CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding the seasonal activity, Dr. Masters noted that 65% of storms that develop usually develop from the MDR, and the MDR is featuring below average SST's this year. While this is similar to 2009, 2009 however didn't have the abundance of warmth we had in the western Atlantic. The warmth in the western Atlantic is closer to what we saw last year and in 2010, with above average SST's. Also, if I recall shear and vertical instability is running below and above average respectively in the western Atlantic.


April 7th, 2012.


April 8th, 2012.



In short, I believe the CV season will be similar to 2009, and we probably won't see a CV hurricane until mid to late August which is about average, and we probably won't see much in the way of hurricanes in the MDR. However, unlike 2009 and 2006 with the amount of warmth in the western Atlantic, a lot of the energy will be better focused there, and we will have much more in the way of home grown development. So, in short it won't be as active, no where near as active as the last two years, but I think it will end up with a solid 11-12 named, with 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Two majors would be CV hurricanes.

To completely honest, I'd be surprised if we got a major hurricane out of the Eastern Atlantic. My main concern is home grown systems that may find favorable conditions to spin up rapidly, particularly in the northwest Caribbean Sea (Rina?) and Gulf of Mexico (Humberto?). We'll have to see how wind shear, sea surface temperatures, and SAL especially look in June.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The price is actually higher than that in some area of Europe, but that is due to the fact that fuel is a heavily taxed commodity.

Higher gas prices are inevitable. Demand is outstripping supply and it will only get worse as time goes on. Any politician promising lower gas prices or "$2.00" gas prices is for all intents and purposes lying through their teeth.

If prices get high enough there will be an impact on global warming, but it wouldn't be as much as you might think and it may take several decades for prices to get high enough to do that. Even without cars, a lot of emissions are generated by power generation and industrial processes. Gasoline isn't the only combustible fuel for cars either. Natural gas and (if prices get high enough) coal liquification are also fuels that can be used. So higher prices MIGHT eventually slow the emissions rate, but by that time we will already be well on the way up the higher emissions scenarios.

If battery tech advances enough we may be able to centralize emissions to power generation facilities, thus making sequestration a more plausible solution. But we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.


Obama recently made a deal with the Saudi's to cut gas prices now to get re-elected and when ever the election I over, the prices will shoot up!

This is rediculous!!
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Quoting weatherh98:


DOOMSDAY PREPPERS!!!!


Nice joke, but that's really not what this is about.

This is about a fundamental transition in the very nature of human civilization, perhaps unlike anything in history since maybe farming, or domestication of animals or writing, or maybe currency itself.

People just haven't realized the consequences and applications of computers, internet, and even nano-tech just yet, but they are starting to. We've only just scratched the surface.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1505
Regarding the seasonal activity, Dr. Masters noted that 65% of storms that develop usually develop from the MDR, and the MDR is featuring below average SST's this year. While this is similar to 2009, 2009 however didn't have the abundance of warmth we had in the western Atlantic. The warmth in the western Atlantic is closer to what we saw last year and in 2010, with above average SST's. Also, if I recall shear and vertical instability is running below and above average respectively in the western Atlantic.


April 7th, 2012.


April 8th, 2012.



In short, I believe the CV season will be similar to 2009, and we probably won't see a CV hurricane until mid to late August which is about average, and we probably won't see much in the way of hurricanes in the MDR. However, unlike 2009 and 2006 with the amount of warmth in the western Atlantic, a lot of the energy will be better focused there, and we will have much more in the way of home grown development. So, in short it won't be as active, no where near as active as the last two years, but I think it will end up with a solid 11-12 named, with 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Two majors would be CV hurricanes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23018
Quoting LargoFl:
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...


The price is actually higher than that in some area of Europe, but that is due to the fact that fuel is a heavily taxed commodity.

Higher gas prices are inevitable. Demand is outstripping supply and it will only get worse as time goes on. Any politician promising lower gas prices or "$2.00" gas prices is for all intents and purposes lying through their teeth.

If prices get high enough there will be an impact on global warming, but it wouldn't be as much as you might think and it may take several decades for prices to get high enough to do that. Even without cars, a lot of emissions are generated by power generation and industrial processes. Gasoline isn't the only combustible fuel for cars either. Natural gas and (if prices get high enough) coal liquification are also fuels that can be used. So higher prices MIGHT eventually slow the emissions rate, but by that time we will already be well on the way up the higher emissions scenarios.

If battery tech advances enough we may be able to centralize emissions to power generation facilities, thus making sequestration a more plausible solution. But we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.
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1061. Patrap
Akio Matsumura talks about nuclear power plants, spent fuel pools, and the trouble with Reactor 4 at Fukushima.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
1060. JNCali
Quoting hydrus:
Do you think that there is a chance our country will get through this economic mess and recover.?

We may think its already bad but its not even close to where its headed.. You sow what you reap and the corporate entities that are running the world have been increasingly greedy for too many decades and the chickens are starting to come home to roost. And don't wait for the evening news to tell you when its time to stay indoors and lock your doors! ~imho
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1059. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has anybody ever come across a problem with Google Chrome where after you close it, go do something else, and then pull it back up, it won't load?


I've been telling you that for years. Had nothing but trouble when I put up chrome. Sure, great on graphics and website, but I had to remove it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
Quoting LargoFl:
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...


I've already tapered off my driving, 3.87-4.05 here in Houston gives me plenty of reason to take the bus and train. I can take the heat so I don't have a problem with sitting in a bus shelter for 10 minutes waiting. Besides, I can catch up on my reading.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Reasons one and two were largely due to a failure of adequate regulation to keep lenders under control.

A system developed in which mortgage brokers received payment for simply getting loans in place and primary lenders were able to bundle large numbers of mortgages together and sell them to investors removed the natural controls of failure from much of the system.

Back in the olden days you got your mortgage from a bank in your neighborhood. The back checked you out and checked out the property you wanted to buy. If you quit paying the bank was going to be stuck with a bad loan. That changed. The name of the game was "make the loan and move on".

I've owned a number of investment properties over the years. I know the routine when it comes to taking out a new loan. About a year before the housing market crashed I decided that it was time to move equity from a property in a not great neighborhood and in a market that was rapidly inflating to a better neighborhood and less volatile area.

I went to the mortgage broker's office with all the usual paperwork - last three year's tax returns, financial statements, bank records, etc. The broker wasn't interested in looking at them, didn't want to keep a copy.

Not having dealt with this company before I expected that someone higher up in the organization would contact me for the supporting documents.

Didn't happen. They gave me the loan without even confirming that I had a bank account.

That sort of stuff happened a lot. People got all excited about getting in to the housing market and normal screening procedures which should have kept them from getting in too deep were gone.

More and more people bought. They paid higher and higher prices. Bubble inflated. Bubble burst.



In addition, the rapidly rising house prices made loaning to less than credible recipients profitable. If they could pay their loans, great. If they couldn't, the bank would get the property back and could sell it at a higher price. It was a win-win situation, even with no-doc loans. The typical checks were thrown to the winds in order to achieve greater and greater profits.

History doesn't repeat itself but it sure does rhyme. ~Samuel Clemens
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Quoting weatherh98:


I just looked it up, and TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling.



So I think that makes you correct
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Quoting Levi32:


Well the TUTT ordinarily extends from the Caribbean up through the northeast Atlantic, directly through the subtropical belt, so it actually exists directly above the subtropical ridge.


I just looked it up, and TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling.

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1054. LargoFl
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
1053. Levi32
Quoting weatherh98:


Oh thank you,

I was thinking though, and the way that a ridge rotates, maybe he is saying that it would strengthen the winds on the northern side of the TUTT, i don't know, I'm still wrapping my head around it.


Well the TUTT ordinarily extends from the Caribbean up through the northeast Atlantic, directly through the subtropical belt, so it actually exists directly above the subtropical ridge.
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Quoting Levi32:


I have only read limited research on the TUTT, but considering that it is a trough aloft (low geopotential heights) with a core of cold air at ~300mb, strong subtropical ridging would tend to weaken that cold pocket and raise the geopotential heights, thus weakening the trough.


Oh thank you,

I was thinking though, and the way that a ridge rotates, maybe he is saying that it would strengthen the winds on the northern side of the TUTT, i don't know, I'm still wrapping my head around it.
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1051. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


I have only read limited research on the TUTT, but considering that it is a trough aloft (low geopotential heights) with a core of cold air at ~300mb, strong subtropical ridging would tend to weaken that cold pocket and raise the geopotential heights, thus weakening the trough.


Then again, it is possible that since the TUTT exists at such a high altitude (300mb-200mb), that most of the compressional warming from the subtropical ridge exists below that level, and the suppression of rising air within the ridge allows radiational cooling to maintain the TUTT above the ridge (which would be capped underneath, below 300mb).

I'm honestly not sure, as answers to specific questions on the TUTT like this seem to be hard to find, at least for me. Now that I think about it, TA13 could be right.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Honestly, I don't know if that's sufficient, we'll see.

I'm actually more concerned about early season pop-up storms in the A to C range, in the Gulf, western Caribbean, and Bahamas, you know, June or July, before any alleged El Nino gets going, if it even happens.

Due to the SST situation, the early season Audrey style western or central Gulf pop-up, or perhaps extreme western Caribbean south of the Yucatan channel, is probably the most threatening scenario, since it may have an opportunity before any El Nino.

If the El Nino happens, it should kill the second half of the Cape Verde season, I think, at least as far as U.S. landfalls (see 2009). June, July, and even August could potentially be unaffected by El Nino, and will probably be experiencing neutral conditions.

I agree... This will be a front-end loaded season... Things should pretty much shut off at the end of September
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.



Honestly, I don't know if that's sufficient, we'll see.

I'm actually more concerned about early season pop-up storms in the A to C range, in the Gulf, western Caribbean, and Bahamas, you know, June or July, before any alleged El Nino gets going, if it even happens.

Due to the SST situation, the early season Audrey style western or central Gulf pop-up, or perhaps extreme western Caribbean south of the Yucatan channel, is probably the most threatening scenario, since it may have an opportunity before any El Nino.

If the El Nino happens, it should kill the second half of the Cape Verde season, I think, at least as far as U.S. landfalls (see 2009). June, July, and even August could potentially be unaffected by El Nino, and will probably be experiencing neutral conditions.

Named storms: 14-15
Hurricanes: 7
Majors: 3-4

Operating under the assumption that the first 40% to 50% of the season will be neutral.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1505
1048. Levi32
Quoting weatherh98:


Wait explain how it wouldn't...
Imma bit slow:)


I have only read limited research on the TUTT, but considering that it is a trough aloft (low geopotential heights) with a core of cold air at ~300mb, strong subtropical ridging would tend to weaken that cold pocket and raise the geopotential heights, thus weakening the trough.
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Quoting weatherh98:


We don't need to evolve... When you are the number 1 it isn't necessary.


Actually we are still evolving but instead of natural pressures for survival we are evolving by social and economical pressures.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SUN APR 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082248Z - 090045Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS SE TX
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE THREAT
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR/RUC SOUNDINGS AND SFC
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS ARE LOCATED IN AND AROUND ANDERSON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INTERSECTION OF A SWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OK AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RESULTANT FROM YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS W TX. AS A
RESULT...STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS
INTERSECTION WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 04/08/2012
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Quoting Levi32:


I can't be certain, but I don't think strong subtropical ridging strengthens the TUTT. That would tend to raise heights aloft.


Wait explain how it wouldn't...
Imma bit slow:)
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1044. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shear will probably remain above average across much of the basin this year due to the strong subtropical ridge. This enhances the TUTT and ultimately increases wind shear. The #1 reason many storms during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season died out, especially in the Central and Eastern Atlantic, was due to the strong TUTT. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), the TUTT should not be as strong this season.


I can't be certain, but I don't think strong subtropical ridging strengthens the TUTT. That would tend to raise heights aloft. Predicting the strength of the TUTT is also a very difficult endeavor.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Only the ones living within their means and got money. The others wont. Some rich will be fine, because they know how to deal money, others don't have a chance. This is all going to come down no matter what experts, wall street, UN, any governments say. There is gonna be a economic war at some point soon. Everything will crash and burn there is no getting outta of this. System is rigged right now, and only can be rigged for so long till you run outta rigged ideas.


DOOMSDAY PREPPERS!!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.



Even tho I was four, I distinctly remember 2002 as a pretty nasty year.... I set on the porch and watched trees fall, I guess that was the year I got hooked and have been ever since.
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Quoting hydrus:
Do you think that there is a chance our country will get through this economic mess and recover.?


Only the ones living within their means and got money. The others wont. Some rich will be fine, because they know how to deal money, others don't have a chance. This is all going to come down no matter what experts, wall street, UN, any governments say. There is gonna be a economic war at some point soon. Everything will crash and burn there is no getting outta of this. System is rigged right now, and only can be rigged for so long till you run outta rigged ideas.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.



Agree that is a good analog with a handfull of CV systems and more homegrowns.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:


The CPC must be expecting a hurricane for the Gulf or something... No relief for me though...



Wait. What?

I haven't seen a green that dark since... well, I found the CPC site (last summer.)
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Quoting RTSplayer:>The housing market collapsed for several reasons, main three are:

1, they were over priced to begin with.

2, People buying bigger than was reasonable.

3, Trend of smaller families over the past 3 generations means that the number of new homes required is less and less


Reasons one and two were largely due to a failure of adequate regulation to keep lenders under control.

A system developed in which mortgage brokers received payment for simply getting loans in place and primary lenders were able to bundle large numbers of mortgages together and sell them to investors removed the natural controls of failure from much of the system.

Back in the olden days you got your mortgage from a bank in your neighborhood. The back checked you out and checked out the property you wanted to buy. If you quit paying the bank was going to be stuck with a bad loan. That changed. The name of the game was "make the loan and move on".

I've owned a number of investment properties over the years. I know the routine when it comes to taking out a new loan. About a year before the housing market crashed I decided that it was time to move equity from a property in a not great neighborhood and in a market that was rapidly inflating to a better neighborhood and less volatile area.

I went to the mortgage broker's office with all the usual paperwork - last three year's tax returns, financial statements, bank records, etc. The broker wasn't interested in looking at them, didn't want to keep a copy.

Not having dealt with this company before I expected that someone higher up in the organization would contact me for the supporting documents.

Didn't happen. They gave me the loan without even confirming that I had a bank account.

That sort of stuff happened a lot. People got all excited about getting in to the housing market and normal screening procedures which should have kept them from getting in too deep were gone.

More and more people bought. They paid higher and higher prices. Bubble inflated. Bubble burst.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The truth to the fact is..
We won't be looking out east for many "promising" storms like 2007, we will most likely pull one or two storms out of the deep tropics this year, those who will likely be peak of the season, tropical storms. The other predicted 11 i have are mischeavious storms that impact Florida and the south east in the early portion of the season, then Texas and Louisiana in the Later, as well as Central America.

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
1036. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:


Everything will come crashing down and when it does it's gonna happen fast, it's only TIME now, we wait on
Do you think that there is a chance our country will get through this economic mess and recover.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Nice weather in Tallahasee, currently looking around florida state, should be back in GA tomorrow.
Back to school.... ughh.
why cant i just study math, science, and weather.

My thoughts, Exactly...
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting:-1012. RTSplayer,
Off subject of weather but!!
Thank you for your comment, here's a bit of reality:-
I am amongst other things a highly experienced textile, woven fabric, designer, on our machines designed in 1860 I can weave 20, 6 foot long scarves an hour, a modern loom can weave about 80 an hour. Woven fabric rates vary from 4 to 10 yards an hour on the 1860 looms and up to 40 yards an hour on modern looms.
The problem facing manufacturers is not production but how to sell the product, if people don't earn or have the cash they don't buy products as they are preoccupied with basic survival, this is what is now happening in Greece and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe.
I also work in building construction. Recently we built a house from bricks that were collected from a building rubble dump as the client hadn't the cash to buy new bricks, we cleaned them up and reused them, we even collected steel reinforcing bars from a demolition site.Time has become unimportant, its the basic availability of work that counts now.
This is not the 3rd world but we are using their techniques.


Everything will come crashing down and when it does it's gonna happen fast, it's only TIME now, we wait on
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shear will probably remain above average across much of the basin this year due to the strong subtropical ridge. This enhances the TUTT and ultimately increases wind shear. The #1 reason many storms during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season died out, especially in the Central and Eastern Atlantic, was due to the strong TUTT. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), the TUTT should not be as strong this season.

The truth to the fact is..
We won't be looking out east for many "promising" storms like 2007, we will most likely pull one or two storms out of the deep tropics this year, those who will likely be peak of the season, tropical storms. The other predicted 11 i have are mischeavious storms that impact Florida and the south east in the early portion of the season, then Texas and Louisiana in the Later, as well as Central America.
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Nice weather in Tallahasee, currently looking around florida state, should be back in GA tomorrow.
Back to school.... ughh.
why cant i just study math, science, and weather.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Indeed,for sure the EPAC will be much more active than in the past two seasons.

The feeling is mutual... to me. I don't think the EPAC will be amped like it normally would be with an incoming El Nino... The WPAC will pick up the EPAC's slack I believe though...

WPAC prediction:
29 Storms (average 31)

EPAC Prediction:
15 Named Storms (average 16)

Atlantic Prediction:
13 Named Storms (Active period: average 14)
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1030. hydrus
looks farther south then the last run.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The shear has picked back up in the Gulf region becuase of the Sub-tropical Jet stream streaming more north now... Its heading north. The ITCZ will be doing the same soon. The first wave tracking of the season should begin in a couple of weeks.

Shear will probably remain above average across much of the basin this year due to the strong subtropical ridge. This enhances the TUTT and ultimately increases wind shear. The #1 reason many storms during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season died out, especially in the Central and Eastern Atlantic, was due to the strong TUTT. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), the TUTT should not be as strong this season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
1028. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST April 9 2012
=====================================

Tropical Depression Near Midway Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.7N 176.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 18 knots.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh goody more rain, I'll take it, but i'd be willing to share it with the others now that we've improved.

I was trying to send it to you last year, now I need it back!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The shear has picked back up in the Gulf region becuase of the Sub-tropical Jet stream streaming more north now... Its heading north. The ITCZ will be doing the same soon. The first wave tracking of the season should begin in a couple of weeks.


Ready in SW Florida for the return of moisture, and hopefully an early start to the rainy season. We are bone dry down here!
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Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting:-1012. RTSplayer,
Off subject of weather but!!
Thank you for your comment, here's a bit of reality:-
I am amongst other things a highly experienced textile, woven fabric, designer, on our machines designed in 1860 I can weave 20, 6 foot long scarves an hour, a modern loom can weave about 80 an hour. Woven fabric rates vary from 4 to 10 yards an hour on the 1860 looms and up to 40 yards an hour on modern looms.
The problem facing manufacturers is not production but how to sell the product, if people don't earn or have the cash they don't buy products as they are preoccupied with basic survival, this is what is now happening in Greece and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe.


yes, that's the end of the cycle I suppose, but at the end of the day, the corporations will still own the patents to everything and get through somehow, or else the banks will foreclose on them or they'll buy one another out.

Owners and CEO types have enough money lying around somewhere that a recession doesn't really "hurt" them personally in any way. They may not make as much money as they'd prefer, but they still get to live like a king anyway.

So when all the smoke and mirrors clears, most of the same people will be sitting around on top, and largely un-phased, sure a few changes here and there.

Normal people don't have that luxury, and lose everything they own, and then end up on social security or some other program, and then have to listen to Republicans blame them for not trying hard enough.

I also work in building construction. Recently we built a house from bricks that were collected from a building rubble dump as the client hadn't the cash to buy new bricks, we cleaned them up and reused them, we even collected steel reinforcing bars from a demolition site.Time has become unimportant, its the basic availability of work that counts now.
This is not the 3rd world but we are using their techniques.


Good stuff.

If everyone did that, housing and construction prices would be lower, and we'd have less pollution to boot.


The housing market collapsed for several reasons, main three are:

1, they were over priced to begin with.

2, People buying bigger than was reasonable.

3, Trend of smaller families over the past 3 generations means that the number of new homes required is less and less. A couple generations ago it was like 5 to 10 kids per woman. Then it went to 2.3. Now it's still on the decline and may even below replacement, if not for immigration.


The home construction industry effects every other industry either directly or indirectly, because it's not just the labor jobs, but also the mining and harvesting and refining jobs for raw materials, and of course transports, and then manufacturing for appliances, carpeting, etc, etc.

Hurt the housing industry and of course you hurt lumber, bricks, concrete, steel, appliances, furniture, textiles and more.

I wouldn't know the exact numbers, but I figure it has to be at LEAST a couple jobs lost on average per house or apartment you don't build per year.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1505
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


The CPC must be expecting a hurricane for the Gulf or something... No relief for me though...


Oh goody more rain, I'll take it, but i'd be willing to share it with the others now that we've improved.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Look at those waters in the East Pacific! We'll be seeing some monsters out there this year.


Indeed,for sure the EPAC will be much more active than in the past two seasons.
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The shear has picked back up in the Gulf region becuase of the Sub-tropical Jet stream streaming more north now... Its heading north. The ITCZ will be doing the same soon. The first wave tracking of the season should begin in a couple of weeks.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Look at those waters in the East Pacific! We'll be seeing some monsters out there this year.

The waters in that location are pretty consistent from year to year. Even last year's La Niña did not cool the waters there down.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Look at these Gulf waters! For a season, most likely going to be focused closer to home, this is something you really don't want to see at all.

Yeah, it definitely does not bode well for United States Gulf Coast this season. Additionally, Gulf wind shear has generally been running below average, although it has risen slightly to normal levels in the past few days.

Vertical instability has dropped some as well.





That's probably because it is dry in the Gulf of Mexico now though, and will change when it gets moist.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Look at these Gulf waters! For a season, most likely going to be focused closer to home, this is something you really don't want to see at all.

Look at those waters in the East Pacific! We'll be seeing some monsters out there this year.
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Has anybody ever come across a problem with Google Chrome where after you close it, go do something else, and then pull it back up, it won't load?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
Look at these Gulf waters! For a season, most likely going to be focused closer to home, this is something you really don't want to see at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Noting:-1012. RTSplayer,
Off subject of weather but!!
Thank you for your comment, here's a bit of reality:-
I am amongst other things a highly experienced textile, woven fabric, designer, on our machines designed in 1860 I can weave 20, 6 foot long scarves an hour, a modern loom can weave about 80 an hour. Woven fabric rates vary from 4 to 10 yards an hour on the 1860 looms and up to 40 yards an hour on modern looms.
The problem facing manufacturers is not production but how to sell the product, if people don't earn or have the cash they don't buy products as they are preoccupied with basic survival, this is what is now happening in Greece and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe.
I also work in building construction. Recently we built a house from bricks that were collected from a building rubble dump as the client hadn't the cash to buy new bricks, we cleaned them up and reused them, we even collected steel reinforcing bars from a demolition site.Time has become unimportant, its the basic availability of work that counts now.
This is not the 3rd world but we are using their techniques.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.