CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

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Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This tornado has been on the ground for 45 minutes now.

Luckily it appeared to go over mostly rural areas
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
There is a new warning out on the tornado producing storm
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This tornado has been was on the ground for 45 minutes now.

Public is reporting a funnel cloud now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
This tornado has been on the ground for 45 minutes now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF
STERLING CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER... HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIDLAND.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Um.....no, not really. Quite frankly, by some of his arguments I'm quite surprised he even made it through elementary college statistics and probability courses.


Which is why I take anyone and anything with an immediate grain of salt whenever Bastardi is used as a source.
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April 6, 2012:



April 6, 2011:



April 6, 2010:



April 6, 2009:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
There seems to be an awful lot of complacency about, after all with a big change over from La Nina to neutral, or whatever might feel like forming or not for that matter.
Well I supose everybody can have a good well earned rest in the second week of April?
In my opinion, which is worth Zero of course but I would be inclined to keep an eye on the Arctic as this might be a year for a few unexpected 'developments,'
Caution must be exercised with the Atlantic season as there might not be much predicted activity but what little there is might just stray a little further West than it has over the last few "lucky years,"
I'm a trifle concerned about the high Gulf Temps this early but then again there's nothing we can do about, Nature! or the Nature of Things?
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Hope a chaser with live stream is able to get to that tornado warned storm soon.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

NEZ004>006-008-009-022>027-035>038-056>059-069>07 1-094-080900-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BROWN-ROCK-GARDEN-GRANT-HOOKER-
THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-LOGAN-CUSTER- DEUEL-KEITH-
PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-WESTERN CHERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...VALENTINE...
SPRINGVIEW...AINSWORTH...BASSETT...OSHKOSH...HYAN NIS...MULLEN...
THEDFORD...DUNNING...TAYLOR...ARTHUR...TRYON...ST APLETON...
BROKEN BOW...CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA...GRANT...
NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL...HAYES CENTER...CURTIS...EUSTIS...CODY...
MERRIMAN...KILGORE
356 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012 /256 PM MDT SAT APR 7 2012/

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
20 TO 25 DEGREES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY WEST OF A MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA TO IMPERIAL LINE AND
IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEYS. GOING EAST OF THAT LINE...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 25 TO 32 DEGREES.

DUE TO THESE COLD TEMPERATURES...A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH FROST AND LOCALIZED FREEZING EXPECTED
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

$$

BROOKS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38451
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
These storms are starting to intensify...

TORNADO WARNING
TXC335-072145-
/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0003.120407T2116Z-120407T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO CITY...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR... IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THE STORM. A TORNADO
MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND OR MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM... MOVE TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A
STURDY BUILDING OR INTO AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING... DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10118 3224 10117 3224 10090 3208 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 061DEG 3KT 3217 10098

$$
boy texas is really getting their share of bad tornado's this spring huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38451
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

TXC335-072145-
/O.CON.KMAF.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120407T2145Z/
MITCHELL TX-
426 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 423 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...OR ABOUT 19
MILES NORTH OF STERLING CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.


SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE...SOUTH CENTRAL
MITCHELL COUNTY NEAR STATE HIGHWAY 163 JUST SOUTH OF FM 2183...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO... THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
NOW.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE... SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT... DITCH OR
LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10118 3224 10117 3224 10090 3208 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 061DEG 3KT 3211 10103

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

(Click image to enlarge)

Big hail core
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779

(Click image to enlarge)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
These storms are starting to intensify...

TORNADO WARNING
TXC335-072145-
/O.NEW.KMAF.TO.W.0003.120407T2116Z-120407T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO CITY...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN MITCHELL COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR... IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED WITHIN THE STORM. A TORNADO
MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND OR MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM... MOVE TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A
STURDY BUILDING OR INTO AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING... DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3208 10118 3224 10117 3224 10090 3208 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 061DEG 3KT 3217 10098

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Looks like a decent sever weather pattern may set up over Texas. You got colder than normal right next to warmer. Also increased precip chance in the are would suggest more moisture. The models showing anything in the 6-10 day range?

Back to back Severe Weather Outbreaks starting on Thursday and on.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting hydrus:

Skill
Looks like a decent sever weather pattern may set up over Texas. You got colder than normal right next to warmer. Also increased precip chance in the are would suggest more moisture. The models showing anything in the 6-10 day range?
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Another fine example of Bastardi logic. He picks two short term points of a long term trend chart and tries to make a comparison. Did anyone notice the Arctic long term trend chart he was using? The overall, long term trend is quite clearly showing a continued loss of Arctic sea ice that continues even today. Yet, he chooses two points on the chart to try to make a comparison? ... Is anyone impressed by his method for showing a long term trend? Anyone?


Um.....no, not really. Quite frankly, by some of his arguments I'm quite surprised he even made it through elementary college statistics and probability courses.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
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Link
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Good afternoon Dr Jeff and all who post here.

Hi everyone, just want to stop by and wish you all a Great Weekend.
Hope the Weather gives us a break and a few days without horrible severe storms.
Very happy to hear this should be a quieter than usual year in the tropics...
but that does not mean we should not keep a watch out for those that sneak thru the wind shear.

You all, carry on, and enjoy your Saturday Afternoon.

Gams



Have a Blessed and Happy Easter Weekend!
Hallelujah Egg image
Easter Christian Graphics

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH OF MINERAL
WELLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG A COLD
FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. OTHER STORMS ARE
FORMING OVER THE DAVIS MTNS OF SOUTHWEST TX. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...HART
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SAT APR 7 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC043-059-081-083-095-103-105-133-151-173-207-227 -235-237-253-
329-335-353-363-371-383-399-413-415-417-429-431-44 1-443-447-451-
461-503-080300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0150.120407T2000Z-120408T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREWSTER CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN CONCHO CRANE
CROCKETT EASTLAND FISHER
GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD
IRION JACK JONES
MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN
PALO PINTO PECOS REAGAN
RUNNELS SCHLEICHER SCURRY
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING
TAYLOR TERRELL THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN UPTON YOUNG


ATTN...WFO...MAF...FWD...SJT...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Chilly and steady rain here in central OK.

fwiw...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT SAT APR 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071929Z - 072030Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITH TIME.

CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT...LOCATED AS OF
19Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD TOWARDS MARFA TX...WITH A TOWERING
CU/DEVELOPING STORM OVER FISHER COUNTY TX. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE HEIGHT
RISES MAY INITIALLY HINDER A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS...FRONTAL
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAD TO A WELL
DEFINED LINE OF STORMS BY THIS EVENING. AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING HAS
NEARLY ERODED ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...PARTICULARLY FROM S CNTRL OK SWWD WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE MODEST FLOW ALOFT/PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA IN NWRN TX/S CNTRL OK /AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..HURLBUT.. 04/07/2012
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Looking at the sst map, is there a particular reason for the linear nature of the band of cool water running from the carribean straight up the atlantic? or is it just random that it formed in such a linear path- - almost looks like thecold water wake from a big hurricane.
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this weeks cool down will be the last as the spring push begins with earnest and shoves the cold air to far northern canada and summer follows behind it

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon all.

Hi CybrTeddy, how's it going?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
jet not too strong but still should support storm dev

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon all.


Good afternoon. Does 90C look more Subtropical now?

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
vort streak next sun shows severe weather from west tex pan handle ne ward moving east

this one will not cut off hopefully


Every day from Thursday and on looks very active next week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
vort streak next sun shows severe weather from west tex pan handle ne ward moving east

this one will not cut off hopefully

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Afternoon all.
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Quoting Grothar:


I agree.

Hi Gro. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

..


I agree.
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Quoting Grothar:
Doesn't look like much weather anywhere.




So weather is over? It was just a fad?
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
243 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

NJZ007>010-020>022-027-PAZ060>062-069-080900-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND -ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON. ..
DOYLESTOWN
243 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

...POCKETS OF NEAR FREEZING OR AT FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN
BRING CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN POCKETS OF NEAR OR AT FREEZING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORE SHELTERED, LOW LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
URBAN CENTERS. ANY COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS COULD SUFFER DAMAGE IF
THE TEMPERATURE DROPS TO OR NEAR FREEZING. WHERE POSSIBLE, PLEASE
BRING AND KEEP INDOORS ANY POTTED PLANTS. OTHER COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED.

WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER,
MORE CHILLY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

$$

TFG
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hello gro


Hi, Keep.
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Doesn't look like much weather anywhere.


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Quoting caribbeantracker01:
Link dont worry its a link to download a lil joe bastardi views


Another fine example of Bastardi logic. He picks two short term points of a long term trend chart and tries to make a comparison. Did anyone notice the Arctic long term trend chart he was using? The overall, long term trend is quite clearly showing a continued loss of Arctic sea ice that continues even today. Yet, he chooses two points on the chart to try to make a comparison? ... Is anyone impressed by his method for showing a long term trend? Anyone?
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Decent storm coming close to Nassau, Bahamas last night. Let the rainy season begin!



Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1893
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro.


Hi, Hy!
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Quoting PedleyCA:


I appreciate your help Sensei....

Have you gotten any rain recently?


No, Grasshopper, not a drop.
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Quoting Thrawst:
.

..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
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Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1893
Hello Gro.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like a back door event coming up for the ne region with some much cooler air on the way till end of the week then a rtn flow warm up starting sat of next week

looks that way anyway for the time being stay tune i guess
I am curious to see what the next Euro and CMC models do. The Mets at the NWS are saying that confidence in the models is decent with the 6-10 day forecast giving it a 3 out of a possible 5.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.