Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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Quoting sunlinepr:

Why hello there, Pineapple Express.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting jeffs713:

This. I've never liked Gene Norman. It was almost funny watching his coverage of Hurricane Ike when put next to Neil Frank and Channel 2's met.


lmao, it was embarrassing. He kept talking over Neil Frank and Neil was being cut off and was looking aggravated.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



That sounds like a likely scenario to me. Some here are quick to forget the past and act like this system will be a rare event. However I don't see anything in the forecasts that suggests this is a rare event. We normally get at least a few of these during a typical Winter into Spring. However it was much drier than average this time around this would be ths first time. But even during the driest winter spring periods, we always get at least 1 event like this, normally more than one though. During El Nino we can get a couple of these every week, lol.


Anyways, I'm actually surprised at how far south models are wanting to track the surface reflection. In general these systems tend to pull northeast, so even though currently models have backed off on the low being farther north and thus less severe weather for us, it would be much more typical for the low to end up a bit further north and thus the severe threat stretching further north as well. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm giving it a about a 40% chance of being far enough north for their to be a severe threat extending farther north past Tampa into Brooksville area. Typically the warm advection boundary tends to lift farther north than models anticipate. For example, I think the GFS is showing too low of a dew point forecast for Central Florida. I have seen many times with strong Spring fronts where dew points are forecast to peak in the upper 60's but they end up climbing into the 70's instead.
If this current feature in the gulf ends up being the warm front the low snags, we can assume the low will form at that boundary or just north of it.... So I am betting the low forms due west of Tampa in the central gulf and moves NE.
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Quoting hydrus:
One might think that there would be some severe weather over New England with this huge dip in the jet...500 mb at 96 hours..


Kinda looks like an Omega Block.(I know it isn't)
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually the guy Gene Norman who she is under, sucks. That Guy is horrible.

This. I've never liked Gene Norman. It was almost funny watching his coverage of Hurricane Ike when put next to Neil Frank and Channel 2's met.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting Tribucanes:
Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.

Uh... HUH? Who are you to be calling me out?

First off, I made my comments about her based on several posts by others. She was already a topic on the blog. Reading context is kinda important. Secondly, I'm basing my judgement upon her website, and her resume. I never watch network news for a reason. I never called into doubt the seriousness of her work, or how she handles herself. I called into doubt her meteorological credentials, as she does not, by all public appearances, have a met degree.

So, Mr. two-post-I-just-joined-2-days-ago... Who are you again to be calling me out?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It looks like a weak warm front has developed stretching from the central gulf to Lake Okeechobee. If it has, this boundary will probably remain in this same area through late tonight when the low approaches it from the west and pulls it northward.

It's becoming clear what sort of event this is shaping up to be, and we have seen it many times (I'd say almost on a yearly basis). The end result is -usually- a lot of rain and a couple severe storms.

The first element of the storm to affect the peninsula will be a warm front forming over central Florida (probably consisting of the same boundary I have noted above.) Expect a couple supercells out ahead of the warm front and moderate rains and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front advects north across the area.

I could see this occurring in the morning hours followed by a generally dry afternoon. Meanwhile we could be watching a mcs develop in the central gulf...

The big question today is where the center of the low will pass. The severe weather will remain in the warm sector to the SE of the center, so the intensity of the second batch of storms to occur saturday night will have everything to do with the eventual track of the low. If you end up south of the center you can probably expect a strike from a very powerful and long-lasting squall line with hail and a tornado threat. Areas north of the center and along the path of the low will receive steady to heavy rains and gusty winds.

Isolated showers will probably linger through Sunday morning as moisture wraps around to the western periphery of the circulation.

---

ok. I think that sums up what we know so far pretty well :)



That sounds like a likely scenario to me. Some here are quick to forget the past and act like this system will be a rare event. However I don't see anything in the forecasts that suggests this is a rare event. We normally get at least a few of these during a typical Winter into Spring. However it was much drier than average this time around this would be ths first time. But even during the driest winter spring periods, we always get at least 1 event like this, normally more than one though. During El Nino we can get a couple of these every week, lol.


Anyways, I'm actually surprised at how far south models are wanting to track the surface reflection. In general these systems tend to pull northeast, so even though currently models have backed off on the low being farther north and thus less severe weather for us, it would be much more typical for the low to end up a bit further north and thus the severe threat stretching further north as well. I'm not saying it will happen, but I'm giving it a about a 40% chance of being far enough north for their to be a severe threat extending farther north past Tampa into Brooksville area. Typically the warm advection boundary tends to lift farther north than models anticipate. For example, I think the GFS is showing too low of a dew point forecast for Central Florida. I have seen many times with strong Spring fronts where dew points are forecast to peak in the upper 60's but they end up climbing into the 70's instead.


BTW, this doesn't mean I'm panicking and saying a moderate risk needs to be added for us and this will be a deadly out break, I'm just saying that people should be aware that it is possible for there to be a higher severe threat for us than the current model consensus suggests. If the low tracks further north the period of time for destabilization will be longer and severe risk higher. There are some pretty impressive out puts by the models but I will stress that i don't see anything suggesting this will be like a big spring outbreak in the southern plains. I don't see evidence to support that. I do certainly see plenty of evidence to support at least a chance of severe though. You can't ignore the cold pocket aloft that will be moving over head, impressive jet energy, good upper divergence, and impressive helicity.
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One might think that there would be some severe weather over New England with this huge dip in the jet...500 mb at 96 hours..
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.


Actually the guy Gene Norman who she is under, sucks. That Guy is horrible.
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I take that back, it was more like a bull's eye of snow (from NWS Green Bay's co-op observers):

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Severe TS warning West of Lufkin TX.....already?



bust the cap
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Weak warm front in Gulf...
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Take the giant cup of hateraid and put it down. Do you know her personally? Have you gotten reports of her being bad at her job or reports of self-serving behaviors about her? Maybe your ego thinks you should be in her spot. Pride of life gotcha by the tail I think Jeffs713. In a bad situation when life threatening weather is predicted I don't think anyone broadcasting takes it anything less than very serious. Curious too that far more men are in her position, and many probably very handsome, and yet you chose her.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
roflmao. Quote of the day


lol
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Some low over Fl!
Yes..Low in 48 hours..
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I agree. To assume someone isn't intelligent enough to be a real meteorologist because of being female and blonde just isn't right.
roflmao. Quote of the day
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Live webcam via Wunderground of fresh snow on the ground in east-central Wisconsin. Up to 3" fell in a narrow swath overnight.

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Dewpoint Temperature


Relative Humidity


CAPE

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Severe TS warning West of Lufkin TX.....already?

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Theta-E now...( at two meters )Theta tomorrow night.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.



I agree. To assume someone isn't intelligent enough to be a real meteorologist because of being female and blonde just isn't right.
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Quoting hydrus:
Some decent blocking over Greenland..
Some low over Fl!
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Dew points over Florida now.Dewpoints over Florida tomorrow night.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.


Hi Nea the worst of the severe could be down by you guys tomorrow so stay safe buddy!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
It looks like a weak warm front has developed stretching from the central gulf to Lake Okeechobee. If it has, this boundary will probably remain in this same area through late tonight when the low approaches it from the west and pulls it northward.

It's becoming clear what sort of event this is shaping up to be, and we have seen it many times (I'd say almost on a yearly basis). The end result is -usually- a lot of rain and a couple severe storms.

The first element of the storm to affect the peninsula will be a warm front forming over central Florida (probably consisting of the same boundary I have noted above.) Expect a couple supercells out ahead of the warm front and moderate rains and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front advects north across the area.

I could see this occurring in the morning hours followed by a generally dry afternoon. Meanwhile we could be watching a mcs develop in the central gulf...

The big question today is where the center of the low will pass. The severe weather will remain in the warm sector to the SE of the center, so the intensity of the second batch of storms to occur saturday night will have everything to do with the eventual track of the low. If you end up south of the center you can probably expect a strike from a very powerful and long-lasting squall line with hail and a tornado threat. Areas north of the center and along the path of the low will receive steady to heavy rains and gusty winds.

Isolated showers will probably linger through Sunday morning as moisture wraps around to the western periphery of the circulation.

---

ok. I think that sums up what we know so far pretty well :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...


Maybe it's the company then, all the info is public on the web. Pics, etc...as far as what is said, that's life, people talk, whether you, me, anyone like it or not, called freedom of speech.
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Quoting jeffs713:

6" of rain in a single day, regardless of how dry it is, will give you about 4-5" of runoff that doesn't do much for the drought.

What you need to break a drought like yours is 1-2" inches of steady rain (as in over 4-5 hours) 3-4 times per week for 2-3 weeks. That will break a drought in D2+. 6" of rain one shot won't do anything, and will produce lots of flash flooding and ponding on roadways until the drainage system can catch up.


We may not even get 6" was just saying from experience that has been the case with many of these Gulf storms. It does though look we are turing the corner with this event. As some of the long rain models bring in another cut off feature from TX to FL. So TX across the Gulf Coast & FL could really be settling in a wet pattern down the road something to watch. Even the guy near Austin just hang in there buddy more rain is coming for you guys to although you may have to wait 7 to 10 days.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting RitaEvac:


You don't have to explain yourself, I know what we were discussing.

I know you do. Its everyone else that I'm explaining for. :)

Quoting Neapolitan:
I hear you. I've lived in places with excellent TV mets who were far more than just "weather readers" filling in until a spot opened up at the anchor desk. For instance, in Miami in the 80s and 90s we had Don Noe and Bryan Norcross (among several others). But I've lived in other ares where we weren't so lucky. Los Angeles, for example, has some grossly underqualified TV weather people, both male and female. There's nothing wrong with looking great--I wish I did, you know?. But when these people are on camera, it's not about the weather; it's about them. And that does a huge disservice, I think...


Exactly. That's my point.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...

I can't speak for anyone else, but taken out of context, my comments are definitely sexist. Taken in context, and especially with what I just posted a few moments ago... I don't see them as sexist in any way, just how the networks operate.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting jeffs713:

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.
I hear you. I've lived in places with excellent TV mets who were far more than just "weather readers" filling in until a spot opened up at the anchor desk. For instance, in Miami in the 80s and 90s we had Don Noe and Bryan Norcross (among several others). But I've lived in other ares where we weren't so lucky. Los Angeles, for example, has some grossly underqualified TV weather people, both male and female. There's nothing wrong with looking great--I wish I did, you know?. But when these people are on camera, it's not about the weather; it's about them. And that does a huge disservice, I think...
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Some decent blocking over Greenland..
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Quoting jeffs713:

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.


You don't have to explain yourself, I know what we were discussing.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!

6" of rain in a single day, regardless of how dry it is, will give you about 4-5" of runoff that doesn't do much for the drought.

What you need to break a drought like yours is 1-2" inches of steady rain (as in over 4-5 hours) 3-4 times per week for 2-3 weeks. That will break a drought in D2+. 6" of rain one shot won't do anything, and will produce lots of flash flooding and ponding on roadways until the drainage system can catch up.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting StormTracker2K:


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!


With summer heat approaching, that is not good. In fact when you don't get spring rains, that is usually a sign of things to come. It could get worse there, so don't just think rains are gonna turn on like a switch
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Be sure to pass the info on Bad weather to those who may not know its coming.


The elderly, shut-ins, etc.

Be pro-active.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


????????????
"Maybe she's....clueless (she's a blond)"

"...she is good to look at though"

"very" (followed by headshot)

"basically... she is a pretty face, and not much more"

(Not to mention the images of her with the cheerleaders.)

I'm not trying to start anything or pick on anyone. It's just that I have a mom, a daughter, sisters, female cousins, nieces, and sister-in-laws, and being around them has made me aware that most of them don't normally find this kind of banter entertaining or helpful, especially where their profession or professionalism is concerned. That's all...
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12Z NAM split it's previous tracks over Florida, little lower in pressure.


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540. 7544
hmm local news saying up to 60 mph winds and strong severe storms for sf this weekend sounds ;like a ts watch lol . but you never know stranger things have happen in the tropics still intersting tho
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for our Boaters and fishermen................................
GMZ870-873-876-202115-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.

SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

SUNDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

MONDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
Quoting Neapolitan:
The AMS Seal of Approval program--which ceased in 2008--didn't require a degree of any type; just "proven" expertise in weather broadcasting.

That being said, I find it pretty distasteful that the person in question (Chita Johnson) is being subjected to sexist comments regarding her looks, hair color, or ability. IMO, those type of comments have no place here on WU.

I had no intention at implying any sexist comments. I can say the same thing for many male mets that you see on TV - they are there to look good. Some of them are very capable, and well-degreed and incredibly intelligent. Some, on the other hand, have more of a focus on broadcasting than they do on meteorology. That focus on broadcasting is what I was pointing out.

Also, while I am not personally sexist, there are many in the public that are quite sexist, and care less for content and more for looks. THAT is the kind of market that non-degreed weather readers are hired for.

I do not personally watch network TV news - it is depressing, and any content they have is crammed into 30 seconds and loaded with hype. I have found that with a few exceptions, TV weather is rather vague and inaccurate for actual weather events. They are great for day-to-day stuff, but whenever a major event comes down the pipeline... the normal "weather readers" give way to more experienced mets. Such is the case with KHOU. They've had a succession of "weather readers", but whenever something tropical is coming our way, they bring in Neil Frank, who is an incredibly capable met that happened to run the NHC a while back.

THAT is my point. Not that I'm being sexist, or that she is incapable. Just that non-degreed "meteorologists" aren't hired to interpret the weather, but rather read it.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5891
Quoting RitaEvac:
So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?


For one FL isn't going under as it's the driest i can remember here. If we do get let's say 6" of rain their will likely be no flooding as most lakes are extremely low. Almost the situation you guys had last year in TX. The ponds in my complex that are usually 12 feet deep are empty!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
It's a comfy 72F here currently..

Weather Station - report
Uptown, New Orleans
Elevation
20 ft

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Quoting RitaEvac:
So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?


tomorrow 18Z, already have my row boat tuned up.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Is hot by you guys too?
good morning pat, yes and very humid
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42120
The model guidance shows the front pushing thru NOLA before the cyclogenesis occurs, so we should only get strong winds behind it as it scoots eastward Sat-Sunday.


Short term...


Cold front will continue to move eastward toward the area
today...and across the area overnight. Most model solutions have
delayed the upper low cutting off until the daytime hours on
Saturday...which will have the effect of delaying the development
of a strong surface low along the cold front until after the front
passes to the east of the area. Will keep chance probability of precipitation in the
forecast for overnight into Saturday...with values being lower
than in previous forecasts. Will also note that latest trends
indicate current forecast probability of precipitation may still be too high. Thunder will
be very limited with this system...and mainly confined to the
overnight hours tonight. Precipitation will move out of the area
by sunset Saturday. Breezy to windy conditions will move into the
area Saturday afternoon through Sunday as low pressure gets
cranked up over the eastern Gulf. Temperatures today will remain
several degrees above normal...but the cold front and low pressure
will bring cooler weather for several days. Expect below normal
temperatures...which we have not seen much of in the last 2
months...for Saturday and Sunday. 35
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Quoting Patrap:
..morn 2K, LargoFl'


Is hot by you guys too?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:


this event looks like it wants to spread up the east coast.


Sure does. If I get a chance to maybe I can finally submit some severe weather reports as a spotter... It's quite funny that right after I got certified as a trained spotter, the area has one of the dryest and nicest periods of weather in memory...
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So when is Florida going under water and blowing away?
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..morn 2K, LargoFl'
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Storm of the Centuryesque?



Highly doubt to that degree but the potential exists for a similar event. Mainly posting the image for a visual representation of what we may see this weekend.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron