Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Very impressive storm right in the middle of KS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7640
Quoting EugeneTillman:

I know someone mention a huge NASCAR event down near Fort Worth, Texas where supposedly 100,000 people were either attending or camping out at this weekend.

Though I'd venture to say I'm sure those folks who made the drive southbound are already at their destination enjoying some BBQ and a cold beer or two... ;)


I'm a huge NASCAR fan, and I can confirm that there's a race in Fort Worth, Texas tonight. About 191,000 people is attending the race tonight.
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1355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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They extended the tornado watch for Dodge city. Is the SPC expecting more cells behind these supercells?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Two new tornado warnings at the SE Nebraska / SW Iowa border.

It's two different vortices.

Looks like Friemont, Iowa
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1350. hydrus
144 hour jet forecast..
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TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 2211Z 14 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2205Z 14 APR 2012
COORDINATES - 19.1 SOUTH 168.8 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.6

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7640
North Platte, NE




I'm sure there's at least somebody on the Interstate there.

Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
Quoting EugeneTillman:
I have a funny feeling that we'll be dealing with that nasty cell due south of Woodward, OK for a long time. It's organizing rather quickly. It's not showing anything too impressive at the moment in terms of rotation, but will be heading into prime atmospheric conditions that will allow it to wreak havoc through possibly the entire state of Oklahoma through the evening.



I would not be surprised if this cell becomes one of the few long-lived cells that produces periodic tornadoes or at the very least mesocyclones throughout it's journey. The atmosphere is nearly perfect for it's development and sustainability. To make matters worse, the dewpoints were able to get very juicy along with very warm temperatures--thanks to a relatively lower cloud cover throughout much of the day.

We'll see what transpires...

I have to admit I am very impressed with your post so far. I give you a 10 out of 10 so far.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
1345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


I think one of the goals, for better or worse, is to make the warnings scarier or more "risk-based" so that people will assess their risk better. My personal hope is that it does not instead just raise the level of complacency further by desensitizing folks to scarier wording.

I almost couldn't believe the statistic when I heard it, but that's what it is. 50% of tornado emergencies dont even have an actual tornado hit the place mentioned in the wording, let alone a big, destructive tornado. I'm sure that suggests to some a credibility issue...

Found the NOAA Document on PDS Tornado Warnings
Here it Is: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/crh/IBW/Resources/I BW1pager.pdf
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Phew, the PDS wasn't showing up for me for a second...thought I was going to have to call the SPC. :P
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1342. hydrus
Quoting PlazaRed:

Hydrus!
Where on Earth are you getting these charts from?
Go to the SPC site, and then to the compmap link...here-Link
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tafb does not have a low placed in the Central Atlantic on 18z Surface Analysis,so I wonder if it will happen at all.

Patience. It's got to cut-off first.
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1338. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

TORNADO WATCH 170 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-009-013-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035 -039-041-047-
049-051-053-057-061-065-073-077-079-083-085-089-09 5-097-105-111-
113-115-117-123-127-131-135-137-139-141-143-145-14 7-149-151-155-
157-159-161-163-165-167-169-173-177-179-183-185-19 1-195-197-201-
150700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0170.120414T2225Z-120415T0700Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BARTON BROWN
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CLARK CLAY CLOUD
COFFEY COMANCHE COWLEY
DECATUR DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH
FORD GEARY GRAHAM
GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY
HODGEMAN JACKSON JEWELL
KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN
LYON MARION MARSHALL
MCPHERSON MITCHELL MORRIS
NEMAHA NESS NORTON
OSAGE OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE
PRATT RENO REPUBLIC
RICE RILEY ROOKS
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SHERIDAN
SMITH STAFFORD SUMNER
TREGO WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON


NEC087-145-150700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0170.120414T2225Z-120415T0700Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW


OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059 -065-071-073-
075-093-103-113-117-129-149-151-153-150700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0170.120414T2225Z-120415T0700Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM
BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY
ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT
GREER HARMON HARPER
JACKSON KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA MAJOR NOBLE
OSAGE PAWNEE ROGER MILLS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD


TXC087-211-295-483-150700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0170.120414T2225Z-120415T0700Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLLINGSWORTH HEMPHILL LIPSCOMB
WHEELER


ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...OUN...TSA...GLD...TOP...I CT...GID...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 518 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR NORTH
PLATTE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER
90 AND HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER 100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
Storm West of Penalosa KS is really starting to pick up.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
615 PM AST SAT APR 14 2012

PRC143-145-150115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0021.120414T2215Z-120415T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
615 PM AST SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
VEGA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VEGA ALTA...
VEGA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VEGA BAJA...

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED SHARP RISES ON
CIBUCO RIVER AN ITS TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS FLOODING IN ROADS AND
STREETS. AT 605 PM AST...U.S.G.S RIVER SENSORS ALONG CIBUCO RIVER
IN VEGA BAJA INDICATED THAT THE RIVER LEVEL WAS NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE
AT 14.68 FEET AND CONTINUING RISING. FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET. AT 25
FEET...RIVER FLOOD ROADS 160...676 AND 688.

MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE CIBUCO RIVER IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING
WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6633 1840 6631 1839 6643 1850 6640

$$

ER
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I know. He is amazing isn't he?. He always posts some good images.


Can we clone him so as he can be on here 24 hours?
I'm sure Skye will know who has the potion!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2066
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
511 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FREMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...
NEMAHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...
OTOE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 507 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH
. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTH OF SYRACUSE TO JOHNSON...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 43 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN TO 46
MILES NORTHWEST OF HIAWATHA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. NICKEL
SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEBRASKA CITY...AUBURN...SIDNEY...HAMBURG...PERU...RIVERTON ...
TALMAGE...DUNBAR...THURMAN...BROCK...BROWNVILLE...
JULIAN AND LORTON VILLAGE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
HIGHWAY 136 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 226 AND 240.
INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and with darkness something wicked this way comes


And as this winter of discontent is brought to glorious summer but this son of (New) York?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2066
1329. Grothar
Quoting PlazaRed:

Hydrus!
Where on Earth are you getting these charts from?


I know. He is amazing isn't he?. He always posts some good images.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1328. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wxgeek723:
The biggest fear here is definitely the timing, late evening to early morning is the worst time for a severe outbreak.
and with darkness something wicked this way comes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Woodward OK is now under a tornado warning. The cell looks rather weak.

Edit: Nvm it just has its hail way up in the atmosphere.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Quoting hydrus:
Boundary layer moisture (mixing ratio) convergence. This is a scalar divergence field generated by multiplying the mixing ratio by the convergence of the wind in the layer between 1000 mb and 925 mb. Only convergence is color-filled.

Hydrus!
Where on Earth are you getting these charts from?
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2066
1325. hydrus
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
21Z RUC run shows helicity really picking up by 00Z and bombing at 03Z like TropicalAnalystwx13 was saying. Forecast helicity values of 600 in Kansas and over 800 in Iowa... Wow! EHI's are crazy high during this time.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Sky is clearing in Norman, OK... have a feeling we wont see any action until 7 or 8, but supercells could blow up.
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1321. hydrus
Boundary layer moisture (mixing ratio) convergence. This is a scalar divergence field generated by multiplying the mixing ratio by the convergence of the wind in the layer between 1000 mb and 925 mb. Only convergence is color-filled.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The biggest fear here is definitely the timing, late evening to early morning is the worst time for a severe outbreak.
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New tornado warning SW of Woodward, Oklahoma, moving NNE.

More cells developing behind it.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
More tornado watches for Iowa/Missouri.

btw, any significant tornado yet?
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1317. hydrus
70 plus dew points into Oklahoma..
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1316. hydrus
CAPE - convective available potential energy (>=500 j/kg)- indicates energy available for buoyant parcel from native RUC2 hybrid-b level with maximum buoyancy within 300 mb of surface. CINH - convective inhibition, or negative area, typically associated with a capping inversion or warmer air aloft that tends to inhibit the release of buoyant energy.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This should shut down any beliefs that the worst has already has happened.



Yeah.

My problem right now is I'm just getting tired of watching them.

the chasers have not been particularly good at catching the funnels on video either.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In Daylight Savings Time ;)

0Z = 8 pm EDT/7 pm CDT
lol, I kept getting confused between 7 and 8 ;) however, I just saw MD issued by SPC saying the storms will continues to pop up well into 00z to 02z... outbreak is FARRRR from over, y'all.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you are safe this year EL nino will keep higher shear a round so you are safe



Ok, podna! Good news. I'm gonna hold you to that! Thanks. Take care, buddy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

TORNADO WATCH 169 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-051-053-077-099-117 -121-123-125-
135-153-157-159-173-175-179-181-185-150500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0169.120414T2200Z-120415T0500Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON CASS CLARKE
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
GUTHRIE JASPER LUCAS
MADISON MAHASKA MARION
MONROE POLK POWESHIEK
RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION
WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE


KSC043-150500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0169.120414T2200Z-120415T0500Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DONIPHAN


MOC001-003-005-021-025-049-061-063-075-079-081-087 -115-117-121-
129-147-171-197-211-227-150500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0169.120414T2200Z-120415T0500Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
LINN LIVINGSTON MACON
MERCER NODAWAY PUTNAM
SCHUYLER SULLIVAN WORTH


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Yo, Taz! Just peeking in, buddy. Getting about tahty time isn't it? Seems like there may be some bad tornadoes this evening, but I was wondering what your thoughts were about the upcoming hurricane season? Is it gonna be a bad one? TIA



you are safe this year EL nino will keep higher shear a round so you are safe
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS INTO NW OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 142154Z - 142300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 23Z EXPIRATION.

THE DRY LINE REMAINS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM GAGE...DODGE CITY
INTO THE MCCOOK AREA...AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
EASTWARD ACCELERATION PRIOR TO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK /AROUND 100 KT AT 500 MB/
FINALLY BEGINS TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE NEW DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR. 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AIDE THE PROPAGATION OF SUPERCELLS AWAY FROM THE
INITIATING ZONE...ACROSS CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
EASTERN...KANSAS...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHERE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 04/14/2012
This should shut down any beliefs that the worst has already has happened.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
Quoting weatherh98:


That's hard when you are in algebra 1 honors:)


Doesn't matter, textbook integration hardly ever works on real world data sets anyway.

You require a smooth curve or at least a piece-wise defined curve.


What you'll usually end up doing with real data sets is using a computer to approximate Riemann sums and just do it the "long" way...which is really about 5th grade level math anyway.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Tazmanian:




where tracking t-storms not STS right now so you may want too try asking that a little later one seem too be foces on severe weather and not what mode runs are showing about a STS so i would ask about that later



Yo, Taz! Just peeking in, buddy. Getting about that time isn't it? Seems like there may be some bad tornadoes this evening, but I was wondering what your thoughts were about the upcoming hurricane season? Is it gonna be a bad one? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
0z = 7 pm EST correct? Sorry, I'm not used to Z times...
8pm EDT and 7pm CDT
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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