March 2012: warmest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on April 10, 2012

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Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.



Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.



Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tomorrow.

Eek..













Do you need a membership on that unidata site to get the GEMPAK?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Brand new tornado warning in NW Texas

Correction: NE
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33601
Q1 Potter TX 70 dBZ 29,000 ft. 54 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 4 knots W (275)


I think this is the strongest warned cell at the moment.

It's also a very, very slow mover, so um...2.75in max hail size and only moving 4knots could really dump on somebody.

Could get some interesting youtube videos out of this if somebody there has a camera.
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A tornado warning will likely be issued on this storm at any minute.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33601
810. txjac
3000 dolphins found dead along Peru coastline.

What's wrong with me? I cant read about this as I love all animals ...however murder stories and autopsies dont bother me ...

Poor little dolphins
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

From the fact that California sits on one of the most seismically active regions in the world which has produced significant earthquakes in the past but has not produced one in decades meaning we are well overdue
Decades might be overdoing it a little bit.....Date January 17, 1994
Origin time 04:31 PST (12:30 UTC)
Magnitude 6.7 Mw
Depth 19.0 km (11.8 mi)
Epicenter 34.207°N 118.535°WCoordinates: 34.207°N 118.535°W
Countries or regions United States (Southern California)
Max. intensity IX - Violent
Peak acceleration 1.7g
Casualties 57 killed
more than 8,700 injured...........Wiki.............The Northridge earthquake was an earthquake that occurred on January 17, 1994, at 04:31 Pacific Standard Time in Reseda, a neighborhood in Los Angeles, California, lasting for about 10–20 seconds.[1] The earthquake had a "strong" moment magnitude of 6.7, but the ground acceleration was one of the highest ever instrumentally recorded in an urban area in North America,[2] measuring 1.7 g (16.7 m/s2)[3] with strong ground motion felt as far away as Las Vegas, Nevada, over 270 miles (435 km) from the epicenter. The death toll came to a total of 57 people, and there were over 8,700 injured. In addition, the earthquake caused an estimated $20 billion in damage, making it one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.[4]The earthquake struck in the San Fernando Valley about 20 miles (31 km) northwest of downtown Los Angeles near the community of Northridge. The actual epicenter of the quake was in Reseda, near the intersection of Reseda Boulevard and Strathern Street. However, it took several days to pinpoint the epicenter with accuracy, and in the meantime the media had already dubbed it "The Northridge Earthquake." The name stuck, in part due to the extensive damage and loss of life in Northridge. The National Geophysical Data Center places the hypocenter's geographical coordinates at 34°12′47″N 118°32′13″W and a depth of 17 km (10.56 mi). Despite the area's proximity to the San Andreas Fault, the Northridge quake did not occur along this fault, but rather on the previously undiscovered Northridge blind thrust fault (also known as the Pico thrust fault).[5]
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Brand new tornado warning in NW Texas
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 85 Comments: 8150
Tomorrow.

Eek..









Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33601
Tangipahoa LA 63 dBZ 37,000 ft. 58 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in.

That's over central Tangi now, headed for st. Tammany.


Now that could be destructive, probably averaging inch size hail.

This could break your windshield or give you a really good ding in the head, if you get hit by one of the big ones.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This and a storm in S texas are rotating:


Pretty good hook there.
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This storm may need a tornado warning soon...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

TXC389-112100-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-120411T2100Z/
REEVES TX-
315 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY...

AT 313 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER BALMORHEA...OR ABOUT
31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PECOS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...SARAGOSA
AND VERHALEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY... A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP
. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3120 10351 3098 10339 3082 10365 3095 10386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 267DEG 17KT 3102 10372

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 85 Comments: 8150
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This and a storm in S texas are rotating:
been watching this one closely.. curious if it will hold organization
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This and a storm in S texas are rotating:
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3000 dolphins found dead along Peru coastline.

From: treehugger.com

Along just one stretch of coastline in Peru, more than 3,000 dead dolphins have washed ashore in just the last 3 months, and the disturbing trend may only be escalating. With the latest discovery of 481 lifeless dolphins there in recent days, residents have begun to demand an explanation for the mysterious mass deaths -- and as far as enlisted experts can tell, offshore oil exploration in the region is the most likely culprit.

According to a report from Peru 21, local fishermen in Lambayeque, north Peru, were first to notice the inexplicable rise in dead dolphin appearing on shore -- averaging roughly 30 per day. While such mass orca strandings are not entirely uncommon, or fully understood, Peruvian biologist Carlos Yaipen of the Scientific Organization for Conservation of Aquatic Animals says activity from petroleum companies in the nearby waters is to blame in this instance.

Yaipen believes that a controversial technique for detecting oil beneath the seabed, using sonar or acoustic sensing, is leading the death of marine life en masse.

"The oil companies use different frequencies of acoustic waves and the effects produced by these bubbles are not plainly visible, but they generate effects later in the animals. That can cause death by acoustic impact, not only in dolphins, but also in marine seals and whales."

In 2003, scientists from the Zoological Society of London discovered that underwater sonar can lead to the formation of microscopic bubbles of nitrogen in the bloodstream and vital organs of aquatic mammals, afflicting the animals with a lethal condition commonly known as the Bends. Additionally, low-range acoustic sensors are suspected to cause disorientation and internal bleeding to exposed wildlife.

As of this writing, Peruvian authorities have yet to identify the company whose activities may be leading to this grim toll on native marine life. According to Offshore Magazine, a trade publication of petroleum news, at least one entity, Houston-based oil company BPZ Energy, has been actively surveying the seabed along the coast of Peru since the beginning of the year.
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The watch has a moderate risk of everything, except a low risk of ef-2+ tornadoes
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Doom?


What's the doomcon at? 345/10?
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Here's another gem from the Amazon erotica/climate science category. I can't imagine where the author got the idea for this one.

Exposure by Rex J. Fleming

"Product Description

"EXPOSURE is a fast paced thriller where the hero must outwit criminal and terrorist elements trying to stop him from delivering his final testimony to expose the global warming fraud.

"A secular debate will be the final battlefield to maintain the fossil fuel warming theory. The battle will be hard fought as there is much at stake. There has been a 40-year buildup of hype on the issue with many constituents benefitting [sic] professionally and/or financially from the false theory. High drama builds as the debate draws near, and the lives of the hero and his wife are at stake."
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SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLAYTON NEW MEXICO TO 80 MILES EAST OF BORGER TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
INTO SOUTHEAST CO. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...HART
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's severe thunderstorms with hail and funnel clouds in California. You know what this means for the plains (typically)?

Doom?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 85 Comments: 8150
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's severe thunderstorms with hail and funnel clouds in California. You know what this means for the plains (typically)?


Lots of energy to fuel tornadoes. Models seem to be showing more of an open trough now as opposed to a cut off feature which is key imo.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLAYTON NEW MEXICO TO 80 MILES EAST OF BORGER TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
INTO SOUTHEAST CO. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES...AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...HART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33601
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There's severe thunderstorms with hail and funnel clouds in California. You know what this means for the plains (typically)?


Wow! That's incredible this will get bad!

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Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't really mind, lol.

We don't see quarter sized hail right here very often. I'm 31 and only seen it 3 other times, about once per decade, adn this was the weakest incident because it was only a few stray stones to quarter size.

I've seen sustained quarter size two times in my life that I'm sure of, one in the late 1980's on this same piece of land, and one in 1991 while I was at school.


My neighbors recently had their roof replaced, and the guy Sao it was the worst hail damage he's ever seen and it was only 12 years old, makes me think we get hail really often we just do not notice..

But who actually knowsK
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Quoting RitaEvac:


interesting storm south of Henderson. could be a wall cloud
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Quoting Patrap:
A subject as important as Climate Change is a easy sell,and thus a High Category of information,for many.
in the end we shall realize its was something that shouldn't of been mess with to begin with
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There's severe thunderstorms with hail and funnel clouds in California. You know what this means for the plains (typically)?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33601
Quoting weatherh98:


I don't know, another t storm just developed north of you.


I don't really mind, lol.

We don't see quarter sized hail right here very often. I'm 31 and only seen it 3 other times, about once per decade, adn this was the weakest incident because it was only a few stray stones to quarter size.

I've seen sustained quarter size two times in my life that I'm sure of, one in the late 1980's on this same piece of land, and one in 1991 while I was at school.

50 to 60mph wind and quarter size hail is no biggy. It's fun.

I mean, compared to the "unofficial" tornado in 2002 and then Katrina, that wasn't really noteworthy at all.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is showing an April Sub-Tropical Storm on the 17th. Brings it down to 1001 mb, looks similar to Sean in structure. GFS is showing the same system by 144 hours as well. Worth watching, look for consistency..
IIRC, this has been showing of and on for the last week or so. Even CMC longrange had it at one point, I think, though I'm not sure the timing was the same.

Would be quite interesting if it does eventuate, as it would lend support to our idea that early season conditions might be more conducive than average to TC formation.

Though I also have to admit that April formations in previous seasons have not automatically led to increaces in May and June formation...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is showing an April Sub-Tropical Storm on the 17th. Brings it down to 1001 mb, looks similar to Sean in structure. GFS is showing the same system by 144 hours as well. Worth watching, look for consistency..


It's been consistantly on the models since last Sunday. I think the models are developing this area of convection east of the Bahamas down the road.

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Quoting RTSplayer:
Another strong looking storm refiring back north in the middle of Tangi and north side of Livingston Parish.

This might go too far east to hit me though.

Plus I figure the previous one used up a lot of energy so maybe it's not as strong, but we'll see.

Probably goes a bit farther east this time, unless there's significant back-building.


I don't know, another t storm just developed north of you.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF is showing an April Sub-Tropical Storm on the 17th. Brings it down to 1001 mb, looks similar to Sean in structure. GFS is showing the same system by 144 hours as well. Worth watching, look for consistency..


The models have been picking up on them for a while.
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Another strong looking storm refiring back north in the middle of Tangi and north side of Livingston Parish.

This might go too far east to hit me though.

Plus I figure the previous one used up a lot of energy so maybe it's not as strong, but we'll see.

Probably goes a bit farther east this time, unless there's significant back-building.
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Starting at 8:38:37amGMT 11April2012
Magnitude8.6earthquake: ~272miles(437kilometres)SouthWest of BandaAceh,Indonesia
and ~834miles(1340kilometres)EastSouthEast of Panama,SriLanka
Magnitude8.2earthquake: ~385miles(620kilometres)SouthWest of BandaAceh,Indonesia
and ~842miles(1355kilometres)EastSouthEast of Panama,SriLanka

And 26 earthquakes of magnitudes5.0thru6.0 at 1.281n91.731e, 2.510n90.316e, 2.499n90.365e, 2.646n90.084e, 2.833n92.476e, 1.072n91.943e, 0.773n92.452e, 0.743n92.865e, 0.989n91.942e, 2.929n89.534e, 1.385n92.639e, 3.136n92.775e, 2.528n92.602e, 2.296n90.342e, 2.199n93.623e, 1.493n90.889e, 1.147n92.158e, 2.569n92.296e, 2.287n92.385e, 1.504n90.894e, 1.336n91.841e, 2.969n90.062e, 2.987n92.249e, 3.426n92.860e, 2.496n92.712e, 1.202n92.090e
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
ECMWF is showing an April Sub-Tropical Storm on the 17th. Brings it down to 1001 mb, looks similar to Sean in structure. GFS is showing the same system by 144 hours as well. Worth watching, look for consistency..
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Quoting RTSplayer:
thunderstorm is over Lake Maurepas right now.

It may be stronger than when it passed me, because radar says 77dbz.


Looks like max VIL was temporarily somewhere between 65 and 75 near Manchac.

Looks to be headed for Kenner area next.


I'm thinking more Norco....
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Rotation on storm in TX Panhandle
and,
We're about due for a California tornado right?

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
CAC019-031-107-112045-
/O.NEW.KHNX.SV.W.0001.120411T2002Z-120411T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
102 PM PDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD CA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL FRESNO COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
NORTHEASTERN KINGS COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HANFORD...
WEST CENTRAL TULARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 145 PM PDT.

* AT 1254 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HANFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LEMOORE BY 110 PM PDT...
HANFORD BY 120 PM PDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 11937 3624 11944 3634 12000 3655 11999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 284DEG 37KT 3638 11970

$$



SANGER
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Using GEMPAK, yes.



Okay ill look into it, most of the time I do the blog on my phone so I mostly can't do it but where do u get it?
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thunderstorm is over Lake Maurepas right now.

It may be stronger than when it passed me, because radar says 77dbz.


Looks like max VIL was temporarily somewhere between 65 and 75 near Manchac.

Looks to be headed for Kenner area next.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Good afternoon, did you make that map?

Using GEMPAK, yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33601
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
250 PM CDT WED APR 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HENDERSON...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HENDERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MINDEN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 9460 3185 9486 3211 9498 3219 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 317DEG 10KT 3207 9490

$$
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The Hammond PWS is probably just a badly positioned thermometer. Above a reflective surface, or something that retains heat. There are a few sites near my house that have the same issues. There is also a site that is well positioned for temps... but terribly positioned for wind or rain. I have a GREAT spot to put one (in the open, well exposed to wind and rain, not above a reflective surface), but I haven't been able to talk the boss (my wife) into getting a PWS.
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This title looks interesting. Odd that a used copy retails for more than a new one. The plot synopsis reminds me of a Jimmy Stewart movie.

Jezebels of the Earth by Wandering Meadowlark


"Product Description

"After being fired from her university job for her environmental activism, a mother and her daughter move to a small town in Montana, hoping to find peace and quiet in a house they recently inherited from a long lost aunt. To their dismay, they discover that their new home is a "house of ill repute." To put it mildly, this is not entirely a help in their efforts to improve their battered reputations.

"Located directly across the street from the local church, it would also seem to be inopportunely located. However, their new business partner, the madam who runs it, wouldn't have it any other way. She explains that the minister across the street gives them free advertising every Sunday. It's a self-sufficient economy, she insists: They provide the sin; the minister provides the salvation. Together, they circulate enough money to keep the tiny local economy afloat.

"The women quickly find themselves involved in a longstanding conflict with a powerful rancher. Nicknamed by his detractors Kingdom Come, he is a state senator and the head of a secretive religious group called the Priesthood. Rumor has it, he murdered his wife for adultery. With his daughter in rebellion, environmentalists fighting a coal mine he wants, and the Priesthood's many secrets to protect, the last thing he needs is for the two women to move in.

"Named Best of 2011 by Kirkus Review, Jezebels of the Earth is a novel about power, sex, and the climate crisis."
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link

live web cam kat iceland


Is she rumbling again? Seems like she has been since Eyjafjallajokull burped, earthquake speaking that is. If she does go, there will be a wall of water emptying into the ocean.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm looking at the GFS and NAM for tomorrow, and it appears we could have a decent tornado day, including the possibility of a large tornado or two.

I'd raise the TOR:CON to at least 7.

We may see a Moderate risk tomorrow for tornadoes alone.

I'll give a 10% hatched right now, but a 15% tornado probability may be needed.



Good afternoon, did you make that map?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm looking at the GFS and NAM for tomorrow, and it appears we could have a decent tornado day, including the possibility of a large tornado or two.

I'd raise the TOR:CON to at least 7.

We may see a Moderate risk tomorrow for tornadoes alone.

I'll give a 10% hatched right now, but a 15% tornado probability may be needed.



I say 10% at best, this 50 kts of shear doesnt earn anything higher.

But according to Dr. Forbes, you would be right with a 15%:
2% SPC prob = TORCON of 1 (or about 8% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
5% SPC prob = TORCON of 2 (or about 19% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
15% SPC prob = TORCON of 5 (or about 48% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
30% SPC prob = TORCON of 8 (or about 76% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
45% SPC prob = TORCON of 9 (or about 91% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)
60% SPC prob = TORCON of 10 (or about 97% chance of a tornado within 50 miles)

Naturally, you could use these to create HAILCON or WINDCON too. ;)
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HRRR shows a broken line of rain forming across OK and TX, possibly split into two close lines in N TX and OK.

Nothing too ominous though.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


I do know some weird local phenomenon happens around here sometimes.

A dry line can form over Tangipahoa parish, even between Livingston and Hammond, and they can be getting flooded in Hammond and not a drop over here by the parish border.


Other freaky stuff like that happens all the time.

I don't know if it's something to do with the lakes, or of the interstates and highways generate some sort of heat island affect that changes humidity, etc.

It just happens more than what seems to make sense.


The way mandeville is, sometimes a storm will be moving from west to east and it will disapate over the lake. Im like your kiddin, they got an inch and we get .02
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Quoting Patrap:
A subject as important as Climate Change is a easy sell,and thus a High Category of information,for many.
It's on the equivalent of the banned books... i.e. high interest off limits topics...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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