CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

GAZ103-104-052145-
440 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER AND SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF KIMBROUGH...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WEBSTER AND SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE KIMBROUGH...WESTON...LEVERETTS...
SEMINOLE...CENTERPOINT...PRESTON...DUMAS...SUMTER ...MADDOX...CROXTON
CROSSROADS...PLAINS...AMERICUS...FRIENDSHIP...SHI LOH AND CONCORD.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8440 3195 8444 3192 8445 3192 8465
3206 8464 3216 8465 3217 8464 3217 8455
3213 8452 3213 8444 3217 8442 3216 8417
3191 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 265DEG 13KT 3202 8474

$$
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think the arctic ice melting would cause a lot more harm than good though- as you said, it would be convenient for some, but not so for many
yes i kinda agree with you there..companies look at profit, not what harm something causes, an ice free artic would raise sea levels 4-10 feet they say..imagine...having a storm come in..with THOSE water levels the norm?..whew..costal cites all over the world would be suffering
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I don't care if a strong El nino will hold the storms down.I'll be looking out for the big bad one of the bunch that may cause some trouble.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15738
Quoting LargoFl:
actually there are some worldwide who would LOVE the artic to be ice fee..shipping companies for instance, new ice free shipping lanes that you dont have to go around, now you can go thru etc

I think the arctic ice melting would cause a lot more harm than good though- as you said, it would be convenient for some, but not so for many
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Quoting Ameister12:
Possible tornado in South Carolina.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BOILING SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
COWPENS AND MAYO.
THICKETTY.
GAFFNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO IS LIKELY DEVELOPING. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A HOUSE OR OFFICE BUILDING. PLACE AS MANY FLOORS
AND WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 8171 3503 8159 3492 8196 3504 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 246DEG 22KT 3501 8189

$$
here we go again
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Quoting Skeptic33:


So.... what exactly are we worried about Arctic ocean being completely ice free? What does CO2 have to do with anything relating to temperature?


"LinkPrevious climate warmth
So far the ice cores can only provide us a glimpse into the Eemian warm period. But we can already tell that Eemian climate was significantly warmer than the climate of the current Holocene interglacial - probably about 5�C warmer. As ice from the Eemian period (albeit disturbed) has been found at all drill sites, we also know that the Greenland ice sheet did not melt away entirely during the warmth of the Eemian. Close analysis of %u03B418O values in the Eemian ice does indeed suggest that the Eemian Greenland ice sheet was not dramatically smaller than today. "
actually there are some worldwide who would LOVE the artic to be ice fee..shipping companies for instance, new ice free shipping lanes that you dont have to go around, now you can go thru etc
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


My GF never recovered; even though we were not in the house during the storm, she had raised her son there (he stayed with his Father in Kendall but they were ok)and we lost everything in/at the house including her boat (I just lost my clothing, personal items, and cd/record collection and two guitars and amps)...She went into a deep depression and alcohol issues that lasted for years after Andrew, and, which caused the demise of our relationship the following year. This is why counseling is very important for survivors of Canes and other natural disasters because losing everything or surviving through such a traumatic experience can actually lead to PTSD issues...(Same applies to soldiers/war veterans/first-responders, etc.)
I always feel sad when I hear what happened to them. I did fine during Andrew. Charley and Jeanne are a completely different story. I may WU-mail you on this. I witnessed a lot of the same things you mentioned here.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19604
Quoting Skeptic33:


So.... what exactly are we worried about Arctic ocean being completely ice free? What does CO2 have to do with anything relating to temperature?


Nice, colorful graphic. Great eye appeal. .... Did you make it yourself? I do not see it being accredited to anyone.
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Quoting Skeptic33:


So.... what exactly are we worried about Arctic ocean being completely ice free? What does CO2 have to do with anything relating to temperature?

CO2 is a greenhouse gas- the excessive amounts of greenhouse gases in our environment trap a lot of heat, hence the term greenhouse. This causes the earth to warm. Warm temperatures are notorious for melting ice.
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Quoting NativeSun:
If it's neutral I would think there would be more storms than CSU is predicting with the warmer water temps in the Gulf and Western Atlantic,higher vertical instability and maybe a negative to nuetral NAO.




That's what I think... They are counting on a stronger el nino than will most likely occur.

Unfortunately the NAO, which is very negative now, appears it will go into another extended positive stretch a few days from now...
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So.... what exactly are we worried about Arctic ocean being completely ice free? What does CO2 have to do with anything relating to temperature?


"LinkPrevious climate warmth
So far the ice cores can only provide us a glimpse into the Eemian warm period. But we can already tell that Eemian climate was significantly warmer than the climate of the current Holocene interglacial - probably about 5C warmer. As ice from the Eemian period (albeit disturbed) has been found at all drill sites, we also know that the Greenland ice sheet did not melt away entirely during the warmth of the Eemian. Close analysis of %u03B418O values in the Eemian ice does indeed suggest that the Eemian Greenland ice sheet was not dramatically smaller than today. "
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Quoting RTSplayer:


That ensemble mean is not an El Nino at all.

It goes neutral on the El Nino side, and then goes back to neutral/La Nina.

Heck, it's even perfectly neutral through the end of August and all of September and October.


I wonder which, if any, individual models tend to consistently beat the average for skill?

I guess we'll just have to wait and see
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is probably one developing.


No, mesovorticies are small rotational features.

Thanks much 13
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If it's neutral I would think there would be more storms than CSU is predicting with the warmer water temps in the Gulf and Western Atlantic,higher vertical instability and maybe a negative to nuetral NAO.



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Quoting nigel20:


That ensemble mean is not an El Nino at all.

It goes neutral on the El Nino side, and then goes back to neutral/La Nina.

Heck, it's even perfectly neutral through the end of August and all of September and October.


I wonder which, if any, individual models tend to consistently beat the average for skill?
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Quoting nigel20:

Do you think there's a tornado?

There is probably one developing.

Quoting nigel20:

That's the same thing as Mesovortices right?

No, mesovorticies are small rotational features.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mesoscale Convective System, an organized complex of thunderstorms. They are many times associated with tropical cyclones. A squall line is an example of an MCS.

That's the same thing as Mesovortices right?
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"quiet" must be a relative term, because all of those analogue years (except for 2009) had a major landfalling hurricane in the US, and 2001 was Allison, dumping all that rain on TX.

so, even in a "quiet" year, it only takes one to make it memorable.
Still can't let our guard down.
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Quoting weatherh98:



Neutral it appears...

Yeah, that's what the CFS have been predicting for a little while
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mesoscale Convective System, an organized complex of thunderstorms. They are many times associated with tropical cyclones. A squall line is an example of an MCS.


Oh I see thanks 13 I gotta run to swim practice
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well-defined supercell with a hook echo in South Carolina currently.


Do you think there's a tornado?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Possible tornado in South Carolina.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BOILING SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
COWPENS AND MAYO.
THICKETTY.
GAFFNEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO IS LIKELY DEVELOPING. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A HOUSE OR OFFICE BUILDING. PLACE AS MANY FLOORS
AND WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS POSSIBLE.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 8171 3503 8159 3492 8196 3504 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 246DEG 22KT 3501 8189

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


What's MCS

Mesoscale Convective System, an organized complex of thunderstorms. They are many times associated with tropical cyclones. A squall line is an example of an MCS.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting nigel20:



Neutral it appears...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting Jedkins01:



The atmosphere is looking to be quite favorable for severe weather tonight. However, the one thing I am doubting is the lifting mechanisms to produce the thunderstorms in the first place. The MCS near Louisiana has just about completely fallen apart, and I think that was what was supposed to bring significant convection into the area tonight. It looks like the convective triggers(convergence) seem to be of biggest concern whether we will see significant activity or not.

It you noticed that is why the NWS only has our storm chances at 50% tonight despite increasing favorable atmosphere for convective and strong convective growth. Indeed this has been the major reason we have lacked in rain for a log time now. There frequently has been a lack of triggering to to force convective development.


That being said I wouldn't get your hopes about tonight until we can see there is a significant amount of thunderstorms approaching offshore. Unlike last night, anything that develops shouldn't weaken as much as it did, but unlike last night there isn't a powerful MCS in the gulf headed this way. There was some decent action earlier but it has fallen apart which does concern me somewhat.

I am honestly not impressed with our chances of thunderstorms at the moment for tonight with all being said, hopefully we can get something to trigger activity later, the upper disturbance approaching right now is looking a bit unhealthy.


What's MCS
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Don't give up hope yet West Central FL and SW FL.

Link

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Well-defined supercell with a hook echo in South Carolina currently.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125711
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes the nws also is uncertain, we'll wait and see, would be great if we Do get some more rain, i notice most of the severer storm watches are along the east coast of florida today..


Yeah the models have performed poorly with this system as well as the NWS has noted.

Ironically the best upper support for convection may have already come and gone(the shortwave with its associated MCS last night). We just didn't have the needed ingredients to keep the line strong. Although it did make it way farther then model forecasts. All models had it completely dissipating way before reaching Florida.


For now it looks like our best shot for getting some action will now probably be overnight because the current MCS approaching completely collapsed. Hopefully the colder air aloft from the upper low and the approaching cold front will fire a new cluster of thunderstorms over the warm loop current overnight in the gulf.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



Hahahaha.

Hey, how do you do video embedding on this site? Most of the time I try it doesn't work.

On youtube..."share" --> "embed" --> "Use old embed code"
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
April 5, 2012
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Not sure if this was posted already but I'm posting it anyways...

From Ruskin,FL NWS:
Complex situation later this afternoon and overnight as a few separate areas of thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather will push across the forecast area. Although the following times are the best windows of opportunity for severe weather, they are by no means all inclusive. There could be strong to severe thunderstorms a few hours either side of the times given. The main threat will be strong damaging winds and hail. However an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
A cold front will approach west central and southwest Florida this evening and move across the region tonight. An area of showers and thunderstorms approaching the Florida panhandle will push east today with additional storms possibly developing ahead of and merging with the line. Another area of storms will likely develop west of Tampa Bay and push onshore later tonight. Strong upper level energy will create a threat for a few storms to be severe across the entire forecast area late this afternoon and overnight. The stronger storms will begin to threaten areas north of Brooksville between 4 and 10 PM this evening...and will spread south and east across the area through the night. Timing further south is more difficult as there may be a few separate areas of storms which have yet to develop. The Tampa Bay area will likely see the best threat of severe weather between 10 PM and 4 AM...and the Fort Myers area between 2 AM and 8 AM.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
HAHA! I have mastered the art of video embedding.

These guys had it figured it out long before us....;)








Hahahaha.

Hey, how do you do video embedding on this site? Most of the time I try it doesn't work.
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120 blsealevel: Mixed blessing: Cleaning up pollutants fueled hurricanes...

"While cool phases [that the study correlated with air pollution] correspond to periods with lower hurricane activity in the North Atlantic," Booth said, "they are also linked with widespread persistent African drought [and SouthAmerica] (1970s and 1980s) -- with all the associated food and mortality related impacts."

And if there is a causal effect as well as a correlation, that air pollution also masked the effect of GlobalWarming on hurricane development during the '70s and '80s. ie We may not be experiencing an especially active period for hurricanes (ie within the historically normal statistical variation), but rather we are now finally experiencing the unmasked new normal.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
No offense to the CSU staff or Dr. Masters, but personally I would put much stock in this forecast at the moment.

Besides, several of the most destructive storms in U.S. history didn't even form in that region of the ocean. They formed in the Bahamas or "popped up" in the Gulf. Which as post 39 shows, parts of the northern Gulf are already 1C to 2C above last year, and 1C to 3C above the long term average.

The mid-lattitude global warming signature is showing itself very strong on the Reynolds SST product in both the Gulf and Eastern Seaboard.



Notice, there are only a few very tiny "cool anomalies" in excess of 1C. most of the cool anomaly is probably less than 0.5C below average.

Not to mention, most significant storms don't actually form east of 40W anyway.

So really, the entire basis of their calculation is sort of unfounded.

The region you usually see everything named or at least classified as TD is all warmer than average.


There is much more to tropical cyclone formation and intensification than merely SST temps. If it was that simple then tropical cyclones wouldn't have people with MS's and PHD's in meteorology scratching their heads sometimes.

You can't just look at SST's being above normal as a reason to doubt the tropical cyclone prediction.



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Quoting hydrus:
Damage from Andrew..I must mention that these are my old stomping grounds...Hard to look at these even now...Most of the homes in Country Walk, a suburban development southwest of Miami, were leveled.Hurricane Andrew - Buildings on the Deering Estate Still-water marks from storm surge measured at 16.5 feet... That is one well built structure right there folks..No mistake about it.

Andrew packed a mega punch for a small hurricane....so did Charley as well
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
HAHA! I have mastered the art of video embedding.

These guys had it figured it out long before us....;)







Ahhhhhh, mannnnn! Now the blog will never be the same! LOL

Great choice in your first embedding of a video!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



The atmosphere is looking to be quite favorable for severe weather tonight. However, the one thing I am doubting is the lifting mechanisms to produce the thunderstorms in the first place. The MCS near Louisiana has just about completely fallen apart, and I think that was what was supposed to bring significant convection into the area tonight. It looks like the convective triggers(convergence) seem to be of biggest concern whether we will see significant activity or not.

It you noticed that is why the NWS only has our storm chances at 50% tonight despite increasing favorable atmosphere for convective and strong convective growth. Indeed this has been the major reason we have lacked in rain for a log time now. There frequently has been a lack of triggering to to force convective development.


That being said I wouldn't get your hopes about tonight until we can see there is a significant amount of thunderstorms approaching offshore. Unlike last night, anything that develops shouldn't weaken as much as it did, but unlike last night there isn't a powerful MCS in the gulf headed this way. There was some decent action earlier but it has fallen apart which does concern me somewhat.
yes the nws also is uncertain, we'll wait and see, would be great if we Do get some more rain, i notice most of the severer storm watches are along the east coast of florida today..
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Dead dolphins: from oil exploration?
Those acoustic*shocks have about the same effect as fishing with dynamite.

* Used to develop sonogram maps of the local sub-seabed geology
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
351 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

SCC041-089-052030-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120405T2030Z/
FLORENCE SC-WILLIAMSBURG SC-
351 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSBURG AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORENCE COUNTIES...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED FROM NEAR NIXONVILLE TO OLANTA...OR 10 MILES WEST OF LAKE
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HEBRON
CROSSROADS...HEBRON...SCRANTON...CADES AND KINGSTREE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3400 7990 3387 7958 3355 7976 3374 7999
3377 8000 3383 7991 3388 7989 3388 7994
3390 7996 3395 7998 3399 7990 3405 8001
3405 8000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 306DEG 16KT 3383 7991

$$

SRP
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Quoting LargoFl:
Man its getting real humid outside right now,when that colder air hits all this...boom tonight



The atmosphere is looking to be quite favorable for severe weather tonight. However, the one thing I am doubting is the lifting mechanisms to produce the thunderstorms in the first place. The MCS near Louisiana has just about completely fallen apart, and I think that was what was supposed to bring significant convection into the area tonight. It looks like the convective triggers(convergence) seem to be of biggest concern whether we will see significant activity or not.

It you noticed that is why the NWS only has our storm chances at 50% tonight despite increasing favorable atmosphere for convective and strong convective growth. Indeed this has been the major reason we have lacked in rain for a log time now. There frequently has been a lack of triggering to to force convective development.


That being said I wouldn't get your hopes about tonight until we can see there is a significant amount of thunderstorms approaching offshore. Unlike last night, anything that develops shouldn't weaken as much as it did, but unlike last night there isn't a powerful MCS in the gulf headed this way. There was some decent action earlier but it has fallen apart which does concern me somewhat.

I am honestly not impressed with our chances of thunderstorms at the moment for tonight with all being said, hopefully we can get something to trigger activity later, the upper disturbance approaching right now is looking a bit unhealthy.
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HAHA! I have mastered the art of video embedding.

These guys had it figured it out long before us....;)





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Whattt!!

http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/05/1103 6451-mixed-blessing-cleaning-up-pollutants-fueled- hurricanes-study-finds?lite
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Quoting aspectre:

Without including 2005, the average of the remaining 4 neutral years on Dr.Masters' list is:
60divided-by4 or 15 named storms
33divided-by4 or ~8 hurricanes
18divided-by4 or 4to5 majors

Good evening all! That's some nice stats...the neutral years had more storms on average since 95
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 148 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-131-13 3-060200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0148.120405T1900Z-120406T0200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HOLMES
JACKSON LEON LIBERTY
WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON
$$
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why is almost the whole southeast under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch?

Well, a good chunk anyways..

that front coming is strong and the weather service is getting a bit worried i think, just my guess but they are unsure just how strong its going to be tonight, so out go the warnings..best to be safe than sorry i guess..
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Why is almost the whole southeast under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch?

Well, a good chunk anyways..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.