Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Actually this could hurt the chances of a big event today because these storms do not have very much daytime heating which will prevent them from being very strong and this could work to stabilize the atmosphere for storms that form later, potentially limting their intensity... Just an idea though


not exactly because these are forming further west... not inside of the high risk area they will move into the high risk area during peak heating
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
This is crazy ... if it starts now we could see close to 18 hours of craziness

Actually this could hurt the chances of a big event today because these storms do not have very much daytime heating which will prevent them from being very strong and this could work to stabilize the atmosphere for storms that form later, potentially limting their intensity... Just an idea though
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Here we go with the flood advisories in PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1103 AM AST SAT APR 14 2012

PRC005-013-027-065-071-099-115-131-141800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0123.120414T1503Z-120414T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-ARECIBO PR-AGUADILLA PR-
ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
1103 AM AST SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...ARECIBO...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...CAMUY AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 200 PM AST

* AT 1057 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ABOUT
ONE INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR IS BEING OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND ARE CAUSING URBAN FLOODING IN SOME AREAS AS WELL AS
QUICK RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6691 1850 6678 1848 6674 1851 6660
1847 6658 1836 6658 1833 6661 1832 6672
1835 6674 1832 6677 1832 6682 1835 6683
1837 6690 1841 6716 1850 6716 1851 6699

$$

JJA
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This is crazy ... if it starts now we could see close to 18 hours of craziness
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
storm initiation just west of Dodge City, KS
Looks like we will get an early start to things today.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
storm initiation just west of Dodge City, KS
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current STP is OFF THE CHARTS!!!!!!!

No seriously, it's just insane right now.

It will go off the chart (over 10) later today though.

CAPE/CINH chart.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
During that outbreak there were more EF4 tornadoes than any other correct?
There were 17 confirmed f-4,s. I do not know if that is a record, but it certainly should be.
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TWC said the CAP may be an issue in regards to the amount of storms but the ones that do form will be dangerous hence my pediction of 60 to 75 tornadoes today.
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If those 70 plus dew points move farther north, there will be a veritable explosion of severe weather.
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663 CybrTeddy: Also, didn't see it mentioned. Hurricane Irene was retired from the naming list yesterday.
Replaced by Irma in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
.
667 Articuno: look at post 305

Or at 6 Chucktown: Irene has been retired and 7 Tropicsweatherpr: ...and replaced with Irma
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting hydrus:
Image of the "double tornado" destroying the Midway Trailer Park, on U.S. Route 33, in Dunlap, Indiana. This killed "33" people at the Midway Trailer Park.
During that outbreak there were more EF4 tornadoes than any other correct?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Current STP is OFF THE CHARTS!!!!!!!

No seriously, it's just insane right now.

It will go off the chart (over 10) later today though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Image of the "double tornado" destroying the Midway Trailer Park, on U.S. Route 33, in Dunlap, Indiana. This killed "33" people at the Midway Trailer Park.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
How embarrassed would the SPC be if nothing happened today?


I'd bet they would be relieved that nobody was hurt or killed and would approach it as more like "back to the computer models Monday morning."
Remember, high risk doesn't necessarily mean it's a foregone conclusion of tornadoes. It just means that all the necessary ingredients are there. We just have to wait to see if Mother nature makes sugar water or full blown lemonade.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141442Z - 141615Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING
CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS
ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN
POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF
THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP
IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED
SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF
FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE
CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
Already!?!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Thanks again, TA13! I now see the huge gradient in dewpoint sitting along the west Texas state line along with a wind shift.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Reports? C or D.


B
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That area isn't even in a Slight risk area, and half of it is cut off with a thunder line.

That's a tad worrying. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141442Z - 141615Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING
CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS
ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN
POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF
THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP
IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED
SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF
FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE
CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Sorry, I didn't see your reply, Thundercloud. Now, I do. Should we be seeing that massive cold fron moving even now before it crosses the mountains? Where is it at now? How do you know it is going to start moving south? I see a large pressure gradient across the country now, but no air movement.
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the may alter this by tomorrow..DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THIS LINE POTENTIALLY HAVING
A SEVERE THREAT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE
LINE EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEVELOPING
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINEAR MCS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AT LITTLE ROCK AR AND SHREVEPORT LA AT 21Z SUNDAY
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S F AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT. THIS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT POTENTIALLY ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT COULD BE FOR WIND DAMAGE DUE TO
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. IF A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE...THEN
AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP. THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO ENABLE ROTATING STORMS TO PERSIST WITHIN
THE LINE ITSELF AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS SE
MN...WI SWD INTO IL. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 60 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXTEND EWD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG A SFC TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 04/14/2012
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I dont see anything that may try to develop into a Sub-Tropical low pressure at this time as all the convection looks linear.




Just as the models predicted.

It's going to appear rapidly, we might not have much time between the first STWO on it and the possible first advisory if we do get Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23849
Quoting wxmojo:
Thanks for the reply, TA13! How does one identify a dryline from a meteorological perspective? It shows itself in water vapor imagery?

I look at surface observations and look for a sudden windshift and drop in dewpoints.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
I dont see anything that may try to develop into a Sub-Tropical low pressure at this time as all the convection looks linear.


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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Stay safe in the Plains Today! Buckle Up!

This set up looks like the 1896 outbreak, Though not as long, May 1896 tornado outbreak sequence
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Damage from the St. Louis-East St. Louis Tornado.

The May 1896 tornado outbreak sequence was a series of violent and deadly tornado outbreaks that struck much of the Central and Southern United States from May 15 to May 27, 1896. It is considered one of the worst tornado outbreak sequences on record. There were four particularly notable tornado outbreaks during the two-week period. It produced at least two, or perhaps three F5 tornadoes as well as the third deadliest tornado ever in United States history. A total of 484 people were killed during the entire outbreak sequence by at least 20 different tornadoes which struck Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Kentucky and Michigan.Sherman tornado outbreak

The Sherman, Texas tornado outbreak was the first of a series of deadly tornado outbreaks that occurred during the month of May in 1896. The Sherman outbreak took place on May 15, 1896. This outbreak killed 73 people and injured nearly 300 others.

Most of the fatalities on this day came from a single supercell thunderstorm that traveled from Denton to Sherman. The first tornado destroyed several homes south of the Denton area killing two. A second storm north of the town killed an additional three people before producing the deadly Sherman tornado. At around 5:00 pm, a tornado about two blocks wide cut a path through most of the western portion of Sherman and traveled for about 28 miles (45 km). As it arrived near the city, the width narrowed to about 100 %u2013 400 yards, but the storm intensified. In addition to the complete destruction of nearly 50 homes, an iron bridge was blown away by the cyclone. Bodies of the victims were transported into the court house and a vacant building. Several bodies were recovered from a muddy creek Seventy-three people were killed by this single tornado, one of the worst on records in North Texas and the Red River Valley region.

Additional killer tornadoes were recorded north of Wichita, Kansas in McPherson County and further south in Bryan County, Oklahoma.
[edit] Kansas/Nebraska tornado

The second major tornado outbreak took place on May 17 where two zones of activity produced deadly tornadoes across the Midwest and Plains states. The first tornado however came from a different system, and killed at least 5 near Elva, Kentucky when their home was destroyed.

During the late afternoon a 1 mile (2 km) wide (possibly F5) tornado traveled through portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska and swept away numerous farms along its path and killed at least 25 people. The hardest hit areas along the 100 miles (160 km) track included the Seneca (six fatalities), Oneida (six fatalities), Reserve (five fatalities) and Sabetha (three fatalities). Four fatalities were also recorded in Nebraska by this same tornado. At least 200 others were injured. Damage in Seneca alone was estimated at around $250,000 in 1896 dollars where most of the homes, the fairgrounds and other small structures sustained at least heavy if not complete damage. The Grand Opera House in that town as well as the Nemaha County Courthouse were also flattened........... Midwest/Great Lakes outbreak

After a small lull in the intense activity, the third outbreak started across the Upper Plains states on May 24. One night-time tornado near Des Moines, Iowa killed at least 21 people including several members of a single family. Fatalities were recorded in Bondurant, Valeria and Mingo in Polk and Jasper Counties. 60 people were also injured.

Late during the evening hours of May 25, another F5 tornado touched down and moved northeast for about 30 miles (48 km). The system affected portions of Oakland, Lapeer and Livingston Counties northwest of Detroit. Areas affected included Thomas, Ortonville and Oakwood just after 9:00 pm. With 47 deaths, this is the second deadliest tornado ever in Michigan trailing only the Flint Tornado of 1953 which killed 116 in Genessee County just outside Flint. Nine of the fatalities were in a single home in Ortonville and parts of some homes were found dozens of miles away. Twenty-two people were killed in Ortonville, ten in Oakwood, three in Thomas, four in North Oxford and three in Whigville with others in rural areas.

Other killer tornadoes on that day touched down in Ogle County, Illinois (two different tornadoes) and Macomb & Tuscola Counties in Michigan. Several homes and farms in the Mount Clemens area were wiped out and others were moved from their foundation and the recently completed Colonial Hotel was leveled. 30 homes were levelled in total and two people were killed. St. Louis-East St. Louis tornado
Main article: St. Louis-East St. Louis Tornado

The third deadliest tornado struck the St. Louis Metropolitan Area on both sides of the Mississippi River in Missouri and Illinois on May 27. That tornado alone killed 255 while 27 other were killed elsewhere in Illinois and seven elsewhere in Missouri including three at a school in Audrain County. Twenty-four of the 27 other fatalities were recorded by a single tornado with 13 of them near New Baden. In that town about half of the homes were completely destroyed with damage figures at around $50,000. The towns of Belleville and Mascoutah were also hit. Three people were killed by the other killer tornado that tracked between Nashville and Mount Verno Fatalities were also reported the following day in Pennsylvania and New Jersey near Trenton between Philadelphia and New York City.
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Thanks for the reply, TA13! How does one identify a dryline from a meteorological perspective? It shows itself in water vapor imagery?
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GOES East just started Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) for the day, 8 images per hour.

Loop
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test
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Quoting wxmojo:
Exactly what are the ingredients that are causing the severe weather warnings? Looking at the air motion, I see lots of warm moist southern air moving northward, but I see no evidence of a cold front or cold air mass moving southward. I do see a big region of static cold air sitting to the west. The tornadoes are going to form via a warm air mass riding up over a static cold air mass? Can someone illuminate further?

There is a dryline with a trailing cold front stretched across western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. There is a warm front moving northwestward across northwest Nebraska, allowing for abundant moisture to rise northward.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Quoting wxmojo:
Exactly what are the ingredients that are causing the severe weather warnings? Looking at the air motion, I see lots of warm moist southern air moving northward, but I see no evidence of a cold front or cold air mass moving southward. I do see a big region of static cold air sitting to the west. The tornadoes are going to form via a warm air mass riding up over a static cold air mass? Can someone illuminate further?


There is a dry line that will be moving across Kansas.. and then a cold front as well... there is a massive cold air mass that will push south across the mountains and then into the plains
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Exactly what are the ingredients that are causing the severe weather warnings? Looking at the air motion, I see lots of warm moist southern air moving northward, but I see no evidence of a cold front or cold air mass moving southward. I do see a big region of static cold air sitting to the west. The tornadoes are going to form via a warm air mass riding up over a static cold air mass? Can someone illuminate further?
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this was my facebook status yesterday:

"Huge tornado outbreak for the states tomorrow... so don't bug me!"

This is mine for today:

"Yup, gonna sit back with a beer and watch this tornado outbreak from afar ... hopefully no lives are lost"
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

If you're not a paid member

oh ok, didn't know that. Maybe that will stop the trolls unless they can wait 24hrs to troll.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that true. 24hr wait till posting??


If you don't pay u have to wait 24 hrs
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200 or more

I go with high end C


D or E


Lots of chasers are on this system so there will be a ton of reports
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that true. 24hr wait till posting??

If you're not a paid member
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


I got a WU mail from a new blogger named EugeneTillman who has to wait 24 hours before posting but wants me to put in his answer of 88 tornado reports for today... This is clearly a popular poll :)

Is that true. 24hr wait till posting??
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Quoting hurricane23:


The Euro has a serious problem developing cutoff lows that never really materialize.


However, the same low is being predicted by the GFS and CMC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23849
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200 or more

I go with high end C


High b tornadoes 94

But there could be a thousand reports for tornadoes
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200 or more

I go with high end C
At least C.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200 or more

I go with high end C


I got a WU mail from a new blogger named EugeneTillman who has to wait 24 hours before posting but wants me to put in his answer of 88 tornado reports for today... This is clearly a popular poll :)
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


I'm not saying it can't, but I'm not expecting it
I see.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200 or more

I go with high end C
B.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200

I go with high end C

Reports? C or D.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200

I go with high end C
B.  ~ 75
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Beven is doing a presentation next week:
CYCLONE TYPE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING: A NEED TO RE-VISIT THE ISSUE
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How about a nice poll...

How many tornado reports will we receive today

A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200 or more

I go with high end C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Stay safe in the Plains Today!  Buckle Up!

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Quoting cyclonekid:
It's happened before. Tropical Storm Grace in 09 was fully tropical near the Azores with water about this temperature. It's the same story with Hurricane Vince in 2005 too. If those storms could form, why can't this one?


I'm not saying it can't, but I'm not expecting it
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's my concern... The low SST's are the main reason why I still don't believe we will see Alberto out of this
It's happened before. Tropical Storm Grace in 09 was fully tropical near the Azores with water about this temperature. It's the same story with Hurricane Vince in 2005 too. If those storms could form, why can't this one?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.