March 2012: warmest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on April 10, 2012

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Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.



Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.



Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jedkins01:



What is the deal with the Heartland Institute, I realize they reject any kind of evidence for Climate Change, but who are the people that the Heartland Institute is composed of?

Are there any atmospheric scientists part of it at all?

I'm just curious.


I believe it is a PR operation of some kind
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
The Witchita Falls tornado was horrific. Its falling apart, but I still have the book I bought on this very tornado that was published a couple of months after it happened. Wichita Falls, Texas Tornado

View looking north from south shore of Lake Wichita at the tornado approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. The tornado has widened and intensified at this stage. Pat BlacklockView looking southwest at the approaching tornado from the roof of Bethania Hospital in Wichita Falls, Texas. Troy Glover

That looks like an F4 or F5, was that an F4 or F5?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
Quoting Neapolitan:
On a related note, I find it continually fascinating that denialists will dismiss thousands of modern, calibrated thermometers as poorly sited and fraudulent, while they'll latch onto a multiple-party hearsay recounting of a localized weather event that allegedly occurred 167 years ago and was recorded in some lonely farmer's diary, using a piece of 200-year-old technology that was so inaccurate that it hasn't been used for more than a century.


well...ya gotta play the hand you're dealt...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
The Witchita Falls tornado was horrific. Its falling apart, but I still have the book I bought on this very tornado that was published a couple of months after it happened. Wichita Falls, Texas Tornado

View looking north from south shore of Lake Wichita at the tornado approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. The tornado has widened and intensified at this stage. © Pat BlacklockView looking southwest at the approaching tornado from the roof of Bethania Hospital in Wichita Falls, Texas. © Troy Glover

My word! that looked like a monster
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7817
Quoting Skeptic33:
I guess Masters didn't go far back to January of 1846...

Source:David Ludlum%u2019s %u201CEarly American Winters%u201D.
On a related note, I find it continually fascinating that denialists will dismiss thousands of modern, calibrated thermometers as poorly sited and fraudulent, while they'll latch onto a multiple-party anecdotal recounting of a localized weather event that allegedly occurred 167 years ago and was recorded in some lonely farmer's diary, using a piece of 200-year-old technology that was so inaccurate that it hasn't been used for more than a century.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Despite having nearly an hour's advance warning that severe weather was imminent, 42 people were killed (25 in vehicles) and 1,800 were injured because the storm arrived just in time for many people to be driving home from work.[9]

Speaking of lessons...not ... learned.
The Witchita Falls tornado was horrific. Its falling apart, but I still have the book I bought on this very tornado that was published a couple of months after it happened. Wichita Falls, Texas Tornado

View looking north from south shore of Lake Wichita at the tornado approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. The tornado has widened and intensified at this stage. © Pat BlacklockView looking southwest at the approaching tornado from the roof of Bethania Hospital in Wichita Falls, Texas. © Troy Glover
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
Quoting Jedkins01:



You are correct, TWC went downhill because of the merger.


Dr. Forbes is amongst my favorite when it comes to meteorologists though, he is a weather genius, my dream was to get where he is, although I'm probably not proficient enough in mathematics to ever get there.
Takes a lot more than math to be a weather genius. Hang onto your dream.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skeptic33:
I guess Masters didn't go far back to January of 1846...







Source:David Ludlum’s “Early American Winters”.


Whoa whoa hold on just a minute... that one context-less, scanned page from an outdated book with no references on a singular weather event ages ago DISPROVES EVERYTHING!

Or maybe, as is more likely the case, it is from a period when we did not have well-established meteorological observations covering the country (let alone the globe), nor well-established climatological averages by which to calculate anomalies, and as such it should be treated as an anecdotal source, one of the lowest on the list of scientific credibility.
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Eastern pacific vertical shear

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7817
Quoting Jedkins01:



What is the deal with the Heartland Institute, I realize they reject any kind of evidence for Climate Change, but who are the people that the Heartland Institute is composed of?

Are there any atmospheric scientists part of it at all?

I'm just curious.


If only it were just rejection of climate science, but it doesn't end there.

According to one source (SourceWatch), there are no actual climate scientists on Heartland's payroll. The head of their Environmental wing is a lawyer. There is also this list of individuals that Heartland has referred to as "global warming experts" in the past:
http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Heartland_ Institute/Global_warming_experts

The Heartland Institute is a libertarian think tank that has been called many times for questioning fairly well-established science, particularly when it may be cause for government regulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Despite having nearly an hour's advance warning that severe weather was imminent, 42 people were killed (25 in vehicles) and 1,800 were injured because the storm arrived just in time for many people to be driving home from work.[9]

Speaking of lessons...not ... learned.
Good thing school was out for the day. The only real safe place in that Wichita Falls tornado would have been underground.
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Atlantic vertical shear


Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7817
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS has it too, just a little closer in time.



(I just remembered...these images aren't showing up are they?)


Sub tropical storm plzzz
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS has it too, just a little closer in time.



(I just remembered...these images aren't showing up are they?)


No, they are, it must have been fixed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skeptic33:
I guess Masters didn't go far back to January of 1846...







Source:David Ludlum%u2019s %u201CEarly American Winters%u201D.


It seems that this article was written for one location. I understand that your point is that even then we had months that went way over normal. Dr. Masters' point is that this was the warmest March ever, as well as the warmest 12 month period on record. I'm no AGW enthusiast by any means, but a tiny article written about one location in America in the 1800s does not disprove or prove anything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7817
Quoting hydrus:
They are on my screen.

Cool, looks like remote linking was enabled again.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS has it too, just a little closer in time.



(I just remembered...these images aren't showing up are they?)
They are on my screen.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
379. Barefootontherocks

SESAME - Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale
Experiment (SESAME) conducted during the
spring of 1979


Link
Gosh, nrt. You uncovered an interesting piece of history. Thanks. I will read it. :) So far, have only looked at the pics. The SESAME experiment film archive of the Seymour tornado probably survives, like in a vault at OU.
Quoting PedleyCA:
379. Barefootontherocks

I noticed they left storm #10 off the map. I searched for that and (Prague) is off to the upper right of map. I don't know these areas very well being from the West Coast. That was an interesting post.
Yes. Prague would be NE on a line with 7, 8 & 9. Glad the post interested you. I take it CA is California. lol
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GFS has it too, just a little closer in time.



(I just remembered...these images aren't showing up are they?)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
Quoting FrankZapper:
Dr Wok just came out with his 2012 forecast 4-4-3. He is a new player in the game and uses the new GFLST super model. I anticipate some bugs early on with his forecasts but he should easily outshine the amateurs on this site.

Oh is it time for the imaginary people and models now? I thought was Lucreto's job?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
I guess Masters didn't go far back to January of 1846...







Source:David Ludlum’s “Early American Winters”.
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Side note: Globally, there hasn't been a tropical cyclone in 7 days. The last one, Tropical Cyclone Daphne, became extratropical on the 3rd.

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
379. Barefootontherocks

SESAME - Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale
Experiment (SESAME) conducted during the
spring of 1979


Link
Interesting read. Puts things in a nice perspective. A History of Severe-Storm-Intercept Field Programs Very cool. Thanks!!!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5935
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Good evening. Looks like potpourri night. Just wanted to share something I posted in my blog earlier this eve...

Well, (A well is a hole in the ground with water in it.)
I went to NWS Norman page to see what they had to say about the tornadoes and big hail near Woodward and Sharon, Oklahoma yesterday. That info is here: Information about the April 9, 2012 Large Hail and Tornadoes

What I did not expect to find was a neat piece of weather history, a summary with photos and maps of
The Red River Valley Tornado Outbreak of April 10, 1979. This weather event illustrates what three discrete supercells can do.

Some of the links in the page text do not work but you can get around that by clicking links under the photos at the top. You can also click the map below to go to the main page of this article.



Upper right of map says, "Mapped by Fujita and Wakimoto The University of Chicago (Based on data as of May 5,'79) Mapping for 'Sesame' 1979. Whaaa? Did they name outbreaks back then? Is "Sesame" a name for this outbreak?

Incredible tornado photos and stories.

"The three main storms in the Red River Valley outbreak were giant tornadoes. Each lasted for an hour or more and left a continuous track of ground damage 35 miles or longer. In addition, the damage paths of all three were wider than normal. This was especially true of the Wichita Falls tornado, whose more than 1-mile-wide path of damage is one of the biggest on record. T. T. Fujita, noted tornado researcher from the University of Chicago, said, 'The damage path was one of the widest I have ever seen, and its intensity was almost equal to that of the giant storm that leveled Xenia, Ohio, in the 1974 tornado outbreak.'"

Just as with 2011, I see lessons in the April 10, 1979 outbreak regarding the value of mass media for disseminating risk and warnings, folks not heeding warnings right away, school safety, large venue safety and the beauty of government officials having storm spotters in place. In view of 2011, not much has changed.
:)
Despite having nearly an hour's advance warning that severe weather was imminent, 42 people were killed (25 in vehicles) and 1,800 were injured because the storm arrived just in time for many people to be driving home from work.[9]

Speaking of lessons...not ... learned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr Wok just came out with his 2012 forecast 4-4-3. He is a new player in the game and uses the new GFLST super model. I anticipate some bugs early on with his forecasts but he should easily outshine the amateurs on this site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strange;

Euro is picking up on a possible low pressure "thing" in the central atlantic, moving SW on about the 17th.

It had something in a similar position 2 or 3 runs ago, slightly south of there, and then backed off of it, but now it's back again.

Some of the other models have something out there on the 13th, but that doesn't seem to make sense unless the same system is going to be meandering around other there for days, and then turn back south and west again...It has happened before, but would be weird to see it in April.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
This is interesting..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well ok ya talking bout cat 5's well I think if we get any cat 5's it will be like Iavn 04,Katrina 05, wilma 05 and Dean 07 either one or two of these type tracks right anyone that make a big fus of what I am saying is stupid because I did not say it will happen I am just saying it may happen

Ahhhh. I would understand you a lot more if you would slow down and use punctuation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31415
well ok ya talking bout cat 5's well I think if we get any cat 5's it will be like Iavn 04,Katrina 05, wilma 05 and Dean 07 either one or two of these type tracks right anyone that make a big fus of what I am saying is stupid because I did not say it will happen I am just saying it may happen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I remember thinking after Georges killed so many and did so much damage across the Greater Antilles that Georges would be the "storm of the season".

Then came Mitch.
Mitch actually hit us as a tropical storm, And it did get rather nasty. I remember tracking the remnant low across Mexico, and saying to myself, after all the death and destruction this thing just caused, it still wants to kill and destroy . Like some kind of evil entity.Rank Hurricane Season Fatalities
1 "Great Hurricane" 1780 22,000
2 Mitch 1998 19,325+
3 "Galveston" 1900 8,000 – 12,000
4 Fifi 1974 8,000 – 10,000
5 "Dominican Republic" 1930 2,000 – 8,000
6 Flora 1963 7,186 – 8,000
7 "Pointe-à-Pitre" 1776 6,000+
8 "Newfoundland" 1775 4,000 – 4,163
9 "Okeechobee" 1928 4,075+
10 "Monterrey" 1909 4,000
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
Quoting Jedkins01:



You are correct, TWC went downhill because of the merger.


Dr. Forbes is amongst my favorite when it comes to meteorologists though, he is a weather genius, my dream was to get where he is, although I'm probably not proficient enough in mathematics to ever get there.


You'll get there Jed...believe me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
379. Barefootontherocks

I noticed they left storm #10 off the map. I searched for that and (Prague) is off to the upper right of map. I don't know these areas very well being from the West Coast. That was an interesting post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
379. Barefootontherocks

SESAME - Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale
Experiment (SESAME) conducted during the
spring of 1979


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening. Looks like potpourri night. Just wanted to share something I posted in my blog earlier this eve...

Well, (A well is a hole in the ground with water in it.)
I went to NWS Norman page to see what they had to say about the tornadoes and big hail near Woodward and Sharon, Oklahoma yesterday. That info is here: Information about the April 9, 2012 Large Hail and Tornadoes

What I did not expect to find was a neat piece of weather history, a summary with photos and maps of
The Red River Valley Tornado Outbreak of April 10, 1979. This weather event illustrates what three discrete supercells can do.

Some of the links in the page text do not work but you can get around that by clicking links under the photos at the top. You can also click the map below to go to the main page of this article.



Upper right of map says, "Mapped by Fujita and Wakimoto The University of Chicago (Based on data as of May 5,'79) Mapping for 'Sesame' 1979. Whaaa? Did they name outbreaks back then? Is "Sesame" a name for this outbreak?

Incredible tornado photos and stories.

"The three main storms in the Red River Valley outbreak were giant tornadoes. Each lasted for an hour or more and left a continuous track of ground damage 35 miles or longer. In addition, the damage paths of all three were wider than normal. This was especially true of the Wichita Falls tornado, whose more than 1-mile-wide path of damage is one of the biggest on record. T. T. Fujita, noted tornado researcher from the University of Chicago, said, 'The damage path was one of the widest I have ever seen, and its intensity was almost equal to that of the giant storm that leveled Xenia, Ohio, in the 1974 tornado outbreak.'"

Just as with 2011, I see lessons in the April 10, 1979 outbreak regarding the value of mass media for disseminating risk and warnings, folks not heeding warnings right away, school safety, large venue safety and the beauty of government officials having storm spotters in place. In view of 2011, not much has changed.
:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


The merger or buyout or whatever with MSNBC ruined it. Also they merged or bought out Twitter, so then we have to have some guy spend 6 of 1 to 2 minute segments per hour telling us what every know-nothing on social media is "tweeting" about, as if we care. I tuned in to watch the weather and get some alleged experts opinion, not read some idiot fan's Twitter posts.

I think this was a big part of why Dr. Lyons left TWC, because it became too political. I recall he said he wanted to forecast weather and save lives, or something, implying he must have thought TWC was no longer the best environment for that.


Still, Dr. Forbes is the best weather guy around for severe weather.

Brian Norcross doesn't have the knowledge Dr. Lyons had, but I'm glad he at least has a no-nonsense style when it comes to informing people of the storms impacts, which they certainly did last year for Irene regarding inland flooding and such.

Of course, people who don't actually watch the weather or listen to what they're told then tried to turn around an blame the forecasters for over estimating wind damage, or others blamed them for under-estimating rains...well, nobody's perfect...


Anyway, I just wish TWC would go back like they were 5 to 10 years ago. Like split from Twitter and MSNBC and go back to doing real weather forecasting and science programs.
Really nice post.+1000
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I think I'll go get my auto-mechanic to perform open-heart surgery. I mean, he knows about tubes and stuff, right?

Yeah, Plants Need CO2 ranks right up there with the Heartland Institute when it comes to science. They're about as trustworthy as the guy in a trench-coat selling you real Rolexes for $20.

As Nea said, just because you work at NASA doesn't make you an expert climate scientist, or any kind of scientist.



What is the deal with the Heartland Institute, I realize they reject any kind of evidence for Climate Change, but who are the people that the Heartland Institute is composed of?

Are there any atmospheric scientists part of it at all?

I'm just curious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a nasty storm... 2 and a quarter inch hail being shown by radar

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
720 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

TXC341-375-110115-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-120411T0115Z/
MOORE TX-POTTER TX-
720 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN POTTER AND SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES...

AT 715 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MEREDITH...OR ABOUT 23 MILES NORTH
OF AMARILLO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3570 10163 3543 10163 3543 10191 3561 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 263DEG 7KT 3553 10178

$$

JOHNSON
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7603
Quoting RTSplayer:


The merger or buyout or whatever with MSNBC ruined it. Also they merged or bought out Twitter, so then we have to have some guy spend 6 of 1 to 2 minute segments per hour telling us what every know-nothing on social media is "tweeting" about, as if we care. I tuned in to watch the weather and get some alleged experts opinion, not read some idiot fan's Twitter posts.

I think this was a big part of why Dr. Lyons left TWC, because it became too political. I recall he said he wanted to forecast weather and save lives, or something, implying he must have thought TWC was no longer the best environment for that.


Still, Dr. Forbes is the best weather guy around for severe weather.

Brian Norcross doesn't have the knowledge Dr. Lyons had, but I'm glad he at least has a no-nonsense style when it comes to informing people of the storms impacts, which they certainly did last year for Irene regarding inland flooding and such.

Of course, people who don't actually watch the weather or listen to what they're told then tried to turn around an blame the forecasters for over estimating wind damage, or others blamed them for under-estimating rains...well, nobody's perfect...


Anyway, I just wish TWC would go back like they were 5 to 10 years ago. Like split from Twitter and MSNBC and go back to doing real weather forecasting and science programs.



You are correct, TWC went downhill because of the merger.


Dr. Forbes is amongst my favorite when it comes to meteorologists though, he is a weather genius, my dream was to get where he is, although I'm probably not proficient enough in mathematics to ever get there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


The merger or buyout or whatever with MSNBC ruined it. Also they merged or bought out Twitter, so then we have to have some guy spend 6 of 1 to 2 minute segments per hour telling us what every know-nothing on social media is "tweeting" about, as if we care. I tuned in to watch the weather and get some alleged experts opinion, not read some idiot fan's Twitter posts.

I think this was a big part of why Dr. Lyons left TWC, because it became too political. I recall he said he wanted to forecast weather and save lives, or something, implying he must have thought TWC was no longer the best environment for that.


Still, Dr. Forbes is the best weather guy around for severe weather.

Brian Norcross doesn't have the knowledge Dr. Lyons had, but I'm glad he at least has a no-nonsense style when it comes to informing people of the storms impacts, which they certainly did last year for Irene regarding inland flooding and such.

Of course, people who don't actually watch the weather or listen to what they're told then tried to turn around an blame the forecasters for over estimating wind damage, or others blamed them for under-estimating rains...well, nobody's perfect...


Anyway, I just wish TWC would go back like they were 5 to 10 years ago. Like split from Twitter and MSNBC and go back to doing real weather forecasting and science programs.

I was sad when Dr. Lyons left... They'll never get someone as good as him for a replacement. However he did the right thing, because TWC no longer cares about forecasting... It's all about ratings
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7603
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah. Say what you want about TWC (personally, I think they are awful), but Dr. Forbes is second to none when it comes to severe weather knowledge. Even though TWC is awful overall, their severe weather coverage is pretty good. I'd have to say the credit still goes to Forbes there.

Agreed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7817
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah. Say what you want about TWC (personally, I think they are awful), but Dr. Forbes is second to none when it comes to severe weather knowledge. Even though TWC is awful overall, their severe weather coverage is pretty good. I'd have to say the credit still goes to Forbes there.


The merger or buyout or whatever with MSNBC ruined it. Also they merged or bought out Twitter, so then we have to have some guy spend 6 of 1 to 2 minute segments per hour telling us what every know-nothing on social media is "tweeting" about, as if we care. I tuned in to watch the weather and get some alleged experts opinion, not read some idiot fan's Twitter posts.

I think this was a big part of why Dr. Lyons left TWC, because it became too political. I recall he said he wanted to forecast weather and save lives, or something, implying he must have thought TWC was no longer the best environment for that.


Still, Dr. Forbes is the best weather guy around for severe weather.

Brian Norcross doesn't have the knowledge Dr. Lyons had, but I'm glad he at least has a no-nonsense style when it comes to informing people of the storms impacts, which they certainly did last year for Irene regarding inland flooding and such.

Of course, people who don't actually watch the weather or listen to what they're told then tried to turn around an blame the forecasters for over estimating wind damage, or others blamed them for under-estimating rains...well, nobody's perfect...


Anyway, I just wish TWC would go back like they were 5 to 10 years ago. Like split from Twitter and MSNBC and go back to doing real weather forecasting and science programs.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting Neapolitan:
Further proof--as if any were needed--that many aged and retired engineers know as much about modern climate science as modern climate scientists know about flying the shuttle or the Apollo capsule; cross-discipline "expertise" should never be assumed.


I think I'll go get my auto-mechanic to perform open-heart surgery. I mean, he knows about tubes and stuff, right?

Yeah, Plants Need CO2 ranks right up there with the Heartland Institute when it comes to science. They're about as trustworthy as the guy in a trench-coat selling you real Rolexes for $20.

As Nea said, just because you work at NASA doesn't make you an expert climate scientist, or any kind of scientist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

yeah...Dr. Greg Forbes is good when it comes to severe weather


Yeah. Say what you want about TWC (personally, I think they are awful), but Dr. Forbes is second to none when it comes to severe weather knowledge. Even though TWC is awful overall, their severe weather coverage is pretty good. I'd have to say the credit still goes to Forbes there.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
2012 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook - North Carolina State University

Excerpt:


The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be on par with the long-term average over the past 62 years and below the average activities of last 20 years. Specific forecasts are described below.

1. Expected number of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) developing in the Atlantic Basin: 7-10 (1950-2012 average: 10.5)

2. Expected number of hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 4-7 (1950-2012 average: 6.2)

3. Expected number of major hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 1-3 (1950-2012 average: 2.7)

4. Expected number of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico: 2-4

5. Expected number of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: 1-2

6. Expected number of major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: 0-1

7. Number of tropical cyclones making landfall along the US Gulf coast: 1-3. There is a 84% chance at least one tropical cyclone will strike the US Gulf Coast, which reduces to 51% for a hurricane and 24% for a major hurricane.

8. There is a 66% chance at least one tropical cyclone will strike the US Southeast coast. This probability reduces to about 32% for a hurricane, and approximately 12% for a major hurricane.

9. There is a 32% chance at least one tropical cyclone will make landfall along the US Northeast coast. The chance reduces to about 12% for that storm to be a hurricane. The chance for a major hurricane to make landfall in the Northeast US coast is historically small, and is essentially unpredictable due to insufficient data sample.


Another firm that forecasts an average season. What I see interesting is that they follow ENSO by looking only at Nino 1+2 and not Nino 3.4. I wonder why?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yah...

CARIFTA was actually quite fun this year. I'm looking forward to actually attending next year, as it seems we will [finally] be able to host the games again.

You know, in the old days, Team Bahamas used to be the strongest challenge to JA... hopefully those days will live again.

you are still strong I think you guys got 38+ medals that is very good I must say ...you guys did pretty well in the sprints too
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7817
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


but for severe weather events, it rules.
For the april 14-16 event, i spent 40 minutes in Costco watching it.
Superb coverage, info, pictures, etc, plus they cover all viewing areas.
Other than that i do not watch it.

yeah...Dr. Greg Forbes is good when it comes to severe weather
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7817
Quoting nigel20:

you know that wasn't our strongest team...lol
we'll see about that
Yah...

CARIFTA was actually quite fun this year. I'm looking forward to actually attending next year, as it seems we will [finally] be able to host the games again.

You know, in the old days, Team Bahamas used to be the strongest challenge to JA... hopefully those days will live again.
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Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral
Issued on Tuesday 10 April | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Following the demise of the 2011–12 La Niña, the state of ENSO across the tropical Pacific remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that, although the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, a neutral ENSO state will persist into the southern hemisphere winter. Historically, about 70% of the time neutral or El Niño conditions have developed in the year following a 2-year La Niña event.
The main signs of ENSO, including trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and ocean temperatures, have all returned to near-normal levels. The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010, while the equatorial Pacific has warmed by about 0.2 to 0.4 °C during the past fortnight.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has limited influence on Australian rainfall from December through to April. Neutral IOD conditions are forecast for the southern hemisphere winter.
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2012 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook - North Carolina State University

Excerpt:


The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be on par with the long-term average over the past 62 years and below the average activities of last 20 years. Specific forecasts are described below.

1. Expected number of tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes) developing in the Atlantic Basin: 7-10 (1950-2012 average: 10.5)

2. Expected number of hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 4-7 (1950-2012 average: 6.2)

3. Expected number of major hurricanes developing in the Atlantic basin: 1-3 (1950-2012 average: 2.7)

4. Expected number of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico: 2-4

5. Expected number of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: 1-2

6. Expected number of major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: 0-1

7. Number of tropical cyclones making landfall along the US Gulf coast: 1-3. There is a 84% chance at least one tropical cyclone will strike the US Gulf Coast, which reduces to 51% for a hurricane and 24% for a major hurricane.

8. There is a 66% chance at least one tropical cyclone will strike the US Southeast coast. This probability reduces to about 32% for a hurricane, and approximately 12% for a major hurricane.

9. There is a 32% chance at least one tropical cyclone will make landfall along the US Northeast coast. The chance reduces to about 12% for that storm to be a hurricane. The chance for a major hurricane to make landfall in the Northeast US coast is historically small, and is essentially unpredictable due to insufficient data sample.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.