CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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I think the blog is dead. :(
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070859
SPC AC 070859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD...SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER
THE ERN STATES THROUGH D5/WED. MEANWHILE...THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...WHILE THE UPSTREAM ERN PACIFIC
TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND SUPPORTED BY A PROGRESSIVE BASAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA BY THE START OF D5/WED. THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
D5 BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS /30 PERCENT OR GREATER/ ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON D4/TUE OR D5/WED...THOUGH SOME SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON D4 ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
ON D3/MON. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON D5 OVER THE SRN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH NWD
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THE D4/D5 BASAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS
MAINTAINING A MORE NRN BIAS...EACH MODEL SHOWS STRONGER SWLY FLOW
ACROSS OK/KS DURING D6/THU ATOP STRONGER SLY LLJ. THESE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
GIVEN MOISTURE RETURN SUPPORTS A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA
ON D6/THU ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS.

BEYOND D6...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY
COULD DEVELOP ON D8/SAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANOTHER REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA.

..PETERS.. 04/07/2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I can has +1?

No, you can have +10. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lyrics, what lyrics?
Ohhhhhh, you mean that noise in the background, right? ;)


Yep. That noise. XD
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting percylives:
For those interested in such things the past week has seen 1651 new or tied high temperature records in the US while there have been 50 low temperature records tied or bested, a 33 to 1 ratio. The heat continues. This is according to the HAMweather site.

On a walk in my woods on Wednesday it was like August. It is also getting pretty dry here in Central VA. Having to water daily.

I really don't like the feel of this at all.


Yesterday was one of the most balanced days of the year, and still it favored hot records slightly, but not statistically significant.

If I remember right, there has only been about 7 days or so with more cold records than hot records in about the past 6 months.

At one point last week there was a 64 to 1 ratio on one day, and I think a 39 to 1 ratio for the entire week! Hots to colds, that is.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
For those interested in such things the past week has seen 1651 new or tied high temperature records in the US while there have been 50 low temperature records tied or bested, a 33 to 1 ratio. The heat continues. This is according to the HAMweather site.

On a walk in my woods on Wednesday it was like August. It is also getting pretty dry here in Central VA. Having to water daily.

I really don't like the feel of this at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone. I got an urgent message this morning from my older brother. He said we have to save the planet, as it's the only one that has chocolate. Which started my day with a laugh.

What I wish is that we have:

Wild and wonderful storms with no injuries or deaths, Fabulous lightning with red sprites and blue rays that only hit targets that can't be harmed;
Green flashes with every sunset over water;
Marvelous winds that blow the cloud tops off the mountains leaving beautiful sharp-edged lenticulars;
Pounding waves so surfers can find joy and a great ride;
Soaking rains to nourish the earth;
And that all of us have the eyes and knowledge to understand the beauty of the earth and its weather.

Happy Weekend. I know this group can add to my list.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This article discusses how increased oil/natural gas production may be causing an increase in small midwest earthquakes. Interestingly it seems to deny that fracking has anything to do with quakes...

Link
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
Quoting sunlinepr:
This may be one of the last swells of the season...







Indeed. While they subside,the surfers are delighted.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14209


look at the loop by Iowa, Missouri , Kansas and Nebraska.
Havent seen that one before.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
650. Tropicsweatherpr
11:30 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The SPC has an area highlighted for severe weather on Day 6 (Thursday)

Here's todays's outlook...



Good morning.

Here is the discussion of days 4-8:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD...SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH LINGERING OVER
THE ERN STATES THROUGH D5/WED. MEANWHILE...THE ROCKIES RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES...WHILE THE UPSTREAM ERN PACIFIC
TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND SUPPORTED BY A PROGRESSIVE BASAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING SRN CA BY THE START OF D5/WED. THIS LATTER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
D5 BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS /30 PERCENT OR GREATER/ ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON D4/TUE OR D5/WED...THOUGH SOME SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON D4 ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED
ON D3/MON. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON D5 OVER THE SRN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WITH NWD
EXTENT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THE D4/D5 BASAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE GFS
MAINTAINING A MORE NRN BIAS...EACH MODEL SHOWS STRONGER SWLY FLOW
ACROSS OK/KS DURING D6/THU ATOP STRONGER SLY LLJ. THESE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
GIVEN MOISTURE RETURN SUPPORTS A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA
ON D6/THU ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KS.

BEYOND D6...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY
COULD DEVELOP ON D8/SAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANOTHER REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA.

..PETERS.. 04/07/2012
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14209
649. GeorgiaStormz
11:26 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
no major severe weather for the next 15 days per the GFS.

Could be some minor events though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
648. WxGeekVA
11:16 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting BobWallace:


That's not sarcasm. That's dishonesty.

The Winter that Wasn't apparently caused economic activity earlier than normal. Warm weather put a lot of people back to work. Business picked up in January and February more than expected. Businesses hired.

March employment numbers are down a bit from what was expected, apparently, because those people started working in January and February.

If you look at the first three month average for this year job creation has been quite good. We averaged over 240,000 jobs per month. Anything over 175,000 is considered good.



Misread the article in my tiredness. Apologies.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
647. MAweatherboy1
10:54 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
The SPC has an area highlighted for severe weather on Day 6 (Thursday)

Here's todays's outlook...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
646. blsealevel
10:46 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Which plants will survive droughts, climate change?

This new study showed that the saltiness of cells in plant leaves can explain where plants live and the kinds of plants that dominate ecosystems around the world. The team is working with collaborators at the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Gardens in Yunnan, China, to develop a new method for rapidly measuring turgor loss point across a large number of species and make possible the critical assessment of drought tolerance for thousands of species for the first time.

Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
645. LargoFl
10:39 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
227 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FURTHER WEST EARLY
TODAY.

.WITH CANADIAN AIR REMAINING IN PLACE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR EAST.
ANY REMAINING AREAS IN THE FAR WEST CAN EXPECT PATCHY FROST.

INZ040>042-049-057-065-072-071300-
/O.CON.KIND.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120407T1300Z/
MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENRY-RUSH-DECATUR-JENN INGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...MUNCIE
227 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS: SENSITIVE OUTDOOR AND NEWLY BUDDED PLANTS MAY BE
DAMAGED OR KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD FROST
IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY HARM OR KILL SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37821
644. weatherh98
9:12 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
when yall get up, analyze this.

negative strengthening trough..
maybe dangerous:


i have no faith in this since it is past 8 days by a little bit.


I would try to analyze it bUt I can't see straight at 4:12 in the morning...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6468
643. OracleDeAtlantis
9:04 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
when yall get up, analyze this.

negative strengthening trough..
maybe dangerous:


i have no faith in this since it is past 8 days by a little bit.
Indeed, that's a setup for another Eastern disaster in the making. If it pans out, then the pattern repeats very similar to last year.

We had large hail unusually close to the southeastern coastline, not seen in the memories of older people. Also, far more strong tornadoes in North Carolina than typical. I crossed four fresh tornado paths in the middle of North Carolina last year, driving a distance of only about three hours. It was unprecedented in my lifetime. Astonishing is a better word to describe it.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517
642. allancalderini
6:27 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I decided to restart my cyclone animations and switch from color infrared to black and white infrared. Additionally, I plan on doing every system that attained tropical storm status or higher from 2003 to 2011.

Subtropical Ana 2003
Tropical Storm Bill 2003
Hurricane Claudette 2003
Hurricane Danny 2003
Hurricane Erika 2003
Hurricane Fabian 2003

Actually you should change Ana to tropical storm.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
641. Some1Has2BtheRookie
5:05 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well RTSplayer when the good Doctor wants to know who finished melting the polar ice cap, I'm going to have to rat you out. What ever she was singing I was loving it.


I could not understand what she was was saying, so I muted the volume. I found that this has no impact on her performance, even though she has a lovely voice.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
640. gordydunnot
4:55 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Well RTSplayer when the good Doctor wants to know who finished melting the polar ice cap, I'm going to have to rat you out. What ever she was singing I was loving it.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
639. GeorgiaStormz
4:48 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
when yall get up, analyze this.

negative strengthening trough..
maybe dangerous:


i have no faith in this since it is past 8 days by a little bit.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9724
638. Some1Has2BtheRookie
4:30 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Does this count as weather related?


Certainly it does. Should you try to bring that home, I suspect that you will receive more hail than you imagined would be possible. Not to mention, a lot of stormy nights will follow.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
637. KoritheMan
4:04 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting wxgeek723:


Sounds like you're thinking 2006-esque timing with that one. Maybe it will be one of those years where the A pops up early in June or July and then we wait in anguish for the B storm until August?


Nah, thinking we'll see Beryl much earlier.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
636. Barefootontherocks
4:03 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting swampdooogggg:

What possesses you to continually show models 10 days off into the future. The ECMWF has been showing that system all week. Who cares? It's 10 days off. I wouldn't put much weight on that.
I care.

Some people here actually enjoy looking at models and seeing if the weather verifies. Others of us are too lazy to look at the models and depend on bloggers like TA13 to post what the models are showing.

Still others of us always have our antennae out for the next troll handle and the next and the next.

Sixteen separate April 3 tors identified in NWS Ft. Worth area so far.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18530
635. hurricanejunky
4:01 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Not sure if this was already posted. I'm sure some here may be interested in this...
Link
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
634. nigel20
4:01 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Good night all and enjoy your Easter weekend!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
633. BobWallace
3:58 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
On a for-real note, the government is now directly relating problems in the economy with good weather. Because bad weather obviously helps the economy...

SARCASM FLAG: ON


Could good weather portend bad news for the economic recovery?




That's not sarcasm. That's dishonesty.

The Winter that Wasn't apparently caused economic activity earlier than normal. Warm weather put a lot of people back to work. Business picked up in January and February more than expected. Businesses hired.

March employment numbers are down a bit from what was expected, apparently, because those people started working in January and February.

If you look at the first three month average for this year job creation has been quite good. We averaged over 240,000 jobs per month. Anything over 175,000 is considered good.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
632. wxgeek723
3:55 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I do expect to see an early start though, possibly as early as next month with the way things are now. Not to mention most El Nino/warm neutral years tend to start early and end early.

The real question is, will we have any particularly dangerous storms come up the heart of the Caribbean and ride up the US Gulf Coast? Or even a similar storm moving through the Bahamas and up the east coast? Questions, questions.


Sounds like you're thinking 2006-esque timing with that one. Maybe it will be one of those years where the A pops up early in June or July and then we wait in anguish for the B storm until August?
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3545
631. nigel20
3:43 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The NAO is now at negative. Let's see how it will be by August and September to see if the MDR warms or not.

What's up tropicsweatherpr? Yeah..let's see
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
630. WxGeekVA
3:42 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Does this count as weather related?


Yes. *wink*
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
629. nigel20
3:39 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I do expect to see an early start though, possibly as early as next month with the way things are now. Not to mention most El Nino/warm neutral years tend to start early and end early.

The real question is, will we have any particularly dangerous storms come up the heart of the Caribbean and ride up the US Gulf Coast? Or even a similar storm moving through the Bahamas and up the east coast? Questions, questions.

Agreed!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
628. Tropicsweatherpr
3:39 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting nigel20:


The NAO is now at negative. Let's see how it will be by August and September to see if the MDR warms or not.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14209
626. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:36 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Next Friday and Saturday are showing potential for a fairly substantial Severe Weather threat. It doesn't appear that an outbreak is likely, but it has potential nonetheless. The system behind that may be a different story however.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
625. KoritheMan
3:36 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting happer:
I would not call it a quiet season for hurricanes this year. There is a better chance for less wind shear out in the atlantic.


The eastern Atlantic will likely be very quiet this year.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
624. KoritheMan
3:35 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

Thanks for you input...I guess we'll have to wait and see what the conditions will be like during the hurricane season


I do expect to see an early start though, possibly as early as next month with the way things are now. Not to mention most El Nino/warm neutral years tend to start early and end early.

The real question is, will we have any particularly dangerous storms come up the heart of the Caribbean and ride up the US Gulf Coast? Or even a similar storm moving through the Bahamas and up the east coast? Questions, questions.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
623. happer
3:34 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
I would not call it a quiet season for hurricanes this year. There is a better chance for less wind shear out in the atlantic.
Member Since: February 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
622. KoritheMan
3:33 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link

Choose one of the tc folders.


Cool. Thanks.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
621. nigel20
3:32 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't agree with it. It seems to be predicated entirely on a statistical model that was developed last year. We'll see, but I have my reasons to think the development of El Nino will neither be rapid nor particularly strong, at least during the portion of the season that actually counts (Aug-Sep). Until I see evidence to the contrary, I'm still going with 12/7/3.

Thanks for you input...I guess we'll have to wait and see what the conditions will be like during the hurricane season
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
620. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:29 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


How do you view past images on NRL?

Link

Choose one of the tc folders.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
619. nigel20
3:29 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967
618. KoritheMan
3:28 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting nigel20:

I'm good...what do you think about CSU's forecast for the hurricane season?


I don't agree with it. It seems to be predicated entirely on a statistical model that was developed last year. We'll see, but I have my reasons to think the development of El Nino will neither be rapid nor particularly strong, at least during the portion of the season that actually counts (Aug-Sep). Until I see evidence to the contrary, I'm still going with 12/7/3.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
617. KoritheMan
3:26 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I decided to restart my cyclone animations and switch from color infrared to black and white infrared. Additionally, I plan on doing every system that attained tropical storm status or higher from 2003 to 2011.

Subtropical Ana 2003
Tropical Storm Bill 2003
Hurricane Claudette 2003
Hurricane Danny 2003
Hurricane Erika 2003
Hurricane Fabian 2003


How do you view past images on NRL?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 572 Comments: 20344
616. nigel20
3:26 AM GMT on April 07, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm fine. You?

I'm good...what do you think about CSU's forecast for the hurricane season?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7967

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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