Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 AM GMT on April 19, 2012

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Today is my last day in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, where 700 of the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. It's been a great week of learning and catching up with old friends, and I present below a few final summaries of talks I attended.

Impact of Tropical Cyclones on drought alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick of the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi discussed how landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes can alleviate drought. The biggest winner tends to be the Southeast U.S. states of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, where about 20% - 50% of all droughts between 1960 - 2009 were busted by a landfalling tropical storm or hurricane. It is uncommon for Texas to see a drought busted; less than 10% of all Texas droughts have been ended by a hurricane or tropical storm. This occurs because the Southeast U.S. can receive heavy rains from hurricanes moving up the East Coast, or moving through the Gulf of Mexico, while relatively few storms track over Texas. Over the course of a year, hurricanes and tropical storms contribute 15 - 20% of rain along the Gulf Coast, and 3 - 16% along the East Coast. The length of a drought does not seem to affect whether a drought can be ended by a hurricane or not. Hurricanes have been able to end both short (< 3 month) and long (> 12 month droughts) equally well.


Figure 1. Example of a drought-busting tropical storm. Moderate drought (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI, ≤ –2.0) was present in 52 percent of the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina climate divisions in May 2006. The percentage decreased to 29 percent after Tropical Storm Alberto passed through on June 11 - 15, 2006. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Rainfall in inches from the passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, over 90% of the area of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are currently in moderate to exceptional drought. There is 1 - 2 inches of rain coming to much of the region over the next few days, but that will not be enough to bust the drought. Based on Dr. Fitzpatrick's research, there is a 20% - 50% chance that the drought will be broken by a tropical storm or hurricane. The first storm on the list in 2012 is Alberto again; let's hope we get another Alberto this year that imitates the 2006 version of Alberto.

Patterns of rapid intensification
Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans studied patterns of hurricane rapid intensification in the Atlantic from 1950 - 2009. The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean saw the most rapid intensification events, and the Northeast Atlantic the fewest. Interestingly, he found that rapid intensification events did not peak in September, but tended to be more common in June and July. Hurricane are less likely to intensify in the late afternoon and early evening (near 00 UTC), and more likely to intensify just after midnight, at 06 UTC.

Jeff Masters

TS Alberto Surfer (Loyce)
This surfer was taking advantage of the storm with the high waves in the height of Tropical Storm Alberto.
TS Alberto Surfer
Alberto feederband (earthlydragonfly)
At about 2 am a feederband passed through Winter Garden. My weatherstation recorded a 40mph wind gust and a pretty server drop and barometric pressure. I got this shot last night as well. Really not much lightning in these storms
Alberto feederband

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I say D...late June to early July...

How come you think so late?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
Issued my last statement on 91-L...IMO 100% chance that will not develop.
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Quoting Doppler22:


I say B :)


I say D...late June to early July...
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
454 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

FLZ043-050>052-055>057-060>062-GMZ830-853-856-873 -876-192200-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE- HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
451 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012


.NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE WATERS.

$$

LEWIS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973


Nuclear fuel not affected by sea water?


How sea water could corrode nuclear fuel

January 26, 2012
Spherical image made up of clusters of panels

The individual panels on this buckyball image are made up of uranium and oxygen atoms. These clusters form when seawater corrodes nuclear fuel. (Ginger Sigmon/University of Notre Dame image)

Japan used seawater to cool nuclear fuel at the stricken Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant after the tsunami in March 2011 -- and that was probably the best action to take at the time, says Professor Alexandra Navrotsky of the University of California, Davis.

But Navrotsky and others have since discovered a new way in which seawater can corrode nuclear fuel, forming uranium compounds that could potentially travel long distances, either in solution or as very small particles. The research team published its work Jan. 23 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“This is a phenomenon that has not been considered before,” said Alexandra Navrotsky, distinguished professor of ceramic, earth and environmental materials chemistry. “We don’t know how much this will increase the rate of corrosion, but it is something that will have to be considered in future.”

Japan used seawater to avoid a much more serious accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant, and Navrotsky said, to her knowledge, there is no evidence of long-distance uranium contamination from the plant.

Uranium in nuclear fuel rods is in a chemical form that is “pretty insoluble” in water, Navrotsky said, unless the uranium is oxidized to uranium-VI — a process that can be facilitated when radiation converts water into peroxide, a powerful oxidizing agent.

Peter Burns, professor of civil engineering and geological sciences at the University of Notre Dame and a co-author of the new paper, had previously made spherical uranium peroxide clusters, rather like carbon “buckyballs,” that can dissolve or exist as solids.

In the new paper, the researchers show that in the presence of alkali metal ions such as sodium — for example, in seawater — these clusters are stable enough to persist in solution or as small particles even when the oxidizing agent is removed.

In other words, these clusters could form on the surface of a fuel rod exposed to seawater and then be transported away, surviving in the environment for months or years before reverting to more common forms of uranium, without peroxide, and settling to the bottom of the ocean. There is no data yet on how fast these uranium peroxide clusters will break down in the environment, Navrotsky said.

Navrotsky and Burns worked with the following co-authors: postdoctoral researcher Christopher Armstrong and project scientist Tatiana Shvareva, UC Davis; May Nyman, Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque, N.M.; and Ginger Sigmon, University of Notre Dame. The U.S. Department of Energy supported the project.

http://www.news.ucdavis.edu/search/news_detail.la sso?id=10131
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Quoting aspectre:
166 jeffs713 153, [snip] If you want to be in a storm, please keep to yourself about your wishcasting. It generally isn't terribly accepted here.

The snipped-out part was short, sweet, and sensible. However, your last two sentences...


Yeah... I was being a bit cranky.


Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I know that there are other factors, but warm SSTs are a big one. I'm simply hoping for rain and tropical storms bring rain. In my town, everyone hopes we get a flood warning when we need rain badly. If wishcasting isn't accepted and apparently asking an opinion or fact that someone knows(its happened alot of times to me here before), then I won't say anything.

My apologies for coming across cranky - it was out of line, and please accept my apology.

I misinterpreted your post as someone wishcasting a storm at them, as opposed to you asking a genuine question. So... my bad, continue on, please.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Someone said that Sea Water and Nuclear fuel rods won't mix??....

Mixing Seawater and Nuke Fuel: Still Murky
A year since Fukushima, scientists still aren't sure what you get when nuclear fuel is doused with sea water.


http://news.discovery.com/tech/fukushima-sea-wate r-nuclear-fuel-120308.html

Nuclear fuel at Fukushima was largely uranium oxide (UO2), with a small portion of the fuel containing plutonium. The cladding of the fuel rods is made of zirconium alloy.
When the water pumps failed, the temperature in the core got hot enough for the zirconium alloy to react with the water, which released hydrogen. That caused the reactor buildings to explode, because hydrogen reacted violently with the oxygen in the air.
In addition, several radioactive byproducts were released into the air and groundwater, such as iodine and cesium.
When the seawater hit the reactor core, it heated up and evaporated. That likely left salt deposits. Another factor was the extreme heat near the fuel rods. Burns said at those temperatures and in the presence of radioactivity seawater can form peroxides, which are even more likely to react with the elements in the core and do so differently from water.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
438 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

FLZ047-054-147-192130-
INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
438 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER BREVARD COUNTY...INDIAN
RIVER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT.

AT 434 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM
CANAVERAL GROVES TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLUE CYPRESS LAKE...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH. THESE CELLS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
OF BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...MELBOURNE
BEACH...MICCO...VIERA...ROCKLEDGE AND VERO LAKE ESTATES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2757 8078 2764 8078 2764 8083 2854 8088
2856 8079 2854 8077 2854 8074 2858 8073
2862 8060 2859 8057 2845 8052 2842 8057
2836 8060 2813 8057 2775 8038 2756 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 272DEG 13KT 2843 8082 2815 8074
2764 8082

$$

SEDLOCK
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973
Quoting jeffs713:
153. As has been said countless times on this blog, SSTs are not the only thing that influences storm formation, and an invest is just that, a system the NHC wants to investigate more. Just because it is an invest doesn't give it any status in terms of tropical cyclones. To form a tropical cyclone, you need several ingredients to come together... a low pressure center, warm SSTs (above 26C), ventilation aloft, low shear (<20kt), and a lack of dry air in the vicinity (there are other factors, but those factors are more complex, this is just the basics).

If you want to be in a storm, please keep to yourself about your wishcasting. It generally isn't terribly accepted here.

I know that there are other factors, but warm SSTs are a big one. I'm simply hoping for rain and tropical storms bring rain. In my town, everyone hopes we get a flood warning when we need rain badly. If wishcasting isn't accepted and apparently asking an opinion or fact that someone knows(its happened alot of times to me here before), then I won't say anything.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Super day here....



thats an awesome pic there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973
166 jeffs713: 153, [snip] If you want to be in a storm, please keep to yourself about your wishcasting. It generally isn't terribly accepted here.

The snipped-out part was short, sweet, and sensible. However...
192 washingtonian: Lol at the title of the blog.
"Southeast U.S. drought: another Tropical Storm Alberto needed" so ya don't hafta scroll up. Albertos have a history of being mild. Kinda like wishing last year that Bob would break the TexasHigh drought.
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Quoting intampa:
no rain in brandon florida( west of tampa) yet. all these big dark clouds everywhere but over here only broken cloud cover with sun peeking in and out at times. hopefully they get it right on this storm this weekend and we get rain. seems the more the hype for these storms the less likely they happen. the local mets seem to think maybe about 1 to 2 inches of rain and thats it. some are even saying just scattered rain showers.
one guy in here from Madeira beach said he has 3 inches already in his rain gauge,so some get 1 inch, some get 3 inches or more, we are right on the coastline and maybe thats why today we got more than others, it poured rain alot this morning, now the suns out and fair weather clouds above
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973
Super day here....



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I was just watching weather channel, and besides the Florida story this weekend, something very good can happen up in the drought stricken northeast, IF he said, the tract forecast holds, he said the storm will move up along the east coast and if the track holds, it could bring up 2-3 inches of tropical moisture, which those folks up there really need too...fingers crossed they get their rains
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973
Quoting jeffs713:
I think what Naga5000 means isn't "context", but rather "critical thinking". Critical thinking is understanding why and how something happens, along with its effects down the road - and making judgements based on that information.


Well yes and no. Understanding context is just one variable involved in critical thinking, albeit and important one.
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no rain in brandon florida( west of tampa) yet. all these big dark clouds everywhere but over here only broken cloud cover with sun peeking in and out at times. hopefully they get it right on this storm this weekend and we get rain. seems the more the hype for these storms the less likely they happen. the local mets seem to think maybe about 1 to 2 inches of rain and thats it. some are even saying just scattered rain showers.
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Quoting Grothar:


What do mean?


For example, missing the context of time in reading an essay written in 1910. The current generation (not everyone, but over 50%) can`t understand that the time period and cultural attitudes sometimes change the meaning of what is being communicated through the essay. The same occurs in research with not understanding the methodology and therefore not understanding the limitations of what is being shown. With the drought maps, not understanding that it isnt just a rainfall deficit, but rather a cumulative effect of rainfall, soil moisture, etc that all comes together to paint a more variable intensive and accurate picture of whats occurring. I hope I`m maikng sense today :)
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Quoting bappit:
The news of Dick Clark ... now this.

I actually think the death happened several years ago, but without Facts, we will never know for sure.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Quoting reedzone:


Looks like they are not agreeing with the model runs either.. Interesting how the "officials" are agreeing with the models yet the local weather forecasters aren't... Really tells you something. Again, I believe the EURO is right, strong low moving north of Central Florida, causing a powerful squall line to impact the Peninsula late Saturday night into Sunday morning. GFS and NAM seem to be out of place.



It depends on which local forecaster you speak of. There are a few MET's here in Tampa Bay that are very good whom I trust as a source, and they agree with the NWS. They are playing it safe and mentioning severe but aren't going overkill or hyping anything, they are definitely more concerned about accurate science rather than ratings and hype. Which is also why the NWS is playing it safe. I'm not saying there still isn't a chance of significant severe but it looks to be less than what it seemed yesterday and previously.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7386
The news of Dick Clark ... now this.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Regardless of the ultimate outcome (and some of the more responsible Mets were calling for "calm" until the models gave us a clearer picture towards Today or Friday as opposed to hyping the event several days in advance), Florida and other parts of the SE really need the rain.........Been tired of smelling smoke up here in North Florida on several occasions over the past few weeks due to a few wildfires.
yes we really do need this rain, man i know the feeling about the smoke, one day it came all the way down to Tampa bay, it was awful, in places you could not see the car in front of you, I can only imagine how bad it is in north florida where that big fire is...mother nature..bring the rains to florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37973
I think what Naga5000 means isn't "context", but rather "critical thinking". Critical thinking is understanding why and how something happens, along with its effects down the road - and making judgements based on that information.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
Quoting Naga5000:



The unfortunate fact facing a good proportion of people today, at least what I have noticed at the Community College and University level, is a lack of context. They can look at something, doubt it, disparage it, but not understand WHY it shows what it shows. Context and understanding methodology are the main areas where people seem to be falling short. This is not meant as an insult, just an observation; context is not easy to understand and remember in every circumstance.


What do you mean?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25995
Regardless of the ultimate outcome (and some of the more responsible Mets were calling for "calm" until the models gave us a clearer picture towards Today or Friday as opposed to hyping the event several days in advance), Florida and other parts of the SE really need the rain.........Been tired of smelling smoke up here in North Florida on several occasions over the past few weeks due to a few wildfires.
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NAM looks to be back on board with a decent Low crossing North Florida (1004 mlb), triggering a decent widespread Severe Weather event (note: not an outbreak as earlier suggested). Notice a squall line about to enter the Peninsula on the radar simulation, on the new NAM model run.


I'd say a very good chance at SPC issuing a slight risk of Severe Weather for tomorrows Day 2 outlook for Saturday. This is still looking to be an overnight event so it can be dangerous. Probs around 15% to 30%, nothing more though. 30% really would be due to very strong winds.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7361
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This will be a mid level low so there won't be a much of a breeze as the low goes by, but any thunderstorms that form will contain gusty winds.


Yeah, that is what I kind of suspected. We can certainly use the rain though!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first poll concerning the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

">

I choose B.


I say B :)
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
334 PM CDT Thursday Apr 19 2012


Friday night through Sunday...
models remain in generally good agreement concerning the next
system. As the upper trough axis approaches the Louisiana/Texas
border...models agree that a closed low will form in the base of
the trough. As this happens...it will induce the development of a
surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. While model
placement of the surface low has been moving a bit from run to
run...the scenario itself has not changed much.


With the surface low shifting farther south...much of the heavier
rain and convection will remain over the Gulf. With that
said...have reduced the probability of thunderstorms into the
chance category with the primary Mode of precipitation being rain
showers. Have also significantly reduced the quantitative precipitation forecast forecast as
heaviest precipitation should remain offshore.


Otherwise...main impacts remain the same. The very tight pressure gradient across the area will lead to strong winds across both marine and land areas as the low develops and moves away from the area.

Despite the low moving away from the area and a slight
relaxing of the pressure gradient...will still be calling for sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour with frequent higher gusts across most of the area Sunday.
This will be primarily due to the fact that skies should be clear Saturday allowing for efficient
mixing through the column which will bring strong winds aloft down to the surface.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like Kentucky and Kansas have gotten the brunt of the severe weather so far this year
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This will be a mid level low so there won't be a much of a breeze as the low goes by, but any thunderstorms that form will contain gusty winds.



Actually, there will also be solid surface low as well that is expected to move into Central Florida, so it will get quite windy. However I'm actually surprised QPF forecasts haven't increased around here yet because while the new surface low placement likely means a lower severe threat, it probably means a higher rain threat. Most likely though QPF forecasts are still on the conservative side thanks to the fact that we have been in such a consistent dry pattern and because the last few systems all produced less than the model consensus showed so I certainly understand forecasters in having still a more conservative rainfall forecast. I myself am not going bullish on the rain until I see it materialize. However, the potential certainly exists for several inches of rain. But it is just that, potential, scientifically a potential function is a good way of predicting the maximum output of anything, however it is a potential, and actually output doesn't always live up to the potential function...


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7386
NEW (still running) 18Z NAM@ 60 hours - Bit tighter then last run, stronger, much further north. Crosses north of Tampa, FL instead of stalling in GOM.


12Z NAM - Farther out in the GOM, broad, weak with multiple lows


Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7361


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25995
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I think people have corrected him several times, even provided links to information to understand how/why it is calculated the way it is, yet his rantings about the drought monitor continue.



The unfortunate fact facing a good proportion of people today, at least what I have noticed at the Community College and University level, is a lack of context. They can look at something, doubt it, disparage it, but not understand WHY it shows what it shows. Context and understanding methodology are the main areas where people seem to be falling short. This is not meant as an insult, just an observation; context is not easy to understand and remember in every circumstance.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is just thru 12Z Sunday and some totals locally where heavy rain bands can set up will get much higher than this.




Hey, it looks like computer model trends have begun to back off on the significant severe but this recent trend would likely mean even more rain, if the low tracks right through the gulf across Florida then it will bring the very heavy precip with it. Severe weather would be less and rain more, which is exactly what we want to see.

Now keep in mind the NWS noted this was just from the recent computer runs, they may shift back to the severe risk but hopefully not.



Anyway, this is exactly why its not good to hype the severe issue, if this model trend continues severe will be minimal, then some of the people who were freaking out about this situation being deadly with a moderate risk look silly. Moderate risk forecasts are rare in Florida for that exact reason. A moderate risk warrants significant confidence for significant severe. When we do get significant severe in Florida usually a moderate risk or higher will not be issued simply because there usually isn't sufficient confidence for one. The SPC isn't about hype. Florida weather is just hard to predict. For those who were talking about wide spread severe and potentially deadly outbreak of severe for us this weekend, well, I hope you've learned your lesson because models have backed off of that and are now leaning more toward mainly heavy storms with an isolated severe threat. I'm not saying this to mock and made a public spectacle out of people. But I'm saying this to urge other like me who are either seeking to be a meteorologist or you are enough of an enthusiast that people listen to you about weather reports. I get very excited about these events myself but I've learned to work at seeking accuracy instead of hype. I don't even need to get into why accuracy over hype is so important, you guys should know that by now.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7386
Lol at the title of the blog.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I am also interested in the possibility of high, non-thunderstorm winds due to this low now forecast to move over Central Florida on Sunday. As I do not recall the last time we actually had a similar low take this projected path, not sure what to expect. Sustained surface winds 30-40 mph for a few hours as the low moves by, or just a breezy day with gusty winds in thunderstorms? What do the computer models show in this regard? A windy, squally day would be a nice change, as long as there is nothing damaging.
This will be a mid level low so there won't be a much of a breeze as the low goes by, but any thunderstorms that form will contain gusty winds.
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Wait a second... NAM is a tad stronger on this run, takes the low north of Tampa, FL.. Interesting..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7361
On this date last year, the tornado events of April 25, 26, 27, and 28 began to show up on the models. The HPC and SPC began mentioning the system.

Little did we know it feature the largest tornado outbreak in USA history.
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Quoting aspectre:
158 ScottLincoln I think people have corrected [trunkmonkey]several times, even provided links to information to understand how/why it is calculated the way it is, yet his rantings about the drought monitor continue.

Yeah, but if ya got a handful of people who don't(overtly)understand the hows&whys behind the DroughtMonitor, there's probably more than a few others who aren't so openly expressing their displeasure; including newbies and new lurkers who are also puzzled by the DroughtMonitor.
So the "rant"s at least serve to inspire relevant comments that'll be educational for those some.


I think you both make valid points. "old Stuff" might get tiring for the old timers, but this blog seems to get a lot of "new people". That old stuff is relevant to them, and might keep them coming back/interested. Eventuality they might start to contribute.

So keep addressing the "rants" politely as it does serve a useful function. I came to the blog to try and understand climate change. I needed exposure to the basics. The new people might need basics also.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I guess we have a boring 2 weeks of weather coming up.

Yeah.

My main concern is that May is going to explode with tornado activity.
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18Z NAM remains weak with the low...
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7361
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There have been well over 330 confirmed tornadoes so far this year. That's well above average.

The good news is, the GFS shows nothing significant for the next 16 days.

I guess we have a boring 2 weeks of weather coming up.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My first poll concerning the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Answer if you wish, ignore if you do not, but don't make a post about how pointless the polls are and do not make up your own choices. Thanks ;)

Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July

">

I choose B.
C
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There have been well over 330 confirmed tornadoes so far this year. That's well above average.

The good news is, the GFS shows nothing significant for the next 16 days.
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Gulf Storm November 16. 2002


Sort of similar to how this storm may look.. I remember there being a substantial severe weather threat that day, had auditions for acting/modeling school. Just rained with some thunder/tornado watch. Low was too far south for a squall line to organize, which might be the case with this storm, according to the GFS and NAM. I still disagree at this time. The EURO remains strong.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7361
171 TropicalAnalystwx13: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

E) February produced a horrendous Cat.5 with multiple landfalls on several major cities in its travels.
Afterwards, time-travellers came back with advanced technology that prevented the storm from growing out of its Invest stage. Which is why you don't remember it happening.
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Q: When will our first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season be designated?

A. Late April-Early May
B. Mid-Late May
C. Early-Mid June
D. Late June-Early July


I say B as well.
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Take it for what it's worth, which isn't much, but the CPC has released their new 3 month outlook

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7735

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.