Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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1139 ScottLincoln: I almost couldn't believe the statistic...50% of tornado emergencies dont even have an actual tornado hit the place mentioned in the wording, let alone a big, destructive tornado. I'm sure that suggests to some a credibility issue...

What I don't get is MidWest folks gettin' all panicky "Y'all better move outta there!" when they hear a report of a 50% probability of a strong earthquake hitting a California town sometime in the next 40years.
Yet if there's a 50% chance of a tornado hitting their own town in the next several hours, it's all "Yeh, yeh." and a trip to a coffee shop for some gossip.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


I think one of the goals, for better or worse, is to make the warnings scarier or more "risk-based" so that people will assess their risk better. My personal hope is that it does not instead just raise the level of complacency further by desensitizing folks to scarier wording.

I almost couldn't believe the statistic when I heard it, but that's what it is. 50% of tornado emergencies dont even have an actual tornado hit the place mentioned in the wording, let alone a big, destructive tornado. I'm sure that suggests to some a credibility issue...


All valid points. I 'm fine with using scarier wording as long as we can continue to decrease our false alarm rate. I believe WFO's should also try and name landmarks and be more specific with where the strongest rotation is being noted. I'm not saying we should try and reduce the size of the polygon, as it's a good buffer zone, but with the high resolution radar these days and many storm spotters we should be able to do better.

Just the other day we had a Tornado Warning in Denver, and even though the storm was 10mi NE of the city and moving away, I was under a warning. EAS was going off on the TV and even sirens over by my friends school. Got about 30 texts from people asking if they were safe from around town.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm already getting tired and the main event has not even started yet.

The main energy hasn't even reached the high risk area yet. Wait until 21Z-0Z.
Thanks for reminding me :/
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Every single cell along this line in this frame is tornado warned!



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Wow the Storm west of Greensburg has a wallcloud that is almost on the ground. Skip Talbot has it.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
I'm already getting tired and the main event has not even started yet.

The main energy hasn't even reached the high risk area yet. Wait until 21Z-0Z.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
The lead cell in Iowa continues to chug on, although it doesn't look tornadic.

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At this rate a new tornadic cell is forming about every 30 to 45 minutes.

We could easily have an additional 30 tornadic cells before tomorrow morning at this rate.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520


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1148. nigel20
Quoting islander101010:
good to see they retired the name irene

Yeah, I saw that as well!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852
Five consecutive tornado warnings along the line from Kansas to just east of the Texas panhandle. Amazing!

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1146. ncstorm
Per NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory

DO NOT rely on FB or Twitter for your tornado warnings! NOAA Weather radio, nws.noaa.gov your best sources!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14461
Link Wow.

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
It looks like storm initialization is taking place along the dryline in Kansas and Nebraska behind the blob.

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tornado Vortex Signatures

0 W7 Republic KS 61 dBZ 40,000 ft. 42 kg/m 90% Chance 100% Chance 1.50 in. 74 knots SW (227)

0 Q1 Saline NE 61 dBZ 35,000 ft. 37 kg/m 60% Chance 100% Chance 1.00 in. 27 knots SW (233)

0 E6 Republic KS 57 dBZ 29,000 ft. 17 kg/m 30% Chance 90% Chance 0.50 in. 25 knots SW (223)


Severe Hail

1 W8 Kiowa KS 69 dBZ 42,000 ft. 75 kg/m 100% Chance 100% Chance 4.00 in. 43 knots SW (233)

1 U8 Harper OK 63 dBZ 45,000 ft. 81 kg/m 90% Chance 100% Chance 2.25 in. 35 knots SW (229)


NWS TORNADO WARNINGS

Both cells in Oklahoma.

On a line south of Dodge City

One is crossing the state line into Nebraska with a 3rd warning extended ahead of it.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1142. Speeky
This doesn't look good
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Storm SW of Greensburg...

Strangely enough, the velocity doesn't show much rotation with that one right now. I have a feeling that will change soon though.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Storm SW of Greensburg...
Yah look at it now...

Inflow is looking ridiculous right now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Quoting IceCoast:


One of the Kansas WFO's I believe issued a few warnings earlier with special wording. I don't recall them using the term PDS tornado warning, but the wording was most certainly more stern in delivering the message, i'll have to go back and look.

It's also a bummer about only having 50% accuracy on Tornado Emergency's. One would think it would be higher then this.


I think one of the goals, for better or worse, is to make the warnings scarier or more "risk-based" so that people will assess their risk better. My personal hope is that it does not instead just raise the level of complacency further by desensitizing folks to scarier wording.

I almost couldn't believe the statistic when I heard it, but that's what it is. 50% of tornado emergencies dont even have an actual tornado hit the place mentioned in the wording, let alone a big, destructive tornado. I'm sure that suggests to some a credibility issue...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
This one crossing from Oklahoma to Kansas looks like it could go tornadic very soon.



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More rain is on tap for Puerto Rico tonight and part of Sunday,and after that, drier weather will arrive for most of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST SAT APR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY...
STILL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN OR FLOOD EVENT AT THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL OCCUR...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH AND
RIVER FLOODING.

A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINES AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. GIVEN EXPECTED BORDERLINE
CONDITIONS...OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AN NPW FOR WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. IT CERTAINLY WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BUT FEEL IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH AND MAINTAIN THE
25 MPH OR GREATER SUSTAINED WINDS LOCAL CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND
USVI TAF SITES AS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE SITES THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CAUSING
MVFR CEILINGS. TNCM AND TKPK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 15 TO 22 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND THEN CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND REACH NEAR 17 DEGREES NORTH BY
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 80 72 81 / 90 40 20 20
STT 73 84 73 84 / 90 30 20 20
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014


Storm SW of Greensburg...
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good to see they retired the name irene
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


PDS warning is supposed to correlate to confirmed tornado in a tornado warning. I don't recall which offices are involved on the test, otherwise we could see if they had confirmed tornado warnings yet.


One of the Kansas WFO's I believe issued a few warnings earlier with special wording. I don't recall them using the term PDS tornado warning, but the wording was most certainly more stern in delivering the message, i'll have to go back and look.

It's also a bummer about only having 50% accuracy on Tornado Emergency's. One would think it would be higher then this.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
This seems to be the tornado SE of Dodge City, but it may actually be the TS behind it. Crazy map doesn't make sense.

W8 Ford KS 69 dBZ 43,000 ft. 79 kg/m 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.50 in. 41 knots SW (231)


W7 Republic KS 61 dBZ 41,000 ft. 34 kg/m 90% Chance 100% Chance 1.50 in. 80 knots SW (226)
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
There are a couple of very dangerous supercells embedded within this mass of rain.



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Quoting ScottLincoln:


PDS warning is supposed to correlate to confirmed tornado in a tornado warning. I don't recall which offices are involved on the test, otherwise we could see if they had confirmed tornado warnings yet.

From what I'm reading the test began on April 2nd in the following areas:
WFO St. Louis, MO
WFO Kansas City, MO
WFO Topeka, KS
WFO Wichita, KS
WFO Springfield, MO
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Another storm South West of Greensburg seems like it may produce something.

Yeah, it really flared up the last couple of frames. This one also looks like it will miss to the west though.



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Quoting ScottLincoln:


PDS warning is supposed to correlate to confirmed tornado in a tornado warning. I don't recall which offices are involved on the test, otherwise we could see if they had confirmed tornado warnings yet.
The KS NWS office was issuing warning with different wording so I guess there one of them.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So PDS warning were just created lol. Has one ever been issued?


PDS warning is supposed to correlate to confirmed tornado in a tornado warning. I don't recall which offices are involved on the test, otherwise we could see if they had confirmed tornado warnings yet.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
Another storm South West of Greensburg seems like it may produce something.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Orthogonal deep layer shear (to the dryline):



SR Helicities of 300-500 m^2/s^2



Instability



Tornado jet fuel.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So PDS warning were just created lol. Has one ever been issued?


not yet
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Rare, although increasing in use in the last few years. Different offices/regions have different criteria for "emergency" wording. Although the thought is to use that wording for very high-end events, like confirmed large tornadoes almost certainly about to hit a major city, there is a 50% false alarm rate even for tornado emergencies.



Not exactly true; the new wording experiment for warnings does allow for three levels of warning:
Tornado Warning
PDS Tornado Warning
Tornado Emergency
So PDS warning were just created lol. Has one ever been issued?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
He asked about a PDS warning which does not exist. There is a tornado emergency which is a storm with a large and extremely dangerous tornado.


Oh okayi gotchya thought y'all were talking about what a pds is haha
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Quoting IceCoast:


Thats a good clarification. If he means Tornado Emergency by PDS warning then those of course are more rare, usually requiring a confirmed large tornado heading into a populated area with a significant to threat of life and property. Either way I guess we got both questions answered now!


Rare, although increasing in use in the last few years. Different offices/regions have different criteria for "emergency" wording. Although the thought is to use that wording for very high-end events, like confirmed large tornadoes almost certainly about to hit a major city, there is a 50% false alarm rate even for tornado emergencies.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
He asked about a PDS warning which does not exist. There is a tornado emergency which is a storm with a large and extremely dangerous tornado.


Not exactly true; the new wording experiment for warnings does allow for three levels of warning:
Tornado Warning
PDS Tornado Warning
Tornado Emergency
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
the severe cell south of the Dodge City tornado box is nearing tornado conditions.

There is also another cell south of that one that just got upgraded to a severe TS with severe hail.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting weatherh98:


Means

Potentially Dangerous Situation
He asked about a PDS warning which does not exist. There is a tornado emergency which is a storm with a large and extremely dangerous tornado.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A watch or a warning?


Thats a good clarification. If he means Tornado Emergency by PDS warning then those of course are more rare, usually requiring a confirmed large tornado heading into a populated area with a significant to threat of life and property. Either way I guess we got both questions answered now!
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN KS AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 142001Z - 142030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS ADJACENT TO A N-S-ORIENTED ZONE OF SFC
CONFLUENCE CONTINUE TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
FROM CNTRL/SWRN KS INTO WRN OK. DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO
HOUR...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL/SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK WITH NEWD/ENEWD-TRACKING
SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY IN HODGEMAN/PAWNEE COUNTIES KS...KIOWA COUNTY
KS...HARPER COUNTY OK...AND AN INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE PLUME IN ELLIS
COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE RED RIVER...AND THE
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH 165 HAD EARLIER BEEN
EXTENDED SWD TO THE TX/OK BORDER. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
EXHIBITING A SUBSTANTIAL DRYLINE-ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT AND EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES OF AROUND 300-500 M2/S2...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO VIOLENT...ALONG WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38699975 39049894 38969811 37979783 37049792 36119838
34679905 34369957 34829993 36949997 38699975
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1117. redux
Quoting redux:
tornado on the ground in the burdett storm via spotter


roped out
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
Quoting mlewchuk:
How unusual is it for NWS to issue a PDS warning?
Anyone know when that last time they did that?


Find the last high risk day. They issue PDS watches during high risk days... on rare occasions maybe on higher-end moderate risk days.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think he means a tornado emergency.


Means

Potentially Dangerous Situation
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Uh-oh Greensburg, KS...

Looks like it's missing just to the west.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A watch or a warning?
I think he means a tornado emergency.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Quoting mlewchuk:
How unusual is it for NWS to issue a PDS warning?
Anyone know when that last time they did that?

A watch or a warning?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
1111. redux
tornado on the ground in the burdett storm via spotter
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
From above:

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Quoting mlewchuk:
How unusual is it for NWS to issue a PDS warning?
Anyone know when that last time they did that?


It's pretty rare, only a few events a season require a PDS watch. The last one i believe was the March 2nd outbreak of this year.
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267


Uh-oh Greensburg, KS...
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1107. nigel20
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7852

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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