Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on April 12, 2012

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Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.


Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.

History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:

1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.

2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.

4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.

6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.

Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.


Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.

First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>05 6-058-059-14 1115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-C LAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-G EARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COF FEY-ANDERSON-
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THAT REMAIN ORGANIZED WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 PM CDT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS. WITH SUPPORTIVE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND STRONG TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

$$

BLAIR
those poor people..going to have to deal with possible Supercells?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-14 1115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-C LAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-G EARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COF FEY-ANDERSON-
609 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS THAT REMAIN ORGANIZED WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 PM CDT...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS. WITH SUPPORTIVE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF BASEBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND STRONG TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AFTER DARK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

$$

BLAIR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
With all the hype for tomorrow no one has mentioned the potential for today... SPC is bumping up tornado chances...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 86 Comments: 8189
Tomorrow will be the Titanic's 100th anniversary.Today will be the last day that it sailed above the water....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
517. DDR
Good morning all
1.7 inches of rain fell @my location in Trinidad yesterday evening which is the monthly average in just about 8 hours.crazy stuff...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We may see a couple of 8s or maybe a 9Saturday April 14
IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS south-central - 7
KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE southeast - 5
NE northeast - 4 to 5
OK northwest, north-central - 7
OK southwest - 5
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

MOZ066-067-131215-
ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-
639 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON AND
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 635 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALKER...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
NEVADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE APPLETON CITY...HARWOOD...JOHNSON CITY...
MONEGAW SPRINGS...SCHELL CITY...TABERVILLE AND WALKER.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3822 9394 3805 9378 3781 9421 3804 9442
3806 9438 3806 9427 3804 9423 3806 9421
3805 9419 3806 9413 3804 9407 3821 9406
3822 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 235DEG 29KT 3797 9427

$$

LINDENBERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Remember this! 5/3/1999




No, I was two. :P

I've heard a lot about it though. Oklahoma City is a common target after all.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wichita...Oklahoma City...two of the biggest targets for tomorrow's outbreak.



Remember this! 5/3/1999



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Dr. Greg Forbes may still be in bed right now some one else may be doing it so when he come in to work he will likey bump them up
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Wichita and Oklahoma City...two of the biggest targets for tomorrow's outbreak.



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.


I will ask you again after this weekend
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Quoting ncstorm:


with what you just said about this being HISTORIC, you still think people should ride out this storm above ground and not in their basements?

The idea of people staying in their basements all day is crazy. What I would do however is get everything I essentially need and put it in the basement, and stay above ground until there is a tornado warning issued.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas. We are likely going to see multiple long-tracked/damaging tornadoes. The thing that sickens me is that we know people live there and we know that somebody is probably going to die. :\

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY.


I know and I agree with you but I just can't imagine that we could do this again this year when what 700 to 800 people died last yuear from tornadoes. Sorry if those numbers are wrong. I wonder if theres a link between these tornado outbreaks which are seemingly becoming more frequent and deadly to Global Warming. There must be a link maybe GW is putting more moisture into jet stream causing these extreme events.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas. We are likely going to see multiple long-tracked/damaging tornadoes. The thing that sickens me is that we know people live there and we know that somebody is probably going to die. :\

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY.


with what you just said about this being HISTORIC, you still think people should ride out this storm above ground and not in their basements?
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I hope the affected local news stations are warning the population in harms way.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I do think we will see a serious event but probably not on the scale of what we saw with last years outbreaks.


They never got a Day 2 High Risk like we have witnessed this morning. This is only the second time in history. The last time it happened, we had a 60% tornado probability issued. It's not just the coverage of storms/tornadoes for tomorrow, it's their strength. Hodos and wind profiles for tomorrow evening/night are insane across northern Oklahoma and central Kansas. We are likely going to see multiple long-tracked/damaging tornadoes. The thing that sickens me is that we know people live there and we know that somebody is probably going to die. :\

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is going to be one of the worst tornado outbreaks in history. This could rival the outbreaks of April 14-16, 2011 and potentially even April 25-26-28, 2011.


I do think we will see a serious event but probably not on the scale of what we saw with last years outbreaks.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
This is going to be one of the worst tornado outbreaks in history, except maybe save the 2011 Super Outbreak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
according to GMA this morning, the last time the SPC issued a threat like this was last year during the Tusculoosa and Joplin tornados where over 300 people died..
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Second time in history guys, second time in history.

This is amazing and extremely life threatening.

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Also driest in 10 years across the NE US!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Headline of the USA TODAY is Drought spreading across the country with 61% Abnormally Dry. WOW!!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
good morning folks...........HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJ OR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-B ECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCC LAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-J ACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COT TON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMA N-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A HOLDENVILLE
TO ADA AND ARDMORE LINE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM TO
2 AM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DRAW
MORE HUMID AIR OVER SOUTH TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT. SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM ALONG
THE WARM FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH OTHER STORMS FORMING ALONG
THE DRYLINE NEAR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS NEAR 70 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
A BETTER CHANCE FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING MAKING SURE SAFEROOMS AND SHELTERS ARE
READY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
$$
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I hope everyone stays safe and keeps an eye on the weather today and the next couple of days. Have a great Friday, everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We are going to witness a special event tomorrow... Maybe not as bad as April 27, but it will be special.


I lost count of how many times they say a significant tornado outbreak is likely tomorrow

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL
AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO
VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT


...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL
OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

NAM AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA
KS SWD TO AROUND OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000
J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE. IN
ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.


...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEB WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPANDING NWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION...THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS SERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND ERN KS WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS
LOCATED.

...NW TX/WCNTRL TX...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL DUE
TO THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING
THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 86 Comments: 8189
00z ECMWF continues to show a sub-tropical storm, developing in 96 hours.
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Dr. Forbes over at TWC just updated his TOR:CON numbers. A bit surprisingly, however, he has no numbers higher than a 7 at this time, not even for tomorrow (Saturday):

Friday April 13
OK southwest, west, north-central - 4
KS south-central - 4

Friday Night April 13
OK north - 5
KS southeast, south-central - 5

Saturday April 14
IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS south-central - 7
KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE southeast - 5
NE northeast - 4 to 5
OK northwest, north-central - 7
OK southwest - 5
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2

Saturday Night April 14
IA west - 5
KS south-central, east - 6
OK north, central, west - 6
MN southwest - 5
MO northwest - 4
NE east - 5
TX north-central - 5

Sunday April 15
AR northwest - 4
IA east - 6
IL northwest - 4
KS southeast - 4
MN southeast -6
MN south - 4
MO - 4
OK southeast - 4
TX northeast - 4
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wow 60% incredible
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Interesting, I come to check out WU after a couple of weeks and see an interesting-looking low in the mid-Atlantic that looks like some sub-tropical lows I've seen last fall. Near 30N/60W. I was curious, so I read the article and - sure enough - the last part mentions a possible named storm east of Bermuda. Can I safely assume it is the same system?


You assumed correctly.
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Interesting, I come to check out WU after a couple of weeks and see an interesting-looking low in the mid-Atlantic that looks like some sub-tropical lows I've seen last fall. Near 30N/60W. I was curious, so I read the article and - sure enough - the last part mentions a possible named storm east of Bermuda. Can I safely assume it is the same system?
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Don't post often either, but I believe this should only be the second high risk ever issued for Day 2, the day before the event. Not that this necessarily means it will be any worse than other high risk days, but it does indicate an exceptionally high confidence of significant severe weather.
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lurker;
first post ever.

whoa.
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.
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night nig20
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Good night all
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8840
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 58217
Quoting KoritheMan:


The one in post 460? Yes.

Yeah, thanks
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8840
A few days ago, the USGS Earthquake Real-time Earthquake Map abandoned red boxes to visually represent recent earthquakes.

Their timing couldn't have been better ...

Earthquake forecast:
October 5, 2011.
"The Homeland is about as secure as a matchbox full of Mexican jumping beans. When the lid is removed, they will fly out as if they had wings."



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Ordinary people who aren't weather fanatics appear to rarely watch the news or weather.

So what the NWS needs to do is get on FOX and CNN and radio and tell everybody, "Hey, this is what it's going to be, etc, etc, GO TELL YOUR FRIEND AND NEIGHBOR, and make sure they know."


Like I said, Twitter, facebook, etc, didn't seem to get it done last year, even with all the internet and television programs.


People seem to just not even know what's going on, even with all the forecasts and technology, because nobody communicates with one another.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting nigel20:

Is this trough system what the models are developing?


The one in post 460? Yes.
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Quoting Grothar:

Is this trough system what the models are developing?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8840
Quoting jamesrainier:


Are you referring to the late April tornado super outbreak?


Well yeah, but it's still going to be a tad farther north than that.

I don't want to scare anybody just yet, but there's already been some people say they should put a PDS warning on it.


I figure by tomorrow mid-day we'll see what happens and how the system evolves, and probably by afternoon there should be some outbreaks starting.

But the 14th, 15th, and 16th are going to be the days that bad stuff happens.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting RTSplayer:
This is going to be a lot like last year, unfortunately.


Are you referring to the late April tornado super outbreak?
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