CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like a back door event coming up for the ne region with some much cooler air on the way till end of the week then a rtn flow warm up starting sat of next week

looks that way anyway for the time being stay tune i guess
I am curious to see what the next Euro and CMC models do. The Mets at the NWS are saying that confidence in the models is decent with the 6-10 day forecast giving it a 3 out of a possible 5.
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Quoting Grothar:


Keep this up and I will have you write a 100 page essay! :)


I appreciate your help Sensei....

Have you gotten any rain recently?
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hello gro
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Quoting PedleyCA:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-vis. ht ml


Keep this up and I will have you write a 100 page essay! :)
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looks like a back door event coming up for the ne region with some much cooler air on the way till end of the week then a rtn flow warm up starting sat of next week

looks that way anyway for the time being stay tune i guess
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Skill
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Quoting Grothar:
\

Here is the link, Pedley. You can't post those until you do a few things first.

Link


Right, you said that was lesson #2.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
post 696 has updated to the 12z run nice vort with the end of the run still showing from previous 6Z run
lets see what 18z shows
Post # 696 looks very winterish..
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Quoting PedleyCA:
a href="" target="_blank">

Here is that system
\

Here is the link, Pedley. You can't post those until you do a few things first.

Link
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-vis.ht ml
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.
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From the Central Pacific Hurricane Center regarding 90C:

Issued: Apr 07, 2012 2:30 AM HST

Based on data through 2:00 am Apr 07 2012 HST

The responsible system is a deep area of low pressure located 1125 miles west southwest of Kauai at 19N 176W. The low is marked by scattered convection within 100 miles east of the low's center. The tops of the convection reaches up to 48000 feet. The system is about vertically stacked from near the surface to at least 30000 feet. It has been drifting westward but now appeared stalled.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13273
we have warm days near 60 today but cool at night over 60 tomorrow but then a cool down even say we may see flurries on wed night thurs morning lows will be in high 20f range for end of the week

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Saturday 7 April 2012
Condition: Sunny
Pressure: 30.24 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 55.2%uFFFDF
Dewpoint: 19.8%uFFFDF
Humidity: 25 %
Wind: NW 6 mph

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post 696 has updated to the 12z run nice vort with the end of the run still showing from previous 6Z run
lets see what 18z shows
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
somin to watch we will see models are tricky this time of year be another couple of weeks before we get into a more normal seasonal pattern as summer slowly approaches as spring advances
Yes...They are fickle indeed...We had a frost advisory here last night..We have been smashing record highs, then this freezing stuff...Sheeesh..
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somin to watch we will see models are tricky this time of year be another couple of weeks before we get into a more normal seasonal pattern as summer slowly approaches as spring advances
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Good morning Keep. I know its a long way out there, that would be an intense system. The 6 day Euro, with a 997 MB low over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 AM EDT SAT APR 07 2012

VALID 12Z WED APR 11 2012 - 12Z SAT APR 14 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FEATURES TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH
RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO THE
PLAINS. OTHER THAN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
A SLOW OUTLIER...THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
AS WELL AS MANY OF THE DETAILS. SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN IS
AMPLIFIED...CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE PRESSURES WERE BASED ON A 40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/06Z
GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND
OF THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THEREAFTER. THIS SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
TEAMING UP WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. A SECOND AREA OF MOSTLY CONVECTIVE RAINS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A THIRD BATCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT SATURDAY. PER THE LATEST STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSION... A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/SOUTH OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS TEXAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE WARM
SECTOR PER THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A PAIR STRONG/DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND TRACK
TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...GULF MOISTURE IS
TAPPED...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. OUT EAST...LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR WRAPS CYCLONICALLY
ACROSS THE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL GREAT LAKES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
COLD VORTEX MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.

ROTH
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IA/EASTERN KS INTO
NORTHWEST OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF OK/TX. FULL SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CAP BY MID AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP TO PROMOTE VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30-40 KNOT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 04/07/2012
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COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012
GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.
IMPORTANT NOTICE TO MARINERS...MARINE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED AT LEAST
FOUR TIMES A DAY. BOATERS ON EXTENDED TRIPS SHOULD ROUTINELY MONITOR
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES AND UPDATES FOR THE LATEST MARINE
WEATHER INFORMATION.
GMZ800-072130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER-
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO EAST OF FLORIDA AS
IT RIDGES BACK TO THE GULF. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY.
GMZ830-072130-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION

THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EXCEPT 15 TO 20
KNOTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A MODERATE
CHOP EXCEPT CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS.

TONIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP.

SUNDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP.

SUNDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. BAY AND INLAND
WATERS SMOOTH.

MONDAY
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. BAY AND INLAND
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
A LIGHT CHOP.

WEDNESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
A LIGHT CHOP.

GMZ853-856-072130-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS.

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. BAY AND
INLAND WATERS CHOPPY.

SUNDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. BAY AND
INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

SUNDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. BAY AND
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

MONDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
BAY AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BAY
AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. BAY AND
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

WEDNESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
BAY AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

GMZ873-876-072130-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET.

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

SUNDAY
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO
10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

SUNDAY NIGHT
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

MONDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

WEDNESDAY
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

GMZ850-072130-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS CHOPPY IN EXPOSED AREAS.

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING AROUND 15 KNOTS
TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP.

SUNDAY
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. BAY AND INLAND
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND
5 KNOTS TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP.

MONDAY
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BAY AND
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. BAY
AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. BAY AND
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

TUESDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. BAY AND
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

WEDNESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
BAY AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.

GMZ870-072130-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET.

TONIGHT
EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

SUNDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING EAST AROUND
5 KNOTS TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 2 FEET.

MONDAY
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.

MONDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

TUESDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

TUESDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

WEDNESDAY
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33250
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
647 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035 >038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081146-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFO RD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JE FF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAN D GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
647 AM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES TODAY...

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST TODAY...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND ROUGH SURF WILL RESULT IN THE HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.

AREAS OF SMOKE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE CITY AND LIVE OAK
VICINITIES DUE TO THE COUNTY LINE WILDFIRE IN NORTHERN COLUMBIA
COUNTY.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY...AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

ENYEDI
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33250
Quoting aspectre:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . blog2066
StormTracker2K: ...it's coming and this will rival the April 2007 Cold Wave. This will likely send freezes deep into the south.
323 Neapolitan: ...it's not that it couldn't happen this year; it's just that it'll take an extraordinarily powerful blast of cold air to make it happen this month. The April 2007 event did come on the heels of a warmer-than-normal March (though not nearly as warm as it was this year)...
336 aspectre: Let's hope that this particular cooler April following on this even warmer March doesn't lead to significantly more Arctic sea-ice melting than the record-setting low-extent Summer of 2007
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . blog2067
477 TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ya know, I really hate when coincidences keep piling up. Makes ya start to wonder about when random matches should be taken as portents. 2007 also had a fairly busy HurricaneSeason:
17TropicalCyclones, 15NamedStorms, 6Hurricanes, and 2Majors. But those Majors were Cat.5s, Dean and Felix
amazin, even here in central Florida its in the low 70's this morning..YESSSSSS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33250
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . blog2066
StormTracker2K: ...it's coming and this will rival the April 2007 Cold Wave. This will likely send freezes deep into the south.
323 Neapolitan: ...it's not that it couldn't happen this year; it's just that it'll take an extraordinarily powerful blast of cold air to make it happen this month. The April 2007 event did come on the heels of a warmer-than-normal March (though not nearly as warm as it was this year)...
336 aspectre: Let's hope that this particular cooler April following on this even warmer March doesn't lead to significantly more Arctic sea-ice melting than the record-setting low-extent Summer of 2007
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . blog2067page10comment477
TropicalAnalystwx13:

I really hate when coincidences keep piling up. Makes ya start to wonder about when apparently random matches should be taken as portents. 2007 also had a fairly busy HurricaneSeason:
17TropicalCyclones, 15NamedStorms, 6Hurricanes, and 2Majors/IntenseHurricanes.
But both of those Majors, Dean and Felix, made landfalls as Cat.5s.
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Link dont worry its a link to download a lil joe bastardi views
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fuji nuck site still can be #1 far from over
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071517Z - 071645Z

THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE POTENTIAL THAT COULD REQUIRE ONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
PROBABLY WILL OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...THAN EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER PLAINS. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL LIFT...AND AN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A
CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TULSA AREA.

BASED ON RUC GUIDANCE...INHIBITION APPEARS WEAKEST NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY APPEARS HIGHEST
BETWEEN NOW AND 18-20Z. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE...EITHER ABOVE THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT...OR
ABOVE STABLE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. BUT...STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST SHEAR...WHICH IS MAINLY THE RESULT
OF SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT.

OCCASIONAL STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM.

..KERR.. 04/07/2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
For those of you who enjoy sportsfishing, our neighbor, fishing legend and host of "Spanish Fly" Jose Wejebe was killed when his COMP AIR 8 crashed on takeoff yesterday afternoon in Everglades City. Tight lines and good times on the other side Jose!!!

Link

Amen.
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For those of you who enjoy sportsfishing, our neighbor, fishing legend and host of "Spanish Fly" Jose Wejebe was killed when his COMP AIR 8 crashed on takeoff yesterday afternoon in Everglades City. Tight lines and good times on the other side Jose!!!

Link

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Living In the tropics is wonderfull

Current Temperature 86.0
Current Hummility 100%

I think that should bring the heat index over 112 degrees.
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Texas forecast to get more rain in areas that need it..And the 6 day prog shows the storm 13 has been mentioning.....
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GFS 168 hours.
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I can certainly tell that there isn't much going on weather wise when french female singers are being discussed in this blog...
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


sat april 14 looks like day 8 to me.

just saying.

Oops, lol.

Still looks pretty good, however, the SPC is probably using the ECMWF's solution (which is much more bullish) over the GFS.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
First warning of the day...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC113-147-071600-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0033.120407T1454Z-120407T1600Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
954 AM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 953 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HULAH TO 3 MILES NORTH OF
PEARSONIA TO 4 MILES EAST OF BURBANK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
BIGHEART...PEARSONIA...HULAH...COPAN...DEWEY...PAW HUSKA...OSAGE
HILLS STATE PARK...BARTLESVILLE...OKESA...WYNONA...BARNSDALL.. .
OCHELATA...AVANT AND RAMONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9585 3698 9582 3661 9582 3637 9607
3665 9684 3693 9658 3701 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1454Z 295DEG 32KT 3688 9611 3684 9645
3667 9665

$$

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Day 6 still looks potent, we could be dealing with a tornado outbreak...especially with these soundings and hodos.





sat april 14 looks like day 8 to me.

just saying.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


the day 6 doesnt look 2 good to me, looks more like 7 and 8.

Day 6 still looks potent, we could be dealing with a tornado outbreak...especially with these soundings and hodos.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Next week is setting up to be very active, as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF especially. As you guys know, it is uncommon to see a Day 4 outlook, almost rare to see a Day 5, and rare to see a Day 6. The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined one for Thursday-Friday. It appears that a regional Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak is becoming likely across Oklahoma and Kansas, transitioning south and east with time. Additionally, there is an even more powerful trough following behind this one, and it appears that yet another major outbreak is going to occur next Saturday. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has already mentioned it.

BEYOND D6...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY
COULD DEVELOP ON D8/SAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANOTHER REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA.


Active times ahead...


the day 6 doesnt look 2 good to me, looks more like 7 and 8.
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Quoting Articuno:

and i think your post 666 :O

Oh noes!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahh!!.I can see the pinhole eye starring into my soul!

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I found a cool page..

Ahh!!.I can see the pinhole eye starring into my soul!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15706
I found a cool page..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
Has anyone seen Bosburn's video of hurricane Dolly on youtube?.Very very well done video.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15706
Quoting Ameister12:
I think the blog is dead. :(

and i think your post 666 :O
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What Thawed the Last Ice Age?

Short answer: CO2
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Next week is setting up to be very active, as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF especially. As you guys know, it is uncommon to see a Day 4 outlook, almost rare to see a Day 5, and rare to see a Day 6. The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined one for Thursday-Friday. It appears that a regional Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak is becoming likely across Oklahoma and Kansas, transitioning south and east with time. Additionally, there is an even more powerful trough following behind this one, and it appears that yet another major outbreak is going to occur next Saturday. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has already mentioned it.

BEYOND D6...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY
COULD DEVELOP ON D8/SAT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND INTO THE PLAINS...BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES INTRODUCING ANOTHER REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA.


Active times ahead...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30242
I think the blog is dead. :(
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.