Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Is the tornado outbreak tomorrow going to be the worst in US history? I am not a big severe wx expert...but there is a lot of ominous talk on here tonight...


No. It's just supposed to be a big day.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Well at least you keep it interesting. A lot of folks here too lazy to even put one up. But yet you have an endless supply. Too funny.
Their is plenty of more where that came from.

Nigel20.Things could be getting nasty in the Caribbean this year.That's if El nino doesn't take shape soon.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Is the tornado outbreak tomorrow going to be the worst in US history? I am not a big severe wx expert...but there is a lot of ominous talk on here tonight...

Nah...it's going to be extreme though. Probably one of the worst non-Super Outbreak (1974/2011) outbreaks in history.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes :).


Well at least you keep it interesting. A lot of folks here too lazy to even put one up. But yet you have an endless supply. Too funny.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Is the tornado outbreak tomorrow going to be the worst in US history? I am not a big severe wx expert...but there is a lot of ominous talk on here tonight...
Won't know till Sunday.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
The TCHP is really increasing....especially in the Caribbean

April 12, 2011

April 12, 2012
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Is the tornado outbreak tomorrow going to be the worst in US history? I am not a big severe wx expert...but there is a lot of ominous talk on here tonight...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting PedleyCA:


did you just switch avatars. it changed right before my eyes.
Yes :).
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Dang, that is one crazy hodograph!

Yep.

We may see a 45% tornado probability issued tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Its not over just yet storm behind the newly formed line is looking like it wants to drop a tornado.



Yes.

There is a cell WSW of Clinton/WNW of Hobart with a very severe hail core and possible hook forming right now.

Been watching it for a while, but it's on the boundary of the radar, so it's hard to get a good view of it.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm I don't feel wanted here.Interesting the models develop 2 sub-tropical systems.


did you just switch avatars. it changed right before my eyes.
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Quoting DDR:

Interesting, the weather seems crazy just about everywhere these days.A big rain event seems possible for the Windward islands starting next Thursday according to the gfs and nogaps. Rainfall in April is usually the second or third lowest for the year.

If you don't mind, where are you located? I'm located in Jamaica
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Yeah, it's about that time again.

Epic hail core is back again.

Z0 72 dBZ 40,000 ft. 70 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance >4.00 in. 25 knots WSW (240)


I guess we'll see a tornado warning again in about 10 minutes.


Figure only reason hasn't done it again so far is the cells got too close together and may have robbed one another's inflow.
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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
I hope people in those areas that are going to be affected listen to the warnings and have their natural disaster kits ready.
In your kit you should have

First aid kit
Batteries
Cash$$
Flashlights
Canned goods
Noaa radio(or which ever one you have)
Important papers
Does a cell phone count?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Run away-worthy:


Dang, that is one crazy hodograph!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
Quoting DDR:

Interesting, the weather seems crazy just about everywhere these days.A big rain event seemly like for the Windward islands starting next Thursday according to the gfs and nogaps. Rainfall in April is usually the second or third lowest for the year.


So far 2012 in San Juan,Puerto Rico 18.05 inches has falled and that is well above normal. (8.31 inches) All the unusual rainfall has fallen on the driest months of Febuary and March as you can see at link.

Link
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Its not over just yet storm behind the newly formed line is looking like it wants to drop a tornado.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Run away-worthy.

No, not really, it just warrants extreme attention to the weather tomorrow night.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, 1900. That map is 6 minutes old. Don't you have anything newer. By the way, were you born in 1900? I thought maybe we could have gone to school together.

Nope, I was born in 1991 actually. I turn 21 in a little over two weeks. :P
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
Quoting 1900hurricane:
The triplets look like they are more or less congealing into one.



Hey, 1900. That map is 6 minutes old. Don't you have anything newer. By the way, were you born in 1900? I thought maybe we could have gone to school together.
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586. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The big rain event for Puerto Rico on Saturday and Sunday is imminent as the updated discussion mentions.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...INDUCED LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...IN COMBINATION WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...GAVE WAY TO ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EVENTUALLY LEAD TO RAPID RIVER RISES...ALONG WITH URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. BY LATE EVENING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS HAD MOVED OFF OR CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. DURING THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS NOW
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
TO CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARDS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND AFFECT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATER OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND USHER COOLER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HOWEVER INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
INCREASE THE NORTH NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

IN ADDITION...SHORT PERIOD SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND DRIVEN SWELLS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON... PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVE ACTION ON ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINES.
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL AND MARINE
HAZARD MESSAGES.

Interesting, the weather seems crazy just about everywhere these days.A big rain event seems possible for the Windward islands starting next Thursday according to the gfs and nogaps. Rainfall in April is usually the second or third lowest for the year.
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GFS 24 hours out. (Hey Taz, How old is this?)


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Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm I don't feel wanted here.Interesting the models develop 2 sub-tropical systems.


Don't feel wanted? What makes you say that? LOL...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Mmmm I don't feel wanted here.Interesting the models develop 2 sub-tropical systems.
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Doesn't anyone think it odd that for the past 4 hours all severe weather in Oklahoma has spawned and moved along a straight corridor passing through Oklahoma City? One would think that the whole system would migrate some, and it will suddenly migrate in an hour or two.

The below site provides some pretty interesting observations and possible explanations for this lack of migration.

askwhy333.minus.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The big rain event for Puerto Rico on Saturday and Sunday is imminent as the updated discussion mentions.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

.UPDATE...INDUCED LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...IN COMBINATION WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...GAVE WAY TO ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA EVENTUALLY LEAD TO RAPID RIVER RISES...ALONG WITH URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. BY LATE EVENING THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS HAD MOVED OFF OR CONTINUED TO DIMINISH. DURING THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS NOW
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
TO CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARDS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND AFFECT
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATER OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS...AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WITH BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND USHER COOLER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL HOWEVER INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
INCREASE THE NORTH NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

IN ADDITION...SHORT PERIOD SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND DRIVEN SWELLS WILL QUICKLY
BUILD SATURDAY AFTERNOON... PEAKING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVE ACTION ON ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINES.
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL AND MARINE
HAZARD MESSAGES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We will definitely see the new type of warnings tomorrow.
Well Wikipedia already has a page for tomorrow. That is not good if you ask me.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting aspectre:
CybrTeddy: Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.
525 Grothar: I bet you looked that up. :(

He's got me beat. I don't even know the combination of keywords that'd get me that kind of info on a search frontpage or so.


Bangladesh is so densely packed, any tornado or tropical cyclone will have horrific effects. Of course, Bangladesh is probably of the most hazard-prone nations on the planet. Well placed for both Tropical Cyclones and Tornadoes, and extremely close to active fault lines.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
this afternoon the weather guy on cnn said that tomorrow there could be 100's of tornado's..


It is looking worse everytime they update it.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141 000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
922 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NOW INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT EXISTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THAT CAN GET GOING.

THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OK
WILL MAKE IT OVER INTO EASTERN OK AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THEY
DO...LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...IF STORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OK END UP TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY EVENING. STRONG
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND
ROTATE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ON SATURDAY...INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS.

A SQUALL LINE WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. DAMAGING
WINDS BETWEEN 70 AND 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE. STORMS
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
We will definitely see the new type of warnings tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting aspectre:
CybrTeddy: Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.
525 Grothar: I bet you looked that up. :(

He's got me beat. I don't even know the combination of keywords that'd get me that kind of info on a search frontpage or so.


:)
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Quoting nigel20:

Nice update...thanks hurricanedean07

No problem
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Mount Etna is erupting again.

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The triplets look like they are more or less congealing into one.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
I know many of you are aware of this program. It could help save a lot of lives.


EAS program:

Link
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

In fact, that outbreak was the only other one to ever receive a high risk a day in advance!

I wonder...
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Repost...

I beleive the 2nd system has about the same amount of chance as any other april system on a normal season. The system the models have been first indicating... Thats another story, it has a good chance in my mind.

Just made a quick blog on the possibility of Alberto next week..
Subtropical Storm Alberto?

Nice update...thanks hurricanedean07
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course it is real :P

It's from April 7, 2006.


In fact, that outbreak was the only other one to ever receive a high risk a day in advance!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


There's the 60%
That's for all forms of severe. On day 1, after midnight - about 1 a.m. - they'll issue a day 1 for Saturday with specific probabilities for tors, wind and hail. I'm guessing a 45% tor prob in high risk areas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
You know, Grothar there's a deal going on that only started in December called Weather Ready Nation. An outgrowth of last year's severe. Gov't agencies and "partners." Media being a big one. Purpose to get the word out to the public in ways they understand. Sounds like it's kicking into gear.


It is about time, don't you think. I wasn't of aware of that movement. Makes sense. I am familiar with the EAS though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I'm horrified that I missed this event of 60%!
Ow wait! That was the outbreak that spawned an EF2 that hit my old farm in Newnan! Destroyed a ton of trees and fence posting...not to mention a utility shed.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for the update NCHurricane2009


Well...these guys have been doin the thorough job of talking about the severe weather and I've only been watching....no need to give credit to me...LOL

I did another update on the tropics...but understandably the severe wx is getting a lot of attention and rightfully so right now....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course it is real :P

It's from April 7, 2006.

I'm horrified that I missed this event of 60%!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Also, during last year's super outbreak, they started with the 30 and upped to 45 when storms started to initialize and become monsters.









Plus, with storms expected to initialize even later tomorrow than that outbreak, they might not have enough confidence to place a >30% risk area until storm initialization and it could be around the last outlook or even later until they really get going and the storm trends could be seen.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11556
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is that real?

Of course it is real :P

It's from April 7, 2006.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting HrDelta:
I'm a student at OU. What does the situation look like for the rest of the night?
New tornado watch till 4 a.m. Long-tracking cells in SW OK have been tor warned on and off, headed across to central from SW OK. Corridor of good conditions for them. And increased low level winds may make them more likely to form tornadoes than earlier storms were. They may track similarly to the ones earlier, so if you're in Norman, keep on alert with a weather radio or TV or something like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
327 Grothar: ...an article by Dr. Forbes detailing the 10 worst tornados in US history.
The interesting thing is that not one from the Super Outbreak of 1974 was on the list.

504 aspectre: Just out of curiosity, does anyone know of tornadoes that struck outside of the continentalUS that would exceed any of the 10WorstUSTornadoes in terms of casualties&damage?
507 CybrTeddy: Yup. Daultipur and Salturia tornado in Bangladesh back in '89 killed 1,300 people. 1969 East Pakistan Tornado killed over 900.
525 Grothar: I bet you looked that up. :(

He's got me beat. I don't even know the combination of keywords that'd get me that kind of info on a search frontpage or so.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MOC053-101-159-195-150149-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
849 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

...BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR VALLEY CITY...BLUE LICK
...LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE


THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE FORECAST RAINFALL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. CRESTS MAY
VARY IF ACTUAL RAINFALL OR RUNOFF IS GREATER OR LESS THAN
ANTICIPATED.

LOCATION: BLACKWATER RIVER AT VALLEY CITY
FLOOD STAGE: 22.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 7.2 FEET AT 8 PM FRIDAY
FORECAST CREST: 22.5 FEET SUNDAY APR 15
AT 22.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND FARM FIELDS ALONG THE RIVER BEGIN TO
FLOOD.

LOCATION: BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK
FLOOD STAGE: 24.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 10.7 FEET AT 8 PM FRIDAY
FORECAST CREST: 25.0 FEET MONDAY APR 16
AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

LOCATION: LAMINE RIVER NEAR OTTERVILLE
FLOOD STAGE: 15.0 FEET
LATEST STAGE: 2.3 FEET AT 8 PM FRIDAY
FORECAST CREST: 17.5 FEET SATURDAY APR 14
AT 18.0 FEET...SOME GRAVEL ROADS UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FROM
OTTERVILLE ARE UNDER WATER. IN ADDITION STATE HIGHWAY 135 MAY BE
OVERTOPPED BY FLOOD WATERS 2 MILES NORTH OF CLIFTON CITY.

LATER STATEMENTS...POSSIBLY WARNINGS...WILL BE ISSUED AS ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


There's the 60%
Tornado probability not total severe. -_-
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.