Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Storm of the Centuryesque?



Highly doubt to that degree but the potential exists for a similar event. Mainly posting the image for a visual representation of what we may see this weekend.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.


????????????
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Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting Patrap:
..one can almost taste da doom


Good morning Pat!
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Quoting jeffs713:

I'm not, actually. I'm judging based upon her posted resume, website and current job. There is no mention of a degree anywhere (on KHOU's site, her site, or anywhere else I've found her info). If someone was a TV weather personality, and had a degree... You'd be sure to post it.

Here is an excerpt from the AMS website regarding the seal of approval (bolded emphasis is mine):

"What is the AMS Seal of Approval?

The AMS Seal of Approval was launched in 1957 as a way to recognize on-air meteorologists for their sound delivery of weather information to the general public. Among radio and television meteorologists, the AMS Seal of Approval is sought as a mark of distinction. To date, the Society has awarded more than 1,400 Seals of Approval.

How does a broadcast meteorologist obtain the Seal of Approval?

The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. If the applicant meets these criteria they are awarded the AMS Seal of Approval and can display the Seal on the air. All current Sealholders may retain and display their Seals as long as they pay their membership and renewal fees each year and complete certain professional development requirements every five years.

How do these two programs differ?

The main difference between the two programs is education and the exam. To apply for the CBM, applicants must hold a bachelor’s or higher degree in atmospheric science or meteorology (or the equivalent) from an accredited college/university. Current AMS Sealholders (those that earned the Seal prior to January 1, 2005 ) are not required to meet this criteria. These Sealholders may qualify for the CBM designation if they pass the written exam. All CBM applicants must pass the written exam to earn the CBM designation. "
Link



Alright fair enough, I'll admit I assumed the AMS approval required you to have a MET degree.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
LinkDamaging winds?...how does That happen?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
Quoting Patrap:
..one can almost taste da doom
LOLOLOL i was thinking the same thing this morning pat lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.



Good morning Jeff,

More importantly, if you look at the upper left corner of your image this is an upper level system that once it reaches the Gulf Coast, should cut off and then develop into a broad surface cold core low. ( Non Tropical ) The NWS still thinks the severe threat here in CFl will be low and will remain further South. Some decent rain for most but nothing that should cause the rivers and lake to over fill where people will be boating in the streets of CFL. There will be some heavy pockets for sure. I think the convection you see building in the GOF is an entirely completely different entity altogether.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, this is what they had her doing with Houston Texans cheerleaders





Best post of the day. Thanks Rita!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Ooh, I have a SEE TEXT!!! Possibility of small hail and winds and a 5% categorical for plain severe! First time in a while for that!


this event looks like it wants to spread up the east coast.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
I would say where the SPC has the slight risk is where a moderate risk maybe issued so S FL watchout!




Ooh, I have a SEE TEXT!!! Possibility of small hail and winds and a 5% categorical for plain severe! First time in a while for that!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Many TV mets in this area repeat the mantra that "we don't get the big tornadoes that they get in the Midwest and the Plains states. Ours are mostly weak, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes with summer thunderstorms and they last only for a minute or two."

This is a classic example of generalizing. In truth, Florida can get violent and deadly tornadoes which can compete with those in the Midwest when conditions come together just right, as may possibly happen this weekend. But it is just as likely that the necessary setup for that will not develop.

As you said, the backing off on mentioning severe Wx potential is mainly because of the lack of certainty, which in turn is in part due to the lack of hard data for observation at this point. For instance, the low center has not even formed yet upstream. But I digress..

The tornado potential in Florida is often understated, which is part of the reason that those in the general public are often completely taken by surprise here when potentially deadly twisters do in fact touch down. Another reason for this is the tendency in the mind to associate Florida with hurricanes, thus canceling out any association with tornadoes. "Tornadoes happen in Oklahoma, not Florida." This is the same principle as the idea that earthquakes happen in California, not the mid Mississippi valley (New Madrid fault system), where river floods from heavy rains happen instead. You get the picture. ;-)



I completely agree with you on this, oh and check this out from the NWS:


HERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HELICITIES
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


In my opinion, helicity is among the mos important factors to watch regarding tornadoes touching down, it seems to be often overlooked, but it forecast to be quite high, that being said we certainly cannot rule out tornadoes. I've consistently observe the strength of helicity make or break tornado events. You may sometimes see what appears to be a great environment for tornado development, and you may get rotating super cells that never produce tornadoes, this is often due to helicity being too low.


I remember the local tornado outbreak around the Tampa Bay area last spring, overall bulk shear values weren't impressive enough for significant tornadoes, as they rarely are, but helicity was very impressive, and we had a stout cold pocket aloft and a very moist air mass combined with impressive upper divergence from the deep digging trough.


Several tornadoes touched down in my county, and 1 passed within a half mile from my house,I got 75 mph RFD gusts from the meso that did damage in my neighborhood and snapped the power poles behind my house knocking the power out for a while. We got nearly 4 inches of rain from just that cell and just over 9 inches for the whole day.



That was a very impressive storm system, I doubt the impacts from this system will match that of last Spring around here, but we shall see. Because of the fact that confidence is low with this event we can't rule out a severe event that is worse than expected.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
..one can almost taste da doom
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127367
new one for south Florida.............................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-210600-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1052 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS MAINLY THIS MORNING...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATE TONIGHT...AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
AND GUSTY WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS
ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS.

WIND: ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

FLOODING: ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
FORECAST, CONDITIONS COULD BE MOST FAVORABLE LATER ON SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. FORECAST DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FURTHER REFINED, SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM MARCO ISLAND TO EVERGLADES
CITY AS WATER LEVEL REACH BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE REGULAR HIGH
TIDE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST BEACHES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.


6" is my prediction as it seems when we get this type of systems coming across the Gulf we tend to get a lot more rain than forecasted due to the deep tropical moisture that has moved in. For instance last year same type of set up the end of last March CPC had us under 2 to 3" across FL and we in C FL in some cases had over a foot of rain. I had 6.63" that day and I think Jedkins said he had between 5 & 9 inches and nearly a foot over the 3 day span. So my point is these Gulf systems usually end up giving us a lot more than what's actually predicted.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.

I'm not, actually. I'm judging based upon her posted resume, website and current job. There is no mention of a degree anywhere (on KHOU's site, her site, or anywhere else I've found her info). If someone was a TV weather personality, and had a degree... You'd be sure to post it.

Here is an excerpt from the AMS website regarding the seal of approval (bolded emphasis is mine):

"What is the AMS Seal of Approval?

The AMS Seal of Approval was launched in 1957 as a way to recognize on-air meteorologists for their sound delivery of weather information to the general public. Among radio and television meteorologists, the AMS Seal of Approval is sought as a mark of distinction. To date, the Society has awarded more than 1,400 Seals of Approval.

How does a broadcast meteorologist obtain the Seal of Approval?

The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. If the applicant meets these criteria they are awarded the AMS Seal of Approval and can display the Seal on the air. All current Sealholders may retain and display their Seals as long as they pay their membership and renewal fees each year and complete certain professional development requirements every five years.

How do these two programs differ?

The main difference between the two programs is education and the exam. To apply for the CBM, applicants must hold a bachelor’s or higher degree in atmospheric science or meteorology (or the equivalent) from an accredited college/university. Current AMS Sealholders (those that earned the Seal prior to January 1, 2005 ) are not required to meet this criteria. These Sealholders may qualify for the CBM designation if they pass the written exam. All CBM applicants must pass the written exam to earn the CBM designation. "
Link
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5869
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
May look something like this.



Storm of the Centuryesque?
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ever hear of GeoMagnetic reversals?...................Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
May look something like this.

oh boy
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
508. NYX
Quoting emcf30:


Trust me, you will get all the warnings from the NWS if they are warranted.


Oh, no doubt about that. But the joke in SF is we often get the warning after the storm has past.
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I would say where the SPC has the slight risk is where a moderate risk maybe issued so S FL watchout!


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Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.


Right!?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.

this surely is something we have to watch very closely come tomorrow, we wished for rain..now we are going to get it..even if its only 3 -4 inches, thats alot in one day huh..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting jeffs713:

When people get their weather from network TV, they aren't looking for in-depth info. They want to know if it is going to rain, if it will be hot/cold, and they want a pretty face to look at. That is it.

Also, if you look at her site, and her resume posted there... There is no mention of degrees that she earned (just two colleges she attended), that she has the AMA seal of approval, and her work history is all around journalism.

So basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more.


Yea, this is what they had her doing with Houston Texans cheerleaders



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

When people get their weather from network TV, they aren't looking for in-depth info. They want to know if it is going to rain, if it will be hot/cold, and they want a pretty face to look at. That is it.

Also, if you look at her site, and her resume posted there... There is no mention of degrees that she earned (just two colleges she attended), that she has the AMA seal of approval, and her work history is all around journalism.

So basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more.



I'm quite sure one wouldn't get the AMS seal of approval without a MET degree buddy, just saying.


Don't judge based on someones appearance.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.


6" of rain is a LOT, and isn't forecast with this storm. 2-4" is more likely.

The storms gathering in the central GOM have *nothing* to do with the low forming. The Low is expected to form in the *western* GOM, not the central section, and the front that is supposed to provide genesis for the low is still over north central TX.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5869
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Many TV mets in this area repeat the mantra that "we don't get the big tornadoes that they get in the Midwest and the Plains states. Ours are mostly weak, EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes with summer thunderstorms and they last only for a minute or two."

This is a classic example of generalizing. In truth, Florida can get violent and deadly tornadoes which can compete with those in the Midwest when conditions come together just right, as may possibly happen this weekend. But it is just as likely that the necessary setup for that will not develop.

As you said, the backing off on mentioning severe Wx potential is mainly because of the lack of certainty, which in turn is in part due to the lack of hard data for observation at this point. For instance, the low center has not even formed yet upstream. But I digress..

The tornado potential in Florida is often understated, which is part of the reason that those in the general public are often completely taken by surprise here when potentially deadly twisters do in fact touch down. Another reason for this is the tendency in the mind to associate Florida with hurricanes, thus canceling out any association with tornadoes. "Tornadoes happen in Oklahoma, not Florida." This is the same principle as the idea that earthquakes happen in California, not the mid Mississippi valley (New Madrid fault system), where river floods from heavy rains happen instead. You get the picture. ;-)



I completely agree with you on this, oh and check this out from the NWS:


HERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HELICITIES
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


In my opinion, helicity is among the mos important factors to watch regarding tornadoes touching down, it seems to be often overlooked, but it forecast to be quite high, that being said we certainly cannot rule out tornadoes.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7223
Dewpoint is 73 with a temp of 81 right now here north of Orlando. This system will have a temendous amount of moisture to work with across FL. I am will to be that there will be a corridor of 6" of rain across C FL as this low comes across. I also believe there will be numerous supercells forming as early as tonight across C & S FL. I also a see a moderate risk being issued for mainly S & FL as they may bear the brunt of the severe but C FL may need to watch this as well just in case this low comes across N FL instead. Look and you can see the storms beginning to gather here in the C Gulf maybe near where the Surface low will form tomorrow.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


I don't understand how that is allowed for news tv people.

When people get their weather from network TV, they aren't looking for in-depth info. They want to know if it is going to rain, if it will be hot/cold, and they want a pretty face to look at. That is it.

Also, if you look at her site, and her resume posted there... There is no mention of degrees that she earned (just two colleges she attended), that she has the AMA seal of approval, and her work history is all around journalism.

So basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5869
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks for this, we need all the warnings and updates we can get this weekend


Trust me, you will get all the warnings from the NWS if they are warranted.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Agreed... but I don't think she has a met degree. (or at least, I couldn't find where she does)


I don't understand how that is allowed for news tv people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
May look something like this.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

ANZ338-340-345-CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108- NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179-211000-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
944 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST LATE DAY SUNDAY INTO
MON MORNING SHOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN DURING THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY
FROM NYC EAST. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
OF BANDS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY...SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT MAINLY URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
DEPENDING ON INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting reedzone:
12Z NAM

33 hours..
Squall line forms near Tampa, FL


One of those embedded squall lines in the rain.. Kind of dangerous. Nam has a stronger system.. Looks like we are heading back to the original idea of a stronger Gulf Low, which means more instability for Severe Storms.
thanks for this, we need all the warnings and updates we can get this weekend
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
12Z NAM

33 hours..
Squall line forms near Tampa, FL


One of those embedded squall lines in the rain.. Kind of dangerous. Nam has a stronger system.. Looks like we are heading back to the original idea of a stronger Gulf Low, which means more instability for Severe Storms.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
558 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201600 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
558 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THE SEABREEZE
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES INLAND
AND SOUTH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH THROUGH LEE COUNTY. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

COLSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


lol. she is good to look at though

Agreed... but I don't think she has a met degree. (or at least, I couldn't find where she does)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5869
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
If the low were to take a more Northerly route and closer to the upper support, I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk in FL for Saturday.


Ehh, Won't be surprising.. but I think I see them just raising the slight risk area north to Jacksonville, with upping from 15% to 30% prob from Tampa to Daytona Beach.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Rain clouds are building here along the gulf and a real nice breeze along with them, someone is going to get a good rain probably east of us here along the gulf coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting jeffs713:

Most of which is BS, too.
yeah i agree..but it would be amazing if it happened..would we have kangaroo's now in new york? lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't know if you guys noticed but for the past couple of day GFS has been predicting a TS or TD in the SW Caribbean I know I don't trust it yet but if the model continues like this for a good long while we may be looking at our first true tropical storm or depression

06Z


00Z


18Z


12Z

The GFS tries to spin up the Columbian heat low EVERY year. That said, those models don't look terribly organized or strong, so I don't think it will amount to anything - ESPECIALLY 384 hours out.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5869
Coming down HEAVY right now, with thunder overhead.
What is going on?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the low were to take a more Northerly route and closer to the upper support, I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk in FL for Saturday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


I asked Chita Johnson on ch. 11 on her facebook page about the cap and the dry mid levels, she never responed. Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)


lol. she is good to look at though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
water temps down there are pretty warm alright

yep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
big rain storm for the northeast!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36651

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.