Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's my concern... The low SST's are the main reason why I still don't believe we will see Alberto out of this
It's happened before. Tropical Storm Grace in 09 was fully tropical near the Azores with water about this temperature. It's the same story with Hurricane Vince in 2005 too. If those storms could form, why can't this one?
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Quoting hurricane23:


with sea surface temps in the low 70s it will be quite tough for it to gain subtropical charecteristics.

That's my concern... The low SST's are the main reason why I still don't believe we will see Alberto out of this
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
How embarrassed would the SPC be if nothing happened today?

Probably a lot, although I doubt nothing will happen today.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about the CMC, GFS, and NGP that have all showed it for the past week?


with sea surface temps in the low 70s it will be quite tough for it to gain subtropical charecteristics.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about the CMC, GFS, and NGP that have all showed it for the past week?


The Cyclone Phase State on those has been showing cold core.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It's sobering to realize there are almost certainly people waking up this morning and going about their Saturday business who will be dead or injured within the next 12 hours or so because they failed to heed numerous warnings, and because of that found themselves in the very worst places at the very worst times.



I guess major river flooding shouldn't be much of an issue this year, since we had such a pathetic winter and snow season. Everything is already melted and ran off.

We could still have some serious localized flash flooding in some areas over the next few days though.


Any word on how many tornadoes actually formed last night?

The Norman cell touched down at least two times confirmed.

The Altus cell touched down at least two times confirmed.

There were also at least two or three other cells with suspected tornadoes, but there was no visual confirmation at the time I gave up watching last night.

At one point, the Altus cell had a confirmed multi-vortex tornado, described as a "satellite tornado," and greater than 4 inch max hail size a couple times.

I haven't heard of any damage reports from it, so maybe it hit in an un-populated area.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I believe the odds are quite good that this will change before the end of the day:

How embarrassed would the SPC be if nothing happened today?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting hurricane23:


The Euro has a serious problem developing cutoff lows that never really materialize.

What about the CMC, GFS, and NGP that have all showed it for the past week?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today is going to be an extremely active and life-threatening day for tornadoes. All the parameters are there for violent/long-lived tornadoes across the High risk area.

I hope and pray everybody takes the warnings seriously.







Well we will see those new warnings the NWS has.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
I believe the odds are quite good that this will change before the end of the day:

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like it.

ECMWF is a little further north and weaker on the 00z, but still shows a 1001 mb Sub-Tropical Storm by 72 hours. Could see a mention in the TWO by late tomorrow or Monday.


The Euro has a serious problem developing cutoff lows that never really materialize.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, that's not saying much.

Which model is historically most accurate and consistent at predicting the El Nino x numbers of months ahead of time?


I'm not aware of a site that tracks an measures that. The NMME suite is relatively new, just starting late last year. The oldest plot I could find in that suite was from Jan of 2012. Looking at where Nino 3.4 is currently at -0.3, the mean seems in the ballpark.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's sobering to realize there are almost certainly people waking up this morning and going about their Saturday business who will be dead or injured within the next 12 hours or so because they failed to heed numerous warnings, and because of that found themselves in the very worst places at the very worst times.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today is going to be an extremely active and life-threatening day for tornadoes. All the parameters are there for violent/long-lived tornadoes across the High risk area.

I hope and pray everybody takes the warnings seriously.







Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30243
The worst conditions were projected for late Saturday afternoon between Oklahoma City and Salina, Kan., but other areas also could see severe storms with baseball-sized hail and winds of up to 70 mph, forecasters said. The warning issued Friday covers parts of Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/04/14/forecasters-w arn-life-threatening-storms/#ixzz1s1PO4aQT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
ok big question which year can rival this years tornado outrage? and in terms of the pattern


last year.
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Quoting caribbeantracker01:


true but i believe the most reliable one is the most accurate


Well, that's not saying much.

Which model is historically most accurate and consistent at predicting the El Nino x numbers of months ahead of time?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
ok big question which year can rival this years tornado outrage? and in terms of the pattern
I think today will be a good bit stronger but still close to the day after the Joplin tornado. In terms of year you question is a bit to early.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
ok big question which year can rival this years tornado outrage? and in terms of the pattern
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>10 0-151045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPH ERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMA N-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGO MERY-LABETTE-
733 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE TORNADOES
COULD BE STRONG AND LONG LIVED WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT THEY WILL
CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...WHEN THEY WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE ISOLATED
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES EXISTS
ALONG A LINE FROM SALINA...TO NEWTON...TO WICHITA...TO WELLINGTON.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DIME
TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

$$

KETCHAM
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
NWS in Oklahoma says there is wide uncertainty in todays forecast and advises all to stay tuned in to local warnings and forecasts..stay safe folks and pay attention
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Depends on which climate model you place your trust in.




true but i believe the most reliable one is the most accurate
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 164
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
731 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

OKC035-041-097-115-141400-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.A.0164.000000T0000Z-120414T1400Z/

TORNADO WATCH 164 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CRAIG DELAWARE MAYES
OTTAWA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...JAY...MIAMI...PRYOR AND VINITA.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting RTSplayer:
Now that the Sun is getting higher we can really see those low level winds bringing in the energy and moisture from the Gulf.

RGB Satellite


and one can see how wind shear is relaxing near the Yucatan and Florida respectfully
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storms should be widely spaced, if more pop up than expected, you could get a 60%.
I wonder if one will line up for a city.
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Quoting caribbeantracker01:


seems to me el nino will not last long


Depends on which climate model you place your trust in.


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i believe this year could be simular to 2004 and 2002
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Its great to see at least some parts of Florida got some rain, gee around Tampa bay we could really use some, possibly a shower later on, it doesnt look good for us though......................................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
841 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

FLC011-086-141430-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0007.120414T1241Z-120414T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
841 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PLANTATION...PEMBROKE PINES...
MIRAMAR...HOLLYWOOD...HALLANDALE...FORT LAUDERDALE...DAVIE...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH MIAMI...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...
KEY BISCAYNE...KENDALL...HIALEAH...CORAL GABLES...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 833 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND WILL AFFECT
THESE AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS
OCCURRED OVER THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY AND OVER NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MORE EASILY CREATING
MINOR FLOOD CONDITIONS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISED AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS,
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS
AND DITCHES.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS
OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. RUNOFF MAY ALSO ELEVATE WATER LEVELS IN
CANALS AND DITCHES.

LAT...LON 2600 8011 2580 8011 2573 8014 2567 8015
2566 8016 2568 8018 2574 8017 2574 8020
2572 8024 2564 8026 2561 8030 2557 8030
2550 8033 2554 8045 2617 8040 2614 8009

$$

60
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Does anyone have the wunderground iphone app? The 6-day forecast they have on there is consistently 5-10 degrees higher than any other forecast. It says it is going to be 99 here on Tuesday. 93 tomorrow and Monday. Every place else says 86 or so for a high.

Good app otherwise.
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Now that the Sun is getting higher we can really see those low level winds bringing in the energy and moisture from the Gulf.

RGB Satellite
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
Well it looks like I got my 45% lets see if we get to 60% later today.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, didn't see it mentioned.

Hurricane Irene was retired from the naming list yesterday.

Replaced by Irma in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Thanks for the notice. Correct retirement I think and only one that really merited it.

Hopefully this year the El Nino will be strong enough to dissuade any 'I' names from forming. They have a recent habit of causing damage.
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If Doc doesnt clear the blog this morning we might hit 2000 posts by the time tonight is over huh, very dangerous weather is beginning to set up, already there are a few flash flood warnings out
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151 000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTING ACROSS THE
AREA...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS BEFORE LIKELY PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO
60 MPH WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A BRIEF LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL CAUSE THE STORMS TO APPROACH PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO
OKEMAH...DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS...AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 75 MPH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONG TORNADO THREAT WILL DIMINISH...STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ISOLATED TORNADO...DAMAGING WIND...AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

A PERIOD OF FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS...FIRST RESPONDERS...AND OTHER INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR
LATER TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW AND READY PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC051-151-141800-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FF.W.0014.120414T1213Z-120414T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
713 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
OSAGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 712 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. A
STORM SPOTTER REPORTED FLASH FLOODING 5 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON
CITY. SMALL STREAMS WERE OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND WERE FLOWING
SWIFTLY OVER ROADS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JEFFERSON CITY...LINN...BRAZITO...CENTERTOWN...CHAMOIS...
FREEBURG...HICKORY HILL...RICH FOUNTAIN...RUSSELLVILLE...ST.
MARTINS...ST. THOMAS...TAOS...WARDSVILLE AND WESTPHALIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9239 3872 9234 3868 9235 3864 9222
3858 9217 3856 9210 3859 9195 3868 9182
3868 9177 3871 9173 3870 9164 3829 9164
3829 9220 3833 9220 3832 9226 3834 9241
3842 9240 3844 9249

$$

CARNEY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
wow.

There are already SST of 27C and 28C on two buoys off the coast of Louisiana, near the Lafayette and Lake Charles area.


wow. I didn't notice that before. There's actually a nested 26C isotherm there too, so the whole region's that hot.

When I was looking on the weekly SST anomaly chart, that area shows up as being at least 2.5C above normal.

Really, the entire Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coastal waters are 2.5C above normal for 7 day average for last week.

The area was also 2.5C above normal for April 12 vs a 1971 to 2000 reference period.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
SPC's a little early with their new outlook... No major changes, but the high risk area grew some...

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Quoting caribbeantracker01:


seems to me el nino will not last long

If it starts at all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is going to be an event of longlived tornadoes est nebraska iowa okc its a very dangerous situation
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It was mentioned on posts 6-7,but it was good that you brought it up again. On another matter,is the subtropical system in the Atlantic going to happen?


Looks like it.

ECMWF is a little further north and weaker on the 00z, but still shows a 1001 mb Sub-Tropical Storm by 72 hours. Could see a mention in the TWO by late tomorrow or Monday.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, didn't see it mentioned.

Hurricane Irene was retired from the naming list yesterday.

Replaced by Irma in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

look at post 305
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Wow.

Looks like over night tonight is going to be crazy.

The Canadian maxes the low at about 7a.m. tomorrow at 987mb, and 500mb vorticity about the same time, give or take.

Canadian displays in 12 hours resolution, so 987mb may not even be as strong as it gets.


GFS looks like 500mb vorticity max starts in the warned region around 7p.m. tonight and then just gets worse and worse all the way through about 10a.m. to 1p.m. Central time tomorrow. GFS also maxes the low sometime tomorrow morning or early afternoon in the high 980's.


So they are sticking with their guns on it.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1496
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, didn't see it mentioned.

Hurricane Irene was retired from the naming list yesterday.

Replaced by Irma in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


It was mentioned on posts 6-7,but it was good that you brought it up again. On another matter,is the subtropical system in the Atlantic going to happen?
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seems to me el nino will not last long
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Also, didn't see it mentioned.

Hurricane Irene was retired from the naming list yesterday.

Replaced by Irma in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting percylives:
For those who haven't seen this.

A pictorial record of Japan's 2011 earthquake history.

WOW ! from 1:54 or so.....
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Looks like we're in for a possible tornado outbreak today in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Morning all. Looks like Nassau will be having its own share of inclement wx today.



Nothing heavy, it looks but some seriously windy condidtions. Temps not likely to get too high due to the cloud cover, and winds have been steady 10 - 15 kts with higher gusts this a.m. I'll bet the surf's up....

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It's going to be near 90 degrees for the Boston Marathon on Monday... Brutal and very dangerous for the runners
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Good morning everyone,

Another day of severe weather for so many.
Stay safe!

Many areas of SE Fla got 1-2" of rain last night. I checked my guage this morning around 6am and we only got .60" at my house but we will take it. Very Dry in Central & South Florida.. we need the rain.

You all enjoy your Saturday.

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Looks like Oklahoma storms are clearing out this morning, if the day heating arrives, lookout, and Katie bar the door!

It's not a good day for some, I am going to come in here throughout the day and see some of the most wonderful post the members will have to say.

Neopolitan: I like your cut and paste of Dr. Forbes it's great.

I saw Dr.Forbes and Mike Bettes at a weather seminar,
both are good down home folks, easy to talk too!

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.