail that is rare here due to the fact that that the atmosphere is much warmer through the column most of the time.

I have seen many 50,000 ft tall monsters pass over me that the radar even thinks would have large hail but hails to ever produce it. I've only seen hail twice in my 15 years of living here.


Any ways, regarding the warm front, yes, tornadoes can be a threat along warm fronts in a warm and moist setup. I have seen some big super cells fire along warm fronts with these type of system before.


Really the lack of severe mention by the SPC is due to the lack of confidence, they don't have any reason to feel confident about the severe threat even though there is certainly potential for one. I don't have confidence in it either right now. I'm just discussing the multiple solutions that could result.


Many TV mets in this area repeat the mantra that "we don't get the big tornadoes that they get in the Midwest and the Plains states. Ours are mostly weak, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes with summer thunderstorms and they last only for a minute or two."

This is a classic example of generalizing. In truth, Florida can get violent and deadly tornadoes which can compete with those in the Midwest when conditions come together just right, as may possibly happen this weekend. But it is just as likely that the necessary setup for that will not develop.

As you said, the backing off on mentioning severe Wx potential is mainly because of the lack of certainty, which in turn is in part due to the lack of hard data for observation at this point. For instance, the low center has not even formed yet upstream. But I digress..

The tornado potential in Florida is often understated, which is part of the reason that those in the general public are often completely taken by surprise here when potentially deadly twisters do in fact touch down. Another reason for this is the tendency in the mind to associate Florida with hurricanes, thus canceling out any association with tornadoes. "Tornadoes happen in Oklahoma, not Florida." This is the same principle as the idea that earthquakes happen in California, not the mid Mississippi valley (New Madrid fault system), where river floods from heavy rains happen instead. You get the picture. ;-)
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Quoting reedzone:


It's still running, the 00z run.. Looks like a really bad run, it just doesn't make sense.


Yeah I wouldn't buy it, it suffering some errors right now.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
393. wxmod
Quoting MahFL:


How well does it work during the monsoon season ?


Have you seen any of the photos of the smog from India and China I've posted. That thick smog is changing the whole atmosphere, making the weather act weird, decreasing oxygen content, melting the ice cap. If you think coal or oil has more of an up side than solar, you will probably be voting for your own extinction.
The solar panels in India will also never be the cause of any war. They will just generate power. Pure and simple.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1609
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah that was the last one I looked at, I thought it was strange myself. the folks at the NWS I think are discounting it right now as they aren't even mentioning it.


It's still running, the 00z run.. Looks like a really bad run, it just doesn't make sense.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting reedzone:
GFS is weird... shows nothing, then bombs a Low east of FL, moves up the Coast.... Weird run.


Yeah that was the last one I looked at, I thought it was strange myself. the folks at the NWS I think are discounting it right now as they aren't even mentioning it.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
Looks like NC upward may get the brunt of the storm but of course that could very well change in the next run..good night!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13486
Good night all!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7484
GFS is weird... shows nothing, then bombs a Low east of FL, moves up the Coast.... Weird run.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I can remember a number of MSC events in Central Florida where large hail (up to 3" in diameter) fell in various places, during the months of March, April and May, over the years.

If a warm frontal boundary sets up in proximity to the low center across Central Florida, this could also serve as a focusing mechanism for tornadoes, similar to events in February of '98 and February of '07.

The models are inconsistent with the precise placement of the low center, its eventual strength, etc. But the same models have been more consistent in predicting a cold core system passing directly overhead here and the jet stream diving across mid-Florida. It is rare for that to happen, especially this late in the season.



Yeah I agree, hail is rare here in Florida mainly because instability in Florida is usually not from cold core lows, its usually surface based thermal energy that makes it unstable in relative to cooling with height, but generally speaking most of the biggest thunderstorms that we get here don't involve significant cold core pockets aloft. I don't know why people have myth in their head that tornadoes are rare here, and yes most of them are weak but we have had quite a good number of F1 to f2 tornadoes and they still do nasty damage. Anyways, its really large hail that is rare here due to the fact that that the atmosphere is much warmer through the column most of the time.

I have seen many 50,000 ft tall monsters pass over me that the radar even thinks would have large hail but hails to ever produce it. I've only seen hail twice in my 15 years of living here.


Any ways, regarding the warm front, yes, tornadoes can be a threat along warm fronts in a warm and moist setup. I have seen some big super cells fire along warm fronts with these type of system before.


Really the lack of severe mention by the SPC is due to the lack of confidence, they don't have any reason to feel confident about the severe threat even though there is certainly potential for one. I don't have confidence in it either right now. I'm just discussing the multiple solutions that could result.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The plunge has stopped for now as it is going up from 8.0 that was a couple of days ago. The daily SOI has turned positive and the 30 day one follows.

Link

You can see the correlation with the sst anomaliesin the eastern pacific
april 16

april 19

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7484
385. Skyepony (Mod)
em>Powerful winds at speeds reaching up to 150 kilometers per hour wreaked havoc across Turkey yesterday, killing six, injuring 100 and sparking forest fires. High winds in the Central Anatolian province of Konya led to a sandstorm that caused a pileup on the Konya-Ankara and Konya-Ereğli highways, killing four and injuring 73. Nazife Gümüş, a 51-year-old woman in the Central Anatolian province of Kırıkkale, was killed when strong winds blew a tile off of a roof, hitting her in the head. Meanwhile, a passenger bus carrying Spanish tourists to the Central Anatolian province of Aksaray hit a cargo truck from the rear due to low visibility caused by the sandstorms. All but one of the 35 tourists on the bus were injured. Some 600 hectares of forest land were burned in a fire caused by raging storms in the district of Safranbolu in the Black Sea province of Karabük. The province’s deputy governor, Ertuğ Şevket Aksoy, said the fire had been brought under control and that efforts to cool the blaze were underway. “[Reports indicate] the fire was caused by a short circuit in electricity transmission lines during rampaging storms. ... We can say the fire has been extinguished,” Aksoy said.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 192351
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
751 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING THE MARINE
LAYER INLAND. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH WARM
RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
DEVELOPING SCENARIO OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG U/L LOW DIGS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS AS LOCATION OF MID LEVEL JET AND BEST
U/L DYNAMICS REMAIN IN DOUBT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY VERY POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY COME IN TWO SEPARATE EVENTS...FIRST A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO LATE SATURDAY. THEN THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
CORE U/L LOW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER TIMING AND OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS...THE FURTHER SOUTH THE SQUALL LINE WILL SET-UP AND MAY
ONLY IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER 18Z FRI
BUT WILL REMAIN SCATTERED SO CONTINUE VFR FORECAST WITH VCSH TO
COVER THEM. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...35/JOHNSON




I can remember a number of MSC events in Central Florida where large hail (up to 3" in diameter) fell in various places, during the months of March, April and May, over the years.

If a warm frontal boundary sets up in proximity to the low center across Central Florida, this could also serve as a focusing mechanism for tornadoes, similar to events in February of '98 and February of '07.

The models are inconsistent with the precise placement of the low center, its eventual strength, etc. But the same models have been more consistent in predicting a cold core system passing directly overhead here and the jet stream diving across mid-Florida. It is rare for that to happen, especially this late in the season.
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I'm a Cubs fan, please stop :) it's too depressing. But on a bright note we were the best team pre 1900.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah this moisture is streaming up from the NW Caribbean and you can really feel it now as dewpoints are around 70 or even higher in some cases.






Its decent for spring, by Saturday it will probably be quite a bit higher than those values, maybe around 2 inches.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
WE NEED RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST SOON!!



carefull what you wish for
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OK, Good Night All. Stay Safe, Keep your Radios Close......
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Last Sunday here in Wisconsin wind shear was so great that any developing storms were destroyed at 20 thousand feet. We were very lucky. It's a very rare thing to get a moderate warning here. 75% of residents here would have paid no attention at all, could have been tragic. Looking for opinions here. If Florida has an outbreak of severe weather are people there more apt to be prepared because of hurricane experiences or are they likely to not heed the warnings properly because they rarely see tornadoes with winds above 100mph? Great place, been lurking for quite awhile, this is my first post. Thanks everyone for the great weather info.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.