CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I like most of it, but I must point out that unemployment is actually at about 8% right now...
Thats what the goverment reports but the real# are more like 17% people who have given up or the under empolyed!!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, human beings have not evolved. Scientific evidence shows that everything is breaking down, not becoming more advanced. Technology is only a matter of time, just because we know more and have better technology than early peoples doesn't mean we are smarter.


Life doesn't evolve, it adapts and fights to survive, despite that it is breaking down. Evolution is a myth.


We don't need to evolve... When you are the number 1 it isn't necessary.
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Gusty winds now hitting my windows as the rain starts as the remnants of yesterday's American Front (cold variety) weakens and stalls over Southern Ontario. Fire danger is increasing across the Upper Mideast USA, and a storm system over New Mexico is bringing tornadic potential to the eastern end, downbursts (i.e. microbursts) potentially to the western end, and plenty of desert wind to the plains of the Extreme Eastern Sonora, experiencing drought.

Haboobs, anybody?

Luckily, nobody was killed in the April 3 tornado outbreak, an incredible contrast to the March 2-3 outbreak that killed at least 40 people. Considering that Discovery Channel once aired an episode showing the worst-case scenario of a tornado hitting the heart of Dallas, Texas, this darn-near-worst-case-scenario disaster claimed no lives, the strongest tornado an EF3 instead of a worst-case EF5. Many recent disasters, including the Texas outbreak, and two magnitude 7+ earthquakes, one in Mexico and the other in Chile, all claimed no casualties, proving that natural disasters really can come without loss of life. In the Mexico earthquake particularly, PAGER estimated the chances of no fatalities occurring to be less then 5%. IIRC, Texas in particular has seen no deadly tornadoes last year nor so far this year, despite being ripped multiple times in densely-populated residential areas.
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Reading the comments on the last page makes me want hurricane season to come faster.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, human beings have not evolved. Scientific evidence shows that everything is breaking down, not becoming more advanced. Technology is only a matter of time, just because we know more and have better technology than early peoples doesn't mean we are smarter.


Life doesn't evolve, it adapts and fights to survive, despite that it is breaking down. Evolution is a myth.


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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Really? I heard it called a Super Outbreak 24 hours after it ended.


I've always called it Super Outbreak 2011 since it happened, and so do most of my friends who I discuss weather with irl.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, human beings have not evolved. Scientific evidence shows that everything is breaking down, not becoming more advanced. Technology is only a matter of time, just because we know more and have better technology than early peoples doesn't mean we are smarter.


Life doesn't evolve, it adapts and fights to survive, despite that it is breaking down. Evolution is a myth.


You obviously don't understand the concept of evolution since you claim life is adapting but not evolving. Humans are no longer evolving, but it isn't because it doesn't exist, it's because humans no longer follow natural selection due to our higher intelligence.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, human beings have not evolved. Scientific evidence shows that everything is breaking down, not becoming more advanced. Technology is only a matter of time, just because we know more and have better technology than early peoples doesn't mean we are smarter.


Life doesn't evolve, it adapts and fights to survive, despite that it is breaking down. Evolution is a myth.


You make some strong claims. You claim scientific evidence.

Please produce it.
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hope all you weather lovers have a nice easter day 92 was a calm yr too.
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At any rate, happy Easter to all!
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well arent you cool



lol ;)
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it is what it is and what it shall be
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Quoting bappit:

I never heard it called "Super Outbreak". I would never search for that. The name also sounds trite because we overuse the word super. Might as well call it the Really Bad Outbreak. That would be more descriptive. So I vote for the date designation.


Really? I heard it called a Super Outbreak 24 hours after it ended and several times after. When Joplin happened, I read articles call refer to the Joplin damage of that in Tuscaloosa in 'The Super Outbreak last April'.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24193
Quoting RTSplayer:


Well, technically, the first automated, industrial and agricultural water pumps and even the first known steam engine were invented in Egypt, the middle East, and ancient Babylon. These early water wheels often used a stream's natural flow to create an unbalanced wheel, which is able to pump a small amount of water up hill to feed aquaducts and irrigation systems.

There is even evidence that some middle eastern and Egyptian inventors had created practical water pumps which used pistons and air pressure to move water, and were powered by the flow rate of the stream. They also had known water clocks and automaton novelty displays powered by gravity, water, and air pressure dynamics.

Unfortunately, the practical applications of the steam engine were not realized at the time, and the technology and perhaps even the very concept were lost for nearly two millennium.

There is also a decription of a large catapult and a scorpion tail style arrow launcher and other "engines of war" in the Bible, which appears in a text around 800 years B.C. invented by the Israelis and Syrians, I think. These sorts of weapons were not widely used in warfare in other nations until the height of the Roman empire, about a thousand years later.

The Bible also places the invention of Iron weapons, armor, and chariots about a thousand years earlier than mainstream archeology, specifically, a reference to 900 chariots of Iron, which was again in the middle east. I forget which group it was that had it, but I think its Sisera's men, but not sure, memory is foggy.

Anyone capable of fielding 900 iron Chariots in an era where everyone else was supposedly still using slings and early composite bows, spears, copper or bronze sickle swords and wooden or copper chariots...well, they would have been almost unbeatable in conventional warfare in open spaces.

What's even more amazing is they did this through trial and error, without any theory of atomic matter, optics, electricity, thermodynamics, computer models, chemistry, assembly lines, etc...


Anyway, point is most of the early precursors to technology came out of the middle east. Perhaps China's biggest contributions were astronomy, optics, and gun powder (early chemistry).



Well, human beings have not evolved. Scientific evidence shows that everything is breaking down, not becoming more advanced. Technology is only a matter of time, just because we know more and have better technology than early peoples doesn't mean we are smarter.


Life doesn't evolve, it adapts and fights to survive, despite that it is breaking down. Evolution is a myth.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That outbreak was a Super Outbreak,

Any other term for it is misleading and undermining the fact of how serious of an event that was.

I never heard it called "Super Outbreak". I would never search for that. The name also sounds trite because we overuse the word super. Might as well call it the Really Bad Outbreak. That would be more descriptive. So I vote for the date designation.
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Quoting NativeSun:
The weather models can only some what predict the weather out 3 days. What is the difference in the global warming models they use to predict whats going to happen to the climate in 100 yrs.


From Skeptical Science -

"This argument betrays a misunderstanding of the difference between weather, which is chaotic and unpredictable and climate which is weather averaged out over time. While you can't predict with certainty whether a coin will land heads or tails, you can predict the statistical results of a large number of coin tosses. Or expressing that in weather terms, you can't predict the exact route a storm will take but the average temperature and precipitation will result the same for the region over a period of time.

Climate prediction is a difficult and ever refining art. There's the problem that future behaviour of the sun is very difficult to predict. Similarly, short term perturbations like El Nino or volcanic eruptions are difficult to model. Nevertheless, climate scientists have a handle on the major drivers of climate."

http://www.skepticalscience.com/weather-forecasts -vs-climate-models-predictions-intermediate.htm

There's a lot more great info there if you are interested in catching up....
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Quoting SteveDa1:


Perhaps you should be reminded that this blog is dedicated to weather and climate. In the off-season there has, are, and always will be discussions about climate change and global warming because the folks on this blog are all weather enthusiasts at the least.

I do not think for a second that the topics you mentioned are not worth discussing but NOT here.

No need to feel offended, you have to expect discussions about global warming on a weather and climate blog. What shouldn't be expected - in this blog - are talks related to the aforementioned topics.


are you a monitor, I will abide by the monitors:

Not some stiff!
Who gave you the right to monitor this site?
I pay my dues, and most of the topics I discuss is about valid weather issues.
I think Dr. Masters has a wonder site, here, I'm really like most of the weather buffs in here, it's so cool, but I believe there is an underlying agenda with the GW group as a whole.

Thank you! Trunkmonkey


Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 582
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


If I may, what have the republicans done to "intentionally" ruin our country? Oh and doing something you disagree with doesn't count.


Prevented job growth.

Done what they could to slow economic recovery.

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

Excerpts:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 178.5E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND.

THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION (070900Z) REVEALS A WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALY THAT IS HORIZONTALLY LARGE AND DISPLACED HIGHER IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN FOR A TYPICAL WARM CORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE WEAK CENTRAL WINDS, DISPLACED CONVECTION, AND TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS, THIS DISTURBANCE IS CLASSIFIED AS A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST A TRANSITION INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT RATHER OPENS THE CIRCULATION INTO A WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE LOW THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting trunkmonkey:



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.



"Racial divide is at a new high"? "Occupy 99% is dividing the economic group"? "Socialist" (sic) "unions...government...president" are dividing our country"? Unemployment APPROACHING 20%???!!! That last statement in particular is way, WAY off; you need to recheck your news sourcees.

Personally, I think it's the extremist Tea Partiers and Faux News that are busy dividing this country. And they seem to create, moreso than anyone I've seen of late, this need in people to take wild, made-up stats and launch them - screaming - into venues like this one, a weather blog.

Truth is, all of us won't ever agree on politics, and probably not even on climate. But this is Dr. Masters' blog; he chooses to write sometimes about GW and I come here in part because I tend to agree with his views. There are other places to rant about the real and imagined political topics you highlighted.

And then there is the real danger of hurricanes. That, more than anything else, is why I and presumably most of us are here. Please keep Faux and the neo-cons off the pages.

Thanks!

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Quoting BobWallace:


Me too. I am extremely sick of Global Warming. And really scared of Global Warming, too. Not so much for me, I'm kind of an old fart and well set up in a part of the world that shouldn't be badly hurt in the next 20 or so years.

Our country does have a debt problem. Not as bad a problem as some would make you think. If we require the wealthiest to pay a fair share of taxes and cut our oil war spending we'll be OK.

Gasoline is almost certainly going higher. We're very fortunate that electric vehicle technology is advancing so rapidly. Driving an EV using 10 cent/kWh electricity is like driving a 50MPG gasmobile with $1.75/gallon gas.

Unemployment is 8.3% and falling. New job creation is pretty good. The number one job creator is renewable energy. New jobs are being created in green technology 2x as fast as the second fastest sector. Renewable energy employees 3-4x as many people as does the fossil fuel industry.

Socialism died a long time ago. Unions work to get decent pay and working conditions for workers. If it weren't for unions most of us would still be working 60-70 hour weeks and getting royally screwed over by our employers. (Look at working conditions in China and ask yourself if you'd rather work there.)

Clearly our country is being divided. It's time we put party loyalty behind us and talked about solving our common problems. It's criminal that one political party would intentionally harm the US in an attempt to retake the White House as the Republicans have done this last year.

Having been around for a few decades, let me assure you that this country is not a powder keg. We've got a few right wing crackpots who think they have a right to kill people who don't agree with them, but we are nowhere close to the sorts of civil unrest we've seen in the past.

The French Revolution was caused by the "1% screwing over the 99%". Difference between then and now is that we elect our government, we don't have a king.


If I may, what have the republicans done to "intentionally" ruin our country? Oh and doing something you disagree with doesn't count.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6599
The weather models can only some what predict the weather out 3 days. What is the difference in the global warming models they use to predict whats going to happen to the climate in 100 yrs.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.



Me too. I am extremely sick of Global Warming. And really scared of Global Warming, too. Not so much for me, I'm kind of an old fart and well set up in a part of the world that shouldn't be badly hurt in the next 20 or so years.

Our country does have a debt problem. Not as bad a problem as some would make you think. If we require the wealthiest to pay a fair share of taxes and cut our oil war spending we'll be OK.

Gasoline is almost certainly going higher. We're very fortunate that electric vehicle technology is advancing so rapidly. Driving an EV using 10 cent/kWh electricity is like driving a 50MPG gasmobile with $1.75/gallon gas.

Unemployment is 8.3% and falling. New job creation is pretty good. The number one job creator is renewable energy. New jobs are being created in green technology 2x as fast as the second fastest sector. Renewable energy employees 3-4x as many people as does the fossil fuel industry.

Socialism died a long time ago. Unions work to get decent pay and working conditions for workers. If it weren't for unions most of us would still be working 60-70 hour weeks and getting royally screwed over by our employers. (Look at working conditions in China and ask yourself if you'd rather work there.)

Clearly our country is being divided. It's time we put party loyalty behind us and talked about solving our common problems. It's criminal that one political party would intentionally harm the US in an attempt to retake the White House as the Republicans have done this last year.

Having been around for a few decades, let me assure you that this country is not a powder keg. We've got a few right wing crackpots who think they have a right to kill people who don't agree with them, but we are nowhere close to the sorts of civil unrest we've seen in the past.

The French Revolution was caused by the "1% screwing over the 99%". Difference between then and now is that we elect our government, we don't have a king.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.



I like most of it, but I must point out that unemployment is actually at about 8% right now...
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Quoting trunkmonkey:



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.



I hate to break it to you, but there are no socialists out to "divide" the country.
You're other concerns may be valid to an extent, but that's why there are other forums to discuss those issues on other sites. GW seems to be pretty appropriate for a weather blog.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.



Perhaps you should be reminded that this blog is dedicated to weather and climate. In the off-season there has, are, and always will be discussions about climate change and global warming because the folks on this blog are all weather enthusiasts at the least.

I do not think for a second that the topics you mentioned are not worth discussing but NOT here.

No need to feel offended, you have to expect discussions about global warming on a weather and climate blog. What shouldn't be expected - in this blog - are talks related to the aforementioned topics.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Easter: one of two days that my family forces me to at least pretend to be a Christian. All other days, i believe in no god.


Well arent you cool
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6599
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

Excerpts:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 178.5E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND.

THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION (070900Z) REVEALS A WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALY THAT IS HORIZONTALLY LARGE AND DISPLACED HIGHER IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN FOR A TYPICAL WARM CORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE WEAK CENTRAL WINDS, DISPLACED CONVECTION, AND TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS, THIS DISTURBANCE IS CLASSIFIED AS A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST A TRANSITION INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT RATHER OPENS THE CIRCULATION INTO A WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE LOW THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody here has a registered Wikipedia account, go here and give your opinion.

We're having a huge debate whether or not last year's tornado outbreak will stay at the name "April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak" or be moved to "2011 Super Outbreak".



That outbreak was a Super Outbreak,

Any other term for it is misleading and undermining the fact of how serious of an event that was.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24193
Quoting BobWallace:


There's no doubt that the Earth has gotten very hot and very cold in the far past. During both of those extreme temperature periods humans would not have been able to live the sort of lifestyle we now enjoy.

Those changes seem to have happened over very long time, hundreds of thousands of years. What is happening now is that we are driving our temperatures very, very rapidly - something that the Earth has never seen before.

If we stop pumping CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere today the temperature of the Earth will continue to rise for a few decades. And then plants will gradually remove the extra CO2 out of the atmosphere and once again store it below the surface of the Earth. That will take a long time.

Recovery from extremely high CO2 levels in past heating cycles took thousands of years.

We've already sentenced ourselves to higher and rising temperatures for the next many years. Climate and weather will continue to change. The question is - "How much increased heat do we want to stick people with 20+ years from now?"

If you're under 50 you really need to be worrying about how you life is going to be later on if the Earth is considerably hotter than it is now.

It most likely won't get "as hot as Venus", but it's likely to be so hot that no one will want to live in the Southern states. Most of Texas could turn to desert. People may be abandoning their houses and businesses in the hottest, driest parts of the country and flooding north to escape the heat and drought.

That sort of thing will be happening around the world as much of our current populated land becomes too inhospitable for large numbers of people.

Then, long after we've undergone that immense disruption, plants will slowly bring CO2 levels down and the Earth will once again be comfortable for human life.

But we're talking about making the Earth very uncomfortable in tens and short hundreds of years and tens/hundreds of thousands of years to recover.



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.

Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 582
Quoting percylives:
Happy Easter, everyone.

Two things to consider if "down in the dumps" because of the present world situation.

1) It is not humanity that is broken and driving the planet into uninhabitable conditions, just our culture. We do not have to change the genes just the memes to fix it.

2) There are groups such as P2P, Bitcoin, and Open Source Manufacturing, which are already working on the structure of the new, more sustainable and cooperative world. The memes are already being changed.

There is much to be thankful for.


Is bitcoin still real...?
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Quoting hcubed:


Quick question - if the permafrost thawed 50 million years ago, releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane (which led to more warming), what event allowed it to get cold enough to refreeze the carbon dioxide and methane to re-create the current levels of permafrost?

With that much GHG in the atmosphere, we should have been as warm as Venus. There should be NO ice caps or glaciers today.


There's no doubt that the Earth has gotten very hot and very cold in the far past. During both of those extreme temperature periods humans would not have been able to live the sort of lifestyle we now enjoy.

Those changes seem to have happened over very long time, hundreds of thousands of years. What is happening now is that we are driving our temperatures very, very rapidly - something that the Earth has never seen before.

If we stop pumping CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere today the temperature of the Earth will continue to rise for a few decades. And then plants will gradually remove the extra CO2 out of the atmosphere and once again store it below the surface of the Earth. That will take a long time.

Recovery from extremely high CO2 levels in past heating cycles took thousands of years.

We've already sentenced ourselves to higher and rising temperatures for the next many years. Climate and weather will continue to change. The question is - "How much increased heat do we want to stick people with 20+ years from now?"

If you're under 50 you really need to be worrying about how you life is going to be later on if the Earth is considerably hotter than it is now.

It most likely won't get "as hot as Venus", but it's likely to be so hot that no one will want to live in the Southern states. Most of Texas could turn to desert. People may be abandoning their houses and businesses in the hottest, driest parts of the country and flooding north to escape the heat and drought.

That sort of thing will be happening around the world as much of our current populated land becomes too inhospitable for large numbers of people.

Then, long after we've undergone that immense disruption, plants will slowly bring CO2 levels down and the Earth will once again be comfortable for human life.

But we're talking about making the Earth very uncomfortable in tens and short hundreds of years and tens/hundreds of thousands of years to recover.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL



open it and you may find me in a dress
Please, No! I still haven't recovered from Press-in-a-Dress.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Happy Easter to you pottery. How is the weather over there on this day? Here is gorgeous with a bright sun,blue sky with a few small clouds and temperature of 81F.

Thanks!
Similar weather here. Very nice, with enough breeze to keep things comfortable.

GrandKids coming over in a while.
Hope they get here soon. I'm hungry....
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Happy and Safe Easter to all! Finally getting some much needed rain here!
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Quoting yqt1001:


I fail to see how our culture will change anytime soon. Pretty much all non-European thoughts have been destroyed in the age of colonialism. For good reason to, as western culture is the most efficient overall (at least in the past few centuries). I highly doubt that the industrial revolution could've happened in China or the Middle East.

Now, of course this culture has its downsides, but is there anything else that can replace it? The most dominant culture will always prevail, and European colonialism has secured Western society in pretty much every nation. You don't want to look weak against your neighbours, so you have to adopt a western society etc.


Well, technically, the first automated, industrial and agricultural water pumps and even the first known steam engine were invented in Egypt, the middle East, and ancient Babylon. These early water wheels often used a stream's natural flow to create an unbalanced wheel, which is able to pump a small amount of water up hill to feed aquaducts and irrigation systems.

There is even evidence that some middle eastern and Egyptian inventors had created practical water pumps which used pistons and air pressure to move water, and were powered by the flow rate of the stream. They also had known water clocks and automaton novelty displays powered by gravity, water, and air pressure dynamics.

Unfortunately, the practical applications of the steam engine were not realized at the time, and the technology and perhaps even the very concept were lost for nearly two millennium.

There is also a decription of a large catapult and a scorpion tail style arrow launcher and other "engines of war" in the Bible, which appears in a text around 800 years B.C. invented by the Israelis and Syrians, I think. These sorts of weapons were not widely used in warfare in other nations until the height of the Roman empire, about a thousand years later.

The Bible also places the invention of Iron weapons, armor, and chariots about a thousand years earlier than mainstream archeology, specifically, a reference to 900 chariots of Iron, which was again in the middle east. I forget which group it was that had it, but I think its Sisera's men, but not sure, memory is foggy.

Anyone capable of fielding 900 iron Chariots in an era where everyone else was supposedly still using slings and early composite bows, spears, copper or bronze sickle swords and wooden or copper chariots...well, they would have been almost unbeatable in conventional warfare in open spaces.

What's even more amazing is they did this through trial and error, without any theory of atomic matter, optics, electricity, thermodynamics, computer models, chemistry, assembly lines, etc...


Anyway, point is most of the early precursors to technology came out of the middle east. Perhaps China's biggest contributions were astronomy, optics, and gun powder (early chemistry).
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody here has a registered Wikipedia account, go here and give your opinion.

We're having a huge debate whether or not last year's tornado outbreak will stay at the name "April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak" or be moved to "2011 Super Outbreak".

Too many other significant severe events in 2011 to call that one the "2011 Super Outbreak." jmo.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's what we're discussing.


I say if it lasted three days, make it the 2011 Super Outbreak.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's what we're discussing.

Combine them.... It's like our GW discussions, neither side will see te others point

Make it
April 25-28, 2011 super outbreak.
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Two significant severe weather outbreaks for Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, and Topeka within only two days. If these outbreaks happen, places that might get hit on Thursday could get hit again on Saturday.
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Quoting weatherh98:


What is the preference

That's what we're discussing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody here has a registered Wikipedia account, go here and give your opinion.

We're having a huge debate whether or not last year's tornado outbreak will stay at the name "April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak" or be moved to "2011 Super Outbreak".



What is the preference
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody here has a registered Wikipedia account, go here and give your opinion.

We're having a huge debate whether or not last year's tornado outbreak will stay at the name "April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak" or be moved to "2011 Super Outbreak".

Wow the format on Wikipedia is horrendous. Just a wall of text.
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If anybody here has a registered Wikipedia account, go here and give your opinion.

We're having a huge debate whether or not last year's tornado outbreak will stay at the name "April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak" or be moved to "2011 Super Outbreak".

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32286
Happy Easter, everybody!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Easter everybody!

I have never seen a Day 7 before...that isn't to say the SPC has never issued one, but I have never seen one. Strong wording on both the Day 5 and the Day 7.

Major outbreak of Severe Weather and Tornadoes becoming likely.


Both the outbreaks on Thursday and Saturday are pretty much in the same area. That could be very bad.
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Link

Sunny Days Are Here Again — But Is That Good?

April 7, 2012

Across the country, more than 7,700 daily temperature records were broken last month, on the heels of the fourth warmest winter on record.
...
"We were breaking records by upward of 40 degrees in some places," says Cullen, the author of The Weather of the Future. "It was this really ironic, extreme weather event because it was like, 'I'm loving this,' but at the same time it was incredibly unusual."
.....
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http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/Link

Full Disk showing 90C
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST April 8 2012
=====================================

Tropical Depression Near Midway Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 18.2N 178.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.


Do you have a link for this. Couldn't figure out where to find it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Easter everybody!

I have never seen a Day 7 before...that isn't to say the SPC has never issued one, but I have never seen one. Strong wording on both the Day 5 and the Day 7.

Major outbreak of Severe Weather and Tornadoes becoming likely.




I was googling to find one, and i thought i had it, and then i saw it was just one of your fake maps.
oops. lol
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.