Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wow just took a look at it and yes.


It looks like the circulation was pretty broad buying the last few minutes it tightened may need a warning soon
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6482
Astonishing series of midwest tornados may be linked to climate change
Mar 7, 2012

NEW YORK — When at least 80 tornadoes rampaged across the United States, from the Midwest to the Gulf of Mexico, last Friday, it was more than is typically observed during the entire month of March, tracking firm AccuWeather.com reported on Monday.

According to some climate scientists, such earlier-than-normal outbreaks of tornadoes, which typically peak in the spring, will become the norm as the planet warms.

“As spring moves up a week or two, tornado season will start in February instead of waiting for April,” said climatologist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. LINK
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Tornado signature intensifying on radar---cell to the west of Salinas , KS, north of Great Bend. Not certain what county that is.
Pulled up map,, that would be Russell county
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Everyone should watch Jeff Blairs stream, he is in a great spot.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
12z ECMWF in 72 hours still has the low,but a little bit weaker than in past runs.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Does anyone else think the big storm in Northeast Nebraska with the TVS should have a tornado warning?
Wow just took a look at it and yes.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Storms starting to fire south along the dry line. These storms should move into an extremely favorable environment with CAPES 2000-2500 J/kg and Helicity values 400-600 m2/s2.






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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This bottom cell might put out a big one!



They all may put out a big one lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6482
Does anyone else think the big storm in Northeast Nebraska with the TVS should have a tornado warning?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
Southern most tornado warned cell is producing 3.7inch hail.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Another cell popping in the Texas panhandle already well on the way to Oklahoma.

Doesn't take long for these to become severe. 5 to 10 minutes.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If anyone is in Dodge City I would go ahead and take cover. No tornado warning yet but it might have one any minute.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Dodge City is under a tornado warning!
Just looking at that storm I knew it would be trouble. I think it will be one of the main supercells of the entire event.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
TVS near Stanton, NE... That storm needs a tornado warning
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
Tornado vortex a few miles east of Norfolk, NE...same big cell.


S0 70 dBZ 23,000 ft. 44 kg/m² 70% chance 80% chance 1.25 in. 23 knots WSW (254)

P1 69 dBZ 33,000 ft. 45 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 2.75 in. 25 knots SW (236)
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting antiguaboy396:
Lucky you :D its extremely dry up hear :(


Hi from Puerto Rico. I can send some rain to Antigua as we dont need more.
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The storms will get real bad by 5pm CDT. By that time, any storm that goes up will likely produce very large and devastating tornadoes.
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Dodge City is under a tornado warning!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754


have computer problems i get one image out anyway
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Quoting pottery:

Getting cloudy now, looks like we may get a shower.
That would be nice!
Lucky you :D its extremely dry up hear :(
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These guys will be the tornado producers.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
New warning cell SE of Dodge city.


TORNADO WARNING
KSC025-057-119-141915-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0002.120414T1841Z-120414T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
141 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ENGLEWOOD. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARK STATE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3750 9997 3741 9973 3728 9962 3706 10014
3716 10021
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 242DEG 20KT 3712 10010
HAIL 2.75IN

$$

FINCH






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Wording!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
143 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 138 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LURAY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASH GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
That bottom cell is now tornado warned. If you are in the path of this storm then take shelter.
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Southwest Oklahoma is going to be really under the gun, I expect the worst of the storms today and tonight are going to form here and rapidly movie N N E as this evening unfolds. 
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We may see a 60% hatched tornado probability issued at the 2000Z update.
I think it will be for North Central OK and Central KS if it is issued.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
OMG.

The GFS and Canadian...

Next 30 hours...

They take the low below 986mb, and the 500mb vorticity is literally off the color scale through the entire night tonight and well into tomorrow early afternoon.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
If anyone is in Dodge City I would go ahead and take cover. No tornado warning yet but it might have one any minute.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to a 17Z sounding from Norman, Oklahoma, Storm Relatively Helicity is over 600 with a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere all the way north into Nebraska.

600 is freaking insane.


I don't see over 600, but SFC-1km SRH on the 17z sounding is 539m2/s2, which is still insane.


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We may see a 60% hatched tornado probability issued at the 2000Z update.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
2 tornado warnings just expired, one still up on the cell near Russell, KS


New one for the Russell storm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
131 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
EASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LURAY...OR 47 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTER...OSBORNE...TIPTON...VICTOR...DOWNS AND PORTIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9885 3957 9870 3937 9809 3921 9830
3921 9848 3913 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 212DEG 49KT 3903 9873
HAIL 1.75IN

$$

HEINLEIN
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
Quoting antiguaboy396:
Saw one just last week around 300 miles north of you in antigua

Getting cloudy now, looks like we may get a shower.
That would be nice!
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This bottom cell might put out a big one!

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2 tornado warnings just expired, one still up on the cell near Russell, KS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Cell just South West of Dodge City seems to be in a prime area to spawn Violent and large tornadoes. Its pretty much all by itself.


Yup no rain cooled air to choke it off. That's the problem in the northern High Risk area.
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Stuff's starting to hit the fan now.

Kansas has 3 tornado warnings up.

Hail core is hitting Norfolk presently.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
According to a 17Z sounding from Norman, Oklahoma, Storm Relatively Helicity is over 600 with a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere all the way north into Nebraska.

600 is freaking insane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN OK...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141823Z - 142030Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN INTO
MID-AFTERNOON OWING TO A FEW APPARENT MESOSCALE PROCESSES:
1. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES ACROSS W TX THAT WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY AID IN STORM INITIATION. SFC WINDS HAVE
SLIGHTLY VEERED WEST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LAST
HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BE MODESTLY SHARPENING WITH
AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. THE CUMULUS FIELD JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED PER
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGES...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPENING
CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS JUST
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO AID IN INITIATION.
2. A SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT IS NOTED 30-50 MILES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...WITH ATTENDANT ASCENT AUGMENTED BY AN
EWD-MIGRATING...SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERLAYS THE SECONDARY
MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THESE FEATURES MAY FOCUS INITIATION IN THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
3. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IS NOTED OVER WRN OK FROM ROGER MILLS
COUNTY SWD TOWARD WILBARGER COUNTY TX. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THIS ZONE OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL VERTICAL MIXING RATES COULD ALSO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES BETWEEN
1930 AND 2100Z. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS...STORMS WOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55 KT
WILL FAVOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH
531 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH ACCORDING TO THE 17Z NORMAN RAOB...AND A
LARGE DEGREE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 0.5
KM...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE OF CONCERN...CONTINGENT ON
THE INITIATION OF STORMS. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR STRONGER
TORNADOES WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE THE ISSUANCE OF A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOT AS
GREAT.

ULTIMATELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
AN INCREASINGLY APPARENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION...FOR WHICH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A WW...OR PERHAPS MULTIPLE
WATCHES...POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012


Thanks man! There we go! I think this may be our area later on up to NW MO.
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Heads up Ponca City, Wichita, and up to Kansas City. I think this area is should be under the High Risk!

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Cell just South West of Dodge City seems to be in a prime area to spawn Violent and large tornadoes. Its pretty much all by itself.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN OK...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141823Z - 142030Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME OF INCREASING CONCERN INTO
MID-AFTERNOON OWING TO A FEW APPARENT MESOSCALE PROCESSES:
1. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES ACROSS W TX THAT WILL SLOWLY MIX EWD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY AID IN STORM INITIATION. SFC WINDS HAVE
SLIGHTLY VEERED WEST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LAST
HOUR...SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY BE MODESTLY SHARPENING WITH
AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. THE CUMULUS FIELD JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED PER
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGES...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO DEEPENING
CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER CIRCULATIONS JUST
WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO AID IN INITIATION.
2. A SECONDARY MOISTURE GRADIENT IS NOTED 30-50 MILES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...WITH ATTENDANT ASCENT AUGMENTED BY AN
EWD-MIGRATING...SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CNTRL TX PANHANDLE WHERE THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERLAYS THE SECONDARY
MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THESE FEATURES MAY FOCUS INITIATION IN THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
3. A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE IS NOTED OVER WRN OK FROM ROGER MILLS
COUNTY SWD TOWARD WILBARGER COUNTY TX. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THIS ZONE OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING AND
DIFFERENTIAL VERTICAL MIXING RATES COULD ALSO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES BETWEEN
1930 AND 2100Z. IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURS...STORMS WOULD
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 45-55 KT
WILL FAVOR RAPID EVOLUTION TO FAST MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH
531 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH ACCORDING TO THE 17Z NORMAN RAOB...AND A
LARGE DEGREE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 0.5
KM...TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE OF CONCERN...CONTINGENT ON
THE INITIATION OF STORMS. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR STRONGER
TORNADOES WILL BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE THE ISSUANCE OF A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
THREAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOT AS
GREAT.

ULTIMATELY...THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
AN INCREASINGLY APPARENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION...FOR WHICH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WITH A WW...OR PERHAPS MULTIPLE
WATCHES...POSSIBLY BEING ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
If I lived in KS & OK I would be concerned for later on as we could have massive tornadoes going into night fall in those areas.

Dewpoints.
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MIDSCAR just reported a tornado rapped in rain on a cell that was just tornado warned.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
I would really watch this bottom cell as it should become dangerous soon. Temps near 80 in Southern KS.

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The storm heading over Cedar, KS seems to have pretty good rotation
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I agree I think the risk should shifted from Kansas City down to Tulsa. I think this area could really be prime as the sun is out in those areas.


Entirely possible, and if that was to be the case a lot of people would be caught off-guard.

Always remember, just because you're out of the highest risk zone doesn't guarantee you're not at high risk.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23940
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New wording!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...



IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.


* Wow
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Remember - it was never predicted that the storms would be going now. Significant Tornado Parameters are going to be around 25, which is very significant, higher than on March 3rd, and as high as many of the outbreaks last year, excluding April 27th. It's currently 1:16 p.m., the main threat is overnight, so even if we do get a less minimal outbreak than predicted it's entirely possible we'll see some extreme tornadoes.


I agree I think the risk should shifted from Kansas City down to Tulsa. I think this area could really be prime as the sun is out in those areas.
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New wording!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 110 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELL...BUNKER HILL...LURAY...LUCAS...RUSSELL AIRPORT...WILSON
LAKE AND WALDO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 177 AND 181.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ok, that's cool, just ignore my post earlier about how it wouldn't destabilize the atmosphere.


I think the outbreak is going to be further south where the temps are warmer ie OK & southern KS. Some of the temps in the high risk area of Nebraska are in the 50's hard to get large wedge tornadoes in that cool of an atmosphere.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
So far so good. The cool temps because of clouds and rain could help keep the tornadoes to a minimam today. I do believe the focus should Ok and southern KS later as that is where the temps are warming the most.





Remember - it was never predicted that the storms would be going now. Significant Tornado Parameters are going to be around 25, which is very significant, higher than on March 3rd, and as high as many of the outbreaks last year, excluding April 27th. It's currently 1:16 p.m., the main threat is overnight, so even if we do get a less minimal outbreak than predicted it's entirely possible we'll see some extreme tornadoes.

And interesting and serious threat developing tonight, either way.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23940

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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