Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
0z = 7 pm EST correct? Sorry, I'm not used to Z times...
8pm EDT and 7pm CDT
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Bluestorm5:
0z = 7 pm EST correct? Sorry, I'm not used to Z times...

In Daylight Savings Time ;)

0Z = 8 pm EDT/7 pm CDT
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well we're up to 19 tornado reports:




make that 20 nado reports
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 142154Z - 142300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 23Z EXPIRATION.

THE DRY LINE REMAINS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM GAGE...DODGE CITY
INTO THE MCCOOK AREA...AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
EASTWARD ACCELERATION PRIOR TO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK /AROUND 100 KT AT 500 MB/
FINALLY BEGINS TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE NEW DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR. 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AIDE THE PROPAGATION OF SUPERCELLS AWAY FROM THE
INITIATING ZONE...ACROSS CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
EASTERN...KANSAS...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHERE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 04/14/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

At or around 0Z, it is likely things will get crazy.


Many do.
0z = 7 pm EST correct? Sorry, I'm not used to Z times...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
1301. SouthDadeFish
9:55 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Well we're up to 19 tornado reports:

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1300. IceCoast
9:55 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Oh I see


If you're really feeling ambitious and want to learn more here are a few links from my course last semester going over soundings and severe thunderstorm indices.

Link
Link
Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
1299. Grothar
9:54 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Tail beginning to move South.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25287
1298. weatherh98
9:52 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The number is an integration, is the area between the parcel path and the environmental temperature. Think... calculus.


That's hard when you are in algebra 1 honors:)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1297. Patrap
9:52 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
1296. hurricane23
9:51 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
We'll see my friend. You very well may be correct. For the sake of those living in the Plains I hope not.


With these strong cells currently firing along the dryline in time they should propagate into the best environment right around 8pm.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
1295. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:51 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey, I've been out most of the day and heard about high risk this morning. When will this outbreak really take off? I do know there's multiple PDS watches now, though.

At or around 0Z, it is likely things will get crazy.

Quoting ncstorm:
I dont know who will want to be a spotter tonight especially when things will be at its worst in the plains--do they even chase at night?

Many do.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
1294. Patrap
9:51 PM GMT on April 14, 2012

290
WFUS53 KDDC 142150
TORDDC
KSC007-033-142215-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0024.120414T2150Z-120414T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
450 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BARBER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTH OF AETNA. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM. HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AETNA...HARDTNER...MEDICINE LODGE...SHARON AND HAZELTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3699 9861 3699 9909 3700 9909 3742 9865
3728 9834 3711 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 226DEG 48KT 3698 9895
HAIL 2.00IN

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127512
1293. ncstorm
9:50 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
I dont know who will want to be a spotter tonight especially when things will be at its worst in the plains--do they even chase at night?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14397
1292. SouthDadeFish
9:48 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricane23:


Give it another 2hrs or so trust me.
We'll see my friend. You very well may be correct. For the sake of those living in the Plains I hope not.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1291. Bluestorm5
9:48 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This isn't a typical tornado outbreak, the environment for strong and long-lived tornadoes will become increasingly favorable as the main wind shear and energy from the upper level low moves across the warm sector.
Hey, I've been out most of the day and heard about high risk this morning. When will this outbreak really take off? I do know there's multiple PDS watches now, though.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7896
1290. PlazaRed
9:47 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricane23:


The missing ingredient is the crazy helicities that come with the strengthening low level jet which will be the spark for a dangerous tornadic outbreak.

And we want it to stay missing until at least tomorrow lunch time?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2062
1289. hurricane23
9:47 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Possibly Adrian. It doesn't get much worse than tornadoes at night.

Helicity Analysis:



Give it another 2hrs or so trust me.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
1288. ILwthrfan
9:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012

Is there any chance that MCS near Omaha could possible veer east, maybe even a little south of east along that warm front?
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1456
1286. SouthDadeFish
9:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To show it will get worse with time.

Now:



03Z:

Well if the NAM is right that may change things.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1285. ScottLincoln
9:46 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


So then what is the "number" based on


The number is an integration, is the area between the parcel path and the environmental temperature. Think... calculus.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
1284. weatherh98
9:45 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Not always. The elevation where the parcel path crosses the environmental temperature is called the Level of Free Convection.

The lower that is, the easier it is to get storms going. It is also one of the two parameters that can be used to estimate the elevation of the storm base.

Think of this example... if you have a cold front moving through that is supposed to create storms, it must lift the warm, humid air from the surface past the LFC before storms will form. Once the warm, humid surface air reaches the LFC, it will freely climb into the atmosphere as an updraft. If the LFC is low, a weaker front could do it, if the LFC is high, it takes a stronger front. Generally-speaking.


Oh I see
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1283. hurricanehunter27
9:45 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I understand that, but I have a feeling they may become a squall line event tonight rather than a big supercell outbreak, kind of like what happened in E Nebraska today. I don't want anyone to let their guard down, just throwing my thoughts out there.
Dave, at some point it will but its most likely a long way off. The stronger cells with the dry line are killing the weaker ones near by as time goes on. So as it may seem like it may be forming a line in OK most of those storms will die off while a few will survive and prosper. That is what I have been seeing so far and I believe it will continue.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
1282. SouthDadeFish
9:44 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricane23:


The missing ingredient is the crazy helicities that come with the strengthening low level jet which will be the spark for a dangerous tornadic outbreak.
Possibly Adrian. It doesn't get much worse than tornadoes at night.

Helicity Analysis:



Strongest helicity is currently east of the supercells.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1281. weatherh98
9:43 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting IceCoast:


Not really, quite the opposite. The the parcel line will typically cross the temp line higher up in the atmosphere with a big CAPE value. If we look at this one out of northern OK you can see it crosses slightly lower, and the total area in between the two lines is smaller resulting in a lower CAPE then the Dodge City sounding in my last post.




So then what is the "number" based on
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1280. ScottLincoln
9:43 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Okay so the higher the cape value, the lower it would cross the temperature?


Not always. The elevation where the parcel path crosses the environmental temperature is called the Level of Free Convection.

The lower that is, the easier it is to get storms going. It is also one of the two parameters that can be used to estimate the elevation of the storm base.

Think of this example... if you have a cold front moving through that is supposed to create storms, it must lift the warm, humid air from the surface past the LFC before storms will form. Once the warm, humid surface air reaches the LFC, it will freely climb into the atmosphere as an updraft. If the LFC is low, a weaker front could do it, if the LFC is high, it takes a stronger front. Generally-speaking.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
1279. MAweatherboy1
9:43 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Ouch

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
WEST CENTRAL WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
SOFTBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR GAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...GAGE...FORT SUPPLY...FARGO...MAY...SELMAN AND TANGIER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO WARNING. GET
TO A STORM SHELTER OR STURDY BUILDING IF A TORNADO APPROACHES.

LARGE DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY. TAKE SHELTER NOW IN A STURDY
BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9953 3629 9984 3636 9983 3698 9963
3700 9961 3700 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 205DEG 69KT 3629 9971

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
1278. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:42 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricane23:


The missing ingredient is the crazy helicities that come with the strengthening low level jet which will be the spark for a dangerous tornadic outbreak.

To show it will get worse with time.

Now:



03Z:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
1277. MAweatherboy1
9:41 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting hurricane23:


The missing ingredient is the crazy helicities that come with the strengthening low level jet which will be the spark for a dangerous tornadic outbreak.

Exactly... Just wait an hour or two and the storms will really get going
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
1275. hurricanehunter27
9:41 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This isn't a typical tornado outbreak, the environment for strong and long-lived tornadoes will become increasingly favorable as the main wind shear and energy from the upper level low moves across the warm sector.
I find it annoying that people are not realizing that the event will get worse as time goes on.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
1274. IceCoast
9:41 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Okay so the higher the cape value, the lower it would cross the temperature?


Not really, quite the opposite. The the parcel line will typically cross the temp line higher up in the atmosphere with a big CAPE value. If we look at this one out of northern OK you can see it crosses slightly lower, and the total area in between the two lines is smaller resulting in a lower CAPE then the Dodge City sounding in my last post.


Member Since: October 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1267
1273. Tropicsweatherpr
9:41 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Tafb does not have a low placed in the Central Atlantic on 18z Surface Analysis,so I wonder if it will happen at all.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13992
1272. SouthDadeFish
9:40 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This isn't a typical tornado outbreak, the environment for strong and long-lived tornadoes will become increasingly favorable as the main wind shear and energy from the upper level low moves across the warm sector.
I understand that, but I have a feeling they may become a squall line event tonight rather than a big supercell outbreak, kind of like what happened in E Nebraska today. I don't want anyone to let their guard down, just throwing my thoughts out there.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1271. hurricane23
9:39 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Honestly, I haven't been that impressed thus far from this outbreak (which is a very good thing). Seems like most of the tornado reports were very brief touchdowns. Now that doesn't mean it can't get worse, but were are approaching the traditional diurnal peak for tornado formation.


The missing ingredient is the crazy helicities that come with the strengthening low level jet which will be the spark for a dangerous tornadic outbreak.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13624
1269. Speeky
9:39 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
3.50 inch hailstones are being produced from these storms.
Member Since: April 10, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 296
1268. 1900hurricane
9:38 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This storm greatly worries me

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BARBER AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF
LAKE CITY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...
SAWYER...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN BARBER AND SOUTHERN PRATT
COUNTIES.

THE ROTATION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS STORM, AND A
TORNADO IS LIKELY ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAWYER
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 9900 3765 9882 3752 9850 3719 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 236DEG 59KT 3742 9873
HAIL 2.75IN

That's this one.



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11665
1267. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:38 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Honestly, I haven't been that impressed thus far from this outbreak (which is a very good thing). Seems like most of the tornado reports were very brief touchdowns. Now that doesn't mean it can't get worse, but were are approaching the traditional diurnal peak for tornado formation.

This isn't a typical tornado outbreak, the environment for strong and long-lived tornadoes will become increasingly favorable as the main wind shear and energy from the upper level low moves across the warm sector.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31409
1266. hurricanehunter27
9:37 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting help4u:
Taz ,so storms are fizziling out?
Not at all. In fact the dry line convection has just started in OK. Its no where close to being over.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
1265. hurricanehunter27
9:36 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Honestly, I haven't been that impressed thus far from this outbreak (which is a very good thing). Seems like most of the tornado reports were very brief touchdowns. Now that doesn't mean it can't get worse, but were are approaching the traditional diurnal peak for tornado formation.
Well its expected to get worse as times go on into the night hours for the tornado threat. I'm pretty sure nothing has changed.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
1264. help4u
9:36 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Taz ,so storms are fizziling out?
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276
1263. MAweatherboy1
9:36 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
This storm greatly worries me

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BARBER AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF
LAKE CITY. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...
SAWYER...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN BARBER AND SOUTHERN PRATT
COUNTIES.

THE ROTATION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS STORM, AND A
TORNADO IS LIKELY ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAWYER
.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 9900 3765 9882 3752 9850 3719 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 236DEG 59KT 3742 9873
HAIL 2.75IN
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7597
1262. PlazaRed
9:36 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
having big problems here cpu fan keeps running on computer if i try and load anything the fan runs high forever and computer locks up had to delete all my stuff so it don't automacticly load something wrong on my end not tracking anything very limited here watching for the most part


Get An Hair dryer and put it on cold blow and point it into the vents on the computer. That should cool the son of the female dog down.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2062
1261. jamesrainier
9:35 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Des Moines is the capital and the most populous city in the US state of Iowa. It is also the county seat of Polk County. A small portion of the city extends into Warren County.

The five-county metropolitan area is ranked 88th in terms of population in the United States with 569,633 residents according to the 2010 count by the United States Census Bureau.[5] The city proper population was 203,433 at the 2010 census.[2]

Des Moines is a major center for the insurance industry ...In fact, Des Moines was credited with the "number one spot for U.S. insurance companies" in a Business Wire article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Des_Moines,_Iowa
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
1260. SouthDadeFish
9:35 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Honestly, I haven't been that impressed thus far from this outbreak (which is a very good thing). Seems like most of the tornado reports were very brief touchdowns. Now that doesn't mean it can't get worse, but were are approaching the traditional diurnal peak for tornado formation.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
1259. weatherh98
9:34 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:
The Tornado Warning from the SW Iowa Storm has been downgraded to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Still very dangerous though.


Expected thanks for that
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1258. PlazaRed
9:33 PM GMT on April 14, 2012
Quoteing a bit of:-1210. SouthDadeFish

"CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy and is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere is."

This is a term, I have been looking for, for decades!
Thank you so much, If I was a Bogus person, I could use this as a blogging on name!

One simple word that sums up so much, there isn't much in weather that isn't covered by that term!

Happy, Convective Atmospheric Potential Instability, CAPI.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2062

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.