Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on April 13, 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma

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Is this even possible?
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Witchitas suburbs are gonna get slammed
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Jedkins01:


just so you know, there is no F6 ;)



Fujita scale up to F12
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
1854. skook
Link


Link for live coverage from Wichita.
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I just got in the door.What's happening.
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Any good streaming tv channels for severe weather?
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well respected meteorologist from Charlotte (@wxbrad) is comparing this Greensburg/Fellsburg/Macksville tornado to Joplin... and also saying he got scan of near 210 mph.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


just so you know, there is no F6 ;)


Hypothetically, it would have >319 mph event.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
1776 TropicalAnalystwx13: Gate to gate velocites on this storm are near 300 knots.

345mph?555k/h?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Tornado Emergency in Macksville, KS
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1847. MZT
The hail reports tomorrow morning will be astounding. There will probably be many hail-damaged vehicles showing up at the insurance salvage auctions in a few months. :-O

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1846. redux
it looks like Saint John will take a direct hit from Greensburg tornado.
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1845. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
856 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC041-127-150230-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120415T0230Z/
MORRIS KS-DICKINSON KS-
856 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND
WESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 853 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LINCOLNVILLE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. A TRAINED SPOTTER
REPORTED A TORNADO JUST WEST OF LINCOLNVILLE.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HERINGTON...BURDICK...LATIMER AND WILSEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9694 3861 9694 3860 9704 3861 9706
3868 9693 3881 9676 3864 9653 3852 9675
3852 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 228DEG 33KT 3852 9697

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.50IN

$$

PHILLIPS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The storm near Manchester has 228 knots gate to gate velocity.



That's not gate to gate... the maxima of both directions are not azimuth by azimuth. You might mean "peak-to-peak" instead.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The storm near Manchester has 228 knots gate to gate velocity.


That's 262.2 mph!
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this is the beast near the KS/OK border - max neg 94, max pos 122! thats 216kt!

hopefully it doesn't track to wichita!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The storm near Manchester has 228 knots gate to gate velocity.



Does that mean that you then have to divide by two?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
900 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC047-145-151-185-150215-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-120415T0215Z/
STAFFORD KS-PRATT KS-PAWNEE KS-EDWARDS KS-
900 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR MACKSVILLE...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN EDWARDS...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN PRATT AND STAFFORD COUNTIES UNTIL
915 PM CDT...

AT 859 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY
STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF MACKSVILLE. THIS TORNADIC STORM
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MACKSVILLE...
DILLWYN...
ST. JOHN...
SEWARD...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN EDWARDS...NORTHWESTERN PRATT...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND STAFFORD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS CONFIRMED! TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Quoting Jedkins01:


just so you know, there is no F6 ;)
Not until today.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
1838. Patrap
Wichita
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
well, Idk then... I'm just a rookie lol. On serious note, if that's 300 knots... well, I got no words for that :\
I don't know either but that does not seem right you dont get 390 knots of shear on radar for an EF5.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Moore almost doesn't count as an F5 if they went with that as surface winds, borderline F6 tornado.


just so you know, there is no F6 ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado Emergency
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
1834. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
901 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

NEC041-071-115-150230-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-120415T0230Z/
CUSTER NE-GARFIELD NE-LOUP NE-
901 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUP...SOUTHERN GARFIELD AND NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 930
PM CDT...

AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KENT DIVERSION
DAM STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERWYN...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BURWELL...WESTERVILLE AND COMSTOCK AROUND 905 PM CDT.
ARCADIA DIVERSION DAM STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA AROUND 910 PM
CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE HIGHWAY 91
MILE MARKER 70.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NORTH PLATTE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9888 4173 9920 4134 9921 4136 9977
4188 9952 4187 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 271DEG 34KT 4173 9922 4125 9952
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

JACOBS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting photonchaser:
Is is possible to get a tornado over an EF5 rating?


It's never been confirmed on Earth.

But the rating scale has no theoretical limit, it goes up to at least F12...

But there has never been an confirmed F6 on Earth.

Even the Moore tornado does not qualify...


It could easily happen elsewhere in the solar system, we just don't have the technology to measure it yet.


There are thousand mile per hour vortices on Uranus and Neptune, for example.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
That would be EF 4, but radar probably isn't measuring surface winds. That is winds higher up, in the mesocyclone. Doesn't mean it can't be EF 4 though.


Nothing tomorrow cant figure out
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting RTSplayer:
The Moore tornado was one of the few "TRUE" F5 tornados, and was measured as such via radar.

A lot of other "f5" were estimated as such from damage estimates. Which they later learned the system was over-estimating the intensity of the storms, which is why they made the new EF system.

Moore was actually measured by radar as 318mph...


Moore almost doesn't count as an F5 if they went with that as surface winds, borderline F6 tornado.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
@wxbrad: Just got a scan at 207.2 mph winds in this tornado on Kansas. twitpic.com/99wnl7 you need to be below... fb.me/10TwgGhdK

Brad Panovich WCNC
@wxbrad
Chief Meteorologist at News Channel 36 WCNC-NBC TV Major Weather & Tech Geek! I Blog at wxbrad.com #cltwx #ncwx #scwx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Half-mile wide in Harper, heading towards Wichita, KS.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


172 = EF4 Tornado.


Well that's what's on the ground
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
I've seen what 200 mph can do firsthand...after that...it's just varrying levels of absolute destruction. Not fun tonight. Stay safe!
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah.

Moore was 318mph.

300kts is 345mph.


I don't know if that's how Moore was measured though.

I think Moore was measured 1 way as 318mph...


Josh Wurman (i know i spelled his last name wrong) measured it with the mobile radar truck, i watched a entire documentary on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Moore tornado was one of the few "TRUE" F5 tornados, and was measured as such via radar.

A lot of other "f5" were estimated as such from damage estimates. Which they later learned the system was over-estimating the intensity of the storms, which is why they made the new EF system.

Moore was actually measured by radar as 318mph...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I don't think that is how it works Blue.
well, Idk then... I'm just a rookie lol. On serious note, if that's 300 knots... well, I got no words for that :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1823. LargoFl
TORNADO WARNING
KSC047-145-151-185-150215-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0030.120415T0152Z-120415T0215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
852 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO 2 MILES
NORTH OF TROUSDALE. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH. DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE
IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOPEWELL...BELPRE...ZOOK...MACKSVILLE...DILLWYN... ST. JOHN...
SEWARD...HUDSON...RADIUM...STAFFORD AND ZENITH.

DOPPLER RADAR CONFIRMS VIOLENT DESTRUCTION WITH THIS TORNADO. TAKE
LIFE SAVING PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM!


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS CONFIRMED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW.
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9902 3774 9926 3782 9931 3827 9900
3827 9847 3826 9847 3795 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 224DEG 50KT 3784 9908
HAIL 4.25IN

$$

RUSSELL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


What's 172 mph?

EF 3?
That would be EF 4, but radar probably isn't measuring surface winds. That is winds higher up, in the mesocyclone. Doesn't mean it can't be EF 4 though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting photonchaser:
Is is possible to get a tornado over an EF5 rating?


Anything over 200 mph is an EF5, the new rating got rid of the F6 rating 'theory'
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
The storm near Manchester has 228 knots gate to gate velocity.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
1818. LargoFl
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Greensburg/Fellsburg storm is moving at 80 MPH O_O also got softball hail... this is the tornado of the outbreak.
amazing storm this is tonight, people are going to be suffering alot im afraid come morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


What's 172 mph?

EF 3?


172 = EF4 Tornado.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Is is possible to get a tornado over an EF5 rating?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A very powerful tornado is on the ground, extremely impressive radar signature, based on radar returns it could be a EF4 to EF5 unfortunately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


What's 172 mph?

EF 3?
EF4.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
Quoting Bluestorm5:
hold on cowboy... you divided that by half. It's 150 knots.


What's 172 mph?

EF 3?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Greensburg/Fellsburg storm is moving at 80 MPH O_O also got softball hail... this is the tornado of the outbreak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I've lost track of the Alva/cherokee circulation which was heading toward Witchita's direciton. It seems the storm in Manchaster, OK has jumped the border into Kansas and "ate" the Alva/cherokee supercell. Now, the Manchester cell is heading toward Witchita. Is that correct?


it has south Witchita in its cross-hairs:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have 2 storms with red TVS's. One of them is going into a large city...
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3852
One of the supercells is moving into range of the Wichita Airport radar.





This is at .20*, which is a lower angle than the normal radars, and therefore closer to the ground.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If it was 300 knots on the ground it would be the strongest wind ever measured on earth correct?


Yeah.

Moore was 318mph.

300kts is 345mph.


I don't know if that's how Moore was measured though.

I think Moore was measured 1 way as 318mph...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Reed Timmer is on his way to intercept the Greensburg monster it appears.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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