Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


There's the 60%
Tornado probability not total severe. -_-
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


There's the 60%



thats old


here the new


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Repost...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Now that would be incredible. Two named storms in April.

I beleive the 2nd system has about the same amount of chance as any other april system on a normal season. The system the models have been first indicating... Thats another story, it has a good chance in my mind.

Just made a quick blog on the possibility of Alberto next week..
Subtropical Storm Alberto?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HrDelta:
I'm a student at OU. What does the situation look like for the rest of the night?


It's moving slow, but I think it's a matter of time before one of these works it's way up in that general direction.

If I lived up there right now I'd sure as heck stay glued to a radar graphic and a radio.


these cells spit out a tornado for a few minutes and then sort of recycle, so there might not be a lot of warning at all.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520


There's the 60%
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think we are about to witness..weather history this weekend, me I hope it fizzles out, alot of good people are going to be suffering come momnday morning if this pans out like they think its going to
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41550
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is that real?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, even Diane Sawyer had a segment on it this evening. They don't normally do anything on weather unless the expeations are high. This week-end should be interesting. I just hope it is not as bad as they say
You know, Grothar there's a deal going on that only started in December called Weather Ready Nation. An outgrowth of last year's severe. Gov't agencies and "partners." Media being a big one. Purpose to get the word out to the public in ways they understand. Sounds like it's kicking into gear.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
There has never been a 60%. If a 60% were to occur the area would most likely be devastated beyond imagination.

There actually has.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11690
this from the storm prediction center........This weekend's outbreak could be a "high-end, life threatening event," the center said.


Read more: http://newsok.com/forecasters-say-saturday-storms- life-threatening/article/feed/370542#ixzz1rybsPs8d
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41550
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
There has never been a 60%. If a 60% were to occur the area would most likely be devastated beyond imagination.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32681
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Now that would be incredible. Two named storms in April.

I beleive the 2nd system has about the same amount of chance as any other april system on a normal season. The system the models have been first indicating... Thats another story, it has a good chance in my mind.

Just made a quick blog on the possibility of Alberto next week..
Subtropical Storm Alberto?
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do you think we will have a small area of 45% tornado risk issued tomorrow or just 30%?

Depends on the forecaster. A 30% hatched is likely to be issued tomorrow morning though. Not sure about the afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32681
I'm a student at OU. What does the situation look like for the rest of the night?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


or maybe they will go with a 45 and then put a 60 where the storms initiate.
There has never been a 60%. If a 60% were to occur the area would most likely be devastated beyond imagination.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Personally, I think they'll use the 30 as the highest end risk for the first outlook or two and then possibly ratchet it up to the extremely rare 45% in the afternoon.

But then again, just my complete guesswork. :P
Was just wondering cause today was only the second time a high risk was issued a day before the actual event so they must bee pretty sure about it.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
858 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

MOZ041-048-050-140245-
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-
858 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLE...CALLAWAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTERTOWN...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
CALIFORNIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
ASHLAND...
FULTON...
NEW BLOOMFIELD...
AUXVASSE...
WILTON...
HARTSBURG...
GUTHRIE...
CARRINGTON...
KINGDOM CITY...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

$$

BYRD
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41550
Live feed video


Link
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do you think we will have a small area of 45% tornado risk issued tomorrow or just 30%?

We migh see some 45% tornado risk IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Personally, I think they'll use the 30 as the highest end risk for the first outlook or two and then possibly ratchet it up to the extremely rare 45% in the afternoon.

But then again, just my complete guesswork. :P


or maybe they will go with a 45 and then put a 60 where the storms initiate.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Good evening...Severe weather in the central US dominating the blog scene tonight by far. I've been seeing the tornadic T-storm hook echos and am impressed....

Thanks for the update NCHurricane2009
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do you think we will have a small area of 45% tornado risk issued tomorrow or just 30%?

Personally, I think they'll use the 30 as the highest end risk for the first outlook or two and then possibly ratchet it up to the extremely rare 45% in the afternoon.

But then again, just my complete guesswork. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11690
Has a vortex signature, and appears to be in the warned box, but it's moving NW.

N8 Caddo OK 68 dBZ 44,000 ft. 73 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.25 in. 12 knots SW (214)
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Grothar:


I bet you looked that up. :(
It's called Technology Grothar :).LOL.
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thats not good at all

000
FXUS64 KOUN 132354
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
654 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.


.DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ISO TO SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF KAXS TO
KADH LINE BEFORE WEAKENING 05-09Z. KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO IN THESE
LOCATIONS INCLUDING KOKC AND KOUN. IF STORM DIRECTLY AFFECTS THESE
LOCATIONS...GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OR MVFR THROUGH 05Z BEFORE MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA. KOKC...KOUN...AND KHBR
HAVE BEST SHOT FOR MVFR BEFORE 05Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEARLY ANYWHERE 05-17Z...THOUGH BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER FAR WEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS 15-20Z.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012/

DISCUSSION...
BUSY EVENING EXPECTED AS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE
WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
WANING.

ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WORKING EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AGAIN
TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. AS THE
MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

PRECIP ENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY WITH MUCH OF NEXT OF
NEXT WEEK LOOKING DRY AND MILD.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16197
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, even Diane Sawyer had a segment on it this evening. They don't normally do anything on weather unless the expeations are high. This week-end should be interesting. I just hope it is not as bad as they say
this afternoon the weather guy on cnn said that tomorrow there could be 100's of tornado's..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41550
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Based on velocity data, the middle one looks stronger to me.



but the first has stronger rotation higher up, and is a bigger more robust storm with a better hail core, a lot of which is still aloft.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Wow the eastern storm has a tight cuplet right now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
LLJ's kicking in. SRH=300-400.

I see you caught the new watch till 4 am.
:)
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When are the storms supposed to die, after these move through?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Jeez the eastern most of the three supercells is forming a monster of a hook.

You totally called it, that one now has a tornado warning.

TORNADO WARNING
OKC015-075-140215-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0015.120414T0144Z-120414T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
844 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 841 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CARNEGIE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANADARKO...CARNEGIE...FORT COBB AND GRACEMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE IN THE DARK. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 9824 3496 9813 3498 9864 3509 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 248DEG 27KT 3503 9858

$$

MAXWELL
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11690
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We'll have PDS Watches tomorrow..
Do you think we will have a small area of 45% tornado risk issued tomorrow or just 30%?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.


I bet you looked that up. :(
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Based on velocity data, the middle one looks stronger to me.

Not for long.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Good evening...Severe weather in the central US dominating the blog scene tonight by far. I've been seeing the tornadic T-storm hook echos and am impressed....

Yeah, and most likely, this is a mere prelude for tomorrow evening unfortunately.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11690
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
new big time watch:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 835 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER
SWRN OK /FROM W LTS TO NW FSI/ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT VAD
OBSERVATIONS FROM FREDRICK OK AND TWIN LAKES OK INDICATE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
300-400 M2/S2. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE DICTATED BY ABILITY OF STORMS
TO MANAGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY
CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ARE INCREASING WITHIN A
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WAS NOT OVERTURNED BY EARLIER CONVECTION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.


...MEAD

We'll have PDS Watches tomorrow..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32681
Quoting floridaT:
Just got home have there been any confirmed strong tornadoes today


The one that started near Altus at one time was large enough to be multi-vortex, which was confirmed by a spotter at the time. It is currently the eastern-most hooked storm we're watching now.


It cycles in and out of tornadic conditions.


Have seen some very large rainfall and very large radar indicated hail...above 4 inches a time or two, and regularly at or above 3.5 inches max hail size.


the Norman area near Oklahoma City was also hit by a small tornado and suffered some localized extensive damage, roofs blown off, etc. It was not wide spread, but just scatterd, spotty damage from what I saw.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting LargoFl:
all the weather guys know something big is shaping up, i'm afraid if they are right, alot of people are going to be hurting this weekend


Yes, even Diane Sawyer had a segment on it this evening. They don't normally do anything on weather unless the expeations are high. This week-end should be interesting. I just hope it is not as bad as they say
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Jeez the eastern most of the three supercells is forming a monster of a hook.

Based on velocity data, the middle one looks stronger to me.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11690
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!


Good evening...Severe weather in the central US dominating the blog scene tonight by far. I've been seeing the tornadic T-storm hook echos and am impressed....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
new big time watch:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 835 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160...WW 161...WW 162...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER
SWRN OK /FROM W LTS TO NW FSI/ IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL OK LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT VAD
OBSERVATIONS FROM FREDRICK OK AND TWIN LAKES OK INDICATE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF
300-400 M2/S2. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE DICTATED BY ABILITY OF STORMS
TO MANAGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ELSEWHERE...A SECONDARY
CORRIDOR OF TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ARE INCREASING WITHIN A
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WAS NOT OVERTURNED BY EARLIER CONVECTION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020.


...MEAD
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11690
TORNADO WARNING
OKC015-075-140215-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0015.120414T0144Z-120414T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
844 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 841 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF CARNEGIE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANADARKO...CARNEGIE...FORT COBB AND GRACEMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET IN...GET DOWN AND COVER UP. TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER
OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND
WINDOWS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE IN THE DARK. DO NOT
WAIT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 9824 3496 9813 3498 9864 3509 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 248DEG 27KT 3503 9858

$$

MAXWELL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41550
Quoting AussieStorm:
Are there any flash flood warnings out,,, there is some area's that have had 7" from the 1st storm and will cope a few more with the following storms.


Yeah, I see one radar estimates 6.8 inches.

Was so busy watching the hail and vortex stuff I wasn't really paying attention to the rainfall totals.

Flooding could become a concern, especially through additional lines of storms over the next few days.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting aspectre:
327 Grothar: ...an article by Dr. Forbes detailing the 1 0 worst tornados in US history.
The interesting thing is that not one from the Super Outbreak of 1974 was on the list.


Just out of curiosity, does anyone know of tornadoes that struck outside of the continentalUS that would exceed any of the 10WorstUSTornadoes in terms of casualties&damage?


I don't know, but I remember one in Portugal in the mid 1950's that was very bad. India and Bangladesh get a lot, but I don't know if they are as strong as here. Good question/.
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Just got home have there been any confirmed strong tornadoes today
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
TWC has stopped coverage at a time like this???.What a sorry excuse for a weather channel they have become.I'am to through now.I'am officially done with them.Bye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
327 Grothar: ...an article by Dr. Forbes detailing the 1 0 worst tornados in US history.
The interesting thing is that not one from the Super Outbreak of 1974 was on the list.


Just out of curiosity, does anyone know of tornadoes that struck outside of the continentalUS that would exceed any of the 10WorstUSTornadoes in terms of casualties&damage?

Unfortunately, poor Bangladesh gets quite a few violent tornadoes and they just so happened to have the deadliest of all time. The Daulatpur-Saturia, Bangladesh Tornado on April 26, 1989 was an extremely destructive and deadly tornado. It killed 1,300 people. They official rating in unknown because of poorly built structures.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jeez the eastern most of the three supercells is forming a monster of a hook.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting aspectre:
327 Grothar: ...an article by Dr. Forbes detailing the 1 0 worst tornados in US history.
The interesting thing is that not one from the Super Outbreak of 1974 was on the list.


Just out of curiosity, does anyone know of tornadoes that struck outside of the continentalUS that would exceed any of the 10WorstUSTornadoes in terms of casualties&damage?


Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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