91L no concern; more postcards from the AMS hurricane conference

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on April 18, 2012

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I'm in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. Most of the Hurricane Specialists from the National Hurricane Center are here, and they are keeping an eye on the waters a few hundred miles east of Bermuda, where an extratropical storm has cut off from the jet stream and is slowly acquiring tropical characteristics. This system was designated Invest 91L last night by NHC. Ocean temperatures are around 20°C (68°F) in the region, which is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots. Nevertheless, 91L has managed to develop a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, and may continue to show more organization as it moves slowly southeastward over the next day or two. I give 91L a close to 0% chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days, and NHC seems to have stopped issuing new products for the system. By the end of the week, 91L should get picked up by a trough of low pressure and move off to the northeast. The storm is not a threat to any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 91L. The island of Bermuda is seen at the left side of the image.

Global tropical cyclones and climate: current signal
Now, I'll summarize a few of the excellent talks given at this week's AMS hurricane conference. Dr. Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research talked about the impact of global warming on hurricane intensities. Using data beginning in 1975, the beginning of the satellite era, he showed that while the total number of hurricanes globally has decreased in recent years, the proportion of hurricanes that are of Category 4 - 5 intensity has increased by 40%. He showed that this change could be related to a 0.8°C increase in global temperature during the period. He concluded that when hurricanes form, they are finding that it is easier for them to reach higher intensities.

Sensitivity of the strongest hurricanes to ocean surface warmth
Dr. Jim Elsner of Florida State University showed that observations indicate a sensitivity of hurricane winds of 8.2 m/s +/- 1.19 per degree Centigrade of ocean warmth, using data in the Atlantic from 1981 - 2010 (for oceans areas warmer than 25°C.) Using a high resolution model (HiRAM) with 50 km resolution, a sensitivity of only 1.5 +/- .6 m/s was found, calling into question the usefulness of current models for assessing future hurricane activity.

How will climate change affect hurricane tracks?
Angela Colbert of the University of Miami used 17 global climate models, the BAM hurricane tracking model, and the Atlantic historical HURDAT data base to see how hurricane tracks might change in the future. She classified storms as either straight moving (which tend to hit the Caribbean or U.S. Gulf Coast), recurving landfalling (U.S. East Coast impacts), or recurving ocean storms that miss landfall. She projected a 6% increase in recurving ocean storms and an 8% decrease in straight-moving storms by the end of the century, due to climate change. A decrease of 1- 2 storms per decade is predicted for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and an increase of 1 - 2 storms per decade in the waters of the mid-Atlantic, and along the East Coast of Florida. This occurs primarily because of an increase in westerly winds over the Central Atlantic, and to a lesser degree, an eastward change in genesis location closer to the coast of Africa. Both of these factors would tend to increase the number of recurving storms.

Jeff Masters

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It seems like bad weather always comes on the weekend in Florida. We need the rain though.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's certainly off to a fast start though.

2 invests before May. I wouldnt say a fast start, but I'd say one that has showed promise for what might shape up later.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone from the D.C area on or even someone from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic?.I'm tired of hearing about Florida's upcoming weather.


I'm here!!! Had about .19 inches of rain today, knocked down the pollen levels a bunch!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's certainly off to a fast start though.

Yes it is...hopefully the fatalities will be far below that of last year
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Reading a book and one of the characters say that a storm on the equator is heading their way and their in the Central Pacific. Unrealistic part of a Realistic book O.o
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George Noory can be heard @ 10pm Eastern hereLink
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445. wxmod
Quoting presslord:


yea...but the photon torpedo is a far more efficient force multiplier


The photon torpedo does not solve the world water crisis. Gail Norton (Bush appointed) accurately called the 21st century the century of the water war.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Amazing footage of the EF4 Rice, McPherson, Saline County Tornado.

That clip is part of this longer video shot by Tim Samaras of Team Twistex.

The horizontal vertices reminds me of the 04/27/11 Tuscaloosa tornado and the creepy lightning strike coming out of the tornado reminds me of the 05/22/11 Joplin tornado.
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Quoting nigel20:

An el nino is not yet here, so I doubt that we would feel the effects as soon as May...i'm not saying that May and June will not be active, but I doubt that 2012 will be as active as 2008 and 2011

It's certainly off to a fast start though.
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442. wxmod
Quoting Naga5000:


A fictional, hypothetical piece written in 1996 that has been criticized highly for its inaccuracies. Nice.

Link


The document was published in 1996, (this is the original) and most of it is futuristic gibberish. But there are some interesting trends acknowledged. I would not call it good reading, but it does attest to the urgency of finding the solution to global weather control. Keep in mind this is 1996, and their timeline has proved accurate so far.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't be so sure. La Niña/Neutral conditions promote an active early Severe Weather season (January-May) with less activity the rest of the year. However, an El Niño promotes a lot of activity from May-October. 2012 could be one of the more active seasons this past decade.

I'm predicting a very active May, by the way.

An el nino is not yet here, so I doubt that we would feel the effects as soon as May...i'm not saying that May and June will not be active, but I doubt that 2012 will be as active as 2008 and 2011
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone from the D.C area on or even someone from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic?.I'm tired of hearing about Florida's upcoming weather.

Northeast here :)
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Quoting wxmod:
From the 1996 military document: Weather as a force multiplier - Owning the weather by 2025




yea...but the photon torpedo is a far more efficient force multiplier
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.................notice how the rain gets near tampabay..then vanishes? geez
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Amazing footage of the EF4 Rice, McPherson, Saline County Tornado.
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Quoting nigel20:

2008 and 2011 exploded between April and May and I doubt that 2012 will be able to reach the level of either of the two years

I wouldn't be so sure. La Nia/Neutral conditions promote an active early Severe Weather season (January-May) with less activity the rest of the year. However, an El Nio promotes a lot of activity from May-October. With 2012 going through both La Nina and El Nino, it could be one of the more active seasons this past decade.

I'm predicting a very active May, by the way.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Woah! Dick Clark died!? That's sad. :(


Yeah, pretty shocking if you ask me. He lived his live like a party though, the way a lot of people would.

Pat Summitt "retired" today. It's usually the strongest that develop dementia. What a shame that one of the most influential people has to have that.
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434. wxmod
From the 1996 military document: Weather as a force multiplier - Owning the weather by 2025


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RUN... chicken little... it's a gonna rain in Florida the next couple of days !!!!!!!!!!
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 181755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
154 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IS NOW DEPARTING TO THE NE AS A
WEAKENING LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE GULF COAST. THE
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE FL BIG BEND AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. LATEST
VIS/MSAS ANALYSIS PRODUCTS FROM 17Z SHOW THAT MOST OF THE MAIN LINE
IS BREAKING APART...WITH WEAKENING SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS.

THE RIDGE WILL NOT RETREAT FAR EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA...KEEPING SOME SHOWERS
AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THEN OVERNIGHT...SOME CELLS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS AND DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WITH 20 POPS IN PLACE FOR ALL THE MARINE ZONES AND ALONG THE
COASTLINE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND. 30-40
POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR EACH AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...COOLER ALONG
THE COAST. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH...MID TO
UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND SOUTH...AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH FORECAST TO CUTOFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTING OUT ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST UP INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF A COOL FRONT LEADING TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WE HAVE SEEN IN
MANY WEEKS AND LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE POPS EVEN
HIGHER AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DECENT SHEAR AND
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS SETUP ACROSS THE REGION. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRINGING SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE DAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THEN DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
APPROACH SHORE...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
LIMITING DESTABILIZATION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES...AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS A RESULT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING A GOOD SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO APPROACH
THE FLORIDA COAST. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD
PROBABILITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PUSH ONSHORE AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION VCSH TO INDICATE THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL...BUT PROBABILITIES OF
OCCURRENCE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT MAY FORM. BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY....A STRONG MID
LVL TROUGH DROPS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
REGION...BRINGING A ROBUST COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL
REACH OR EXCEED THE 30 KNOTS RANGE ALONG WITH SEAS WELL ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS. MARINERS MUST REMAIN WELL INFORMED ABOUT THIS
POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 84 69 83 / 20 20 10 30
FMY 69 87 67 86 / 20 40 10 30
GIF 68 87 67 86 / 20 40 10 40
SRQ 70 83 68 83 / 20 20 10 30
BKV 65 85 62 84 / 20 30 10 30
SPG 73 83 71 82 / 20 20 10 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...21/JELSEMA





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Quoting KoritheMan:


I thought Gustav shattered that record? Or maybe just for a hurricane...

The 211 mph in Gustav was the highest wind gust in an hurricane and the third highest wind gust on earth...you can read it on one of Dr. Masters blog post
Link
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Reading this page is the most laughing I've had in a while. At first I thought, Hmmmm. I wonder what that's about. Then I thought, No - it can't be! And then I thought, well I'm 71, maybe the science has gone by me so fast I'm just not getting it. But now I'm making my alum foil cap....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone from the D.C area on or even someone from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic?.I'm tired of hearing about Florida's upcoming weather.
here you go wash..........SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
707 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

MDZ003-004-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>052 -055-056-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-190200-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADI SON-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
707 PM EDT WED APR 18 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ALLEGANY FRONT ACROSS THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S EARLY TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.

$$

SDG
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91L will never be tropical

a few days ago I pointed out that while most of the models strengthened it, they basically kept it cold-core
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Wasnt 91L in blue yesterday?

Yes, but it's moving SE
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Of all the weekends to have rain. :( I was hoping for no moon AND clear sky to see the Lyrids.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well that clears that earlier debate up. Anyways, FL could be in for quite a straight line wind event, this setup us somewhat similar to what CFL saw in March last year, and will probably bring a fair amount of rain as well as flooding to our area. Tampa upwards is in the gun. The tornado threat appears minimal, though TOR:CON for the FL peninsula is a fairly respectable 3 , given that the event is 4 days out.

This could probably trigger the rainy season in FL too, well ahead of what we saw last year. Moisture left over from this event afterwords could cause humidity and dew points to go up, and as the temperatures go up to the 90s in the next few weeks in FL, daytime thunderstorms should be expected daily, instead of the sad events we saw the last two years, contributing to the current drought we're in now.
I hope your right teddy, we sure can use a good rainy season this spring
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40968
Woah! Dick Clark died!? That's sad. :(
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2008 and 2011 exploded between April and May and I doubt that 2012 will be able to reach the level of either of the two years
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
All I know is we need the rain. Yesterday locally here we had a squirrel cross phase two power lines and start a brush fire that burned down a home and threatened several others.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nice forecast huh?


Wish it was mine.
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91L
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Nice forecast huh?

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SPC Day 4 Outlook:



This is for a 30% or greater chance of sever weather within any 25 mile area.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyone from the D.C area on or even someone from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic?.I'm tired of hearing about Florida's upcoming weather.


i think you're SOL on this one.
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Quoting nigel20:

Wasnt 91L in blue yesterday?
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Quoting charlottefl:
Evening All!

From NWS Tampa Bay's Hazardous Weather Outlook:


WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


Well that clears that earlier debate up. Anyways, FL could be in for quite a straight line wind event, this setup us somewhat similar to what CFL saw in March last year, and will probably bring a fair amount of rain as well as flooding to our area. Tampa upwards is in the gun. The tornado threat appears minimal, though TOR:CON for the FL peninsula is a fairly respectable 3 , given that the event is 4 days out.

This could probably trigger the rainy season in FL too, well ahead of what we saw last year. Moisture left over from this event afterwords could cause humidity and dew points to go up, and as the temperatures go up to the 90s in the next few weeks in FL, daytime thunderstorms should be expected daily, instead of the sad events we saw the last two years, contributing to the current drought we're in now.
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Its officially a big one when Florida shows up! Stay safe!
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Nice and some documentation to go along with it.


This is a somewhat famous "research" paper in conspiracy circles. It has been torn apart many times for being inaccurate, and would not survive peer review.
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
Good evening all
My team Barcelona lost 1-0 today to Chelsea in UEFA champions league...we have to beat Chelsea 2-0 or more at the Camp Nou next week
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Quoting Naga5000:


A fictional, hypothetical piece written in 1996 that has been criticized highly for its inaccuracies. Nice.

Link


Nice and some documentation to go along with it.
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Evening All!

From NWS Tampa Bay's Hazardous Weather Outlook:


WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Quoting wxmod:
Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025
csat.au.af.mil/2025/volume3/vol3ch15.pdf

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat
by CTJ House - 1996 - Cited by 10 - Related articles
Weather as a Force Multiplier: Owning the Weather in 2025. A Research Paper. Presented To. Air Force 2025 by. Col Tamzy J. House. Lt Col James B. Near, Jr.


A fictional, hypothetical piece written in 1996 that has been criticized highly for its inaccuracies. Nice.

Link
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Anyone from the D.C area on or even someone from the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic?.I'm tired of hearing about Florida's upcoming weather.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Hey pulse!

Looks like the primary risk will be damaging winds associated with a fast moving squall line from the Gulf. However can't rule out tornado potential and hail as well.


That's what I've been saying and the only reason I say potentially deadly is because of the timing of that storm, people will be in bed. Damaging winds can be deadly if people don't get the warning. I think a Moderate Risk for Central/North Florida seems likely Saturday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.