Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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Quoting LargoFl:
does that put tampa bay in the heavy wind and rain section if the low moves in north of us??


I have a decent severe weather threat Tampa to St. Augustine, southward. Would not surprise me at the most to see a 30% prob going across the central part of Florida. Since the Low is forecast to move further north, deepening more, this should connect with the upper level disturbance. Looks like we're heading back to what we were thinking Wednesday. Probably not a Moderate Risk, but 30% is rare down here.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Showers and storms are starting to pop all over the peninsula
alot of couds over head, moving to the northeast i'd say, not moving very fast though, and extremely humid here right now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting reedzone:


I have the low tracking just south of the big bend, north of Tampa, exiting Jacksonville.
does that put tampa bay in the heavy wind and rain section if the low moves in north of us??
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I'm thinking the low will track across the State between Brooksville to Ocala.


I have the low tracking just south of the big bend, north of Tampa, exiting Jacksonville.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Showers and storms are starting to pop all over the peninsula
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It keeps going and going and going... After another 18hour hiatus, a new ATCF Update
31.3n58.2w 31.0n57.4w 30.7n56.8w 30.3n56.3w 29.6n55.5w 29.4n54.3w 29.1n52.9w 29.3n51.0w
91L is heading slightly north of Eastward, and the previous update's prediction models

MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- SJU is PuertoRico -- BDA is Bermuda
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Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

..click image for Loop.

ZOOM is available

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Quoting Patrap:


That link iz on the ESL by LSU WAVCIS page
Gracias.
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That link iz on the ESL by LSU WAVCIS page
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Quoting Patrap:
GOM 120 Hour Surface Loop Current Forecast Model HYCOM

Great link Pat.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Best to just split the difference from the last three model runs. That would place the low center moving onshore around Crystal River, FL, some 60NM north of Tampa Bay.

The GFS will probably do a little more shifting too before all is said and done.



Yeah I'm thinking the low will track across the State between Brooksville to Ocala.
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Since the NWS has been so far off on these maps for SE Texas, maybe this time it will work out the other way :D

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Quoting FLWaterFront:


I assume those are his TOR-CON values?

If so, he'll probably wind up increasing the ones over parts of the FL peninsula in his outlook by tomorrow.


Yes, its his Torcon Index
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Quoting LargoFl:
interesting thought there, what would happen, if what some say( and i dont believe this for a minute) but what would happen if the poles ..reversed?


Not much actually. Anyone using a compass would be SOL. Even with a weakened magnetic field, it is still more than enough to deflect the solar wind and most high energy particles. The smallest the Earth's magnetic field has ever been according to geological records is approximately 3 Earth radii. And even if the magnetic field completely collapsed (which has never and never will happen as long as we have a molten core in motion), our thick atmosphere would be more than sufficient shield until the field became re-established.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Dr. Greg Forbes..updated and added some areas..

Friday April 20

AR south - 2
LA west, central - 2
MS west-central - 2
TX east of a line from Texarkana to Laredo - 2
Other areas - 1 or less

Saturday April 21
AL extreme southeast - less than 2
DE south - less than 2
FL peninsula - 4
FL panhandle - 2 or less
GA central, south - less than 2
MD southeast - less than 2
NC - less than 2
SC - less than 2
VA south-central, southeast - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less


I assume those are his TOR-CON values?

If so, he'll probably wind up increasing the ones over parts of the FL peninsula in his outlook by tomorrow.
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Dr. Greg Forbes..updated and added some areas..

Friday April 20

AR south - 2
LA west, central - 2
MS west-central - 2
TX east of a line from Texarkana to Laredo - 2
Other areas - 1 or less

Saturday April 21
AL extreme southeast - less than 2
DE south - less than 2
FL peninsula - 4
FL panhandle - 2 or less
GA central, south - less than 2
MD southeast - less than 2
NC - less than 2
SC - less than 2
VA south-central, southeast - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less
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Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.


Best to just split the difference from the last three model runs. That would place the low center moving onshore around Crystal River, FL, some 60NM north of Tampa Bay.

The GFS will probably do a little more shifting too before all is said and done.
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Model Diagnostic Discussion

Excerpts:

...WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS ENERGETIC IMPULSE COMPARABLY UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF DAY 2...WHEN THE NAM BEGINS TO DRAW THE WAVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE
GFS AND GFS PARALLEL ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE
INCORPORATION OF THE WAVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
WILL RELY ON THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE ECMWF...BOLSTERED BY THE
CONSISTENCY OF ITS SOLUTION.



...COMPOSITE VORTEX BOMBING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: ECMWF

THE NAM IS DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE ECMWF WITH THE MATURE
CYCLONE. THE GFS IS NORTH OF THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. HERE AGAIN...WILL RELY ON THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.
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TODAY'S FUKUSHIMA UPDATE

MSNBC: Fukushima radiation “much higher than expected” says biologist — Negative effects to happen quicker than at Chernobyl… and be worse

Scientists are focusing on Japan’s Fukushima area after a study published this week found an alarming development at another nuclear disaster site — Chernobyl.
The proportion of female birds has fallen off since the 1986 disaster at Chernobyl, the study found [...]
[Study co-author Tim Mousseau, a University of South Carolina biologist is] expecting even worse results at Fukushima.



Fukushima Investigation: “Within one day complete meltdown and melt through occurred” — “There is no way that gov’t did not know this”- VIDEO


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1pHimEuNpM&featur e=player_embedded#!


Gundersen: Cesium-134 and -137 detected in Southern California pollen sample — “When you find them both together that’s a Fukushima signature” (VIDEO)
Published: April 19th, 2012 at 12:41 pm ET


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Looks like fun:
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Timing with the GFS has come in line more with the ECMWF.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm not saying it makes her a great forecaster, but clearly she is at least a capable one. I just don't like how many of us who are not professionals (and if you are I apologize) are calling her out when we have no right to.


+10000000000000..this blog has become somewhat bully lately
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:



down to 1000mb this run, further N.
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GOM 120 Hour Surface Loop Current Forecast Model HYCOM

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Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.


I think the Low will take a track similar to the 12z NAM, South of Ocala, FL.
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3 km helicity map at 36 hours..NAM.. Helicity map in 84 hours..
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Come tonight and morning the situ will show itself as we can see some signs already in the Mid Gulf.

Note the frontal storms in Texas too.





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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If this current feature in the gulf ends up being the warm front the low snags, we can assume the low will form at that boundary or just north of it.... So I am betting the low forms due west of Tampa in the central gulf and moves NE.



I agree, that is what I am thinking will happen. I also stick with that rainfall has the potential to be quite a bit higher in some spots than the models are expecting. I say this mainly because actual PWAT's and dew points frequently exceed model out puts in Central and South Florida for rain events. Of course it takes a lot more for heavy rain than just high moisture, which will ultimately depend on the evolution of our Low.

But still, that's why I mention potential. We rarely get uniform QPF in Florida rainfall events even with low pressure systems. Generally some places get less than expected while others end up getting much more. Its due to the fact that models have a hard time forecasting the influences of low level features which dominate weather the further you get into the tropics. There are frequently low level, localized features that affect weather events in Florida that often go completely unnoticed by models. Its just really hard to integrate that sort of data. Weather forecasting here is very intense because of its difficulty, which also makes it so exciting :)
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Storms are really increasing across Texas!

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Also starts the severe wx tonight across the FL penisula. Looks like things are going to pop across here fast later this afternoon and evening then continuing to increase throughout the night.

That must be ahead of the front from the SW flow we have been having coming off the warm gulf.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:


I'm just glad we're finally going to get some good rain up here out of this storm.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Just saying Jeffy that your choice of targets seems to speak volumes. That's all have a nice day. Wonder how many times you've been judged by just a FEW facts? Did you enjoy it?

Really? My "choice of targets" was the discussion already happening on the blog. If the person brought up was another met without a degree that was male, I'd be criticizing them, too.

I've been judged by just a few facts many times. And I didn't enjoy it, either. That said, I'm making a PERSONAL judgement based on the facts available to me. If you have something disputing those facts, show them. I'd love to see them and be proven wrong.

If you are trying to troll me, congrats, you got me riled up. Not because you are calling me out, per se, but because you are accusing me of being sexist, which could not be further from the mark. Criticizing what I have to say is one thing, and is something you are entitled to. Criticizing me as a person is another thing entirely, and crosses a line at which I take great offense.
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12Z GFS 6am Sun. morning:

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Quoting jeffs713:

Which only states that the broadcast met can present the weather in a competent and technically correct manner. Nothing more. The AMS seal of approval does not state the broadcast met can interpret a hodograph, or explain what increased helicity means, calculate lapse rates, or teach a layperson how to read a sounding chart or meteogram. It means they can take a weather forecast, and present the information to the public in a technically correct, and easily understood manner.

From the AMS website (again):

"The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. "

I'm not saying it makes her a great forecaster, but clearly she is at least a capable one. I just don't like how many of us who are not professionals (and if you are I apologize) are calling her out when we have no right to.
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Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.


Also starts the severe wx tonight across the FL penisula. Looks like things are going to pop across here fast later this afternoon and evening then continuing to increase throughout the night.

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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1046 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1032 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

She has an AMS seal of approval.

Which only states that the broadcast met can present the weather in a competent and technically correct manner. Nothing more. The AMS seal of approval does not state the broadcast met can interpret a hodograph, or explain what increased helicity means, calculate lapse rates, or teach a layperson how to read a sounding chart or meteogram. It means they can take a weather forecast, and present the information to the public in a technically correct, and easily understood manner.

From the AMS website (again):

"The Society awards the Seal of Approval to broadcast meteorologists who meet established criteria for scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather presentations. In addition to meeting the professional membership requirements for the Society, broadcasters must submit three examples of their work, which are evaluated by a national board of examiners to assess technical competence, informational value, explanatory value, and communication skills. "
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5881
Just saying Jeffy that your choice of targets seems to speak volumes. That's all have a nice day. Wonder how many times you've been judged by just a FEW facts? Did you enjoy it?
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12Z GFS has a huge shift to the north, now crosses the big bend of Florida.. If the northern shift continues, we will deff see the severe weather risk not only increasing, but further north.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Multi TS warnings near Lufkin now
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I completely agree with you on this, oh and check this out from the NWS:


HERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HELICITIES
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


In my opinion, helicity is among the mos important factors to watch regarding tornadoes touching down, it seems to be often overlooked, but it forecast to be quite high, that being said we certainly cannot rule out tornadoes. I've consistently observe the strength of helicity make or break tornado events. You may sometimes see what appears to be a great environment for tornado development, and you may get rotating super cells that never produce tornadoes, this is often due to helicity being too low.


I remember the local tornado outbreak around the Tampa Bay area last spring, overall bulk shear values weren't impressive enough for significant tornadoes, as they rarely are, but helicity was very impressive, and we had a stout cold pocket aloft and a very moist air mass combined with impressive upper divergence from the deep digging trough.


Several tornadoes touched down in my county, and 1 passed within a half mile from my house,I got 75 mph RFD gusts from the meso that did damage in my neighborhood and snapped the power poles behind my house knocking the power out for a while. We got nearly 4 inches of rain from just that cell and just over 9 inches for the whole day.



That was a very impressive storm system, I doubt the impacts from this system will match that of last Spring around here, but we shall see. Because of the fact that confidence is low with this event we can't rule out a severe event that is worse than expected.


Your insight is both unusual and, in my opinion, spot on.

Note too that Florida weather dynamics with regard to tornado potential during severe weather outbreaks is fertile ground for a PHd thesis in meteorology.
This is because there may well still be a lot of undiscovered territory there.

It may be just a hunch on my part but it seems to me that the presence of that big Gulf of Mexico is the key link in the chain when it comes to how (relatively) poorly understood the large-scale severe weather outbreaks are in this area. And they don't always have to be so large in scale.

Looking back to April of 1966, when an EF-4 tornado raked across the state from Pinellas County to Brevard County, taking about 11 lives in the process and millions of dollars of property losses, it was not an especially impressive system, if I am recalling it accurately. But clearly there was something in the dynamics that set up over Central Florida on that day which caused such a destructive system to form. My guess is that the helicity was likely the poorly understood factor in that case. The forecast for that day did not indicate a severe weather risk, I believe.

Now one may think that this is understandable in that it was 1966 and so much less was known about the specifics of atmospheric phenomena back then in comparison with today. I would agree with that, in a general sense. On the other hand, when it comes to our little neck of the woods, there is still much yet to learn, I strongly suspect.

One more thing... Imagine if the events of April 4, 1966 were to take place again, in precisely the same area! The devastation from what would be a relatively isolated outbreak could be catastrophic in scale, given the changes in population that have occurred here since then. That storm passed right over the USF campus, for instance.

Food for thought?
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Quoting jeffs713:

Uh... HUH? Who are you to be calling me out?

First off, I made my comments about her based on several posts by others. She was already a topic on the blog. Reading context is kinda important. Secondly, I'm basing my judgement upon her website, and her resume. I never watch network news for a reason. I never called into doubt the seriousness of her work, or how she handles herself. I called into doubt her meteorological credentials, as she does not, by all public appearances, have a met degree.

So, Mr. two-post-I-just-joined-2-days-ago... Who are you again to be calling me out?

She has an AMS seal of approval.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Watch the trough dig south... rapidly. Hey Rita, I think you may be in for it this afternoon!


Good, take some more rain as we will hit a dry streak all the way into next week
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TX radar time, storms are cranking up
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-202300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING
STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST BETWEEN ABOUT 3 PM AND 9 PM AS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES NORTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY
STORMS WHICH FORM ALONG IT.

TODAY`S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AND COIN SIZED HAIL. ANY FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM
CAN PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS...
ANY STORM WHICH FORMS INLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS
OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STORMS. BOATERS SHOULD BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR THE EAST
COAST COULD PRODUCE A WATERSPOUT THAT WOULD AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3 FEET COUPLED WITH AN
APPROACHING NEW MOON TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST...
NEW IGNITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY NEW OR SMOLDERING FIRES WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS UNUSUALLY
FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...TIMING AND
INTENSITY...ANYTIME THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
INTO THIS WEEKEND. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...FORECASTS...IMPACT
WEATHER UPDATES...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH WILL REFINE
THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REPORT ANY
COIN-SIZED HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.
ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY.


$$

CRISTALDI/BOWEN
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Watch the trough dig south... rapidly. Hey Rita, I think you may be in for it this afternoon!
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Day 2

Excerpt:

...CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE TO VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS... SUB-CLOUD LAPSE
RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE STEEP WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT
SPREADS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW
PROBABLY WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH AT LEAST SOME WIND/SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL.



Is that in the Pressolinas?
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11163
Quoting sunlinepr:

Why hello there, Pineapple Express.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.