Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
big rain storm for the northeast!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting BenBIogger:


Today's 12z NAM/WRF hasn't run yet.






Yep that was my bad..it was the 6Z...i knew it was the second run....LOL....my fault.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't know if you guys noticed but for the past couple of day GFS has been predicting a TS or TD in the SW Caribbean I know I don't trust it yet but if the model continues like this for a good long while we may be looking at our first true tropical storm or depression

06Z


00Z


18Z


12Z
water temps down there are pretty warm alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
I don't know if you guys noticed but for the past couple of day GFS has been predicting a TS or TD in the SW Caribbean I know I don't trust it yet but if the model continues like this for a good long while we may be looking at our first true tropical storm or depression

06Z


00Z


18Z


12Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for this, we will really have to watch this one closely huh, rain we can use, the possible damaging winds are what I'm afraid of.alot of people here wont be listening to the possible warnings, maybe even sleeping when this comes thru..scary scenerio alright



Has the potential to be one of strongest squall lines we've seen in a while, yes. It doesn't appear that the models are going to work this out ahead of time unfortunately, I can sense frustration in the NWS discussions. Last couple supposed squall lines have flopped big time which can also happen here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Try a bit hotter:

From Wikipedia:

Earth's internal heat comes from a combination of residual heat from planetary accretion (about 20%) and heat produced through radioactive decay (80%).[82] The major heat-producing isotopes in the Earth are potassium-40, uranium-238, uranium-235, and thorium-232.[83] At the center of the planet, the temperature may be up to 7,000 K and the pressure could reach 360 GPa.[84] Because much of the heat is provided by radioactive decay, scientists surmise that early in Earth history, before isotopes with short half-lives had been depleted, Earth's heat production would have been much higher. This extra heat production, twice present-day at approximately 3 billion years ago,[82] would have increased temperature gradients within the Earth, increasing the rates of mantle convection and plate tectonics, and allowing the production of igneous rocks such as komatiites that are not formed today


7000K = 6723C = 12,133F

Which is actually slightly hotter than the Photosphere of the Sun.

At this rate, it would appear to require another 3 or 4 billion years for the core to cool to 6000F...
There are conflicting theories as to how hot the earth's interior is; estimates range from roughly 7500F up to 13000F. (And now when someone uses the phrase "It's hot as hell" on, say, an August day, you can correct them in the most pedantic way possible.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
SEVERE WEATHER ALERT.......
If you look at the latest NAM Model run, you will see a dip of the JET stream bringing with it shearing winds of around 100kts into Tennessee, North Georgia, and South Carolina as the states at most risk for some severe weather. This Low will develop into a NorEaster type system as it strengthens even deep on the EAST Coast. Below is the NAM model Run and also the Day 2 risk areas that the Storm Prediction Center has posted. Notice also that South Florida also has a Risk because of a Mid Level Surface Low moving East across the Gulf of Mexico. This should all start on Saturday with Saturday Nite something to watch! Again, as always turn your NOAA radios on and check the Batteries in them also!

Below is the 12Z NAM model run....
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/WRF/06/US/wr fUS_500_spd_84.gif

Below is from the Storm Prediction Center Risk Area...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2prob otlk_any.gif


Today's 12z NAM/WRF hasn't run yet.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Yeah, it doesn't look good for SE TX in terms of rainfall.

It DOES look good, however, for an incredibly nice weekend - a last hurrah for Springtime weather.

For those interested, here is the sounding page I'm looking at. I use KIAH, KDWH, and KHOU for my airports (Intercontinental, DW Hooks, and Hobby).

NOAA RUC soundings page - loads everything from the RUC model to GFS, FIM, CIMSS, and others


I asked Chita Johnson on ch. 11 on her facebook page about the cap and the dry mid levels, she never responed. Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)
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Quoting RitaEvac:


great

Yeah, it doesn't look good for SE TX in terms of rainfall.

It DOES look good, however, for an incredibly nice weekend - a last hurrah for Springtime weather.

For those interested, here is the sounding page I'm looking at. I use KIAH, KDWH, and KHOU for my airports (Intercontinental, DW Hooks, and Hobby).

NOAA RUC soundings page - loads everything from the RUC model to GFS, FIM, CIMSS, and others
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES...AND...BY SATURDAY...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. INTO WESTERN
CANADA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...AS MODELS INDICATE THAT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WITHIN
BROADER SCALE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REMAIN OUT OF
PHASE.

ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION
SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT LIKELY TO BE APPROACHING THE
APPALACHIANS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE
GEORGIA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE SEVERE.


...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD THAT PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PERHAPS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30-40 KT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT BEFORE...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY HAIL.


...CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE STEEP WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW
PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME WIND/SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL.


..KERR.. 04/20/2012
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Quoting jeffs713:

Holy crap... MONSTER cap over the Houston area right now. Its a solid 55-65F all the way up to about 750mb. Then there is steep lapse rates, but with a cap that massive... nothing is going to get going without incredible forcing. We shall see as the day goes on, but that cap is going to be hard to bust.

(and if you look at the NAM sounding, its even drier through the whole column, AND it is actually warmer at 820mb than it is at the surface)


great
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Quoting jeffs713:

So would that mean we would be "up under"?

And good morning, Grothar!


Morning, Jeffs!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
Quoting LargoFl:
how would that affect us weather wise? and while its happening..and i find this amazing..would we feel it? ..



Magnetic pole shifts happen all the time, every few tens of thousands of years on average, and I doubt humans would directly feel them.


True pole shifts of a serious magnitude have happened a few times in the planet's past, and in general, any catastrophe large enough to move the pole more than a few feet would probably kill an enormous number of humans.

Even the Boxing Day Earthquake and Tsunami only moved the axis a few inches, so in order to move the axis "a few feet" you'd need the equivalent of a 10.0 earthquake.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff, you waiting to see what the radar has in store this evening for us?

Holy crap... MONSTER cap over the Houston area right now. Its a solid 55-65F all the way up to about 750mb. Then there is steep lapse rates, but with a cap that massive... nothing is going to get going without incredible forcing. We shall see as the day goes on, but that cap is going to be hard to bust.

(and if you look at the NAM sounding, its even drier through the whole column, AND it is actually warmer at 820mb than it is at the surface)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
SEVERE WEATHER ALERT.......
If you look at the latest NAM Model run, you will see a dip of the JET stream bringing with it shearing winds of around 100kts into Tennessee, North Georgia, and South Carolina as the states at most risk for some severe weather. This Low will develop into a NorEaster type system as it strengthens even deep on the EAST Coast. Below is the NAM model Run and also the Day 2 risk areas that the Storm Prediction Center has posted. Notice also that South Florida also has a Risk because of a Mid Level Surface Low moving East across the Gulf of Mexico. This should all start on Saturday with Saturday Nite something to watch! Again, as always turn your NOAA radios on and check the Batteries in them also!

Below is the 12Z NAM model run....
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/WRF/06/US/wr fUS_500_spd_84.gif

Below is from the Storm Prediction Center Risk Area...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2prob otlk_any.gif
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skeptic33:


That website sounds much like a propaganda website. Useless.

Well, if you find something that conflicts with the body of scientific knowledge, do let me know. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeff, you waiting to see what the radar has in store this evening for us?

Yep. Based on the latest NWS discussion here, it looks like the front has separated from the trough, which bodes ill for us getting much rain. Whenever fronts lag, the highest PW tends to run behind the best forcing, and the low-level convergence is also out of phase with the best upper-level flow.

We shall see. (that reminds me to look at the forecast soundings... if I can find the link again)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting LargoFl:
lol in google search, put this in..what would happen if the poles reversed lol..amazing things pop up

Most of which is BS, too.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Looks like models shifted north again, as per my original forecast.. Low crosses north of Tampa, major squall line to impact Central/South Florida. It's gonna be rough tomorrow.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting jeffs713:

Uh... where the heck do you see that? (the sudden change of the sun's poles, and how the sun's orientation could influence earth's)

If you're talking about the solar max... that won't change our magnetic poles at all. Based on historical geology (rock cores), the earth's poles DO change, but not catastrophically in a matter of months. More like a matter of decades or years, in a much more chaotic fashion.
lol in google search, put this in..what would happen if the poles reversed lol..amazing things pop up
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting Grothar:


I believe the poles have reversed at least 4 times in the past. If that would happen, North America would be on the Australian time zone.
how would that affect us weather wise? and while its happening..and i find this amazing..would we feel it? ..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting Xyrus2000:


1. As noted by another poster, the core of the Earth is around 5700 F.

2. The projections as stated in the IPCC report show an ice free arctic summer between 2035 and 2050.

3. Only ignorant and/or unstable people think the world is going to end this year (by whatever means their conspiracy theories/gods/aliens/invisible unicorn monkeys tell them it will end).


Try a bit hotter:

From Wikipedia:

Earth's internal heat comes from a combination of residual heat from planetary accretion (about 20%) and heat produced through radioactive decay (80%).[82] The major heat-producing isotopes in the Earth are potassium-40, uranium-238, uranium-235, and thorium-232.[83] At the center of the planet, the temperature may be up to 7,000 K and the pressure could reach 360 GPa.[84] Because much of the heat is provided by radioactive decay, scientists surmise that early in Earth history, before isotopes with short half-lives had been depleted, Earth's heat production would have been much higher. This extra heat production, twice present-day at approximately 3 billion years ago,[82] would have increased temperature gradients within the Earth, increasing the rates of mantle convection and plate tectonics, and allowing the production of igneous rocks such as komatiites that are not formed today


7000K = 6723C = 12,133F

Which is actually slightly hotter than the Photosphere of the Sun.

At this rate, it would appear to require another 3 or 4 billion years for the core to cool to 6000F...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jeff, you waiting to see what the radar has in store this evening for us?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
April 8-14:



About the same time last month:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7600
Quoting Grothar:


I believe the poles have reversed at least 4 times in the past. If that would happen, North America would be on the Australian time zone.

So would that mean we would be "up under"?

And good morning, Grothar!
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting Grothar:
The NAM is following the GFS closely.




The dual-lobed nature of the low will help spread out its energy, and keep each lobe weaker, rather than making one stronger low, with more concentrated rainfall. In other words... its a good thing they are staying split.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting LargoFl:
interesting thought there, what would happen, if what some say( and i dont believe this for a minute) but what would happen if the poles ..reversed?


I believe the poles have reversed at least 4 times in the past. If that would happen, North America would be on the Australian time zone.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
The NAM is following the GFS closely.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
449. Jax82
Hooray! Looks like 2 inches of rain, maybe a little more locally but nothing outrageous for FL.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This run shows a strengthening system up the East Coast

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmmm.....2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.

Uh... where the heck do you see that? (the sudden change of the sun's poles, and how the sun's orientation could influence earth's)

If you're talking about the solar max... that won't change our magnetic poles at all. Based on historical geology (rock cores), the earth's poles DO change, but not catastrophically in a matter of months. More like a matter of decades or years, in a much more chaotic fashion.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting Neapolitan:
The big western US warmup getting underway, then the blob o'heat begins moving eastward by next weekend. The following maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm


Neo - Thanks as always for the excellent graphics!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks, I have a question, some of you are really good at this, how bad, wind wise, do you think it will be around the tampa bay area with this system moving towards us..would it be just a series of thunderstorms? like we get in the summertime?..or maybe worse

Strong storms bordering on severe. Expect 40-50 mph wind gusts, with the possibility of 60 mph winds in the severe ones. There won't be much in the way of sustained high winds, as the core of the energy is in the middle levels.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for this, we will really have to watch this one closely huh, rain we can use, the possible damaging winds are what I'm afraid of.alot of people here wont be listening to the possible warnings, maybe even sleeping when this comes thru..scary scenerio alright
YW.
The way the models have been back and forth on this, and just observing the way severe works... one day depends some on what happened the day before... you won't know for sure till it gets there. jmo. Severe hail also a possible. You just need to keep your eyes and ears open.
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This GFS run has it down to 985 mb.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25291
hmmmm.....2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting Xyrus2000:


1. As noted by another poster, the core of the Earth is around 5700 F.

2. The projections as stated in the IPCC report show an ice free arctic summer between 2035 and 2050.

3. Only ignorant and/or unstable people think the world is going to end this year (by whatever means their conspiracy theories/gods/aliens/invisible unicorn monkeys tell them it will end).
interesting thought there, what would happen, if what some say( and i dont believe this for a minute) but what would happen if the poles ..reversed?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting help4u:
I can show you others who disagree and are not getting millions of dollars for their ideas.Remember the center of earth is 1 million degrees hot,and the ice caps were suppose to be gone this year and the world is suppose too burn up this year.Can you say nuts!!!!


1. As noted by another poster, the core of the Earth is around 5700 F.

2. The projections as stated in the IPCC report show an ice free arctic summer between 2035 and 2050.

3. Only ignorant and/or unstable people think the world is going to end this year (by whatever means their conspiracy theories/gods/aliens/invisible unicorn monkeys tell them it will end).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Good Morning folks, I have a question, some of you are really good at this, how bad, wind wise, do you think it will be around the tampa bay area with this system moving towards us..would it be just a series of thunderstorms? like we get in the summertime?..or maybe worse
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting MahFL:


Tropical Storm winds are 39 MPH, did you mean Hurricane strength ?
yes ty, i'm still not awake fully lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Good Morning....
Trinidad weather now.

Heavy overcast, fog and drizzle, thunder close by, 1.25" yesterday, more to come.

Pretty normal conditions, for August.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23992
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Anybody catch the O6Z day 2 Convective Outlook for Florida? New day 2 will be out at 12:30 pm today.



Sending this stuff your way from the middle...
:)

Excerpts...
ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD THAT PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PERHAPS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30-40 KT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT BEFORE...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY HAIL.
thanks for this, we will really have to watch this one closely huh, rain we can use, the possible damaging winds are what I'm afraid of.alot of people here wont be listening to the possible warnings, maybe even sleeping when this comes thru..scary scenerio alright
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36829
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I meant is when the GFS timeframe reaches ten days (240 hours) other models like ECMWF will start to run and by then,we will see if GFS is alone or not.

Not to mention, by that time, the GFS would have dropped the feature several times, and completely changed.

I honestly don't understand why they run the GFS so far out, when its error rate is so alarmingly high past 7 days.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Anybody catch the O6Z day 2 Convective Outlook for Florida? New day 2 will be out at 12:30 pm today. (CDT)



Sending this stuff your way from the middle...
:)

Excerpts...
ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. MODELS HAVE
EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST/
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD THAT PERSISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EVOLUTION ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PERHAPS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE MAY REMAIN WEAK TO
MODEST IN NATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF
30-40 KT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...IF NOT BEFORE...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE. AS THIS OCCURS...IN THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROBABLY WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY HAIL.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
To a denialist, "propaganda" is synonymous with "the truth", so your confusion is understandable. And on a related note, you'll find more scientific truth--that is, what you refer to as "propaganda"--here:

http://www.wunderground.com/climate/facts.asp


Dude. Why are you citing facts? Facts died yesterday. Facts' obit
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I also notice that the departure from average low temperatures in South Florida is forecast to be 5-10 F above normal during all five days, even though the departure from average high temperatures in this region is significantly below normal each day.

Dry air is awesome during the spring for that. Cool mornings (reminds you of the winter that has passed), but pleasant afternoons, with stable temps in the 70s and lower 80s.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5871
Quoting MahFL:


How well does it work during the monsoon season ?


Pretty good actually. Link

As you can see, average solar insolation values for India are quite respectable.
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Uhhh... the Earth is about 5700 deg-C at it's core. That's hot, but nowhere near "a million".

I'll second the notion that it's distressing that an atmospheric physicist hasn't consulted with any geologists or biologists, apparently, on the workings and rates of processes involved in the carbon cycle. Egads.
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I can show you others who disagree and are not getting millions of dollars for their ideas.Remember the center of earth is 1 million degrees hot,and the ice caps were suppose to be gone this year and the world is suppose too burn up this year.Can you say nuts!!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.