March 2012: warmest in U.S. history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on April 10, 2012

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Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)


Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.



Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.



Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."

Jeff Masters

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1264. hydrus
3:28 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1099. 1911maker 12:40 AM GMT on April 12, 2012 +1
Quoting Patrap:
Three Friday the 13ths, 13 weeks apart, a rarity




Thanks, and from the link

It's hard not to feel something about Friday the 13th, Fernsler says. "I find that 95% of people in the world are superstitious about something, and the other 5% are liars," he said.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: February 25, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 208


its the 2012 luck of the draw
Charley hit us on Friday the 13th.. And I dont mind saying that I am superstitious about certain things.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
1263. MAweatherboy1
1:57 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
New Blog
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
1262. RitaEvac
1:53 PM GMT on April 12, 2012








Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
1261. DavidHOUTX
1:49 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
1260. RitaEvac
1:48 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Our drought here in Illinois continues to intensify as every system that crosses the Mississippi goes poof or passes us to the south and east.

I'm curious to see how this next system taking shape over TX and OK will do. I've seen some pretty incredible dust devils last 3 or 4 days on my way home from work, one of which was about 50 yards wide and a couple hundred feet in height. I need to take a picture today, but the topsoil is actually drifting off the fields and into the ditches, almost like snow around here.



This shows just how ridiculously dry its been here the last few days.






Just wait till you get in the D3 Extreme category
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
1259. Minnemike
1:41 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SPC is sticking with slight risk for today

got some buddies heading down to chase today-sunday; last night they were citing lower moisture levels than originally modeled, moving their target further south. the environment will certainly have strong instability though, i expect they'll have good chances!
a lot of buzz about saturday already having moderate risk!!
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
1258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:40 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting Xandra:
Amarillo Hail Storm.


how big of an event will it take
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1257. MontanaZephyr
1:25 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
M5.3 - Iwaki, Japan
2012-04-12 11:19:59 UTC


Already had seven Magnitude 5.0 earthquakes today, including a 6.9 in Mexico.


Supposedly, the next full moon is to occur very close to perigee. (May 5....Heard that on the radio, so, with a grain of salt, eh...?) The thinking is that the moon generates tides in the magma as well as the seas and air above it, shifting the weight of all three as the earth revolves, and setting off points of tension that are near the breaking point.

Moon Perigees:http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc. html
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 432
1256. ILwthrfan
1:25 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Our drought here in Illinois continues to intensify as every system that crosses the Mississippi goes poof or passes us to the south and east.

I'm curious to see how this next system taking shape over TX and OK will do. I've seen some pretty incredible dust devils last 3 or 4 days on my way home from work, one of which was about 50 yards wide and a couple hundred feet in height. I need to take a picture today, but the topsoil is actually drifting off the fields and into the ditches, almost like snow around here.



This shows just how ridiculously dry its been here the last few days.




Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
1255. ILwthrfan
1:13 PM GMT on April 12, 2012




TCHP has really increased in the NW Caribbean this week.


Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
1254. MAweatherboy1
1:07 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
SPC is sticking with slight risk for today

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
1253. Barefootontherocks
1:05 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
1241. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:59 AM GMT on April 12, 2012

Thanks for posting that Day 3 Convective Outlook. Out here in the middle, looks like we're gonna need to hold onto our roof trusses and our dog Toto, too.

Just a tip for you and others who post Convective Outlook graphics from SPC. If you click the "convective outlooks" link on the left of SPC main page (or top of main page map), go to the bottom of page and change the date to the current day's date, and then view the graphics and copy their location, graphics will have an archived web address and will not change when a new day 3 or day 1 or whatever is issued. This does not work for day 4-8 but does for the others.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 17484
1252. RTSplayer
12:55 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Hmmm...

Models seem to disagree on the intensity of the "outbreak".

Euro has low as a relatively large area "below 990mb" now for the lowest frame in the run, which I think it did the whole time.


The Canadian and GFS seem to have it as a 994mb or lower only in a very tight core.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
1251. Tropicsweatherpr
12:18 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Entire ring of fire area was active the last 24 hours.


Good morning. Also,on the Mona Channel,a 3.6.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13292
1250. Tropicsweatherpr
12:16 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting BahaHurican:
Entire ring of fire area was active the last 24 hours.


Good morning. Also,on the Mona Channel,a 3.6.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13292
1249. MAweatherboy1
12:13 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Alberto in the making?

I personally don't see it happenning, but it will be interesting to watch
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
1248. Tropicsweatherpr
12:07 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile...



Alberto in the making?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13292
1247. Hernando44
12:06 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
There have been thirty (30) earthquakes of 5.0 magnitude or greater around the world in the last 24 hours. 8:00am yesterday to 8:00am this morning. Have a great day!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
1246. BahaHurican
12:05 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting spathy:
Holy earthquake swarm batman!
WTH is going on. Mexico,Baja,Oregon,Utah,and N Atlantic?

2012?
Entire ring of fire area was active the last 24 hours.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20702
1245. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:02 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
M5.3 - Iwaki, Japan
2012-04-12 11:19:59 UTC


Already had seven Magnitude 5.0 earthquakes today, including a 6.9 in Mexico.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1244. GeorgiaStormz
12:02 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
the nam is 20+ kts of shear stronger than the gfs,
moderate will be issued at 9/8 central i think
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
1243. BahaHurican
12:01 PM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting Xandra:
Amarillo Hail Storm.


Whoa.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20702
1241. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:59 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Saturday's wording would make me very worried if I lived in the Moderate risk area. Oklahoma City, Norman, and Wichita are all in the bullseye of what is likely to be a very major outbreak of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes, with multiple long-tracked and violent tornadoes possible.





DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN
KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.

...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..PETERS.. 04/12/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1240. Xandra
11:56 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Amarillo Hail Storm.


Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1225
1239. Neapolitan
11:51 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting percylives:
A Prediction.

If we have a picture like the lead one in this blog entry that is titled, "August 2012 Statewide Ranks", we'll begin to get some traction concerning global warming in the general US media.

Of course, that will be after one of the worst months of general weather misery in US history.
I doubt it. The real media would pick up on it, perhaps, but pretend media (Fox, etc.) would ignore it, and even the real media that would show it would be misled into maintaining a false balance: "97% of climatologists agree that August's massive and unprecedented heat wave was made far worse by the rapid climate change that's taking place. However, the CEO of ExxonMobil says it wasn't. With such confusion, it's obvious the jury is still out. How can we ever really know the truth amid such uncertainty?"

:-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13269
1238. biff4ugo
11:45 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Wow Pat!

That granular flow was all hail stones? It looked like a mud flow. The stable sides and sloshing was amazing.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1496
1237. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:39 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Meanwhile...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1236. MAweatherboy1
11:38 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The latest NAM model gave in even more favorable for tornadoes for this afternoon...I seriously don't know why the SPC would keep this a Slight without even a mention of upgrading. But then again, I like the later crew more than the morning crew, they never really do outstanding.


We will likely see an upgrade to Moderate Risk for today at the next Day 1 Outlook, in an hour and a half or so
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
1235. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:31 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
The latest NAM model gave in even more favorable for tornadoes for this afternoon...I seriously don't know why the SPC would keep this a Slight without even a mention of upgrading. But then again, I like the later crew more than the morning crew, they never really do outstanding.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1234. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:28 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's gonna be a little rough in the plains today... Maybe even more on Saturday...


I don't know what they're seeing preventing today from being a Moderate risk. They need to upgrade!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1233. percylives
11:15 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
A Prediction.

If we have a picture like the lead one in this blog entry that is titled, "August 2012 Statewide Ranks", we'll begin to get some traction concerning global warming in the general US media.

Of course, that will be after one of the worst months of general weather misery in US history.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
1232. aspectre
11:12 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
7:06:01amGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude6.2quake at 28.841n113.072w & 10.1kilometres(6.3miles)depth
7:15:49amGMT 12Apr2012 magnitude6.9quake at 28.790n113.142w & 10.3kilometres(6.4miles)depth
The 6.9quake struck ~6miles(9kilometres)SouthWest of the 6.2quake.

The 6.2quake struck in the Sea of Cortez ~69miles(111kilometres)East of BahiaKino,Mexico
The 6.9quake struck in the Sea of Cortez ~73miles(118kilometres)East of BahiaKino.
The intervening island is IslaTiburon, an uninhabited nature reserve
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1231. hurricanehunter27
10:51 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Wow Saturday already has a moderate risk. I think there is a decent chance of a high risk event that day. Should be fun to watch but everyone stay safe!

THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
1230. MAweatherboy1
10:25 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all continue to support a sub-tropical storm developing by next Wednesday.

We may have something here, watch for consistency.

The Euro turns this into a pretty sizeable storm, at least for April... It has it peaking at 1000 mb
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
1229. MAweatherboy1
10:19 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
It's gonna be a little rough in the plains today... Maybe even more on Saturday...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
1228. CybrTeddy
10:08 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all continue to support a sub-tropical storm developing by next Wednesday.

We may have something here, watch for consistency.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
1227. LargoFl
9:10 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
All the way down into Georgia now.................................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

GAZ006-008-009-121400-
/O.CON.KFFC.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120412T1400Z/
FANNIN-UNION-TOWNS-
315 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY THREATEN OR KILL TENDER
SPRING GROWTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN THE
WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33348
1226. Ameister12
7:41 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
The SPC has already issued a moderate risk for Saturday!

SPC AC 120734

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT THU APR 12 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO/SWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
D3/SAT...WITH A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
MIDLEVEL WIND EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM THROUGH OK/KS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING D2/FRI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH DURING ON SAT...REACHING CO/NM BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AN ATTENDANT 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET WILL EMERGE INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO KS SAT NIGHT...WITH 60-80 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB. A LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
THROUGH SRN NEB TO SRN IA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ON SAT. A DRY LINE WILL MOVE EWD SOME BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR ERN NEB SSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
KS TO FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN
KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY
LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING
FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.


...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL/SWRN-SRN WI...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH D3
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AS A WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NNEWD SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER..A FEW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT AND INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION/TSTMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WARM FRONT AND ALSO WWD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE WARM
FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..PETERS.. 04/12/2012
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
1225. sunlinepr
6:32 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
San Francisco Bay Area milk sample has highest amount of Cesium-137 since last June — Almost double EPA’s maximum contaminant level

Title: UCB Milk Sampling Results
Source: UCBDepartment of Nuclear Engineering
Date: April 9, 2012

4/9/2012 (5:45pm): Three recent milk test results have been posted on the milk sample page with “best by” dates of 3/12, 4/9, and 4/16. Very low levels of Cs-134 and Cs-137 were detected in the samples — the amounts are so small that it would require drinking over tens of thousands of liters of milk to receive the small dose that one receives from a cross-country airplane flight. These isotopes can still be detected in milk because they have long half-lives (2 years and 30 years, respectively) and therefore trace amounts will remain in the grass and hay that the cows feed on.

Best Buy Date of 04/09/2012:

Cs-134 @ 0.068 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.141 Bq/L
Total Cs = 0.209 Bq/L or 5.67 pCi/L (27.1 picocuries = 1 becquerel)

Best Buy Date of 04/16/2012:

Cs-134 @ 0.073 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.079 Bq/L
Total Cs = 0.152 Bq/L or 4.12 pCi/L

The EPA Maximum Contaminant Level for radioactive cesium in milk is 3 picocuries/L:

“EPA lumps these gamma and beta emitters together under one collective MCL [Maximum Contaminant Level], so if you’re seeing cesium-137 in your milk or water, the MCL is 3.0 picocuries per liter; if you’re seeing iodine-131, the MCL is 3.0; if you’re seeing cesium-137 and iodine-131, the MCL is still 3.0.” -Forbes.com

These are the highest cesium-137 levels detected by UCB since last June (Far right column is Cs-137)

DEPT NUCLEAR ENGINEERING BERKELEY CA.


http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/UCBAirSampling/MilkSa mpling
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
1224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:10 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:03 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:03 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:02 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1220. LargoFl
5:44 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1045 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-121000-
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.W.0009.120412T0600Z-120412T1300Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0006.120413T0600Z-120413T1300Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HIGHTOWN...
MONTEREY...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
1045 PM EDT WED APR 11 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE UNPROTECTED VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33348
1219. LargoFl
5:39 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Kilauea Alert Level=WATCH. Aviation Color Code=ORANGE. As of Apr 11, 2012, 07:42 HST
Back-to-back DI events synced w/ smt lava lake rise/fall; active flows SE of Pu`u `O`o crater on pali and coastal plain; no ocean entry; gas emissions elevated.
(Change to current status occurred on Mar 9, 2011 19:45 HST from Alert Level WARNING and Aviation Color Code RED )
For more information see http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/archiveupdate.p hp?noticeid=7184
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33348
1218. LargoFl
5:36 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
I was scanning the quake prediction homepage and found this..i think this is california..................2.5 earthquake possible in Petrolia, Ferndale.
WARNING; A 6.0+ earthquake is "possible" in the Indio, Borrego Springs, Ocotillo area April 11 to April 14. Please make sure you have extra food, gas, water and emergency plans ready.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33348
1217. Patrap
5:34 AM GMT on April 12, 2012


M2.9 - Volcano, Hawaii
2012-04-12 05:09:24 UTC
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
1216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:22 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
we will see may just be a ghost
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1215. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:07 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
this is 96 hrs out break away starts

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1214. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:03 AM GMT on April 12, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


As per the GFS, the upper flow looks to become more amplified near the 72 hour time frame, and the actual low begins to manifest a day later, to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.
close to the triple nickel 55.5 degrees west longitude
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.