CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

Share this Blog
38
+

Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 116 - 66

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Why is almost the whole southeast under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch?

Well, a good chunk anyways..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
looks like the east coast of florida is going to get a piece of this tonight also..notice they dont rule out a Tornado or two................................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1226 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-060100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1226 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM FORMING. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REACHING
AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR BY 6 TO 9 PM...POINTS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE BY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT AND
AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO ALLEVIATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL WILL BRING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
TO AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS
WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH. ALWAYS SWIM WITHIN SIGHT OF A
LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN
THE EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...BEFORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET. MOVEMENT WILL BE QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST. GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 KNOTS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND AN
ISOLATED WATERSPOUT WILL ALL BE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LINGERING DRY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN
THE DAY.

AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE POST-FRONTAL LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

$$

SEDLOCK/GUSEMAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
SCC027-085-051945-
/O.NEW.KCAE.SV.W.0055.120405T1919Z-120405T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
319 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN CLARENDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TURBEVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SOUTH SUMTER... AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME COMMUNITIES IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE TURBEVILLE AND CENTRAL
CROSSROADS

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOLL FREE 1 877 6 3
3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3380 7994 3377 7999 3374 7999 3393 8022
3401 8007 3401 8003 3405 8000 3400 7990
3398 7990 3394 7997 3389 7994 3389 7989
3389 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 260DEG 11KT 3396 8011

$$

SJN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


CAPE



Supercell Composite




Lifted Index
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 051746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODELS VERY POOR HANDLING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF AND
EXPECTED CONVECTION TONIGHT. COMPLEX SITUATION OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG U/L LOW TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ONLY BE IN THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG U/L FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT U/L
DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAKER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND CREATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING WILL BE THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE
EQUATION AS AN MCS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
MOVE OVER THE NATURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT AND PUSH EAST OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE AND WILL FORECAST
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
Man its getting real humid outside right now,when that colder air hits all this...boom tonight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 051746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODELS VERY POOR HANDLING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF AND
EXPECTED CONVECTION TONIGHT. COMPLEX SITUATION OVERNIGHT AS A
STRONG U/L LOW TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ONLY BE IN THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG U/L FORCING AND SIGNIFICANT U/L
DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAKER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS AND CREATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING WILL BE THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE
EQUATION AS AN MCS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
MOVE OVER THE NATURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT AND PUSH EAST OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER DRIER
AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE AND WILL FORECAST
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

What tropical activity are you talking about?
The mansoon trough is active west of Colombia. Last year the rain season started late out there and this year its starting a lot earlyer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest Miami NWS Discussion

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE MOVE
INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVEL OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING, BUT THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT ARE PROGGED
TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. STILL, CONDITIONS ARE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL,
ESPECIALLY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE INCREASING TO
2500 J/KG, LIFTED INDICES DROP TO -8C TO -9C, AND A DRY LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. TIMING IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, AS THE CURRENT MCS
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF MAY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN UNDER THAT SCENARIO, ANOTHER AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
THE LOOP CURRENT AND PUSH EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. USING AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH, WE WILL
CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND NAPLES
AREA FROM 06-12Z, AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
12Z- 18Z FRIDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2009 as an analogue huh? Time to bookmark all the Pacific typhoon pages as that's where the fun will be at!
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
107. afj3
Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
933 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-06044 5-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
933 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE,
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE. STORMS LATE TONIGHT
COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

TORNADOES: SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No offense to the science of meteorology, but a butterfly in China can be observed to fly circles around Dr. Gray and his team; and I hear the butterflies in China are choking on U.S.

For upon her wings are the eyes of the earth, seeing the unfolding of every birth.

From above the trees and beyond sky, to the state of confusion what it denies.

Never before found such a plight that befell them that are without sight.

Now see before you the industry of sin, and return by fury the fallacy of men.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
105. afj3

Quoting Ameister12:

Bowing segments (also known as Bow Echos) are associated with strong lines of storms. The get their name from their archers bow like shape. They often produce very damaging straight line winds and some times tornadoes.
Thank you! The NWS said they are possible in South Florida either tonight or tomorrow. 
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
104. afj3

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's a line of thunderstorm that develops a "bowing shape" which means part of the line sort of moves ahead of the rest of the line while still staying attatched to it (if that made any sense)
They typically produce very strong non tornadic winds, sometimes over 100mph.
Thank you! They said they are possible in South Florida tonight and Friday. That's kind of rare down here....I think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting belizeit:
I am expecting we'll see tropical activity in the atlantic early then last year and we just might see a storm before June . The east pacific has some tropical activity already.

What tropical activity are you talking about?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting afj3:
Afternoon everyone. Quick question: What are bowing segments?

Bowing segments (also known as Bow Echos) are associated with strong lines of storms. They get their name from their archers bow like shape. They often produce very damaging straight line winds and some times tornadoes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Without including 2005, the average of the remaining 4 neutral years on Dr.Masters' list is:
60divided-by4 or 15 named storms
33divided-by4 or ~8 hurricanes
18divided-by4 or 4to5 majors
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I see some purple showing up 70mph winds
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC047-SCC043-051-067-052000-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0021.120405T1901Z-120405T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
301 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PEE DEE CROSSROADS TO 8 MILES WEST OF DONGOLA...AND MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
PEE DEE CROSSROADS...
HORRY...
HOMEWOOD...

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME
OR BUSINESS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hi Largo, I got no rain last night some flashes of lightning but no rain on the eastside of FL.
ok, maybe tonight..getting real breezy here now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-0 65-052115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
503 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
LATE THIS MORNING...THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS AND MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING BUT SLOWLY END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

...WIND AND SEAS IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SPEEDS EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON MUCH OF THE GULF
WATERS.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS WORKING SATURDAY WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REACHING CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

09/RKR


Hi Largo, I got no rain last night some flashes of lightning but no rain on the eastside of FL.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting thunderbug91:
I have noticed the Tampa Bay area has raised the tornado risk zone from 2% to 5%....


Yeah I just noticed that. Interesting as the line that was in the gulf fell apart. Maybe it's because of the line forming in southern AL, GA, & FL Panhandle.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
heads up east Florida....SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
154 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-052200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
154 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

.NOW...
A RAPIDLY MOVING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THREATS INCLUDE 50 TO 60
MPH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT.

THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR AROUND 6 TO 9 PM...POINTS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE BY 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT AND AREAS SOUTH OF THIS
LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND MONITOR THE WEATHER IF HEADING OUT THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.


&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am expecting we'll see tropical activity in the atlantic early then last year and we just might see a storm before June . The east pacific has some tropical activity already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thunderbug91:
I have noticed the Tampa Bay area has raised the tornado risk zone from 2% to 5%....
yes and its getting real breezy here this afternoon, guess we Will get the real windy conditions tonight, wont take much to strengthen this wind..another late night watching and waiting..stay safe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
why is everyone saying the 2012 season will be el nino when in fact 65% of models show neutral? i disagree with this below average activity i can agree we will have less than 2010 and 2011 but about 14 named storms looks realistic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have noticed the Tampa Bay area has raised the tornado risk zone from 2% to 5%....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-052115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
503 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
LATE THIS MORNING...THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS AND MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING BUT SLOWLY END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

...WIND AND SEAS IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SPEEDS EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO LATE SATURDAY OR
EARLY SUNDAY...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON MUCH OF THE GULF
WATERS.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS WORKING SATURDAY WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REACHING CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

09/RKR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting afj3:
Afternoon everyone. Quick question: What are bowing segments?

It's a line of thunderstorm that develops a "bowing shape" which means part of the line sort of moves ahead of the rest of the line while still staying attatched to it (if that made any sense)
They typically produce very strong non tornadic winds, sometimes over 100mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season...
...2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10degreesN and 20degreesN were near average to below average in March 2012...
"

Comparing their SeaSurfaceTemperature and 26degreeCelsiusIsothermDepth charts, there seems to be only a marginally discernable difference in the MDR between 2012 and 2011, with 2012 being only slightly cooler. ie The difference seems to be of the level that can easily be made up in a week or two.

Considering that solar activity is on the upswing compared to last year, what is CSU "seeing" that makes them think that the MDR won't be as warm as or warmer than last year by the time HurricaneSeason arrives?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


yeah?

When's it going to start?



It's going to start in, ...., er, about, ...., er, soon.

Yeh, that's it! Soon. It's going to start soon.

Or maybe a bit later if it doesn't start soon. Yeh, that's the answer.... Sooner or later. But it's going to happen.... Trust me.....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Skeptic33:


Well, 1930s was a lot worse.



Link


Why are you comparing March of one year with August of another?

----
edit: Oh, I see. It's because you got your information from Real (Faked) Science....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
211 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

SCZ055-051915-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
211 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 210 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
BETWEEN RHEMS...YAUHANNAH AND OUTLAND...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH TOWARD
HIGHWAY 261.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE YAUHANNAH AND RURAL LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 261 BETWEEN OUTLAND AND YAUHANNAH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS IN UP TO 45 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
PASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3362 7940 3371 7939 3370 7924 3370 7925
3370 7921 3370 7918 3369 7918 3368 7915
3366 7915 3356 7917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 268DEG 13KT 3365 7931

$$

SRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


The natural gas discussion is so stupid it's hilarious. There will be a record amount of nat gas inventories by July if it keeps building. The price isn't quadrupling to 8$/M any time soon.

Never mind there is plenty of shut in gas in the shale formations that can be brought back pretty quickly.


I agree that price quadrupling isn't likely in the next few years. But at current prices most of the drilling rigs have left the natural gas fields. Until the current supply gut is used up and prices rise some they won't return.

The futures market sees NG prices doubling over the next five years.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yes we had a system similar to this roll thru late last March (2011) and did tremendous amounts os damage across C FL. Some of the wind gust were clocked at 100 mph. I believe that was measured in Winter Park. Many areas had no power for days.
HI stormtracker..any wind and rain out by you last night?..we got good rain and a lil wind..nothing serious..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The HAMWeather temperature records map is starting to look like a graphic from the old "Seven Days" television show.

I can hear the theme music playing again!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
81. afj3
Afternoon everyone. Quick question: What are bowing segments?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skeptic33:


Pfft. I predict that we will start seeing a cooling trend soon for 20 years...


You bought a Trane?

Added reference - Trane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tampahurricane:
So what should we expect here in the Tampabay area, and about what time should we be expecting it?


4 to 6 hours at least?

Hard to say what, if any you get, because the tail of the system goes out of radar range and you can't exactly tell how strong it is down there right now, and infrared satellite almost always over-estimates this sort of thing.

Edit:

Um, radar loop I was using was old and hadn't been refreshed. It's a bit closer than I realized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am also wondering about the timing for here in the Orlando area. I have a class from 6:00 - 9:00 pm and it would really be disappointing if I had to miss the squall line!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skeptic33:


Pfft. I predict that we will start seeing a cooling trend soon for 20 years...


yeah?

When's it going to start?

That whole high records vs low records thing isn't exactly favoring your forecast this year...not by a very long margin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So what should we expect here in the Tampabay area, and about what time should we be expecting it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:


Warmer winters due to global warming may ironically provide a small negative feedback to global warming itself, by reducing demand for fuels used in heating.


Pfft. I predict that we will start seeing a cooling trend soon for 20 years...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


Well, 1930s was a lot worse.



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


If we get another Allison here in Houston, that will be a major flood problem


Ahh good memories out of that... Not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


The natural gas discussion is so stupid it's hilarious. There will be a record amount of nat gas inventories by July if it keeps building. The price isn't quadrupling to 8$/M any time soon.

Never mind there is plenty of shut in gas in the shale formations that can be brought back pretty quickly.


Warmer winters due to global warming may ironically provide a small negative feedback to global warming itself, by reducing demand for fuels used in heating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr. Forbes also increased his area for today and tomorrow as well for tornado threat.

Thursday April 5
AL - 2
FL panhandle, northeast - 2
GA - 2
LA southeast - 2
MS northeast - 2
MS southeast - 2 to 3
NC southwest - 2
SC - 2
TN central, south - 2
Other areas - less than 1

Friday April 6
CO extreme east - 2 or less
FL central, south - 2
KS extreme west - 2 or less
KS central night - 2 or less
ND west - 2 or less
NE west - 2 or less
NE south-central night - 2 or less
OK panhandle - 2 or less
OK north-central night - 2 or less
SD west - 2 or less
TX eastern panhandle - 2
TX southwest near Fort Stockton - 2 or less
Other areas - less than 1
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting hydrus:
You went thru Hell..Literally....Total depressions 10
Total storms 7
Hurricanes 4
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 1
Total fatalities 66
Total damage $26 billion (1992 USD)


My GF never recovered; even though we were not in the house during the storm, she had raised her son there (he stayed with his Father in Kendall but they were ok)and we lost everything in/at the house including her boat (I just lost my clothing, personal items, and cd/record collection and two guitars and amps)...She went into a deep depression and alcohol issues that lasted for years after Andrew, and, which caused the demise of our relationship the following year. This is why counseling is very important for survivors of Canes and other natural disasters because losing everything or surviving through such a traumatic experience can actually lead to PTSD issues...(Same applies to soldiers/war veterans/first-responders, etc.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
The gulf can be over 90 degrees. If there are no weather disturbances or 50 kts of shear, no canes.


I have been an amateur tropical weather tracker for the last 17 years and one point I have increasingly realized is that sea surface temperatures are not the main determining factor in development during the hurricane season. Adequately warm SSTs are a prerequisite for tropical development, but it is usually the other factors that really make or break a storm.

How are the prospects looking for severe weather in East Central Florida this evening?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looking at the vortex reminds me of naked swirls in some tropical storms. And ahead of it a squall line starting to take shape and bowing out, lightning and strong damaging winds are possible with this system. Maybe even some small hail as well.


Yes we had a system similar to this roll thru late last March (2011) and did tremendous amounts os damage across C FL. Some of the wind gust were clocked at 100 mph. I believe that was measured in Winter Park. Many areas had no power for days.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is our friend to many or not so much to some Joe Bastardi,but here he is with his discussion of the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Link



The natural gas discussion is so stupid it's hilarious. There will be a record amount of nat gas inventories by July if it keeps building. The price isn't quadrupling to 8$/M any time soon.

Never mind there is plenty of shut in gas in the shale formations that can be brought back pretty quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looking at the vortex reminds me of naked swirls in some tropical storms. And ahead of it a squall line starting to take shape and bowing out, lightning and strong damaging winds are possible with this system. Maybe even some small hail as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 116 - 66

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.