91L no concern; more postcards from the AMS hurricane conference

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

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I'm in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. Most of the Hurricane Specialists from the National Hurricane Center are here, and they are keeping an eye on the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, where an extratropical storm has cut off from the jet stream and is slowly acquiring tropical characteristics. This system was designated Invest 91L last night by NHC. Ocean temperatures are around 20°C (68°F) in the region, which is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots. Nevertheless, 91L has managed to develop a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and may continue to show more organization as it moves slowly southeastward over the next day or two. I give 91L a close to 0% chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days, and NHC seems to have stopped issuing new products for the system. By the end of the week, 91L should get picked up by a trough of low pressure and move off to the northeast. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L. The island of Bermuda is seen at the left side of the image.

Global tropical cyclones and climate: current signal
Now, I'll summarize a few of the excellent talks given at this week's AMS hurricane conference. Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research talked about the impact of global warming on hurricane intensities. Using data beginning in 1975, the beginning of the satellite era, he showed that while the total number of hurricanes globally has decreased in recent years, the proportion of hurricanes that are of Category 4 - 5 intensity has increased by 40%. He showed that this change could be related to a 0.8°C increase in global temperature during the period. He concluded that when hurricanes form, they are finding that it is easier for them to reach higher intensities.

Sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to ocean surface warmth
Dr. Jim Elsner of Florida State University showed that observations indicate a sensitivity of hurricane winds of 8.2 m/s +/- 1.19 per degree Centigrade of ocean warmth, using data in the Atlantic from 1981 - 2010 (for oceans areas warmer than 25°C.) Using a high resolution model (HiRAM) with 50 km resolution, a sensitivity of only 1.5 +/- .6 m/s was found, calling into question the usefulness of current models for assessing future hurricane activity.

How will climate change affect hurricane tracks?
Angela Colbert of the University of Miami used 17 global climate models, the BAM hurricane tracking model, and the Atlantic historical HURDAT data base to see how hurricane tracks might change in the future. She classified storms as either straight moving (which tend to hit the Caribbean or U.S. Gulf Coast), recurving landfalling (U.S. East Coast impacts), or recurving ocean storms that miss landfall. She projected a 6% increase in recurving ocean storms and an 8% decrease in straight-moving storms by the end of the century, due to climate change. A decrease of 1- 2 storms per decade is predicted for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and an increase of 1 - 2 storms per decade in the waters of the mid-Atlantic, and along the East Coast of Florida. This occurs primarily because of an increase in westerly winds over the Central Atlantic, and to a lesser degree, an eastward change in genesis location closer to the coast of Africa. Both of these factors would tend to increase the number of recurving storms.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricane23:


Hey pulse!

Looks like the primary risk will be damaging winds associated with a fast moving squall line from the Gulf. However can't rule out tornado potential and hail as well.


That's what I've been saying and the only reason I say potentially deadly is because of the timing of that storm, people will be in bed. Damaging winds can be deadly if people don't get the warning. I think a Moderate Risk for Central/North Florida seems likely Saturday.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I still don't see why some people are expecting a major tornado outbreak in Florida on Saturday... The SPC specifically states that conditions will be favorable for a squall line with very large hail and strong non-tornadic winds the biggest threat. The word tornado isn't even used in the discussion:

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70+KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION.


Of course we will likely see a few tornadoes but probably not many and most likely no very strong ones.


With the specific conditions that the model forecasts are honing in on and that are expected over Florida late Saturday night, there is also the risk of discreet supercell development out ahead of the main squall line.

This can also happen at night over ocean waters, btw, discreet or isolated supercells are not just a land phenomenon. I have seen that happen here in Florida before.

It is true that an organized squall line is not normally the mechanism that will bring with it a significant tornado threat. Then again, with deepening Gulf of Mexico winter or spring time cyclonic low pressure storm systems, there can sometimes be widespread tornadic development even within the main squall line itself. This happened during the famous March, 1993 "superstorm" for one example.

If the current model forecasts hold, Florida could indeed be in for a round of unusually severe weather, including tornadoes, especially because this is happening in late April as opposed to earlier in the year and over cooler Gulf waters, as normally would be the case with a storm setup such as this one.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


If you see this, NHC, you should give 91L a special TWO and give it a 50% orange circle, just to watch this blog go bananas.

Obviously most of the NHC staff is reading this blog right now.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Evening all.

Rocky weekend for Floridians for sure. Has the potential to be one of the strongest squall lines we've seen in a while. Going to buy a new weather radio tomorrow just in case.


Hey pulse!

Looks like the primary risk will be damaging winds associated with a fast moving squall line from the Gulf. However can't rule out tornado potential and hail as well.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

A small weak thunderstorm group on the far east side of a non tropical swirl over 68 degree waters in the off season will not warrant a special TWO... This may have been given a mention if we were in the season but the NHC would be wasting its time issuing products for this.


If you see this, NHC, you should give 91L a special TWO and give it a 50% orange circle, just to watch this blog go bananas.
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395. wxmod
Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025
csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat
by CTJ House - 1996 - Cited by 10 - Related articles
Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025. A Research Paper. Presented To. Air Force 2025 by. Col Tamzy J. House. Lt Col James B. Near, Jr.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
337 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 18 2012

Long term...

the real action this forecast period will be Friday night through
the weekend. Models remain in good agreement concerning the next
system. A vigorous short wave will dive southeastward into Texas
late tomorrow night and into Friday. As the trough axis nears the
Texas/Louisiana border...both the GFS and ecwf continue to
indicate that a closed low will develop in the base of the trough.
This will induce the development of a surface low over south
central Louisiana. As the upper system continues to move slowly
eastward...it will push the surface low and trailing cold front
through the area on Saturday with much cooler and drier high
pressure building into the area on Sunday and remaining in place
through the first part of next week.


The set up is not ideal for severe weather as most unstable air
will be shifting out of the area before the frontal forcing
arrives. However...given the abnormally cold conditions in the middle
and upper levels...any elevated thunderstorms may still be capable
of producing hail. Storm Prediction Center has included the far eastern portion of our
forecast area...mainly eastern Harrison and all of Jackson
counties...in their severe weather outlook for Saturday...where
instability will be better and a squall line may develop as the
cold front moves through the area. The minute details concerning
severe weather potential will continue to be refined over the next
few forecast cycles.


Perhaps of greater impact will be the strong winds that will accompany this system. As the low deepens over the local area... wind speeds will increase and will remain strong Saturday night and Sunday. Sustained winds of 30 to 35 miles per hour on Lake Pontchartrain may bleed over onto the South Shore. The current forecast indicates this possibility with sustained winds of 20 to 25 miles per hour across areas south of the tidal lakes. Wind advisories may be necessary for part of the weekend due to the strong winds.
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Quoting Skyepony:
NASA GMAO GEOS-5 keeps getting deeper with the storm to come across from the Gulf up the east coast.



looks like the low comimg, will be a northern florida then the whole east coast event, we here in central and southern florida will have to deal with the coming cold front with its strong squall line of maybe severe storms....am I correct in this??
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Quoting hydrus:
dx;oiyttibup,ui


Most persuasive arguement of the day!! ;)
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Quoting winter123:


Wake up NHC! 91L has now developed thunderstorms covering the LLC meaning it is fully tropical. But they don't even have a floater on it or 0% chance of development.

A small weak thunderstorm group on the far east side of a non tropical swirl over 68 degree waters in the off season will not warrant a special TWO... This may have been given a mention if we were in the season but the NHC would be wasting its time issuing products for this.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
Evening all.

Rocky weekend for Floridians for sure. Has the potential to be one of the strongest squall lines we've seen in a while. Going to buy a new weather radio tomorrow just in case.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 91L is definitely not warm-core.

Itsa cat-5.....at least..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20975
Quoting hydrus:
dx;oiyttibup,ui

I agree.
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dx;oiyttibup,ui
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20975
Invest 91L is definitely not warm-core.

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384. wxmod
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I would just like to point out that there is absolutely no evidence of weather modification occurring and that simple jet contrails do not cause rain...



You haven't been observing that storm to the north moving south and raining into California. The expanded contrails do not make it rain. They actually inhibit rain. But the storms do move. Keep an open mind.
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Quoting winter123:


Wake up NHC! 91L has now developed thunderstorms covering the LLC meaning it is fully tropical. But they don't even have a floater on it or 0% chance of development.


Because it is frontal and Baroclinic. thunderstorms can form over cold core lows. Lets see what happens tonight, if it maintains, NHC may mention it tomorrow.
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Quoting winter123:


Wake up NHC! 91L has now developed thunderstorms covering the LLC meaning it is fully tropical. But they don't even have a floater on it or 0% chance of development.


I don't think one satellite picture counts...
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381. wxmod
Quoting KoritheMan:


You haven't convinced anyone. Why do you keep trying? You say that you're simply pointing out observations, but it's clear you're just being provocative at this point.


I'm just showing you what's there. Keep watching. You'll see it my way eventually.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


First, there will not be a Day 3 MDT risk for Florida. Those are reserved for exceptionally strong outbreaks with decent model agreement. This is pretty much the opposite.

Second, to use "potentially deadly" this far out is just plain foolish and unnecessary.

Third, there is no model agreement on this system yet. If anything at all happens, it should be confined to mainly a wind threat from a MCS moving across a portion of the state...

IMO, this is nothing to get all drilled up about.


Ok, I am probably over-exaggerating but I do think a Moderate Risk will be issued on that day (Saturday).

As far as when I mentioned "deadly", the models continue to get stronger in each run and also this will be an overnight event when people are sleeping. Tornadoes don't just cause deaths, straight line wind damage can to. Never said this was gonna be a full blown Tornado Outbreak, just a Severe Weather Outbreak.

Per the SPC on the agreement of models..

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND.

No, not in total agreement, but in better agreement and the 18Z continues to show that with a much stronger Gulf Low.

I think this will be a widespread (Moderate Risk) Severe Weather Outbreak with widespread reports. Few tornado reports, scattered hail reports, but mainly wind damage. I point this as potentially "deadly" because of when this happens, people will be sleeping.
I personally am excited to finally track something for Florida. For Floridas standards, this is serious.
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Wake up NHC! 91L has now developed thunderstorms covering the LLC meaning it is fully tropical. But they don't even have a floater on it or 0% chance of development.
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One thing i would like to add though is the very likelyhood of a severe squall line moving through parts of the state including south florida and keys.
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Quoting wxmod:
10 bucks an acre foot is what it costs to make it rain.





Huh?
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Quoting wxmod:
10 bucks an acre foot is what it costs to make it rain.





I would just like to point out that there is absolutely no evidence of weather modification occurring and that simple jet contrails do not cause rain...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


First, there will not be a Day 3 MDT risk for Florida. Those are reserved for exceptionally strong outbreaks with decent model agreement. This is pretty much the opposite.

Second, to use "potentially deadly" this far out is just plain foolish and unnecessary.

Third, there is no model agreement on this system yet. If anything at all happens, it should be confined to mainly a wind threat from a MCS moving across a portion of the state...

IMO, this is nothing to get all drilled up about.


+1
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Quoting Skyepony:
NASA GMAO GEOS-5 keeps getting deeper with the storm to come across from the Gulf up the east coast.





Wow. Maybe this can end the drought and high fire danger in the northeast. Yesturday was so bad we had four brush fires brake out in a matter of hours.
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Quoting wxmod:
10 bucks an acre foot is what it costs to make it rain.





You haven't convinced anyone. Why do you keep trying? You say that you're simply pointing out observations, but it's clear you're just being provocative at this point.
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372. wxmod
10 bucks an acre foot is what it costs to make it rain.



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ok feel free to insult and degrade me but it just seems like here in florida whenever the weather folks start talking up a potential storm .... not much happens. if they down play the situation... then watch out.
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307 1911maker: Most Americans believe that global warming has played a role in a series of unusual weather events during the past year.
327 PlazaRed: ...but if Americans believe in things just because the localised evidence points to it, then what chance have the statisticians got of convincing them that they are being misled? NOW?
Wait it out! But at the end of the day, as that Lincoln chappy said: You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time
.

The problem with elected representative government is that American politicians only have to fool a small plurality of voters* some of the time, ie during the election season.
The rest of the time, representatives can pretty much do whatever they want (except be involved in a sex scandal) and most of the voters will have forgotten about it by the next election season... if those voters were paying any attention at all to what their representative was doing, which is unlikely.
More Americans dislike the Congress(91%)
than the (taxman)InternalRevenueService, than BP during the worst of the Gulf oil-spill disaster(86%), and than being taken over by Communists(89%).
(Soviet-style is what nearly all Americans think of 'communist' with a capital 'C').
Yet most of those same Americans also think that their own representative is doing a fine job. And re-elect them nearly every time they run again for the same office.
(Excepting only circumstances of severe economic downturns, when some in the majority party will be tossed out in elections held as the downturn is still happening.)

* Who are usually a minority of the registered voters during non-PresidentialElection years; and registered voters are usually a minority of the citizens eligible to vote.
ie Usually 1/8th of the total number of the citizens eligible to vote can easily swing a primary election, then more tightly swing a general election in favor of their candidate.
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Quoting Skyepony:
NASA GMAO GEOS-5 keeps getting deeper with the storm to come across from the Gulf up the east coast.




I so wish it was January 18 not April 18
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
368. Skyepony (Mod)
NASA GMAO GEOS-5 keeps getting deeper with the storm to come across from the Gulf up the east coast.



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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
642 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

SCZ039-055-056-182345-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-INLAND GEORGETOWN-WILLIAMSBURG-
642 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WARSAW...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HENRY...JACKSON...MORRISVILLE...
NESMITH...OATLAND...OUTLAND...PLANTERSVILLE...RHE MS...WARSAW AND
YAUHANNAH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 7965 3380 7937 3375 7929 3372 7929
3372 7927 3371 7927 3370 7924 3370 7925
3370 7922 3368 7919 3352 7909 3343 7951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 228DEG 18KT 3355 7950

$$

15
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Quoting reedzone:
What makes Saturdays Severe Weather (possibly Tornado) Outbreak so bad is that this happens overnight Saturday when everyone is sleeping. I believe a Moderate Risk will be issued for Florida late tomorrow for Saturday, last Moderate Risk for the Peninsula was Hurricane Wilma in 2005. This is rare... With high shear values, humidity, heat, and upper level support.. If the models are right, we a potential deadly storm Saturday night.


First, there will not be a Day 3 MDT risk for Florida. Those are reserved for exceptionally strong outbreaks with decent model agreement. This is pretty much the opposite.

Second, to use "potentially deadly" this far out is just plain foolish and unnecessary.

Third, there is no model agreement on this system yet. If anything at all happens, it should be confined to mainly a wind threat from a MCS moving across a portion of the state...

IMO, this is nothing to get all drilled up about.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes,you got it right, as I remember it. He had asked me my real age and that was his response.

Que sera sera!
And I was just off to turn off the electric blanket before falling into another world.
That Lincoln chap had the right idea!
Most people, listen some of the time!
Some of the people listen all of the time!
Not a lot of the people listen all of the time!
You just wait till things start to go wrong and most of the people will be listening all of the time, he didn't think of that one did he? Then again he thought of most things, so he was probably right most of the time as well!
Wish you had him at the helm now?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
Quoting reedzone:


I never said "Tornado" Outbreak, I did hint "Possibly Tornado" do to the factors coming into play with the high shear values and upper level support. I expected widespread reports with wind damage being the biggest threat. Moderate Risk for Severe Storms.

I wasn't really referring to you... I think we could see a moderate risk because the squall line that forms will likely be quite nasty with wind and hail.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I still don't see why some people are expecting a major tornado outbreak in Florida on Saturday... The SPC specifically states that conditions will be favorable for a squall line with very large hail and strong non-tornadic winds the biggest threat. The word tornado isn't even used in the discussion:

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70+KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION.


Of course we will likely see a few tornadoes but probably not many and most likely no very strong ones.


I never said "Tornado" Outbreak, I did hint "Possibly Tornado" do to the factors coming into play with the high shear values and upper level support. I expected widespread reports with wind damage being the biggest threat. Moderate Risk for Severe Storms.
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I still don't see why some people are expecting a major tornado outbreak in Florida on Saturday... The SPC specifically states that conditions will be favorable for a squall line with very large hail and strong non-tornadic winds the biggest threat. The word tornado isn't even used in the discussion:

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70+KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION.


Of course we will likely see a few tornadoes but probably not many and most likely no very strong ones.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7738
Quoting LargoFl:
is that a tornado warning on this radar?
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
537 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

AMZ550-552-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064 -141-144-147-190130-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
537 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

.NOW...THROUGH MID EVENING...THROUGH SUNSET...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND FROM BOTH COASTS. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET AS THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE...AIDED BY AN
APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SLOWLY INCREASING
MOISTURE. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED...BUT EXPECT DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN
TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND COIN-SIZE HAIL.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

TES
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Quoting reedzone:
What makes Saturdays Severe Weather (possibly Tornado) Outbreak so bad is that this happens overnight Saturday when everyone is sleeping. I believe a Moderate Risk will be issued for Florida late tomorrow for Saturday, last Moderate Risk for the Peninsula was Hurricane Wilma in 2005. This is rare... With high shear values, humidity, heat, and upper level support.. If the models are right, we a potential deadly storm Saturday night.
great point made there, most of the severe if it comes, will be late at night when we are all sleeping.
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What makes Saturdays Severe Weather (possibly Tornado) Outbreak so bad is that this happens overnight Saturday when everyone is sleeping. I believe a Moderate Risk will be issued for Florida late tomorrow for Saturday, last Moderate Risk for the Peninsula was Hurricane Wilma in 2005. This is rare... With high shear values, humidity, heat, and upper level support.. If the models are right, we a potential deadly storm Saturday night.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting:-307. 1911maker

"Most Americans believe that global warming has played a role in a series of unusual weather events during the past year."

What are the possibilities of convincing the unbelievers that they are being misled?
I don't want to instigate a global warming fight on a Wednesday night but if Americans belive in things just because the localised evidence points to it? Then what chance have the statisticians got of convincing them that they are being misled? NOW?

Wait it out! but at the end of the day as that Lincoln Chappy said you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time but you can't fool all of the people, all of the time?
I might not remember that totally correctly but I'm sure Grother will!


Yes,you got it right, as I remember it. He had asked me my real age and that was his response.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
615 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-191100-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
615 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND - STAY TUNED...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY OF THE
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THE RISK WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN FACT,
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME BEING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME, DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER,
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. FORECAST DETAILS
ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS,
SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE.

A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT
POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN THIS WEEKEND ON BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST BEACHES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
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Weird Winter - Mad March - Part 2



See Part One here
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Make sure some rain is leftover for Grothar...

Where is he tonight ( seeking out those sunshades?) with nothing going on and all the chance in the world to impress and amazed with his charts of possibilities!
This has got to be the calm before the storms?
Great being on here tonight and I wish you all well, Ive got to bale out now as its after midnight here and the pumpkins are calling!
I'm glad that the stir in the mid Atlantic became 91L as it was about time something popped up!
PS. Pedley, thanks for your enquiry on the blog pages. With Google for emergencies, when all else fails everything just works, switching browsers does the trick although one has to put up with a lot of terminally interesting white spaces.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2072
Quoting Zappy:
Looks like we'll be getting some much needed rain on Sunday through Monday. Can't wait until the next Drought Monitor.
I know.D.C is entering from the abnormal dry to the moderate stage.I don't want a drought like 02 again.I find it ironic though that the trees look really green.I think they may have store water from the summer/fall from last year.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No, I mean 2011.


Yeah, just saw that.. It was a bad squall line for me the day before that... I think this one means business though, concerning widespread reports all over the peninsula. Similar to March 29, 2001.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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