Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Quoting LargoFl:
i find some of these advanced forecasts simply amazing, in my entire life I have never..never seen baseball or half dollar sized Hailstones...has anyone here?...imagine the damage to your car or windows? I fully guess they do not..come down easy, crash boom, the damage something like that could cause...and worse..suppose You..are outside walking, going shopping etc..and get caught out in the open..gee.....listen to your local forecasts folks..dont laugh them off and not heed their warnings...they are..trying to keep you and yours safe
We had baseball hail 2S of my house during last week's DFW outbreak. It does exactly the kind of damage you'd expect something that big to do :/. I haven't tried but I bet it's nearly impossible to rent a car within 200 miles of here right now.
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Latest Euro model run is out.

Seems to me it's sticking to the guns on just about everything.

Still looks like the 15th at about 7p.m., give or take a few hours, is going to be the worst weather.


It also appears to take "Alberto" below 1000mb...


Latest Candian takes the plains low down to 988mb.

GFS takes it to 988mb consistently, and even one frame at 986mb.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's the impression I'm getting. It's going to be fun to watch. The 12z Euro has it getting pretty close to Bermuda on Wednesday. Of course, with most subtropical systems, the worst weather is way off to the east of the center. We'll see if that's the case with this one as well.

12z Euro for Wednesday:



999mb! if this plays out I would be quite excited
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


With only three days out,it looks like a done deal it will happen.


That's the impression I'm getting. It's going to be fun to watch. The 12z Euro has it getting pretty close to Bermuda on Wednesday. Of course, with most subtropical systems, the worst weather is way off to the east of the center. We'll see if that's the case with this one as well.

12z Euro for Wednesday:

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Quoting Patrap:
Earthquake in Lake Toba 2 days ago.





Yeah.

We can do without that one waking.

Thank you very much.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting MississippiWx:
I know all of the attention is on the Plains severe weather outbreak, as it should be, but don't forget about our little subtropical system in the Atlantic. It's only 3 days out now:

12z Euro:


With only three days out,it looks like a done deal it will happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1 L0 Kiowa OK, 66 dBZ, 35,000 ft., 58 kg/m², 70% Chance severe hail, 100% Chancehail, 1.50 in. per hour, 19 knots (movement),SW (227)
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It just got dark on that chaser video..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
I know all of the attention is on the Plains severe weather outbreak, as it should be, but don't forget about our little subtropical system in the Atlantic. It's only 3 days out now:

12z Euro:
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Quoting RTSplayer:


At the top of wunderground go to "Radar".

If you scroll down without touching anything, there is a spreadsheet usually listed roughly in the order of the most intense warned storms in the nation.

this one is at the top, and is the one closest to Oklahoma City.


It gets updated every few seconds, so it may have already changed since last time I read it.


kk thx
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Quoting weatherh98:


I see 65dbz where do you find this


At the top of wunderground go to "Radar".

If you scroll down without touching anything, there is a spreadsheet usually listed roughly in the order of the most intense warned storms in the nation.

this one is at the top, and is the one closest to Oklahoma City.


It gets updated every few seconds, so it may have already changed since last time I read it.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Earthquake in Lake Toba 2 days ago.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i find some of these advanced forecasts simply amazing, in my entire life I have never..never seen baseball or half dollar sized Hailstones...has anyone here?...imagine the damage to your car or windows? I fully guess they do not..come down easy, crash boom, the damage something like that could cause...and worse..suppose You..are outside walking, going shopping etc..and get caught out in the open..gee.....listen to your local forecasts folks..dont laugh them off and not heed their warnings...they are..trying to keep you and yours safe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i find some of these advanced forecasts simply amazing, in my entire life I have never..never seen baseball or half dollar sized Hailstones...has anyone here?...imagine the damage to your car or windows? I fully guess they do not..come down easy, crash boom, the damage something like that could cause...and worse..suppose You..are outside walking, going shopping etc..and get caught out in the open..gee.....listen to your local forecasts folks..dont laugh them off and not heed their warnings...they are..trying to keep you and yours safe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Cell is REALLY intensifying now.

G0 Caddo OK 71 dBZ 37,000 ft. 55 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 27 knots SW (226)


that's going to come very, very close to Oklahoma City.


Looks like right over or slighty north of okc
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Link

live dashcam footage from severe warned cell approaching OKC - wall cloud clearly visible
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No change to the big rain event in PR on the latest discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...A COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY. AFTER THE FROPA A
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MAS WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST MID WEEK.


DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTED A SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE/SINK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND LASTING POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION TO THE PASS
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOCUSING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
SOUTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE FROPA...INDUCING A VERY DRY
WEATHER...WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN
THE RANGE OF 1.40-1.60 INCHES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.0 INCHES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND DECREASING RAPIDLY
AFTER THAT.
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Quoting nigel20:

Whats up hydrus...hopefully people will heed all the warnings to reduce the level of injuries or death
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22697
Quoting RTSplayer:
Cell is REALLY intensifying now.

G0 Caddo OK 71 dBZ 37,000 ft. 55 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 27 knots SW (226)


that's going to come very, very close to Oklahoma City.


I see 65dbz where do you find this
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Cell is REALLY intensifying now.

G0 Caddo OK 71 dBZ 37,000 ft. 55 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 27 knots SW (226)


that's going to come very, very close to Oklahoma City.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
the wording from the SPC for the southern part of the high risk area doesnt really impress me.
The upper part sounds worse.


It's a high risk on Day 2. It's impressive.
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vHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098 -101>106-141745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MA RIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-P OLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRI GHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONAL D-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL
MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF PENNIES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.

GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI WHERE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH WILL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINES OF STORMS THAT PUSH IN FROM EASTERN
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLOODING FOR AREAS
NORTH OF A TABLE ROCK LAKE TO ROUND SPRING LINE. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING
MAY BE IN THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS BEING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS. THE THREAT FOR ANY TORNADOES
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT THREAT MAY INCREASE IF
GREATER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. AT THIS TIME...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS THAT IT WILL EXIST
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A
LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO TABLE ROCK LAKE LINE.

THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME FLASH
FLOODING ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

MEANWHILE...GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT
TIMES. BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO VIENNA LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

SCHAUMANN
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The latter.
Well that's just fabulous /sarcasm.

Time to get on the phone and make sure the family knows since they all live in the High Risk areas. Though, I'm sure they know and I'm preaching to the choir.

Aside - I am the only member of my extended family to not have experienced a direct hit or near miss by an EF-4 or EF-5. No bonus points have been awarded for the hurricanes I lived through or the EF-1 I experienced.

All the historic tornadoes that have been discussed here recently (Wichita Falls, the Moore, OK tornadoes, etc...) I have photos, bits of former family homes and lots of stories about. They're in the genealogy box for the next generations to read about.
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Quoting BrowardJeff:



I'm actually in the Sawgrass Mills area, which they specifically call out in the advisory. Sitting in a cube farm by a window, watching the rain.

It's calming down right now..and the storm advisory seems to have been allowed to expire.

The flood advisory out east is still valid.
ok thanks, I'm glad someone is finally getting some rain..partly cloudy here right now with the sea breeze, but not a drop here
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Vil on the two strongest cells are 55 and 60 now.

Already up to 2 inches max hail.

Plus they got dual pol radars now, so it's a good estimate.

I guess that means it's started for today.

Nasssty stuff.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting entrelac:
So will the storms tomorrow be slow movers or will they be screaming across the Plains at 60mph?

The latter.
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cloud tops to 40k now
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
So will the storms tomorrow be slow movers or will they be screaming across the Plains at 60mph?
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Wow.

Strongest cell labeled "DO" severe hail, headed straight for Oklahoma City. I mean right down the pipe too.

I think that's the one that prompted the watch box already.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
The first advisory of the big rain event expected in PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
230 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

PRC007-025-035-041-045-129-132030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0118.120413T1830Z-120413T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-AGUAS BUENAS
PR-
230 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIDRA...COMERIO...SAN LORENZO AND AGUAS BUENAS

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 224 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN INTERIOR MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING ACROSS CAGUAS AND CIDRA. AT LEAST ONE
INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR MAY BE OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6616 1815 6594 1809 6599 1818 6624

$$

EM
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Two high risks on a Day 2 Outlook...simply amazing.
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Quoting ncstorm:


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.


tops at 550 = 55,000 feet.
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Quoting LargoFl:
anyone here in fort lauderdale etc? they are also watching out for funnel clouds, be careful down there.


I'm actually in the Sawgrass Mills area, which they specifically call out in the advisory. Sitting in a cube farm by a window, watching the rain.

It's calming down right now..and the storm advisory seems to have been allowed to expire.

The flood advisory out east is still valid.
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Quoting hydrus:

Whats up hydrus...hopefully people will heed all the warnings to reduce the level of injuries or death
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

TORNADO WATCH 160 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-051 -053-055-057-
065-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-109-113-117-11 9-137-141-149-
140200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0160.120413T1830Z-120414T0200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GRADY
GRANT GREER HARMON
JACKSON KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN
MAJOR MCCLAIN NOBLE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE STEPHENS TILLMAN
WASHITA


TXC155-197-485-487-140200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0160.120413T1830Z-120414T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FOARD HARDEMAN WICHITA
WILBARGER


ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN OK AS THE CAP
HAS WEAKENED WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
SUBTLE...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TOWARD NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MOISTURE AS IT RETREATS NWWD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM WILL FAVOR FORMATION OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN
INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH
TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A SUBSEQUENT
INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
First Tornado Watch

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Re: #88 -- an outflow boundary has appeared. Wish it were coming to Ft. Myers/Cape area!
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Quoting txjac:
Puerto Rico looks to be getting some bad weather right now. Hope all of our friends are doing well


Yes,we will have another big rain event this weekend,nothing new so far this year as it has been a wet start.

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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22697
anyone here in fort lauderdale etc? they are also watching out for funnel clouds, be careful down there.........................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172-173-131830-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
202 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
NORTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27...
WESTON...
SAWGRASS MILLS MALL...
DEERFIELD BEACH...
INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...
SOUTHWEST RANCHES...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2584 8014 2585 8015 2588 8015 2584 8017
2582 8017 2580 8014 2582 8017 2580 8018
2591 8061 2649 8064 2675 8050 2654 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 317DEG 13KT 2613 8043

$$
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at least someone in florida got some rain.................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

FLC011-131915-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0004.120413T1720Z-120413T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
120 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT LAUDERDALE...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY METRO
AREAS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FT. LAUDERDALE. IN ADDITION TO THE
CURRENT HEAVY SHOWERS...PREVIOUS HEAVY SHOWERS RESULTED IN RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISED AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS,
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS
AND DITCHES.

LAT...LON 2615 8021 2614 8015 2614 8012 2608 8012
2607 8015 2607 8021

$$

60
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113. txjac
Puerto Rico looks to be getting some bad weather right now. Hope all of our friends are doing well
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I ran across this great time exposure from last night's thunderstorm in San Francisco showing eight separate lighting bolts hitting the Golden Gate Bridge:

Click for larger image:
lightning


Explanation here.

That's a nice image Nea...
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California..that low is powerful



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
.
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From Wichita NWS Discussion..these people are going to have to ride out terrible weather at night

SAT:
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING ON
SAT.

ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION ENDS...FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG A LINE
FROM KHYS TO NEAR KP28. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE FROM KSLN TO KICT
WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 70 KTS...PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE AND 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 400-500 M2/S2 SUGGEST LARGE
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...WHICH LOOKS IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
AND STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
UNTIL MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES TOWARDS 00Z/SAT...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THEN. WITH THIS
SAID...NAM/WRF FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KICT AT 03Z/SAT LOOKS LIKE THE
PROVERBIAL "LOADED GUN"...WITH SUPERCELLS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
LOOKING VERY LIKELY SAT EVENING FROM KSLN TO KICT.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
COULD SEE A TORNADO OUTBREAK SAT EVENING. A LARGE CONCERN EXISTS
THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET
SAT EVENING...AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND CIN VALUES REMAIN LOW
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR A LONG TRACK TORNADO CONTINUING LONG AFTER DARK.
STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT TORNADOES AFTER DARK SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF LIFE.
SPC COORDINATED WITH THE LOCAL
OFFICES AND THEY HAVE GONE WITH A RARE DAY2 HIGH RISK ACROSS THE
AREA.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting StormTracker2K:


This is the result. You guys could be in Dust bowl type conditions by July.



Second order positive feedback.

I wonder how much this is going to effect lake levels due to increased evaporation? Convection down wind from the lakes?

Could be a big deal if this starts happening every year.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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