CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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Noting:-1012. RTSplayer,
Off subject of weather but!!
Thank you for your comment, here's a bit of reality:-
I am amongst other things a highly experienced textile, woven fabric, designer, on our machines designed in 1860 I can weave 20, 6 foot long scarves an hour, a modern loom can weave about 80 an hour. Woven fabric rates vary from 4 to 10 yards an hour on the 1860 looms and up to 40 yards an hour on modern looms.
The problem facing manufacturers is not production but how to sell the product, if people don't earn or have the cash they don't buy products as they are preoccupied with basic survival, this is what is now happening in Greece and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe.
I also work in building construction. Recently we built a house from bricks that were collected from a building rubble dump as the client hadn't the cash to buy new bricks, we cleaned them up and reused them, we even collected steel reinforcing bars from a demolition site.Time has become unimportant, its the basic availability of work that counts now.
This is not the 3rd world but we are using their techniques.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Isnt the lastest GFS just started running?

Yes, the 18Z GFS just started running.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting ClimateChange:
Wow, look at all of the record low daily stream flows from the Upper Midwest to New England and down in the Southeast. I knew it's been dry but I didn't realize it's been this dry. Widespread severe hydrologic drought in the east, with even some extreme drought in parts of New England. Just imagine how bad it will be in the summer if we don't get any rain.





Just focusing on the northeast, because I live there, a lot of the problem is that the streams/creeks/"rivers" really aren't that deep to begin with- -with the exception of the Hudson River, of course. So, even though the US drought monitor site only has us as "abnormally dry" to "moderate drought" it doesn't take much to have notable effects on the local bodies of water. I've been going through the drought archives, and if the current pattern persists for about another few weeks, parts of the northeast, ie the hudson valley, could potentially be looking at their most significant drought since 2002. - - in either way, it's even more remarkable when one considers the record flooding from irene and lee just six months ago.
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1013. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is not particularly fond of Thursday's potential Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak, with meager dewpoints and shear and all, but boy does it love Saturday and on. It has very good hodographs and Skew-T's, and show back to back to back (and on...) outbreaks starting from Saturday and continuing through at least Wednesday (of next week).


Isnt the lastest GFS just started running?
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On the subject of the wages thing that has been discussed. The current situation is becoming one of lack of full time work and a lot of people I know are now working only 1 or 2 days a week. If they earn about $10 an hour which is about average now down from $15 an hour 10 years ago, then they will only earn from $80 to $160 a week, this translates to about $2 to $4 an hour if you look at it from a 40 hours week as 60 to 80% of the week is not worked.
I can only speak for the areas of Europe I am familiar with which include the UK and Southern Spain where we have 23% registered unemployment and rising. Any offers of work will be treated with a very positive and serious response.



Yup.

More and more, technology makes "work" obsolete, as fewer and fewer people are needed to update and maintain automated systems.

But of course, everyone needs money to live.

Of course, there isn't even an conception of a political or economic social system to handle the moral, social, and economic crisis this is creating in developed nations.

If you happen to own the automated manufacturing facility, or the automated warehouse, you are very happy, or at least should be making more profits than ever before with less overhead than ever before, which explains why owners and CEOs make 10 to 100 times more money relative to mean than at any previous time in history.


If you are an average Joe, or even an IT person, or in some cases even an Engineer who is replaced simply because the automation has been optimized and you are no longer needed, etc, then you are just SOL.

The jobs aren't coming back, and even farming is becoming more and more automation too.

In fact, I suspect some factories have become so advanced that they've actually had to cut production due to decreased demand. I should know, I used to work for one of them a few years ago. They increased their max productivity by like 12% without even adding new machines, just making minor tweaks to their systems, etc, and could probably get another 10 to 15% out of them if needed...and yet, as it was, they actually had to shut entire lines down for part of the week 4 months out of the year, because of beating demand.

I'm guessing they probably meet demand almost year round now on half the lines, just a guess, unless they've got a new customer or something. Of course, that translates to fewer jobs and fewer hours.

When I worked there, I actually knew an easy way to fix the system so they could have permanently laid off half the work force and would never have needed them. I never mentioned it to anybody, basically a million dollar per year idea, but if I did that about 30 people would lose their jobs in that one facility alone, or as many as 400 company-wide.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520


LOL!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Oily Confessions:-

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/69-spills-reported-in-n orth-sea-1

"There have been 69 reported incidents of oil and chemical spills in the North Sea during the last three months, figures have revealed."

The above of course are only the ones that have to be confessed too. That's 3 months worth so it would add up to about 280 a year; average "of course."

On the subject of the wages thing that has been discussed. The current situation is becoming one of lack of full time work and a lot of people I know are now working only 1 or 2 days a week. If they earn about $10 an hour which is about average now down from $15 an hour 10 years ago, then they will only earn from $80 to $160 a week, this translates to about $2 to $4 an hour if you look at it from a 40 hours week as 60 to 80% of the week is not worked.
I can only speak for the areas of Europe I am familiar with which include the UK and Southern Spain where we have 23% registered unemployment and rising. Any offers of work will be treated with a very positive and serious response.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClimateChange:
Wow, look at all of the record low daily stream flows from the Upper Midwest to New England and down in the Southeast. I knew it's been dry but I didn't realize it's been this dry. Widespread severe hydrologic drought in the east, with even some extreme drought in parts of New England. Just imagine how bad it will be in the summer if we don't get any rain.





The CPC must be expecting a hurricane for the Gulf or something... No relief for me though...

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I want some Japanese foods...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, look at all of the record low daily stream flows from the Upper Midwest to New England and down in the Southeast. I knew it's been dry but I didn't realize it's been this dry. Widespread severe hydrologic drought in the east, with even some extreme drought in parts of New England. Just imagine how bad it will be in the summer if we don't get any rain.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ugh, another one of these...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>0 08-090445-
/O.UPG.KBOX.FW.A.0007.120409T1400Z-120410T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.FW.W.0007.120409T1400Z-120410T0000Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
431 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF
RHODE ISLAND... AND A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE TAUNTON FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING MUCH OF
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF RHODE
ISLAND...AND A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF THE TAUNTON FORECAST AREA WHICH INCLUDES
MUCH OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF
RHODE ISLAND...AND CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT IN WESTERN
AREAS TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT IN EASTERN AREAS WITH 40 TO 45 PERCENT
ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

* IMPACTS...STATE FIRE WEATHER MANAGERS HAVE INFORMED US THAT ANY
FIRES THAT DEVELOP MONDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
FIELD

The drought is really getting bad up here... We haven't had any significant rain since the end of February, very uncommon up here especially this time of year.
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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
The GFS is not particularly fond of Thursday's potential Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak, with meager dewpoints and shear and all, but boy does it love Saturday and on. It has very good hodographs and Skew-T's, and show back to back to back (and on...) outbreaks starting from Saturday and continuing through at least Wednesday (of next week).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
Quoting RTSplayer:


The average commute in the U.S. is like 16 miles one way, and in Louisiana I think it's actually significantly higher.
a Bus thicket in belize is about 2.50 and a regular restaurant meal is also 2.50 us dollars
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hate being teased by summer. Florida was at 90^F for a week in my area, then we get hit with one soon to be two cold fronts bringing lows down in the 50s and highs barely into the 80s or upper 70s.

If you're going to get hot FL, at least stay that way as much as it is unpleasant. Oh well, in two weeks it will be blazing hot with 100% humidity. I just want to see all the severe thunderstorms pop up this year, El Nino years are generally more active IMO (2009's Severe Weather season in FL was pretty impressive)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
Quoting weatherh98:


Things prolly don't cost as much either.
Less tax pluss you learn to live with less and no heating charges as the teps are usually between 70 and 110
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Quoting belizeit:
Walk to work and eat corn tortillas and beans every day.


The average commute in the U.S. is like 16 miles one way, and in Louisiana I think it's actually significantly higher.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting weatherh98:


People who want to can and do.... People that work at it can run hundreds of miles at a time.


I have to disagree with that.

There are only a handful of currently active ultra-marathon runners in the world, and at least one of them has a known genetic mutation that makes his body recycle lactic acid at super-human rates. I suspect some of the others are also have rare genetics.

the claim of "anybody can do it if they just set their mind to it" sounds noble an humanist, but it's just not true, however much we'd like to believe it.

Heck, even in the best shape of my life, when I was in high school and college and even won physical fitness awards, I still couldn't even run 1.5 miles non-stop, even when I worked on it for long time. I never got below finishing 1.5 miles in just barely 12:30, walk some, run some, after about .75 miles, which many marathon runners wouldn't even consider that a run. As far as running goes, that's the best shape I've ever been in...at 19 or 20 years old, when I did 10 hours per week of martial arts and cardio...


You can also say the same thing about some classes of "intelligent" stuff.

I plateaued in Starcraft and Starcraft 2, and would never get significantly better no matter how hard I try, because I cannot multitask enough and don't have the reaction speed to get any better. I'm better than probably 90 to 95% of people who played the game regularly, and can even win some 1vs2, and I'm career undefeated in Free For All, but my ranking is still only mid-tier in the ladder ranking system.

I'd absolutely get demolished by Grand Master level players, most of whom are teenagers to early 20's, who don't even have as much of a mathematical or strategic understanding as me, simply because I can't multi-task and react fast enough any more, and also lose my concentration or get focused on one thing and forget to do another, etc.

Only matchup I'd even be able to make someone "play for real" at Grand Master level would be protoss mirror, and I'd have to win the game outright on my first timing push to have any chance whatsoever, because I'd get destroyed and embarrassed easily if it turned into a high economy game with lots of multi-tasking.

I used to play Starcraft as much as 12 hours per day...almost every day...and was never rated above C+ in Starcraft, and have never been rated above the bottom of Diamond league in Starcraft 2, which is two leagues below Grand Masters.


Moral of the story is, no, practice does not make perfect. People can't just be the best at something, or perform at optimum level just because they practice or train very hard. Some people have a genetic or environmental advantage, and there just isn't a thing in the world anyone else can do to catch up. i.e "Iloveoov," guy had a 90% win rate against other professionals.

Or Roger Federer with a 90% win rate in a season in Tennis, if you're not a lefty named Nadal...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY
NIGHT...

.WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...COLDER CANADIAN AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE
STATE BY MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
FREEZING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.


IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>06 2-070>075-
081>086-092>097-090415-
/O.NEW.KDMX.FZ.A.0002.120410T0800Z-120410T1400Z/
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER -SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS- POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASK A-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECAT UR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...FOREST CITY...
NORTHWOOD...EMMETSBURG...GARNER...MASON CITY...POCAHONTAS...
HUMBOLDT...CLARION...HAMPTON...ALLISON...WAVERLY. ..SAC CITY...
ROCKWELL CITY...FORT DODGE...WEBSTER CITY...ELDORA...
GRUNDY CENTER...WATERLOO...DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON. ..
BOONE...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...TOLEDO...AUDUBON... GUTHRIE CENTER...
ADEL...DES MOINES...NEWTON...GRINNELL...ATLANTIC...GREENFIELD ...
WINTERSET...INDIANOLA...KNOXVILLE...OSKALOOSA...C ORNING...
CRESTON...OSCEOLA...CHARITON...ALBIA...OTTUMWA... BEDFORD...
MOUNT AYR...LEON...CORYDON...CENTERVILLE...BLOOMFIELD
308 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2012

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT
MONDAY...REACHING SUB FREEZING VALUES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BEFORE QUICKLY WARMING AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S EXPECTED. COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20...IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND ALONG THE NISHNABOTNA RIVER VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

AWB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37104
Quoting OrchidGrower:


"Racial divide is at a new high"? "Occupy 99% is dividing the economic group"? "Socialist" (sic) "unions...government...president" are dividing our country"? Unemployment APPROACHING 20%???!!! That last statement in particular is way, WAY off; you need to recheck your news sourcees.

Personally, I think it's the extremist Tea Partiers and Faux News that are busy dividing this country. And they seem to create, moreso than anyone I've seen of late, this need in people to take wild, made-up stats and launch them - screaming - into venues like this one, a weather blog.

Truth is, all of us won't ever agree on politics, and probably not even on climate. But this is Dr. Masters' blog; he chooses to write sometimes about GW and I come here in part because I tend to agree with his views. There are other places to rant about the real and imagined political topics you highlighted.

And then there is the real danger of hurricanes. That, more than anything else, is why I and presumably most of us are here. Please keep Faux and the neo-cons off the pages.

Thanks!



Sadly, liberalism is truly a mental disorder. You believe in the lies spewed daily by MSM.

Breitbart is here.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i noted the last few runs of the gfs for N CA it has N CA going in too the dry season after this week storm it may be the last 2 storms of the season be for we head in too the dry season i all so noted that things will really start to warm up too to the 80s and 90s


oh the S valley will pay for this they are haveing mid 80s today for highs


dran them
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Quoting yqt1001:
Happy easter everyone!

I got stuck with a bad case of the flu so no happiness for me, probably because of my extreme atheism. :P


Flu (and cold) are very easy to prevent... It's the sun. What do we get from the sun?

Link

Sun Scare is a major failure... Now we have a widespread vitamin D deficiency. AGW will also be another major failure like sun scare...
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Quoting reedzone:
Happy Resurrection (Easter) Sunday everyone, He has RISEN!!


He has Risen Indeed.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting reedzone:
Happy Resurrection (Easter) Sunday everyone, He has RISEN!!
And Joyous Celebration of the Germanic Pagan Goddess of Fertility Oestre right back at you! As millions of children around the world leave church, then celebrate the ancient and honored druid practices of coloring and hiding eggs--themselves a major symbol of fertility--while eating candy in the shape of chicks and rabbits (both major symbols of fecundity and rebirth), may you reflect upon your good fortune at making it through another winter, and may your wives, your children, and your livestock be fruitful and multiply!
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Latest CMC.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting belizeit:
Walk to work and eat corn tortillas and beans every day.


Things prolly don't cost as much either.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Very large low in a week.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting RTSplayer:


yeah, well, when you figure out what sort of currency scam makes that possible, let me know.

You sure as hell can't eat and pay rent for that in the U.S., certainly not on your own. For $1.50 per hour, you wouldn't be able to survive if you lived in a cardboard box and spent money only on food and clothing. You'd starve here in a few days.

That's only $3100 per year, so how do you even own a computer or electricity or feed yourself?
Walk to work and eat corn tortillas and beans every day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
<
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting trunkmonkey:



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.



I wish you could keep +1ing
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Actually, maybe you could say humans are un-evolving, due to technology. We no longer run 100 km (60 mi) continuously but choose instead to sit in front of a computer 10 hours a day and Supersize at McDonalds three days a week.


People who want to can and do.... People that work at it can run hundreds of miles at a time.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting trunkmonkey:



I'm am so sick and tired of the GW crap!

Our country is going to 18 Trillion in debt.
Gasoline is going to %5.00 a gallon
Unemployment is approaching 20%
Racial divide is at a new high.
The occupy 99% is dividing the economic group.
Socialist, and unions are dividing our country.
Congress and government along with the president are dividing our country.
The United States is a powder keg, and we discuss GW.

Go look at the Reasons of the French revolution, were headed down the same path!
and all we talk about the GW.

I usually agree with almost all of your posts, but.........The national debt is approaching 16 trillion, not 18 trillion, and increases about four billion a day, so we do have quite a bit of time before we hit 18. Gas is on the rise, but five dollar a gallon gas is unlikely. If it does get up around $4.25 per gallon on average country wide, California will have some stations that charge $5.00 a gallon for gas. Unemployment 20%.? The highest unemployment rate ever recorded in U.S. history was 15% in 1940. It has been suggested that in 1933, 25% of the labor force was out of work, but it is not an established fact. Racism is on the wane country wide, and has been for a while. Our two party system is dividing our country like it always has. Worse now than ever due to the fierce fight for money and power, which some people will do anything to get. The United States has always had a few powder kegs laying around the house. It is nothing new, and they will continue to grow larger and more numerous as we grow along with the rest of the world. Being the most powerful nation on Earth has its challenges, and not without its share of surprises and setbacks. jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting belizeit:
8.00 a hr is great pay Belize's minimum is 1.50 and very few people ever get more than that.


yeah, well, when you figure out what sort of currency scam makes that possible, let me know.

You sure as hell can't eat and pay rent for that in the U.S., certainly not on your own. For $1.50 per hour, you wouldn't be able to survive if you lived in a cardboard box and spent money only on food and clothing. You'd starve here in a few days.

That's only $3100 per year, so how do you even own a computer or electricity or feed yourself?
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
This isn't weather related, but somehow relevant to the world today. Mike Wallace, former host of 60 Minutes and a great interviewer, journalist, and wonderful human being is dead.

Link
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Here's a fun quizzicalthought of the day.

Can an ominpotent being create a door he cannot open?

...(several millenia later)

Short answer: Yes (assuming such a being can exist).


Long answer:
An omnipotent being can create such a door so that not even He can open it at the present moment. However, He can create the door so that it can be opened at another time - time, thus, is the missing element.

Furthermore, only an a Being capable of Omnipotence would be capable of simultaneously existing while being nonexistent, whereby omnipotence-delta(x,y) is inversely correlated with existence vector(x,x-x) over the geodesic of time(z). However, you can easily ignore that part, and instead eat 2,000 calories of chocolate. That was easy!


Happy Easter!



God, I wish I could just link a cool video!!


There is no evidence that the Abrahamic God is considered a "Logic Manipulator".

That concept is entirely fictional, as far as anyone has ever been able to prove.

A "logic manipulator" could not be trusted, because they could change the laws and nature of their own person, promises and relationships.

In fact, as I've pointed out on other forums, "God" in the Bible is directly described as equal to, with, and "being" the "Logos" which is the "rational principle which governs the universe".

Again, the Biblical God, certainly called "the beginning, the creator, Almighty, and even Omnipotent" is never given any attributes in the Bible to suggest he is a "Logic Manipulator".


If God creates a door, and the promises never to open it, and keeps his promise, then he has effectively done what you ask.


But silly logical paradoxes are just nonsense.

"This statement is false."

Well, if it's a lie, then you shouldn't believe it, but if you don't believe the statement then you must conclude the statement is true, since it claims to be false, but then that is a self contradiction either way.

But that's not a logic manipulation either, that's just meaningless nonsense.

Same thing applies to existing and non-existing at the same time.

That's just nonsense.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
In Texas we what-a-size it. So it should be called the What-an-Outbreak.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
Quoting pipelines:


You obviously don't understand the concept of evolution since you claim life is adapting but not evolving. Humans are no longer evolving, but it isn't because it doesn't exist, it's because humans no longer follow natural selection due to our higher intelligence.


I'm not sure I agree with that. We've largely changed the reproduction screen away from who's the strongest and can run fastest but that doesn't mean that humans are no longer selectively breeding.

Remember, evolution is about surviving long enough to reproduce. It's not survival in and of itself.

Here's an example of new human evolution that seems to be underway. We can currently test for inherited genetic disorders. If people who carry those disorders choose to not reproduce offspring carrying those genes then those genetic abnormalities will go extinct.

Then there's evolution forced by aesthetics. Those people judged to be "more attractive" are more likely to move into situations in which they will receive better health care, etc. Their children will be more likely to survive than the children stuck at the bottom of the economic level.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Mmmm I have studied the structure for Palm trees.And when you look at it they are made to with stand strong winds.Take for an example the state of Florida where their are dozens of Palm trees there.The bark is flexible in high winds.The leaves are loose and light so that they can easly blow in the wind.And that's why Palm trees can with stand more abuse while a hurricane makes landfall than a regular tree can.
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Quoting hcubed:


Quick question - if the permafrost thawed 50 million years ago, releasing massive amounts of carbon dioxide and methane (which led to more warming), what event allowed it to get cold enough to refreeze the carbon dioxide and methane to re-create the current levels of permafrost?

With that much GHG in the atmosphere, we should have been as warm as Venus. There should be NO ice caps or glaciers today.


Geology 101: Super-Volcano.

Iron ejecta absorbs CO2 through modifying chemistry, life, and physical process in the oceans.

Sulfur ejecta blocks out the Sun, causing building of massive ice caps and permafrost which overtakes bogs, and in a severe enough ice age, may even freeze out CO2 at the poles in Winter, though it'd have to be one hell of a could snap, but it could, in principle happen after a Super-eruption.

Experiments have shown that CO2 will not freeze out of the atmosphere under ordinary circumstances at the sublimation point, but then again, immediately after a super-eruption it may actually be much colder than that immediately at the poles in winter, maybe 10C or 20C colder than anything we've ever measured at the surface in nature on Earth.

A repeat of Toba would offset and potentially sequester about 200PPM to maybe 300PPM of CO2, all told...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting RTSplayer:


"unemployment" is a misleading statistic, because does not count people who have "given up trying", having recognized or at least believing it's hopeless.

Officially "unemployment" is as much as 55% for the 18 to 29 year old age group in the U.S. right now.

there's also a lot of guys living off odds and ends cash jobs or part time jobs, or their nurse or lawyer wife or girlfriend right now.

If you think $8 an hour is a job, it's more of a JOKE, and hardly pays the cost of getting back to work the next day, but that's about all that's available for anyone right now, at least without 10 to 15 years experience and a degree in the specific field.

"unemployment" also doesn't count "self employed" people like contractors, many of whom are making half or less income as they did before 2008.

Note to the mis-informed, when Republicans refer to "small businesses" that generally includes the self-employed, even though most of the people in this category live paycheck to paycheck and don't benefit from any Republican party's ideology or principles, even if they think they do.


P.S.

How do you un-ignore somebody? I accidentally clicked ignore user when I was trying to quote him...
8.00 a hr is great pay Belize's minimum is 1.50 and very few people ever get more than that.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I like most of it, but I must point out that unemployment is actually at about 8% right now...


"unemployment" is a misleading statistic, because does not count people who have "given up trying", having recognized or at least believing it's hopeless.

Officially "unemployment" is as much as 55% for the 18 to 29 year old age group in the U.S. right now.

there's also a lot of guys living off odds and ends cash jobs or part time jobs, or their nurse or lawyer wife or girlfriend right now.

If you think $8 an hour is a job, it's more of a JOKE, and hardly pays the cost of getting back to work the next day, but that's about all that's available for anyone right now, at least without 10 to 15 years experience and a degree in the specific field.

"unemployment" also doesn't count "self employed" people like contractors, many of whom are making half or less income as they did before 2008.

Note to the mis-informed, when Republicans refer to "small businesses" that generally includes the self-employed, even though most of the people in this category live paycheck to paycheck and don't benefit from any Republican party's ideology or principles, even if they think they do.


P.S.

How do you un-ignore somebody? I accidentally clicked ignore user when I was trying to quote him...
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Actually, maybe you could say humans are un-evolving, due to technology. We no longer run 100 km (60 mi) continuously but choose instead to sit in front of a computer 10 hours a day and Supersize at McDonalds three days a week.
I don't know about you but I hate Mc Donalds.So no super sizing here :).
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Quoting BobWallace:


You make some strong claims. You claim scientific evidence.

Please produce it.


Actually, maybe you could say humans are un-evolving, due to technology. We no longer run 100 km (60 mi) continuously but choose instead to sit in front of a computer 10 hours a day and Supersize at McDonalds three days a week.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:


are you a monitor, I will abide by the monitors:

Not some stiff!
Who gave you the right to monitor this site?
I pay my dues, and most of the topics I discuss is about valid weather issues.
I think Dr. Masters has a wonder site, here, I'm really like most of the weather buffs in here, it's so cool, but I believe there is an underlying agenda with the GW group as a whole.

Thank you! Trunkmonkey




Nice to meet you too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody here has a registered Wikipedia account, go here and give your opinion.

We're having a huge debate whether or not last year's tornado outbreak will stay at the name "April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak" or be moved to "2011 Super Outbreak".



NCDC Top Ten U.S Weather/Climate Events of 2011 has it labled as "Tornado Super Outbreak".
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Happy Resurrection (Easter) Sunday everyone, He has RISEN!!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Easter: one of two days that my family forces me to at least pretend to be a Christian. All other days, i believe in no god.


Here's a fun quizzicalthought of the day.

Can an ominpotent being create a door he cannot open?

...(several millenia later)

Short answer: Yes (assuming such a being can exist).


Long answer:
An omnipotent being can create such a door so that not even He can open it at the present moment. However, He can create the door so that it can be opened at another time - time, thus, is the missing element.

Furthermore, only an a Being capable of Omnipotence would be capable of simultaneously existing while being nonexistent, whereby omnipotence-delta(x,y) is inversely correlated with existence vector(x,x-x) over the geodesic of time(z). However, you can easily ignore that part, and instead eat 2,000 calories of chocolate. That was easy!


Happy Easter!



God, I wish I could just link a cool video!!
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Evolution does not mean progress. Teleology has no purpose here.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5961
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anybody here has a registered Wikipedia account, go here and give your opinion.

We're having a huge debate whether or not last year's tornado outbreak will stay at the name "April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak" or be moved to "2011 Super Outbreak".



How the heck do you even post in that mess of text?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I like most of it, but I must point out that unemployment is actually at about 8% right now...
Thats what the goverment reports but the real# are more like 17% people who have given up or the under empolyed!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.