91L no concern; more postcards from the AMS hurricane conference

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

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I'm in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. Most of the Hurricane Specialists from the National Hurricane Center are here, and they are keeping an eye on the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, where an extratropical storm has cut off from the jet stream and is slowly acquiring tropical characteristics. This system was designated Invest 91L last night by NHC. Ocean temperatures are around 20°C (68°F) in the region, which is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots. Nevertheless, 91L has managed to develop a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and may continue to show more organization as it moves slowly southeastward over the next day or two. I give 91L a close to 0% chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days, and NHC seems to have stopped issuing new products for the system. By the end of the week, 91L should get picked up by a trough of low pressure and move off to the northeast. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L. The island of Bermuda is seen at the left side of the image.

Global tropical cyclones and climate: current signal
Now, I'll summarize a few of the excellent talks given at this week's AMS hurricane conference. Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research talked about the impact of global warming on hurricane intensities. Using data beginning in 1975, the beginning of the satellite era, he showed that while the total number of hurricanes globally has decreased in recent years, the proportion of hurricanes that are of Category 4 - 5 intensity has increased by 40%. He showed that this change could be related to a 0.8°C increase in global temperature during the period. He concluded that when hurricanes form, they are finding that it is easier for them to reach higher intensities.

Sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to ocean surface warmth
Dr. Jim Elsner of Florida State University showed that observations indicate a sensitivity of hurricane winds of 8.2 m/s +/- 1.19 per degree Centigrade of ocean warmth, using data in the Atlantic from 1981 - 2010 (for oceans areas warmer than 25°C.) Using a high resolution model (HiRAM) with 50 km resolution, a sensitivity of only 1.5 +/- .6 m/s was found, calling into question the usefulness of current models for assessing future hurricane activity.

How will climate change affect hurricane tracks?
Angela Colbert of the University of Miami used 17 global climate models, the BAM hurricane tracking model, and the Atlantic historical HURDAT data base to see how hurricane tracks might change in the future. She classified storms as either straight moving (which tend to hit the Caribbean or U.S. Gulf Coast), recurving landfalling (U.S. East Coast impacts), or recurving ocean storms that miss landfall. She projected a 6% increase in recurving ocean storms and an 8% decrease in straight-moving storms by the end of the century, due to climate change. A decrease of 1- 2 storms per decade is predicted for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and an increase of 1 - 2 storms per decade in the waters of the mid-Atlantic, and along the East Coast of Florida. This occurs primarily because of an increase in westerly winds over the Central Atlantic, and to a lesser degree, an eastward change in genesis location closer to the coast of Africa. Both of these factors would tend to increase the number of recurving storms.

Jeff Masters

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601. Patrap
3:23 PM GMT on April 19, 2012
USGS
Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park



Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.


Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
600. TropicTraveler
2:50 PM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
581 mati: Dudes, what are you smoking?

Getting smoked is for lightweights. Physics is: Sure your idea is crazy, but is it crazy enough to be true?

585 TropicTraveler: Worked at a nuclear plant for some years. Don't see how uranium could possibly be mixed with cooling seawater. The two systems never mix (the coolant is in pipes separate from the pipes with radioactivity.) The nuclear pile could never "sputter off" into the cooling water.

We're talking about broken reactor vessels and cracked coolant lines at FukushimaDaiichi.
Emergency crews were using firehoses mounted on crane booms to spray seawater onto the reactor vessels so that the seawater could provide external cooling. Simultaneously they were furiously pumping seawater into the coolant lines to keep water levels high enough to cool the internal vessels containing the nuclear reaction piles because water was leaking out so fast.
And the reaction piles had already melted through the bottoms of the internal vessels... and probably through the bottom of at least one external vessel; that or it had been cracked all the way through.

What can leak out, can evaporate out when the water becomes superheated enough and/or when the water levels within the reactor vessels fall enough.
Heck, without the zirconium (or equivalent) cladding to hold it in, the surface layer of an enriched uranium rod undergoing normal operating-level fission would sputter at normal operating temperature.


Sorry about that. I thought there was reference to California and their "white sands" being now infused with buckyballs.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
599. Neapolitan
11:29 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
BTW: NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
598. Neapolitan
11:28 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting VR46L:
248. wxmojo 7:34 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

All the howling tells me everything I need to know.

It is time that I shake the dust off my feet from this blog.

I bid adieu, and God bless
.





I will be honest I am an infrequent blogger here but read this blog a lot There are many times I shake my head in despair and disbelief and this morning was one of those times ,I do not know if this person is a genius or someone who is a humorous blogger Who would be described as a troll on this forum . Da Vinci and Galileo Galilei were both mistreated by their peers Yet today their scientific minds are revered throughout the world But it made me extremely sad to see someone treated the way this person was ..There was an extreme ,lack of charity, unkind treatment. And closed minds. if you don’t like what was written then just skip the post or try to reason with the person and not ridicule them..Just my opinion.... It reminded me of what happened a while ago when some great entertaining intelligent bloggers vanished from here …
Many of us tried to reason with wxmojo; we often asked very politely for him to explain what it was he was seeing. He'd post one weather map after another atop which he had superimposed dozens of geometric shapes; we'd ask him to explain what it was those shapes were defining or outlining; he'd respond that he didn't know, but it sure was mysterious; we'd again ask him what it was he was showing; he'd become agitated and tell us that a) a person would have to be blind to not see what he was seeing, and b) if we didn't like it we could just ignore him.

That's not the way a community works, especially one that sometimes discusses science fact and theory at some length. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; wxmojo failed to provide such evidence.

I'm a frequent contributor to other blogs beside this one; many of them would have not extended wxmojo the same patience and leeway he was granted here, but would have instead laughed him off the forum within minutes of posting his first shape-covered weather map. Just another reason to love WU...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
597. MAweatherboy1
11:19 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
30% hatched area today...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7306
596. GeoffreyWPB
11:07 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS ON THE WEEKEND PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FOR FLORIDA ANYTIME FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN
EAST TOWARD AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION/TIMING...WHICH NOW
INDICATE A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGGING
FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF WHEN COMPARED TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
24 HRS AGO. IF THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~35 KT) AND Q-G FORCING BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
595. ncstorm
11:06 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Thursday April 19
KS east - 2 to 3
MO west, north - 2 to 3
OK southwest - 2 to 3
OK north-central - 2 to 3

Friday April 20
AR southwest - 2 to 3
LA northwest - 2 to 3
TX east (east and north of San Antonio) - 2 to 3

Saturday April 21
LA southeast - 3
MS south - 3
AL south - 3
FL panhandle - 3
GA south - 3
FL peninsula (overnight) - 3
PA southeast - 2
MD - 2
VA north and west - 2
VA east - 2
TN east - 2
NC west - 2
GA north - 2
Al northeast/central - 2

Sunday April 22
FL east - 3
GA southeast - 3
SC east - 3
NC east - 3
VA southeast - 3
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13486
594. GTcooliebai
11:04 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
410 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
AND ARE NOW BRINGING THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
THEN OPENING IT UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SATURDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING SUNDAY. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOW DIMINISHED AS IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND/OR INSTABILITY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
593. Chucktown
10:41 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
From SPC this morning...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...FL...

WHILE THE LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ADHERES TO THE OVERALL TRENDS
OF EARLIER MODEL DATA REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NWRN GULF BASIN...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND SWD SHIFT IS NOTED. IN
FACT THE LATEST GFS DIGS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND PREVENTS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SPREADING
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A BAND OF 50-60KT 500MB FLOW EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA BY 22/12Z. GIVEN THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE SERN U.S. TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED/PLACEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE NOTED
DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MORE THEN 5% PROBS.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1664
592. aislinnpaps
10:39 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Another sunny Thursday to be had here. Hope all have a great day.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
591. reedzone
10:37 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Wow, talk about downplaying what could be a serious situation.. SPC boys NOT siding with the EURO on this one, going by the NAM and GFS. I personally believe the storm will be deep and strong enough to support a substantial/widespread Severe Weather Outbreak across the Peninsula of Florida. We should start to see a SLIGHT RISK for Saturday, tomorrow morning as the models come better aligned.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
590. MAweatherboy1
10:27 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting TampaSpin:



First off, i am not sure what you consider a Tornado OUTBREAk....MUST it be 100 or more or is 5-10 sufficent to be an OUTBREAK.....YOU said their would be little chance of any Tornado's and i said the statement was FALSE....and i and the NWS agree your statement was COMPLETELY FALSE! There is a CHANCE of Tornado's and as i said before your CHOICE of WORDS was WRONG! THANK YOU!

Not to be rude but you do realize Saturday doesn't even have a slight risk?
And we could do without the caps. Thanks.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7306
589. VR46L
9:13 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
248. wxmojo 7:34 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

All the howling tells me everything I need to know.

It is time that I shake the dust off my feet from this blog.

I bid adieu, and God bless
.





I will be honest I am an infrequent blogger here but read this blog a lot There are many times I shake my head in despair and disbelief and this morning was one of those times ,I do not know if this person is a genius or someone who is a humorous blogger Who would be described as a troll on this forum . Da Vinci and Galileo Galilei were both mistreated by their peers Yet today their scientific minds are revered throughout the world But it made me extremely sad to see someone treated the way this person was ..There was an extreme ,lack of charity, unkind treatment. And closed minds. if you don’t like what was written then just skip the post or try to reason with the person and not ridicule them..Just my opinion.... It reminded me of what happened a while ago when some great entertaining intelligent bloggers vanished from here …


Weather-wise here Another beautiful day In the British Isles but The weather is due to break on Saturday



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6623
587. aspectre
5:44 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
581 mati: Dudes, what are you smoking?

Getting smoked is for lightweights. Physics is: Sure your idea is crazy, but is it crazy enough to be true?

585 TropicTraveler: Worked at a nuclear plant for some years. Don't see how uranium could possibly be mixed with cooling seawater. The two systems never mix (the coolant is in pipes separate from the pipes with radioactivity.) The nuclear pile could never "sputter off" into the cooling water.

We're talking about broken reactor vessels and cracked coolant lines at FukushimaDaiichi.
Emergency crews were using firehoses mounted on crane booms to spray seawater onto the reactor vessels so that the seawater could provide external cooling. Simultaneously they were furiously pumping seawater into the coolant lines to keep water levels high enough to cool the internal vessels containing the nuclear reaction piles because water was leaking out so fast.
And the reaction piles had already melted through the bottoms of the internal vessels... and probably through the bottom of at least one external vessel; that or it had been cracked all the way through.

What can leak out, can evaporate out when the water becomes superheated enough and/or when the water levels within the reactor vessels fall enough.
Heck, without the zirconium (or equivalent) cladding to hold it in, the surface layer of an enriched uranium rod undergoing normal operating-level fission would sputter at normal operating temperature.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
586. bappit
5:39 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
585. TropicTraveler
5:11 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
522 sunlinepr [quoting Michael Collins]: Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region's famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific: buckyballs.
According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors.


Probably the seawater. As I said when the black smoke arose from the reactor buildings, water pumped up from the ocean would have pulled then pushed LOTS and LOTS of organic(carbon-containing)debris -- including viruses, bacteria, plankton, free-floating fish/etc eggs, hatchlings, jellyfish, and small fish/etc ground by the pumping action -- through the filters.
Spray that heavily organic seawater onto a hot pile, the water evaporates, and the organic compounds deteriorate from the heat to react with each other and superheated steam.

Leaving carbon and carbonaceous goo -- which acts as a moderator (slows neutrons down) that increases the neutrons' cross-section of interaction with the fissionable and fertile nuclei -- building up on&within the nuclear pile.
Ever more neutron-nucleus interactions heats up the nuclear pile -- while the ever-thickening insulating layer of goo and carbon prevents sufficiently effective cooling of that nuclear pile by the addition of more water -- and voila black smoke as the carbonaceous goo is converted to carbon (and hydrogen/etc) by extreme heat (and some normal burning).

The carbon is then heat-sputtered off of the pile into the surrounding atmosphere. Some of that carbon in turn could have become buckyballs, fullerenes, rolled-up graphene sheets, etc (which is also a significant portion of normal soot) as it cooled , enveloping uranium atoms sputtered off the nuclear pile during the buckeyball/etc formation process.


Worked at a nuclear plant for some years. Don't see how uranium could possibly be mixed with cooling seawater. The two systems never mix (the coolant is in pipes separate from the pipes with radioactivity. ) The nuclear pile could never "sputter off" into the cooling water.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
584. TropicTraveler
5:08 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I posted this before and it got no response.



I asked before why we don't get hurricanes off the coast of South America and found out that there are rare instances of them. This is a really cool shot of some heavy weather feeding 91L. I wish it wouldn't - I think we're sailing through it in a couple of days.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
583. AtHomeInTX
4:47 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
What a difference a year makes! I wish I could share it with my fellow Texans farther west. Oh and BTW I want a Bugatti too. :D



Rainfall up 345%
Posted: Apr 18, 2012 8:19 PM CDT Updated: Apr 18, 2012 8:19 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


Rainfall this year is up 345% over last year.

From January 1st, 2011 until April 17th, the area picked up 5.52" which was 8.52" below normal. This year from January 1st through April 17th, we've received 24.58" which is 10.54" above normal.

Now that La Nina has significantly weakened and above normal North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures have returned to normal, the rains have returned.

With the next storm system slated to arrive late Friday/Saturday, the numbers will continue to increase.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
582. mati
4:45 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Like in Chernobyl, red forest appeared in in Fukushima.

Red forest..

The Red Forest (Ukrainian: Рудий ліс, Russian: Рыжий лес), formerly the Worm Wood Forest, refers to the trees in the 10 km² surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The name ‘Red Forest’ comes from the ginger-brown colour of the pine trees after they died following the absorption of high levels of radiation from the Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986.[1] In the post-disaster cleanup operations, the Red Forest was bulldozed and buried in ‘waste graveyards’.[2] The site of the Red Forest remains one of the most contaminated areas in the world today.[3] [Link]


LOL, I'll take your word for it, since you can only reference Cherynobl
Member Since: September 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
581. mati
4:44 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
522 sunlinepr [quoting Michael Collins]: Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region's famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific: buckyballs.
According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors.


Probably the seawater. As I said when the black smoke arose from the reactor buildings, water pumped up from the ocean would have pulled then pushed LOTS and LOTS of organic(carbon-containing)debris -- including viruses, bacteria, plankton, free-floating fish/etc eggs, hatchlings, jellyfish, and small fish/etc ground by the pumping action -- through the filters.
Spray that heavily organic seawater onto a hot pile, the water evaporates, and the organic compounds deteriorate from the heat to react with each other and superheated steam.

Leaving carbon and carbonaceous goo -- which acts as a moderator (slows neutrons down) that increases the neutrons' cross-section of interaction with the fissionable and fertile nuclei -- building up on&within the nuclear pile.
Ever more neutron-nucleus interactions heats up the nuclear pile, then voila black smoke as the carbonaceous goo is converted to carbon (and hydrogen/etc) by extreme heat.

Then the carbon is heat-sputtered off of the pile into the surrounding atmosphere. Some of that carbon in turn could have become buckyballs, fullerenes, rolled-up graphene sheets, etc as it cooled (which is also a significant portion of normal soot), enveloping uranium atoms sputtered off the nuclear pile during the buckeyball/etc formation process.


Dudes, what are you smoking?
Member Since: September 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
580. SubtropicalHi
4:39 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Like in Chernobyl, red forest appeared in in Fukushima.

Red forest..

The Red Forest (Ukrainian: Рудий ліс, Russian: Рыжий лес), formerly the Worm Wood Forest, refers to the trees in the 10 km² surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The name ‘Red Forest’ comes from the ginger-brown colour of the pine trees after they died following the absorption of high levels of radiation from the Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986.[1] In the post-disaster cleanup operations, the Red Forest was bulldozed and buried in ‘waste graveyards’.[2] The site of the Red Forest remains one of the most contaminated areas in the world today.[3] [Link]


From the article: It was the first time in my life to see growing Korean houttuynia totally died.

This is really bad. Korean houttuynia is a major weed that is almost impossible to kill. How sad.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 374
579. MississippiWx
4:21 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
New GFS is coming in a lot weaker and further south with the low this weekend. Kind of odd, but could be a trend that the major models (GFS and Euro) start following the weaker models such as the NAM, CMC, DGEX, etc. Those models were showing all day what the GFS is now showing on the 00z run.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10157
578. wxmod
4:18 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Solar desalination plants and water pipelines costs less than weather modification experiments.

You can also re-use the salt for de-icing roads and bridges.


I don't know if that's true, but changing weather patterns has risks that certainly puts it in a different category.


Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1609
577. nigel20
4:18 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Good night fellow bloggers...i'm off to bed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7484
576. aspectre
4:15 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
571 Skyepony: Odd earthquake swarm in Canada.

I'm wondering whether the recent mini-earthquake booms heard in Wisconsin and in Canada could be related to deep-underground permafrost melting such as those which opened cavernous tunnels that caused the overnight disappearance of a Russian lake and quite possibly a similar overnight disappearance of a lake in Chile as well as elsewhere.
(The existence of the formerly ice-plugged cave beneath that former Russia lake is confirmed.)
ie Like on the Matterhorn, once enough permafrost melts, a major rock fall occurs.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
575. wxmod
4:13 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Why build in a desert? It won't rain! There would be no shortage if we lived where it's naturally meant to be... Well at least untill we can pump massive amounts of salt water to desalinate it. Idk that's my opinion on water shortage im not sure what y'all were even talking about anyway:) night blogger buds!


You are correct. Believe me. I'm not advocating weather modification.
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1609
574. aspectre
3:57 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Thanks! for the large-scale animations in 525, sunlinepr
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
573. nigel20
3:48 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7484
572. DDR
3:42 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at what TAFB added at 00z Surface Analysis.,a surface trough just east of Lesser Antilles. And that will come to PR by the weekend bringing more rain to add to the above normal rainfall totals so far in San Juan.


Neat map,lets hope rainfall remains minimal for everyone's sake,my work requires me outdoors.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
571. Skyepony (Mod)
3:40 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Odd earthquake swarm in Canada.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36179
570. NCHurricane2009
3:39 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at what TAFB added at 00z Surface Analysis.,a surface trough just east of Lesser Antilles. And that will come to PR by the weekend bringing more rain to add to the above normal rainfall totals so far on 2012 in San Juan.



Mmmm...interesting....and its formation is caused by the same upper divergence mentioned in comment 557. However...vertical shear is high for tropical developmment (not that you were suggesting that or anything)...but yes this definetely will be bringing rain if it makes it to your area.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
569. Tropicsweatherpr
3:34 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting DDR:
Hello pottery
plenty wet stuff indeed,exactly 3 inches here today,incredible.


And look at what TAFB added at 00z Surface Analysis.,a surface trough just east of Lesser Antilles. And that will come to PR by the weekend bringing more rain to add to the above normal rainfall totals so far on 2012 in San Juan.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13341
568. DDR
3:30 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Hello pottery
plenty wet stuff indeed,exactly 3 inches here today,incredible.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1627
567. nigel20
3:28 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting pottery:

Trinidad has been very wet as well.

So too Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7484
566. Skyepony (Mod)
3:25 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Like in Chernobyl, red forest appeared in in Fukushima.

Red forest..

The Red Forest (Ukrainian: Рудий ліс, Russian: Рыжий лес), formerly the Worm Wood Forest, refers to the trees in the 10 km² surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. The name ‘Red Forest’ comes from the ginger-brown colour of the pine trees after they died following the absorption of high levels of radiation from the Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986.[1] In the post-disaster cleanup operations, the Red Forest was bulldozed and buried in ‘waste graveyards’.[2] The site of the Red Forest remains one of the most contaminated areas in the world today.[3] [Link]
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36179
565. belizeit
3:24 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting pottery:

Trinidad has been very wet as well.
Makes one wonder what cane season will bring . As doc quoated saying that major hurricanes had seen a increase of 40%.
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
564. pottery
3:21 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

I'm not far away from you...i'm in Jamaica and this would have been the dry season, but it's not dry

Trinidad has been very wet as well.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
563. nigel20
3:20 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting belizeit:
Yes we have bearly seen a dry season this year in march we recorded the wettest year since record keeping started and it looks like april will set records to . I thought we would have it dryer due to La Ninja fading but the carribbean is just to hot so lots of moister gets lifted.

I'm not far away from you...i'm in Jamaica and this would have been the dry season, but it's not dry
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7484
562. pottery
3:19 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting belizeit:
Yes we have bearly seen a dry season this year in march we recorded the wettest march since record keeping started and it looks like april will set records to . I thought we would have it dryer due to La Ninja fading but the carribbean is just to hot so lots of moister gets lifted.

I knew it was something strange going on.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
561. pottery
3:18 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This convection is caused by surface trough east of 91-L (was formerly a cold front attached to 91-L). The surface convergence from that trough is aided by upper divergence ahead of 91-L's parent upper low and west of an E Atlantic upper ridge axis. Westerly vertical shear is really high between the parent upper low and E Atlantic upper ridge axis for any tropical development...but I know what you mean about how weird it is for this time of year in terms of heavy rain and all....

Thanks for that.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
560. NCHurricane2009
3:17 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Dont give uo on an early development before June 1rst. In fact,long range GFS has been showing plenty of moisture in the Caribbean,but we know the drill about long range scenarios.


Well...if any scenarios start solidfying before June 1...I'll be doing updates again ;)....

The long-range models runs did a really good job in foreseeing 91-L...and I keep hunting the NHC webpage and the discussion on this blog for any clues of anything before June 1. We shall see...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
559. aspectre
3:17 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
522 sunlinepr [quoting Michael Collins]: Millions of Southern Californians and tourists seek the region's famous beaches to cool off in the sea breeze and frolic in the surf. Those iconic breezes, however, may be delivering something hotter than the white sands along the Pacific: buckyballs.
According to a new U.C. Davis study, uranium-filled nanospheres are created from the millions of tons of fresh and saltwater used to try to cool down the three molten cores of the stricken reactors.


Probably the seawater. As I said when the black smoke arose from the reactor buildings, water pumped up from the ocean would have pulled then pushed LOTS and LOTS of organic(carbon-containing)debris -- including viruses, bacteria, plankton, free-floating fish/etc eggs, hatchlings, jellyfish, and small fish/etc ground by the pumping action -- through the filters.
Spray that heavily organic seawater onto a hot pile, the water evaporates, and the organic compounds deteriorate from the heat to react with each other and the superheated steam.

Leaving carbon and carbonaceous goo -- which acts as a moderator (slows neutrons down) that increases the neutrons' cross-section of interaction with the fissionable and fertile nuclei -- building up on&within the nuclear pile.
Ever more neutron-nucleus interactions heats up the nuclear pile -- while the ever-thickening insulating layer of goo and carbon prevents sufficiently effective cooling that should have come with the addition of more water -- and voila black smoke as the carbonaceous goo is converted to carbon (and hydrogen/etc) by extreme heat (and some normal burning).

The carbon is then heat-sputtered off of the pile into the surrounding atmosphere. Some of that carbon in turn could have become buckyballs, fullerenes, rolled-up graphene sheets, etc (which is also a significant portion of normal soot) as it cooled , enveloping uranium atoms sputtered off the nuclear pile during the buckeyball/etc formation process.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
558. belizeit
3:14 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

Whats up belizeit...it seem as if most of the Caribbean is having an early start toof the rainy season
Yes we have bearly seen a dry season this year in march we recorded the wettest march since record keeping started and it looks like april will set records to . I thought we would have it dryer due to La Ninja fading but the carribbean is just to hot so lots of moister gets lifted.
Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 915
557. NCHurricane2009
3:13 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I posted this before and it got no response.



This convection is caused by surface trough east of 91-L (was formerly a cold front attached to 91-L). The surface convergence from that trough is aided by upper divergence ahead of 91-L's parent upper low and west of an E Atlantic upper ridge axis. Westerly vertical shear is really high between the parent upper low and E Atlantic upper ridge axis for any tropical development...but I know what you mean about how weird it is for this time of year in terms of heavy rain and all....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
556. PedleyCA
3:13 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Good Night All. Thanks for the article on all the radiation being distributed all over the West Coast. That made me all warm inside.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4949
555. pottery
3:11 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
WE have a lot of native plant species and even some animal and insect species that will probably go extinct over the next several decades, except possibly a few stray transplanted specimens or those on display in some sort of zoo or aquarium.

By mid century, when sea level starts rising in inches or half-inches per year, instead of millimeters per year, it's going to get really bad for what's left of marshlands and the life in them.

True enough.
And rice is a crop that will be one of the first to suffer.
Rice is a staple food for billions.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
553. Tropicsweatherpr
3:11 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I've issued another tropical update on the Atlantic tropics due to Invest 91-L. At the request of some bloggers earlier today...I have added 91-L into its own special features section. I've received positive feedback so far on these detailed discussions and plan to do them daily during hurricane season. If there are any other remarks on how to make it better...etc...you can post on the blog comments.

My latest analysis has forced me to tone down the "hot talk" on 91-L in my update tonight...its running out of time to develop. Sadly, this maybe my last blog update until June 1, 2012...oh well...


Dont give up on an early development before June 1rst. In fact,long range GFS has been showing plenty of moisture in the Caribbean,but we know the drill about long range scenarios.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13341
552. pottery
3:08 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
Quoting spathy:


Ok the removal of fresh water is causing salt intrusion.
I mentioned wells because of something I read a while back about the increase in well drilling in that area(expanding growing area) is causing salt intrusion of the wells.

Refer to #544

Hey, Maybe we should just Desal all the oceans and done.....
LOL, that would solve all our problems for irrigation and so on..

I'm joking, of course.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23115
551. RTSplayer
3:08 AM GMT on April 19, 2012
WE have a lot of native plant species and even some animal and insect species that will probably go extinct over the next several decades, except possibly a few stray transplanted specimens or those on display in some sort of zoo or aquarium.

By mid century, when sea level starts rising in inches or half-inches per year, instead of millimeters per year, it's going to get really bad for what's left of marshlands and the life in them.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1505

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.