Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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Take it for what it's worth, which isn't much, but the CPC has released their new 3 month outlook

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first poll concerning the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

">

I choose B.

B.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first poll concerning the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

">

I choose B.

I say C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
"Britain could be facing the coldest May for 100 years, with snow, bitter winds and freezing temperatures putting summer on hold"

The winter weather follows a wet start to April, with the threat of floods and storms to come over the next few days.
The Met Office has issued weather warnings for the South West, London, South East, Wales and the West of England due to flooding on roads and 60mph winds.
Hail storms are expected across the country and it is feared windows could be broken by giant hail, up to 1cm thick. In the north and Scotland temperatures could fall to -2C.

Link

Nothing makes sense anymore.

A lot of persistent rain in the last two-three days. When it's not a drought, it's a flood!


Thanks for flagging it up, Cotillion. It's actually quite funny to read the articles in the 'weather' category on the Telegraph. April 15 and 16 two articles on 'the worst drought since 1976' are published
"Half of Britain is now in drought as the country faces its most severe water shortage since 1976, the Environment Agency warns today.

More than 35%u2009million people are now living in drought-affected areas, with water shortages today declared across the Midlands and South West.

Parts of the country are already drier than they were in the summer of 1976, when Britain experienced its worst drought for more than 100 years."


And three days later it's the coldest May in 100 years plus flooding in April:
"The winter weather follows a wet start to April, with the threat of floods and storms to come over the next few days.

The Met Office has issued weather warnings for the South West, London, South East, Wales and the West of England due to flooding on roads and 60mph winds."


*edit* I just checked that on the Met Office website: no warnings issued! Except for heavy rain in Scotland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first poll concerning the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

">

I choose B.


As do I. B seems reasonable given the warm SSTs and the still present (weak) La Nina conditions.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first poll of 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

I choose B.


I'll go with the safe, C.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Excerpts From Latest Miami NWS Discussion

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
PULLING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CWA. ONE WITH THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.1 INCHES.
SO WILL ALSO ADD HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

SO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER OFFICE IN
MIAMI FLORIDA...AND FROM THE SPC CENTER.



Looks like they are not agreeing with the model runs either.. Interesting how the "officials" are agreeing with the models yet the local weather forecasters aren't... Really tells you something. Again, I believe the EURO is right, strong low moving north of Central Florida, causing a powerful squall line to impact the Peninsula late Saturday night into Sunday morning. GFS and NAM seem to be out of place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My first poll concerning the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

">

I choose B.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
158 ScottLincoln I think people have corrected [trunkmonkey] several times, even provided links to information to understand how/why it is calculated the way it is, yet his rantings about the drought monitor continue.

Yeah, but if ya got a handful of people who don't(overtly)understand the hows&whys behind the DroughtMonitor, there's probably more than a few others who aren't so openly expressing their displeasure; along with newbies and new lurkers who are also puzzled by the DroughtMonitor.
So the "rant"s at least serve to inspire relevant comments that'll be educational for those some.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Excerpts From Latest Miami NWS Discussion

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
PULLING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

SO IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CWA. ONE WITH THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONT. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL BE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.1 INCHES.
SO WILL ALSO ADD HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

SO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER OFFICE IN
MIAMI FLORIDA...AND FROM THE SPC CENTER.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:
I would be interested to hear how this independent weather firm, WeatherAction, came up with that forecast. Even when it was quite clear that we were heading into a warm stretch in April, I do not recall any official forecasts for it to be a near record warm March for the US... and there's a reason for that.
WeatherAction isn't a real forecasting service, but rather a climate change denial site headed by well-known quack Piers Corbyn. He's sort of the Joe Bastardi of England; of, say, a dozen outrageous forecasts, he'll get one right, eight wrong, and the remaining three will land in a gray area. The wrong ones will be forgotten, while the gray ones will be remembered only for their correct component. But the one he got right will be trumpeted loud and long and clear.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13269
Quoting LargoFl:
gee this is going to be something to watch very carefully huh..I am really worried about the high wind possible with this system, hope its not too bad


I am also interested in the possibility of high, non-thunderstorm winds due to this low now forecast to move over Central Florida on Sunday. As I do not recall the last time we actually had a similar low take this projected path, not sure what to expect. Sustained surface winds 30-40 mph for a few hours as the low moves by, or just a breezy day with gusty winds in thunderstorms? What do the computer models show in this regard? A windy, squally day would be a nice change, as long as there is nothing damaging.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
153. As has been said countless times on this blog, SSTs are not the only thing that influences storm formation, and an invest is just that, a system the NHC wants to investigate more. Just because it is an invest doesn't give it any status in terms of tropical cyclones. To form a tropical cyclone, you need several ingredients to come together... a low pressure center, warm SSTs (above 26C), ventilation aloft, low shear (<20kt), and a lack of dry air in the vicinity (there are other factors, but those factors are more complex, this is just the basics).

If you want to be in a storm, please keep to yourself about your wishcasting. It generally isn't terribly accepted here.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
255 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

FLZ039-043-050>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-853 -873-192000-
LEVY-SUMTER-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HA RDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
255 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

.NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY SCATTERED OVER
THE MARINE WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE WATERS.

$$

RHEA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Amazing rain for sure and we needed every drop, sorry hydrus :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1223 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-200430-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1223 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TRACK TOWARD THE COAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OVERHEAD TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING. THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE MAINLAND TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOATERS ON INLAND
LAKES...RIVERS...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD KEEP A WEATHER WATCH TO THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ANY NEW FIRES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY MAKING CONTAINMENT DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CAUSE THE
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH
THROUGH THE GULF...LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW PRIMED
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME OVER FLORIDA FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
AFFECT THE STATE. NEVERTHELESS..THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE ON SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ALL PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REFINED AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION
REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY SATURDAY.

$$

BRAGAW
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Quoting hydrus:
Far out. You should ship some of that stuff to the S.E. U.S...:)
amazing, these heavy showers are great
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Quoting icmoore:
I just waded through the standing water to my rain gauge at our cottage in Madeira Beach and we got a whopping 3.20" WOW!!
Far out. You should ship some of that stuff to the S.E. U.S...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
Quoting PedleyCA:


I got this off the internet link for that channel. I was watching the 10A.M. news and the anchor said that the plane was flying in circles and A.F. planes were scrambled to find out what happened. Plane was headed for Sarasota Fla. from Slidell La.


Local news is reporting his name now... he was a doctor from Slidell. Original reports were that the plane had somehow reached the water surface in a "soft landing" was was floating right-side-up. It has since sunk into the gulf and there is no sign of the pilot.
http://www.wwltv.com/news/Plane-from-Slidell-with -unresponsive-pilot-spotted-near-Florida-148115745 .html

Quoting Cotillion:
"Britain could be facing the coldest May for 100 years, with snow, bitter winds and freezing temperatures putting summer on hold"

The winter weather follows a wet start to April, with the threat of floods and storms to come over the next few days.
The Met Office has issued weather warnings for the South West, London, South East, Wales and the West of England due to flooding on roads and 60mph winds.
Hail storms are expected across the country and it is feared windows could be broken by giant hail, up to 1cm thick. In the north and Scotland temperatures could fall to -2C.

Link

Nothing makes sense anymore.

A lot of persistent rain in the last two-three days. When it's not a drought, it's a flood!


I would be interested to hear how this independent weather firm, WeatherAction, came up with that forecast. Even when it was quite clear that we were heading into a warm stretch in April, I do not recall any official forecasts for it to be a near record warm March for the US... and there's a reason for that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just waded through the standing water to my rain gauge at our cottage in Madeira Beach and we got a whopping 3.20" WOW!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
122 trunkmonkey: Here is some more phony bologna from the Drought Monitor [snip]
Less than an inch from last year, so do you have to make up all the rain lost from earlier months?

Nope, ya hafta make up for the groundwater and surface reservoir depletions.
Even if all of the precipitation shortage of the past 16months dropped in 1day, most of water would be wasted to flooding and run-off. It takes time for water to soak down into the soil and raise the water table. And the surface reservoirs/lakes/ponds wouldn't be helped as much one might think.
eg Southern Florida is in an almost continuous drought, partially (or maybe*largely) because nearly every time a TropicalStorm threatens to dump a huge load of water, LakeOkeechobee hasta open its floodgates beforehand to prevent the possible overflow from destroying its surrounding levees.

* That and a huge population growth with the attendant huge growth in water demand... including from sugarcane plantations that shoulda never been allowed there in the first place.


I think people have corrected him several times, even provided links to information to understand how/why it is calculated the way it is, yet his rantings about the drought monitor continue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
"Britain could be facing the coldest May for 100 years, with snow, bitter winds and freezing temperatures putting summer on hold"

The winter weather follows a wet start to April, with the threat of floods and storms to come over the next few days.
The Met Office has issued weather warnings for the South West, London, South East, Wales and the West of England due to flooding on roads and 60mph winds.
Hail storms are expected across the country and it is feared windows could be broken by giant hail, up to 1cm thick. In the north and Scotland temperatures could fall to -2C.

Link

Nothing makes sense anymore.

A lot of persistent rain in the last two-three days. When it's not a drought, it's a flood!
Hello Cott...You guys across the pond are getting a lot of rough weather. The models are liking the gulf low, and they really need the rain..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
Folks, we will get some rain...not enough, but some...we might get some storms with wind and hail...what's new about that? Granted, we have been way behind on precip for the last couple of years, but what we are going to see this weekend is not "extreme," this is Florida....and I did not see this posted, but it has been out a couple of hours...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
137 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
AT 120 PM EDT DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
IN RUSKIN FL WAS SHOWING SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COASTLINE. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AS A WEAK LOW OVER NORTHERN
FL SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE NE LATER TONIGHT...HELPING IN KEEPING SW
FLOW AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR FUELING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THE NATURE COAST WILL LIKELY DRY OUT MORE THAN THE REST OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEPARTS...WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROVIDING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS COULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL...INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
SUNRISE.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF MID/LATE MORNING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INLAND AS
SEA BREEZES DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE RAINY TREND CONTINUES WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
30 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIKELY SHOWERS
AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

GFS/EURO/NAM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE GENERAL SOLUTION ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A SHARPLY DEEPENING TROUGH ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
THE GULF REGION AND A MID LVL CLOSED LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THE OUTCOME OF
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CAN STILL UNDERGO CHANGES DEPENDING ON HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SITUATION DURING THE NEXT RUNS. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 60 POPS/RAIN LIKELY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY WITH UPCOMING MODEL DATA.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S....COOLER OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ARE NOW BRINGING THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
THEN OPENING IT UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED AS IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND/OR INSTABILITY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.


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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
This is a 84 hour water vapor forecast. It shows the gulf low very well...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
Quoting jeffs713:
149.

No, Its APRIL. Get a grip.

So? We had an invest in Febuary and one right now. SSTs are high.
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149.

No, Its APRIL. Get a grip.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5792
After 18hours without ATCF updates...
35.1n57.3w, 33.9n58.5w, 32.7n59.2w, 31.9n59.0w, 31.3n58.2w, 31.0n57.4w, 30.7n56.8w, 30.3n56.4w
91L has made a partial S-turn heading SouthEastward, and the previous update's prediction models

MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- PBI is PalmBeach,Florida -- BDA is Bermuda
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"Britain could be facing the coldest May for 100 years, with snow, bitter winds and freezing temperatures putting summer on hold"

The winter weather follows a wet start to April, with the threat of floods and storms to come over the next few days.
The Met Office has issued weather warnings for the South West, London, South East, Wales and the West of England due to flooding on roads and 60mph winds.
Hail storms are expected across the country and it is feared windows could be broken by giant hail, up to 1cm thick. In the north and Scotland temperatures could fall to -2C.

Link

Nothing makes sense anymore.

A lot of persistent rain in the last two-three days. When it's not a drought, it's a flood!
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I know its early for saying this but after 91L, is there any possible tropical development anywhere. I wanna see some clouds spinning! Hopefully towards the SE states.
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148. flsky
Lovely, steady rain in Daytona Beach Shores right now. Wonderful. Don't think it will last too long though.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Quoting LargoFl:
thats the current nam models
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
122 trunkmonkey: Here is some more phony bologna from the Drought Monitor [snip]
Less than an inch from last year, so do you have to make up all the rain lost from earlier months?

Nope, ya hafta make up for the groundwater and surface reservoir depletions.
Even if all of the precipitation shortage of the past 16months dropped in 1day, most of water would be wasted to flooding and run-off. It takes time for water to soak down into the soil and raise the water table. And the surface reservoirs/lakes/ponds wouldn't be helped as much one might think.
eg Southern Florida is in an almost continuous drought: partially (or maybe*largely) because nearly every time a TropicalStorm threatens to dump a huge load of water, LakeOkeechobee hasta open its floodgates beforehand to prevent the possible overflow from destroying its surrounding levees.

* That and a huge population growth with the attendant huge growth in water demand... including from sugarcane plantations that shoulda never been allowed there in the first place.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
hope some rain finally gets down to south Florida this weekend, they need it badly also................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
sun is peaking thru the clouds overhead by me, by dark clouds to the south,almost looks like they are headed northeast for some reason..............................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Euro puts FL on blast! OUCH

gee this is going to be something to watch very carefully huh..I am really worried about the high wind possible with this system, hope its not too bad
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Quoting dogsgomoo:

Not sure if you were trying to link to or post images? No images/links showed up.

I have noticed that the Drought Monitor shows a generalized large scale regional outlook. There can be isolated spots that are wetter or drier. Most of mid to south GA has seen very little rain over the past 6 months. Last days rain, while being a blessing, isn't going to fill reservoirs or water tables. This pattern needs to repeat itself a few times.
Don't know if this map is any better.

Looks like only 4.39% of GA is not experiencing some level of drought, and 2/3 of the state is in extreme and exceptional drought. Without rainfall, that extreme can turn exceptional pretty quick. Drought is the worst weather. I feel for you.
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Quoting reedzone:
I personally feel the earlier models are right, Florida may get a bigger event then what is currently shown. I feel the low will cross North Florida rather then Central Florida.


Euro puts FL on blast! OUCH

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
136. Tygor
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Water Restrictions are starting back up around here, we just got out of them a few weeks ago but bone dry weather here since Middle of March and the Lakes being less than half full is starting Drought thing over again. http://blogs.kxan.com/2012/04/18/falling-aquifer-l evel-triggers-san-marcos-restrictions/

After going thru last year I hate going a month or 2 without rain. East Texas will be OK going into Summer but the Western 2/3's of Texas looks like drought conditions again unless tropical systems move in or we get Heavy Rains in May which is possible.


Yeah the eastern third of texas seems to be okay in terms of rain. We've only received 0.04" this month and barely an inch of rain last month. Thankfully we had a wetter January/February or it would be a disaster. Weird seeing Houston at about 10" more rain this year and only maybe two hours to the east. My biggest concern is that we aren't nearly recovered from the drought from last year, and the 100+ degree days onslaught is right around the corner. If the weather doesn't change soon, last year's drought is going to pale compared to this year.
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can someone link me to the latest NAM models?
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In the meantime, it's coming down heavy in Trinidad, after a morning of drizzle.

Is this the Rainy Season, starting already?
Stay tuned.....
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Quoting trunkmonkey:
Here is some more phoney bolonga from the Drought Monitor.

This is Tiftin Ga.
Here is the stats for this year.
The Drought Monitor has them as an extreme drought.

Yeah right!

Choose weather station -

From:

To:


From Jan-1 To Apr-17 Total Precipitation
[in] Number of
Rainy Days
2012 2012 9.60 37
2011 2011 10.43 32


Less than an inch from last year, so do you have to make up all the rain lost from earlier months?



I'd say they are still in a drought. Average rainfall is 47 inches/yearly
Link
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Correct on Dennis Phillips fb page he said how the low hasn't even formed yet and could make a huge difference if it tracks north we have a higher chance of seeing severe weather and if it tracks south we have a lesser chance. Regardless the entire bay area is up for a good soaking of 1-2 inches.



Denis Phillips is one of few METS that does not follow the lead of others, but does his own forecasting. He is my MET of choice in the Bay Area that i follow and a very good FB friend.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:
Here is some more phoney bolonga from the Drought Monitor.

This is Tiftin Ga.
Here is the stats for this year.
The Drought Monitor has them as an extreme drought.

Yeah right!

Choose weather station -

From:

To:


From Jan-1 To Apr-17 Total Precipitation
[in] Number of
Rainy Days
2012 2012 9.60 37
2011 2011 10.43 32


Less than an inch from last year, so do you have to make up all the rain lost from earlier months?



Here is a link to the information listed on the drought monitor. It may help with understanding the calculations and methodology behind it.

Link
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33349
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Here is some more phoney bolonga from the Drought Monitor.

This is Tiftin Ga.
Here is the stats for this year.
The Drought Monitor has them as an extreme drought.

Yeah right!

Choose weather station -

From:

To:


From Jan-1 To Apr-17 Total Precipitation
[in] Number of
Rainy Days
2012 2012 9.60 37
2011 2011 10.43 32


Less than an inch from last year, so do you have to make up all the rain lost from earlier months?


Not sure if you were trying to link to or post images? No images/links showed up.

I have noticed that the Drought Monitor shows a generalized large scale regional outlook. There can be isolated spots that are wetter or drier. Most of mid to south GA has seen very little rain over the past 6 months. Last days rain, while being a blessing, isn't going to fill reservoirs or water tables. This pattern needs to repeat itself a few times.
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I personally feel the earlier models are right, Florida may get a bigger event then what is currently shown. I feel the low will cross North Florida rather then Central Florida.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.