CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

Share this Blog
38
+

Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 916 - 866

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Easter everybody!

I have never seen a Day 7 before...that isn't to say the SPC has never issued one, but I have never seen one. Strong wording on both the Day 5 and the Day 7.

Major outbreak of Severe Weather and Tornadoes becoming likely.




I was googling to find one, and i thought i had it, and then i saw it was just one of your fake maps.
oops. lol
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Quoting hcubed:


Quick question - if the permafrost thawed 50 million years ago, releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane (which led to more warming), what event allowed it to get cold enough to refreeze the carbon dioxide and methane to re-create the current levels of permafrost?

With that much GHG in the atmosphere, we should have been as warm as Venus. There should be NO ice caps or glaciers today.


Carbon dioxide is naturally sequestered by plants and oceans. And also has a half-life of its own. So it seems like it would naturally reduce over time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Easter everybody!

I have never seen a Day 7 before...that isn't to say the SPC has never issued one, but I have never seen one. Strong wording on both the Day 5 and the Day 7.

Major outbreak of Severe Weather and Tornadoes becoming likely.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32267
Happy Easter Folks!!..be careful swimming on the east coast if you plan on going to the beach today..dangerous rip currents...................................HAZARDO US WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-082200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS.

IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO THE SHORE UNTIL THE
CURRENT WEAKENS THEN SWIM BACK TO SHORE. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH
PATROL ON THE LATEST SURF CONDITIONS WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH AND
ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
OCEAN SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED EVEN THOUGH WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST NEAR
INLETS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT A FEW HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REINFORCED INTO MID WEEK DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER DANGER OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

LASCODY/WEITLICH
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Happy Easter to all.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
911. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 8 2012
=====================================

Tropical Depression Near Midway Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 18.2N 178.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting percylives:
1) It is not humanity that is broken and driving the planet into uninhabitable conditions, just our culture. We do not have to change the genes just the memes to fix it.


I fail to see how our culture will change anytime soon. Pretty much all non-European thoughts have been destroyed in the age of colonialism. For good reason to, as western culture is the most efficient overall (at least in the past few centuries). I highly doubt that the industrial revolution could've happened in China or the Middle East.

Now, of course this culture has its downsides, but is there anything else that can replace it? The most dominant culture will always prevail, and European colonialism has secured Western society in pretty much every nation. You don't want to look weak against your neighbours, so you have to adopt a western society etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
High Temp: 4
Low Temp: 12
Low Max Temp: 7
High Min Temp: 3


Yesterday actually had more cold records than hot, a rare day indeed for the past year worth of time.

The past week still has a ratio of nearly 13 to 1 hot vs cold, but I think that will not be the case for the next several days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Easter, everyone.

Two things to consider if "down in the dumps" because of the present world situation.

1) It is not humanity that is broken and driving the planet into uninhabitable conditions, just our culture. We do not have to change the genes just the memes to fix it.

2) There are groups such as P2P, Bitcoin, and Open Source Manufacturing, which are already working on the structure of the new, more sustainable and cooperative world. The memes are already being changed.

There is much to be thankful for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy easter everyone!

I got stuck with a bad case of the flu so no happiness for me, probably because of my extreme atheism. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Guysgal:
Well I knew that AGW was causing more pollen but never considered a rise in rabies Link


Your link appears to be broken.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
looks like a harsh summer again


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Easter to you pottery. How is the weather over there on this day? Here is gorgeous with a bright sun,blue sky with a few small clouds and temperature of 81F.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
HAPPY EASTER EGGHEADS !
Have a Chocolatey one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Easter...

It's a great looking day outside!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting sunlinepr:


USGS issues announcement about polar bears with oozing sores, hair loss in Alaska Govt testing for radiation 3 of 4 captured yesterday affected Similar symptoms as recent mystery seal deaths (PHOTO & AUDIO)

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3162



This site seems to be pretty good for news updates about Fukushima:
http://enenews.com/category/japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Location Stage Condition
Apalachicola River
Chattahoochee - Gauge CHAF1 -9999.00 ft Old Data
Woodruff Dam (Usace) - Gauge WDRF1 44.62 ft Normal

Chattahoochee River
George W. Andrews L&D (Usace) - Gauge COLA1 76.76 ft Normal
W.F. George L&D (Usace) - Gauge FOGG1 105.86 ft Normal

Chipola River
Altha - Gauge ALTF1 9.40 ft Normal
Marianna - Gauge MALF1 6.97 ft Normal

Choctawhatchee River
Bellwood - Gauge BELA1 4.82 ft Normal
Caryville - Gauge CARF1 5.44 ft Normal
Geneva - Gauge GNVA1 3.76 ft Normal
Newton - Gauge NEWA1 4.22 ft Normal
Pittman - Gauge PITF1 9.92 ft Normal

Holmes Creek
Vernon - Gauge VRNF1 10.99 ft Normal

Pea River
Ariton - Gauge ARTA1 3.28 ft Normal
Elba - Gauge ELBA1 7.59 ft Normal
Samson - Gauge SSNA1 6.98 ft Normal

Spring Creek
Iron City - Gauge IRCG1 4.21 ft Normal
Reynoldsville - Gauge REYG1 76.86 ft Normal

all the rivers are at normal levels.

Yet the Drought monitor says this area is in extreme drought!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just ignore and report the troll (swampdooogggg, in case you're interested in his Easter inanity). Thanks!
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
Happy Easter to everyone here and their whole family.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Gorgeous day on tap here in the Mid-south, perfect for BBQs, egg rolling and rabbit hunting!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just want to take a brief moment to thank Team RUBICON in their volunteer efforts for the recent tornado's in the USA, Portlight, and his volunteers have been on the scene on all the major storms, and have given thousands of hours helping our fellow citizens!
Again thank you very much and continued success
in your endeavors.

Trunkmonkey.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has anyone pointed out that 1965, one of the "analogue" years for 2012, produced Hurricane Betsy which laid waste to SE Louisiana, including eastern New Orleans? The devastation marked the beginning of the end for my once-thriving hometown, Pointe-Ala-Hache, Louisiana.


Beware of the "quiet" years. It only takes one well-placed Hurricane to mess up your life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
511 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-082100-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCH ILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM- POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
511 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES 9 AM THIS MORNING WILL FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MOST
OF THE PANHANDLES AND AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS DURING THESE TIMES WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS....BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.

$$

JACKSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Happy Easter to all. A great morning in San Juan to celebrate the ocasion with a bright sun without any clouds.
Happy Easter to you and yours also
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Happy Easter everybody! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hcubed:


Quick question - if the permafrost thawed 50 million years ago, releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane (which led to more warming), what event allowed it to get cold enough to refreeze the carbon dioxide and methane to re-create the current levels of permafrost?

With that much GHG in the atmosphere, we should have been as warm as Venus. There should be NO ice caps or glaciers today.
Faulty logic, that. Recovery took from 120,000 to 170,000 years. That's a short time on an astronomical scale, but well over a thousand centuries is a really long time for us to humans to deal with such heat.

(FWIW, it's scientists believe that the recovery--that is, the cooldown--resulted from an increase in biological activity and productivity, which in turn helped to transport carbon to the deep ocean. Such a process happens when global temperatures and CO2 levels are higher, and when there's an increased nutrient supply from higher continental weathering due to higher temperatures and rainfall. Of course, that was before billions of people were pumping out CO2 faster than even that speedier process could absorb it and sequester it away.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
Here is the SPC 4-8 outlook. Strong wording for D5.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SUN APR 08 2012

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ DIFFER IN THE TRACK
OF A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON D5/THU AND TO SOME DEGREE ON
D7/SAT...THESE MODELS DO AGREE IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS
FROM MID WEEK TO NEXT WEEKEND. A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A NWLY FLOW
REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL TO SERN U.S. WILL PERSIST INTO D4/WED WITH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON D5 AS SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE WRN STATES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

FOR D5/THU...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM LATE D4/WED THROUGH D5. ALTHOUGH THE GFS
IS MAINTAINING A NRN TRACK BIAS WITH WEAKER FORCING ACROSS
KS/OK...THE WARM SECTORS IN EACH MODEL ARE SIMILAR. NORMALLY THESE
TYPES OF MODEL VARIANCES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WOULD RESULT IN NOT
INCLUDING A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA. HOWEVER...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
DRY LINE...BUT WITH LOWER COVERAGE. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH THE
FORECAST FOR STRONGER WIND FIELDS PER THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO D5 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE D5/THU TROUGH AFFECT THE
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR D6/FRI...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A MORE
NRN TRACK ACROSS KS/NEB INTO IA...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATED A
GREATER THREAT FARTHER TO THE SSE.

FOR D7/SAT...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN WITH
RESPECT TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM SECTOR
SETUP ACROSS TX INTO KS. GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTS ANOTHER REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA SIMILAR TO D5 ACROSS OK/KS.

..PETERS.. 04/08/2012


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
Happy Easter to all. A great morning in San Juan to celebrate the ocasion with a bright sun without any clouds.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Happy Easter everyone!

The SPC has highlighted a threat area for Saturday, day 7... This may be the first time ever they have highlighted an area on day 7

I am quite sure this isnt the first time, and it wont be the last.
It is interesting that D5 and D7 are over the same areas, and D6 should be somewhere around there.
If all three days are outbreaks, that would be bad.


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Happy Easter everyone!

The SPC has highlighted a threat area for Saturday, day 7... This may be the first time ever they have highlighted an area on day 7
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7836
Well I knew that AGW was causing more pollen but never considered a rise in rabies Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SteveDa1:
Thawing permafrost 50 million years ago led to global warm events

“If the Arctic permafrost thaws out, it will release carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere and amplify warming due to the burning of fossil fuels."


Quick question - if the permafrost thawed 50 million years ago, releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane (which led to more warming), what event allowed it to get cold enough to refreeze the carbon dioxide and methane to re-create the current levels of permafrost?

With that much GHG in the atmosphere, we should have been as warm as Venus. There should be NO ice caps or glaciers today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
April 4, 2011

April 5, 2012

Sea surface anomalies.
According to those 2 maps,which for some reason are not too clear in detail but the Mid to Southern Atlantic seems to have an isolated area of cold in/on it.
If that area should warm up then looking at the map in general there would be an immense area of warmer then normal waters from Iceland to Brazil, including the central Eastern Pacific.
Just a thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well here is where all of snow was this winter



Updated with latest snow total

... Anchorage sets new seasonal snowfall record...

Snow has tapered off to flurries at the National Weather Service
forecast office and no additional accumulation is expected from
this storm. An additional 0.9 inches of snow fell between 4 PM
and 7 PM which brings the total for the day to 4.3 inches.

This makes the 2011-2012 winter season the snowiest ever with
a total of 134.5 inches. The previous seasonal snowfall record
was 132.6 inches set in 1954-1955.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115235
Quoting sunlinepr:


USGS issues announcement about polar bears with oozing sores, hair loss in Alaska Govt testing for radiation 3 of 4 captured yesterday affected Similar symptoms as recent mystery seal deaths (PHOTO & AUDIO)

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3162



They haven't been able to determine anything from the initial set of tests (which included radiation, biological, and toxicological tests) so have moved on to more advanced testing for possible vectors.

These types of symptoms have happened before, but the odd thing here is that this time it seems to be affecting different species at the same time. The affected areas seem to be the face, head, and neck which seems to rule out general radioactive or chemical exposure as that would typically affect the whole body as well internal organs (other than the patchy hair loss and skin lesions, the animals appeared healthy according to the article).

There are various diseases and parasites that afflict those species that can cause such symptoms. It could even be a type of fungal infection. But we'll have to wait and see what the more advanced tests reveal.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1495
Quoting sunlinepr:


USGS issues announcement about polar bears with oozing sores, hair loss in Alaska %u2014 Gov%u2019t testing for radiation %u2014 3 of 4 captured yesterday affected %u2014 Similar symptoms as recent mystery seal deaths (PHOTO & AUDIO)

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3162



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Good comparison, Keep. December is a good month to use, because that is how the term "El Nino began. As most of you know it means the "Christ Child" The local fisherman noticed this phenomenon of cooling waters and warming around December near Christmas, hence the term.
and come dec 2012 will be the time to see the difference and what comes forth
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


USGS issues announcement about polar bears with oozing sores, hair loss in Alaska Govt testing for radiation 3 of 4 captured yesterday affected Similar symptoms as recent mystery seal deaths (PHOTO & AUDIO)

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3162

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam comparing the end of the 2011 cane season temps with the 2012 april temps 54 days before season start in atlantic and if its this warm 54 days out i cannot wait to see what june 1st will look like if they continue on the up swing in the nino nina regions


Good comparison, Keep. December is a good month to use, because that is how the term "El Nino began. As most of you know it means the "Christ Child" The local fisherman noticed this phenomenon of cooling waters and warming around December near Christmas, hence the term.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
later CH27
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Night everyone.

Good night hurricanehunter27
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam comparing the end of the 2011 cane season temps with the 2012 april temps 54 days before season start in atlantic and if its this warm 54 days out i cannot wait to see what june 1st will look like if they continue on the up swing in the nino nina regions
Ok well with the title of the post I thought you were trying to convey something to do with the upcoming el nino.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The post he is comparing is from December of 2011 not April. There is nothing you cant take from that post except the water is colder in December. Keep, if you want to make a good comparison get a map of the same month a nino occurred.
iam comparing the end of the 2011 cane season temps with the 2012 april temps 54 days before season start in atlantic and if its this warm 54 days out i cannot wait to see what june 1st will look like if they continue on the up swing in the nino nina regions
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

MDZ003>005-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-
080930-
/O.CON.KLWX.FZ.W.0006.120408T0600Z-120408T1300Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...
ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
907 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...29 TO 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED VEGETATION THAT IS SENSITIVE
IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

SMZ
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39144
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The post he is comparing is from December of 2011 not April. There is nothing you cant take from that post except the water is colder in December.

You are right...the sst anomaly chart gives one a better idea of what is happening
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 916 - 866

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.