Postcards from the AMS hurricane conference: Bob Simpson honored

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on April 17, 2012

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I'm in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. The conference started out with a remarkable blast from the past, when Dr. Bob Simpson, one of the originators of the familiar Saffir-Simpson scale, gave the opening talk. Dr. Simpson has been a meteorologist since 1940, and is in amazing shape for someone who turns 100 years old later this year. Dr. Simpson served as director of the National Hurricane Center, and was joined in the audience by two other NHC directors, May Mayfield and BIll Read. Dr. Simpson described his work with civil engineer Herb Saffir, who worked for the United Nations to develop low-cost housing all over the world that could withstand strong winds. Saffir and Simpson worked together, using data from aerial surveys of hurricane damage that began with Hurricane Audrey in 1957, to help develop their famous scale, which assigns a Category 1 through 5 rating to a storm based on its winds. The Saffir-Simpson scale was finally published in 1973, and gained widespread popularity after Neil Frank replaced Simpson as the director of NHC in 1974. The audience gave Dr. Simpson a standing ovation for making the effort to travel here and give a talk.


Figure 1. Dr. Robert Simpson addresses the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society on April 15, 2012, assisted by session chair Dr. Greg Holland.

Hurricane Andrew: 20 years later: What have we learned?
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the incredible devastation wrought in South Florida by Category 5 Hurricane Andrew. Hurricane Andrew was a wake-up call for how poorly buildings were constructed in hurricane-prone areas, and Dr. Tim Marshall of Haag Engineering discussed what we learned from the hurricane. Interestingly, much of Andrew's damage occurred in the storm's outer bands, before the peak winds arrived. The heaviest damage occurred in subdivisions that had poor building codes. Removal of asphalt shingles was a big problem. A lot of shingles were fastened with staples that ripped out, due to poor location, orientation, and depth. Often the secondary felt barrier below the shingles was not glued on, and was ripped away once the shingles ripped away. Once you lose your shingles, you often lose your house, since rain can then get into the house and destroy the interior. Andrew led to a complete revision of the building codes in South Florida, which are now the strongest in the nation. The new building codes, however, still allow for some dubious practices--like stapling shingles to roofs, and the placement of loose gravel on roof tops. Marshall concluded the talk by emphasizing that taping windows doesn't work. Board up your windows, or better yet, use steel shutters.


Figure 2. Hurricane Andrew as it closed in on South Florida 20 years ago. Image credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

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454. nigel20
6:57 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Nige... brought home some paperwork tonight, so I'm just getting a chance to look in the blog... re. the pic of Caribbean Terrace u posted... we r still having some problems in areas of Grand Bahama which were hit by hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. So I can understand what's happened there.

We were lucky as well as both storms missed the island by 20 to 30 miles...so the worst of both storm didn't impact the island
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7480
453. RTSplayer
2:25 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
442 RitaEvac: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find. Other areas melting.

The most likely reconciliation of the low-resolution GRACE measurements not jibing with the comparatively high-resolution measurements of easier-to-access glaciers is that:
Warming keeps some moisture from dropping on lower elevation mountains, then that extra some still in the air is carried to and drops on the higher elevation mountains.


Exactly.

I tried explaining that to people, but they don't listen.

It's perfectly expected, when you think about the fact that high mountains also rise above much of the lower troposphere, greatly reducing the Greenhouse Effect on their summits.

The translation is that a certain portion of the excess heat transports more water to the summit, where it freezes out. However, this does not remotely offset the net losses elsewhere in the region or on the planet as a whole.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1503
452. RTSplayer
2:20 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Yeah, let's all have a group cry about the great temps we have had this spring.


I figure the group cry will be in 3 or 4 decades.


I know, I know, it's hard for most to give a hoot about what happens to their children or grand-children; live for the moment and such.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1503
451. aspectre
1:37 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
450. aspectre
1:36 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
33.7n49.4w, 34.8n51.1w, 35.1n52.6w, 35.2n54.1w, 35.3n55.6w, 35.1n57.3w, 33.9n58.5w, 32.7n59.2w
91L has made the turn SouthSouthWestward as predicted by BAMM.

MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- MIA is Miami,Florida -- BDA is Bermuda
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
449. Jedkins01
1:32 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1:


Someone correct me if I'm off base- the twisting motion of tornado winds cause destruction in the vertical plane, straight line winds from a hurricane in the horizontal. It's the lifting action from the twist that makes it more destructive. A straight line, horizontal wind may blow debris against the side of your home and cause damage, but the lift into the tornado vortex will pick up your home off its foundation and drop it. Think also of a tree- a hurricane wind may bend the tree to the ground and cause it to snap in a weak spot, but a twisting, lifting wind may pull it up out of the ground and turn it into a missile.

I think it also has to do with the depth of the wind field- the lifting action will "pull" the wind energy higher in the atmosphere in a tornado, from the ground up. A straight line wind will be strongest along a more shallow area, and only at a certain altitude.

College was a long time ago- hope I have that correct :)



I think you described this pretty well, the only thing I might add is that tornado winds wouldn't still be exempt from the horizontal plane. When we think of wind in the real world, wind can be expressed as a vector field. Well wind in the real world also encompasses a region in all 3 dimensions. That being said, wind can be expressed as a 3 dimensional vector field, in terms of the X,Y, and Z planes. Because of that, tornado winds would still be causing damage in the horizontal plain, however I think what could then be said is that tornado winds do much more damage in the vertical plane then straight line winds, which can make a huge difference in results.
You did very well actually!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6895
448. ncstorm
1:28 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
the models are all over the place in where this low will track this weekend for the southeast..Texas and LA look to get some action..but if this was to track more inland over the southeast???.look at those numbers..it will be a wait and see scenario

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
447. aspectre
1:23 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
442 RitaEvac: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find. Other areas melting.

The most likely reconciliation of the low-resolution GRACE measurements not jibing with the comparatively high-resolution measurements of easier-to-access glaciers is that:
Warming keeps some moisture from dropping on lower elevation mountains, then that extra some still in the air is carried to and drops on the higher elevation mountains.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
446. Jedkins01
1:20 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting SWFLgazer:


Those people already know what is going on. They aren't stupid. To give a name to this storm is to impress those of us sitting at home; those of us that you want to tell that this is another overly impressive season. In this case, the intent is to show us that all hurricane seasons are above average...The Lake Wobegone of forcasting

Those sailors and companies use private weather services and do not wait for the NWS, NHC or NOAA to tell them about bad weather.




Geeze why are you even going to post in a blog about weather science if you're going to say things like that. So you're telling me the meteorologists at the NHC, NOAA and the NWS are out to cry wolf and have an agenda to convince people that seasons are above average?


And no sorry, sailors and companies don't rely on private weather services for warnings and watches. Only the NWS/NHC/SPC does that, and thank GOD that's true. Imagine if we actually had private weather sources giving us warnings, like Accuweather or Crown weather, what a disaster that would be.


You see my friend, it works the other way around, you have it all backwards. The people at the NWS, NHC and NOAA are not out to prove any agenda, there is no incentive for crying wolf when you work there. Their jobs are strictly to inform people of weather and their potential hazards/dangers to help save lives and make everyone more safe. If you happen to be someone who does love hype and crying wolf, you are not welcome to work at any of those places.



However the same can't be said for private sources, I'm not saying there aren't private meteorologists who don't give good and honest coverage without hyping things to gain ratings. We have a few local meteorologists for example, whom I would consider very credible and don't hype weather for ratings.

But in general, when it comes to a private source, its a company, and most of the time the company's primary goal is going to be whatever it takes to make more money. They are typically more concerned with making more money than accuracy. That means hype, and distortions in whichever way they are told that people are currently wanting to hear the most.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6895
445. ncstorm
1:18 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
aint no telling..

From the HPC discussion

EVENTUALLY ALL OF THIS ENERGY WILL
REACH THE GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH IS FORECAST TO CARVE
OUT AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ACCOMPANIED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.


RUBIN-OSTER
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
444. wxmod
1:15 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Here's a satellite photo of Bejing, China today...and below it is a picture of Bejing's exhaust pipe. Everything you breath in the Pacific NW was in China 3 days ago.



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443. StormTracker2K
12:59 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
442. RitaEvac
12:52 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find


Other areas melting
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
441. NICycloneChaser
12:52 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


What is the problem with not naming? Not enough convection?


Whilst having a well organised circulation, it isn't warm-cored, it's cold-cored. One 'measurement' of this is the amount and depth of the convection, yes.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
440. aspectre
12:50 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
435 nrtiwlnvragn Link

Thanks! I thought I'd leveled down from your ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf , didn't find what I wanted, then leveled back up. And didn't notice the address change to ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf
Admittedly more likely, I started off with the wrong address and didn't notice.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
439. MahFL
12:50 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
but a twisting, lifting wind may pull it up out of the ground and turn it into a missile.


It depends if your talking Cat1 or Cat5 or EF0 or EF5.
Either 5 can make a tree into a missile.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
438. goosegirl1
12:44 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting Jedkins01:



But because of the way tornado winds behave, is there more force overall being applied across a surface than with straight line winds? That is what I am not sure about, I guess having the type of mind that I have I want to know the details, and turning twisting component just doesn't cut it for me, I want to know why the turning/twisting component of tornado winds leads to more destruction. Granted, you must take into account the concentrated debris field in the vortex that acts like missiles of various shape and mass that also does damage, but I would think that's not the only reason for additional destruction.

For example, lets say you have a a given wind at 150 mph flowing into a tornado, as that wind is flowing in, wouldn't the force of wind be applied across a greater surface area than with straight line winds because of the behavior of the vector field? I'm having a hard time expressing this still, textually, I could probably express it better graphically on paper.



Or I could just wait till I take some in depth MET courses on this type of material :)


My observation from watching tornado videos, is that it seems to be that the most damage is done as a tornado is just passing associated with the inflow winds. Maybe its just that wind speed is stronger there, I'm not sure, but I have noticed that frequently.


Someone correct me if I'm off base- the twisting motion of tornado winds cause destruction in the vertical plane, straight line winds from a hurricane in the horizontal. It's the lifting action from the twist that makes it more destructive. A straight line, horizontal wind may blow debris against the side of your home and cause damage, but the lift into the tornado vortex will pick up your home off its foundation and drop it. Think also of a tree- a hurricane wind may bend the tree to the ground and cause it to snap in a weak spot, but a twisting, lifting wind may pull it up out of the ground and turn it into a missile.

I think it also has to do with the depth of the wind field- the lifting action will "pull" the wind energy higher in the atmosphere in a tornado, from the ground up. A straight line wind will be strongest along a more shallow area, and only at a certain altitude.

College was a long time ago- hope I have that correct :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
437. MahFL
12:37 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON


Not many tourists read the NWS forcast discussion lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
436. biff4ugo
12:27 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Has anyone estimated all the extra water the excessive temperatures evaporated?
I'll join the snarky comments about the great temperatures once our rainfall deficit is gone and the fires get put out.

Hopefully that will begin later today.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1501
435. nrtiwlnvragn
12:23 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
Well, ain't that interesting. 91L never happened despite several times within 4/17/2012 and 4/18/2012 being listed there yesterday and earlier this morning.


Link
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434. GeoffreyWPB
12:21 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
433. JNCali
12:15 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Current Conditions care of University of Miami
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
432. aspectre
12:14 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Well, ain't that interesting. 91L never happened... despite several GMT times within 4/17/2012 and 4/18/2012 being listed there yesterday and earlier this morning.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
431. weatherh98
12:07 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




What is the problem with not naming? Not enough convection?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
430. DoctorDave1
12:04 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:
Kinda sad when you have a cold front, and yet it's still a hotter than average past 7 days for the nation.


Yeah, let's all have a group cry about the great temps we have had this spring.
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
429. StormTracker2K
12:02 PM GMT on April 18, 2012
455 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WEST OF SANFORD AND ORLANDO WILL PROVIDE THE
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL EXTENT WILL BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO A DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
428. StormTracker2K
11:53 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
It's been 6 months since the HPC has had the SE US cover in 2" to 4" rains over 5 days. Also these totals across FL are our monthly averages for APRIL.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
427. RTSplayer
11:51 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Kinda sad when you have a cold front, and yet it's still a hotter than average past 7 days for the nation.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1503
426. JNCali
11:42 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
425. GeoffreyWPB
11:35 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATES CHARACTERIZED
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SRN PLAIN STATES TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE FROM THIS POINT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
BECOME INTRODUCED. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THIS UPPER FEATURE
TRANSLATING EAST ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LAG INDICATING A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

PROVIDED THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MENTIONED CONFIDENCE IS NOT
EXACTLY HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AS A RESULT...WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DUE TO THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND THE LOW CONFIDENCE...INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AS MODIFICATIONS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS AS THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
424. StormTracker2K
11:32 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING
RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW
YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES.


SNOW! Frank Strait from Accuweather thinks snow may sneak down into the Southern Appl's. Pretty amazing. I will say though I don't see the cold for rain to trasition to snow but I guess the stronger system will have more pull on the cold further north.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
423. nrtiwlnvragn
11:27 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING
RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW
YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10471
422. StormTracker2K
11:27 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There have been 59 confirmed tornadoes with this past weekend's tornado outbreak, and the Storm Prediction Center estimates the total will be around 75 when all survey's are complete.


Right at my total from Saturday! That was exactly my guess even before the event started.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
421. StormTracker2K
11:25 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting MahFL:
I am not sure this low will even be over water this weekend, NWS JAX says it will track over S GA.


The Euro are 06Z GFS are all in the Gulf now and moving across N FL. I will say though the 06Z GFS is showing a weaker system.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
420. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:24 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
There have been 59 confirmed tornadoes with this past weekend's tornado outbreak, and the Storm Prediction Center estimates the total will be around 75 when all survey's are complete.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
419. StormTracker2K
11:23 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-0 65-182200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD LEVY COUNTY LATER
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL BAY AND SEA
BREEZES.

NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
CENTER AND SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON


Thanks Buddy!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
418. StormTracker2K
11:22 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
417. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:20 AM GMT on April 18, 2012


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
416. LargoFl
10:58 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-182200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD LEVY COUNTY LATER
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL BAY AND SEA
BREEZES.

NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
CENTER AND SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33473
415. MahFL
10:27 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
I am not sure this low will even be over water this weekend, NWS JAX says it will track over S GA.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
414. trunkmonkey
10:20 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting SWFLgazer:


You might. You are the one who is saying that this storm should be named.


OH yeah!

Cookin the books is something government does well!


Just look at the Drought Monitor!


And recently look at the GSA!


Much of it is exaggeration or cookin the books.

For those who don't know what cookin the books means=
It's padding the statistics to justify the means.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
413. trunkmonkey
10:15 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
The SPC has highlighted a day 4 severe threat for this weekend:

Flordia? Really

" DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4.
WITH 50-70 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION
."


So, nothing monstrous--but something to watch, anyway.


All you boys and girls in FLA, be careful!
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
412. Neapolitan
9:12 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
The SPC has highlighted a day 4 severe threat for this weekend:

Flordia? Really

" DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION
."


So, nothing monstrous--but something to watch, anyway.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
411. SWFLgazer
9:06 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
No sense crying over milk that hasn't been spilt.
It hasn't been Named yet, and probably won't be.
...and there should never have consideration of naming it.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
410. aspectre
9:04 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
No sense crying over milk that hasn't been spilt.
It hasn't been Named yet, and probably won't be.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
409. SWFLgazer
8:58 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
Naming a hurricane doesn't tell anybody what they wouldn't know without that naming.
A name is just a useful tool for letting everybody else know what you're talking about upfront... insteada them having to deduce what your talking about from clues gleaned from within your report.


Don't give this storm the name of a tropical storm when this storm is not of tropical origin, does not have tropical characteristics, and never will have. To do so is useful only in inflating the number of named storms at the end of the season.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
408. aspectre
8:42 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Naming a hurricane doesn't tell anybody what they wouldn't know without that Name.
A Name is just a useful tool for letting everybody else know what you're talking about upfront... insteada them having to deduce what your talking about from clues gleaned from within your report.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
407. SWFLgazer
8:32 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
That's like a Coloradan asking, "How is naming a hurricane gonna warn me or anybody else of impending doom?"
Just because they don't live in your neighborhood doesn't make sailors/etc less deserving.


They aren't telling the sailors or anyone else affected what they haven't known for days. A name would be only to impress us coastal living landlubbers, who will in no way be affected. To name this the name of a tropical storm when it it is no way tropical serves only to make those of us who might be listening to ignore the next cry of wolf.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
406. aspectre
8:25 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
404 SWFLgazer: the NHC/etc...is here to provide information that could affect our well being. How is naming this storm going to warn me or anybody else of impending doom?

That's like a Coloradan asking, "How is naming a hurricane gonna warn me or anybody else of impending doom?"
Just because they don't live in your neighborhood doesn't make sailors/etc less deserving.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
405. SWFLgazer
8:23 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
I doubt anyone's still up, but here's my blog update on 91L. For those too lazy to read, I don't think it'll become Alberto.


I apologize for saying that you thought it would become a named storm.
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
404. SWFLgazer
8:09 AM GMT on April 18, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
399 SWFLgazer Those people already know what is going on. They aren't stupid. To give a name to this storm is to impress those of us sitting at home; those of us that you want to tell that this is another overly impressive season.

Apparently you believe that the NHC/etc exists to provide entertainment to the masses.
I hope that you don't find out otherwise on a personal basis.


I'm not suggesting that the NHC/etc is here to provide entertainment. It is here to provide information that could affect our well being. How is naming this storm going to warn me or anybody else of impending doom?
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 447

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.