Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Significant Tornado Parameters are expected to be near 25 this evening. This is the highest values we have seen since April 27 when there was a value of 37.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
The wall cloud on the tornado warned storm is really something. Michael Wurzburger has it.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1206 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

NEZ028-029-141745-
GARFIELD NE-WHEELER NE-
1206 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHEELER AND EXTREME EASTERN
GARFIELD COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF ERICSON...OR 22 MILES
EAST OF BURWELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
ERICSON...
BARTLETT...
PIBEL LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA...
FOUR CORNERS...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

$$

BROOKS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hodograph horror stories...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
The severe storm heading for Rush Center, Kansas needs a tornado warning!


Not really, rotation is weak and broad.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Flooding getting a bit worse now...................FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSOURI...


DARDENNE CREEK AT ST. PETERS...AFFECTING ST. CHARLES COUNTY


.THIS FLOOD WARNING IS A RESULT OF 2 TO 2.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND AROUND 0.50 INCH FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND ISSUE FOLLOW UP STATEMENTS AS CONDITIONS OR FORECASTS CHANGE.

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER
CASE/

&&

MOC183-151659-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0014.120414T1655Z-120416T1013Z/
/DRCM7.2.ER.120414T1649Z.120415T0000Z.120415T1013 Z.UU/
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE DARDENNE CREEK AT ST. PETERS
* FROM THIS MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11:31 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.6 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO RISE TO NEAR 19.0 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 19.4 FEET...BALL FIELDS AT SPORTS CENTER PARK BECOME
FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 19.2 FEET...LONE WOLFF PARK BEGINS FLOODING JUST SOUTH
OF MAIN STREET/HIGHWAY C, JUST WEST OF ST. PETERS.
* IMPACT...AT 16.1 FEET...FIELD IN THE MIDDLE OF BROWN ROAD PARK
BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* IMPACT...AT 15.4 FEET...DITCH ADJACENT TO PARKING LOT IN THE BACK OF
BROWN ROAD PARK BEGINS FILLING UP.

$$

&&
FLD LATEST 7AM FORECAST
LOCATION STG OBS STG 04/15 04/16 04/17 04/18 04/19

DARDENNE CREEK
ST. PETERS 16.0 15.63 15.2 8.2 5.4 4.3 3.9
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ellis, Ness, and Trego County in KS until 1:00pm CDT. #kswx less than a minute ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Holt and Wheeler County in NE until 1:00pm CDT. #newx 3 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Franklin and Harlan County in NE until 1:00pm CDT. #newx 5 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Phillips County in KS until 1:00pm CDT. #kswx 5 minutes ago
Tornado Warning for Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne and Smith County in KS until 12:45pm CDT. #kswx 7 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Antelope, Boone, Madison and Pierce County in NE until 12:45pm CDT. #newx 8 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Rooks County in KS until 12:45pm CDT. #kswx 12 minutes ago
Tornado Watch for portions of the area in NE until 7:00pm CDT. #newx 18 minutes ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The severe storm heading for Rush Center, Kansas needs a tornado warning!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Two PDS Watches out with already a Tornado Warning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Tornado Warning

SW Superior, NE

SSW of Hastings,NE

TORNADO WARNING
KSC089-123-141-183-141745-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0005.120414T1709Z-120414T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF OSBORNE...OR 30 MILES WEST OF
BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNS...CAWKER CITY...IONIA...ESBON...BURR OAK AND MANKATO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9840 3977 9813 3928 9855 3938 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 209DEG 37KT 3942 9863
HAIL <.75IN

$$

HEINLEIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado Warning

SW Superior, NE

SSW of Hastings,NE

Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/S-CNTRL KS AND NERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 141711Z - 141815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

WICHITA WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN
KINGMAN COUNTY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOBE OF
ASCENT TRANSLATING NEWD FROM NRN OK PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH
DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS AMIDST STRENGTHENING
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CINH /SBCINH ALREADY LESS NEGATIVE THAN
-10 J PER KG ACCORDING TO MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/...CONVECTION MAY
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND BECOME TORNADIC GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
TORNADO WATCH 165 MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD INTO MORE OF SERN KS
AND POSSIBLY NERN OK IF THIS THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
The crazy talk weather modification stuff so far is correlating very well.

askwhy333.minus.com/mkEtg2JrB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF OSBORNE...OR 30 MILES WEST OF
BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNS...CAWKER CITY...IONIA...ESBON...BURR OAK AND MANKATO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9840 3977 9813 3928 9855 3938 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 209DEG 37KT 3942 9863
HAIL <.75IN

$$

Totally beat you!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7928

Got some real inflow coming into it now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
@Neapolitan
Figures they do it right after I post, a lot of 9's in there now.


Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF OSBORNE...OR 30 MILES WEST OF
BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNS...CAWKER CITY...IONIA...ESBON...BURR OAK AND MANKATO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9840 3977 9813 3928 9855 3938 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 209DEG 37KT 3942 9863
HAIL <.75IN

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF OSBORNE...OR 30 MILES WEST OF
BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNS...CAWKER CITY...IONIA...ESBON...BURR OAK AND MANKATO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 9840 3977 9813 3928 9855 3938 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 209DEG 37KT 3942 9863
HAIL <.75IN

$$

HEINLEIN


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7928


Near Osborn, Kansas
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where is that ... what radar site
KUEX and the next frame is not looking any better.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where is that ... what radar site

Grand Island radar site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceCoast:
Current TOR:CON from TWC. Just said on tv NE is now upgraded to a 9! Look out once those storms in western Kansas get closer to the nebraska border.

Saturday April 14
IA west night - 8
IA central - 5
IA central, northeast night - 4 to 5
KS central - 8
KS east night - 8
MN southwest - 4
MN south, east-central night - 5
MO northwest night - 6
NE central, east - 8
OK west, north-central (except panhandle) - 7
OK central, northeast night - 5
SD southeast night - 6
TX northwest near Wichita Falls - 7
TX central night, west of I-35 - 4
WI west-central night - 4
Other areas - less than 2
Just updated:

Saturday April 14
IA northwest 3 - 4
IA southwest - 5
IA south-central - 4
IA northeast night - 2
IA west night - 7
KS central - 9
KS east - 5
KS central, northeast night - 9
KS near Wichita night - 7
MN extreme southwest - 2
MN south night - 4
MO northwest, west-central - 4
MO northwest night - 7
NE south - central - 9
NE north - central - 5
NE central night - 8
NE east - 7
NE east - 6, night - 7
OK northwest - 9
OK southwest, central - 7
OK northeast - 5
SD southeast - 2
SD southeast night - 3
TX east panhandle - 7
TX northwest east of Midland to Wichita Falls - 4
TX northwest near San Angelo to Wichita Falls night - 5
WI west-central,southwest night - 2
Other areas - less than 2

Sunday April 15
AR - 3
IL north - 4
IL central, south - 3
IN northwest - 2 to 3
LA northwest - 3
MI upper - 3
MI west - 3
MN southeast - 4
MO east-central, south - 3
OK southeast - 3
TX southeast - 4
TX rest of area east of I-35 - 3
WI central - 5
WI north - 3 to 4
WI south - 4
Other areas - less than 2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Next frame may be quite scary.


where is that ... what radar site
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
NEW PDS WATCH. 80% chance of tornadoes and 80% chance of strong tornadoes, ouch!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEB THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND A WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTING
AND INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART
Top of Page/All Current Watches/Forecas
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Now 20 quakes centered in Fukushima beginning with M5.9 just over 24 hours ago %u2014 Consecutive M4.4s in last 30 minutes

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Next frame may be quite scary.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting Patrap:


...somewhere a Stone Chiseler is Grinning in his Grave.


.... and anyway, you left out the 'd' on "Stone..."
Do try to be more Careful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Yes we will have lots of tornadoes today but nothing on the scale of last April's outbreaks.


Not true, this could be similar to the April 14th through 16th, 2011 tornado outbreak in terms of number of tornadoes starting today.

It would not surprise me however it late this month early next month, we get a Super Outbreak. We've already had a billion dollar tornado outbreak and that was in early March too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current TOR:CON from TWC. Just said on tv NE is now upgraded to a 9! Look out once those storms in western Kansas get closer to the nebraska border.

Saturday April 14
IA west night - 8
IA central - 5
IA central, northeast night - 4 to 5
KS central - 8
KS east night - 8
MN southwest - 4
MN south, east-central night - 5
MO northwest night - 6
NE central, east - 8
OK west, north-central (except panhandle) - 7
OK central, northeast night - 5
SD southeast night - 6
TX northwest near Wichita Falls - 7
TX central night, west of I-35 - 4
WI west-central night - 4
Other areas - less than 2
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Re-intensifying and should come very close to Norfolk.

G1 71 dBZ 33,000 ft. 63 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 3.50 in. 29 knots WSW (241)


Tornado or not, nobody should be outside in that one.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
WUS40 KWNS 141659
WWP6

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

WT 0166 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 80%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 90%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 80%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU6.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


...somewhere a Stone Chiseler is Grinning in his Grave.


Yeah!
And he is probably an Aztec.
This is worse than I thought...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
What you guys think about this one?

Located near Burdett KS.


I'm trackin a possible rain-wrapped one with nice couplet near Stockton, KS

EDIt it has weakened.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
2nd PDS

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEB THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND A WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTING
AND INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEB THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND A WEAK CAP MAY RESULT IN OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUGGESTING
AND INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Yes we will have lots of tornadoes today but nothing on the scale of last April's outbreaks.


Don't bother trying to play the contrarian voice of reason, many people on this site do not want to hear that. They'll shoot you down instantly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

TORNADO WATCH 166 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-025-035-037-039-047-053 -055-059-061-
065-067-073-077-079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-11 9-121-125-127-
129-131-133-137-139-141-143-147-151-153-155-159-16 3-167-169-173-
175-177-179-181-185-150000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0166.120414T1700Z-120415T0000Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BURT BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
CUMING DAWSON DODGE
DOUGLAS FILLMORE FRANKLIN
FURNAS GAGE GOSPER
GREELEY HALL HAMILTON
HARLAN HOWARD JEFFERSON
JOHNSON KEARNEY LANCASTER
MADISON MERRICK NANCE
NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE
PAWNEE PHELPS PIERCE
PLATTE POLK RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN STANTON
THAYER THURSTON VALLEY
WASHINGTON WAYNE WEBSTER
YORK


ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Tornado Warning imminent.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting pottery:
Saw the most Incredible 'halo' around the Sun a couple of hours ago.
Very pronounced 'rainbow' circle, with the interior of that a very dark grey.
All in an almost clear sky.
Never seen one like that before.

We are either Doomed, or this is a Very Good portent.......
haven't decided as yet!


...somewhere a Stone Chiseler is Grinning in his Grave.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dodge City
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Saw the most Incredible 'halo' around the Sun a couple of hours ago.
Very pronounced 'rainbow' circle, with the interior of that a very dark grey.
All in an almost clear sky.
Never seen one like that before.

We are either Doomed, or this is a Very Good portent.......
haven't decided as yet!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
What you guys think about this one?

Located near Burdett KS.

Yeah there is some weak rotation. Could go tornado warned soon if it gets stronger.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141627Z - 141830Z

INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.


LATE THIS MORNING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION FROM NCNTRL THROUGH SERN NEB. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ARE SLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STORMS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE A SFC STABLE LAYER WITH AN INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS MODERATE MUCAPE
OVER CNTRL AND SRN NEB. WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER WILL LIFT
NWD...AND AS SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT
FROM THE SW...AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD EVOLVE IN THIS
REGION...PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS. SOME OF
THE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NCNTRL KS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SHIFT INTO SCNTRL NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE 50-60 KT LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NWD THROUGH KS AND INTO
SRN NEB LATER TODAY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING UPPER JET
CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 04/14/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN KS...NWRN OK...OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 141644Z - 141745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
TORNADO WATCH 165 WILL BE EVOLVING WITHIN TWO SPATIAL REGIMES
THROUGH 1730Z:

1. ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...NORTH A
OF A DODGE CITY TO GARDEN CITY KANSAS LINE...WILL SHIFT NEWD. WITH
THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINING RELATIVELY COOL OWING TO THE
STRATUS DECK...MODIFIED 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND POSE MAINLY
A THREAT FOR SEVERAL HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS AS THE INHIBITION
ERODES WITH AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL HEATING.

2. INCREASING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SWRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NEWD BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS. VERY
LITTLE CINH FOR A SFC-BASED PARCEL INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES PER 12Z
AMA RAOB SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS MAY QUICKLY EVOLVE
FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
What you guys think about this one?

Located near Burdett KS.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Something just got absolutely dumped on by that hail core.

It looks like it dropped it's whole load in one spot in about a 5 minute span.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Dragod66:
moderate risk for tomorrow

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Yes we will have lots of tornadoes today but nothing on the scale of last April's outbreaks.
You cant say that till its over.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Within 25hours
11:19amGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude5.3quake at 36.874n141.060e & 14.3kilometres(8.9miles)depth
61kilometres(38miles)South of FukushimaDaiichi
02:50pmGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude5.6quake at 37.539n141.568e & 23.2kilometres(14.4miles)depth
49kilometres(30miles)EastNorthEast of FukushimaDaiichi
10:10amGMT 13Apr2012 magnitude5.7quake at 36.995n141.336e & 8.7kilometres(5.4miles)depth
55kilometres(34miles)east of SouthSouthEast of FukushimaDaiichi
12:12pmGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude5.0quake at 36.984n141.235e & 35.2kilometres(21.9miles)depth
52kilometres(32miles)south of SouthSouthEast of FukushimaDaiichi

The closest(unconnected)dot to FukushimaDaichi is the FukushimaDainiNuclearPowerPlant
The farthest unconnected dot is the TokaiNuclearPowerPlant

Of interest because seismologists believe that the GreatTohokuEarthquake greatly destabilized the whole network of faults surrounding the FukushimaDaiichiNuclearPowerPlant. ie They expect more frequent earthquakes and stronger earthquakes within that area.

And because neither TEPCO nor the Japanese government have done much about the spent-fuel storage&cooling pool in the severely damaged Building#4 other than put some reinforcement columns under the pool in hopes that they'll keep the pool from cracking and releasing the coolant water, and in hopes that they'll keep the pool and spent fuel rods from falling several stories.
Neither have they made any attempt to move those spent fuel rods to safer holding areas, nor made any provisions to do so in their 20year decontamination&decommissioning plan (at least not in any portion of any publicly-available document)

If those spent fuel rods become exposed due to coolant loss or jumbled due to a fall, they'll undergo a meltdown that'll make the Chernobyl radiation release miniscule by comparison.
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Not very warm in the high risk area so far. This could be on reason the storms are so elevated.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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