Tornadoes rip through Dallas metro area

By: AngelaFritz , 9:36 PM GMT on April 03, 2012

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At least three tornadoes have ripped through the Dallas metro area this afternoon, one passing between Dallas and Fort Worth, bearing down on the Dallas-Fort Worth airport but narrowly missing to the east. The other two tornadoes passed east of Dallas, one touching down near the town of Forney, where there were reports of impacts to the high school. The DFW airport issued a ground stop for all incoming flights and grounded all planes at their airports, and a spokesman said they were sheltering passengers. The airport is now closed while they inspect the planes for hail damage, and can accept no incoming flights for lack of a place to put them.

Residential neighborhoods were completely destroyed in the Arlington tornado, and tractor trailers were tossed like toys. Extensive damage was done to the Green Oaks nursing home and rehab center, which is just east of Lake Arlington. The Arlington tornado was on the ground for approximately 30 minutes. In addition to the tornadoes, trained storm spotters were reporting hail up to three inches in diameter, which is approximately the size of a baseball.

The mayor and city council of Arlington, Texas declared a state of disaster for the city when, just an hour after the tornado had passed through, it was obvious that the area had sustained incredible damage.

Tornado warnings continue to be issued, and the potential for severe thunderstorms with and tornadoes will continue through the evening in eastern Texas, Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. The convective outlook paints a good picture of the tornado potential for the rest of the evening. If you're in one of these regions, stay alert for tornado watches or warnings that may be issued.


Radar reflectivity of the tornadic thunderstorms as they passed over the Dallas metro area this afternoon. The storms that produced tornadoes are circled, and Arlington, Texas has been pointed out on the map.


Tornado warnings (red) and severe thunderstorm warnings (yellow) at the time two tornadoes were passing to the east and west of Dallas, Texas.


Video of the Arlington tornado developing as it crosses US-287 near Sublett Road, from Twitter user @wesstevens.



Video 2. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.

Angela

Forney Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Forney, TX 4/3/12
Forney Tornado
Forney Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Forney, TX 4/3/12
Forney Tornado
Iowa Hail (RevMac)
A co-worker was describing the severe storm that rolled through eastern Iowa Saturday night and mentioned golf ball sized hail that damaged his home. He produced this photo as evidence. I told Nathan I would share with the WU family.
Iowa Hail
Large Hail (wecarver50)
Hail from April 3 storms in Dallas, Tx
Large Hail

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Quoting nigel20:

When I say anytime I'm not talking instaneously....anytime in terms of the next couple years to many thousands of years


Ah ok. I thought you were implying that it could go off tomorrow or something. :P
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Water temps across the Caribbean/Tropical Atlantic have warmed significantly over the past week+. It's obvious that the sun angle is trending more and more towards a summer regime, causing longer days and more intense heating. However, the warming would be slower if the NAO had stayed positive as it did all winter. The recent negative NAO has allowed a quicker warm up across the tropics. Who knows how long it will last, but it's there for now.

Yeah...the longer the NAO stays negative...the more warming will take place in the atlantic
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It's now 95 here in Maitland. Little early for this!

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There was a faint scent of the muck fire in the air up here north of Canaveral Shoreline last night and this morning, Skye. I was wondering where it was coming from.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Here is the difference in 4 days. It is pretty substantial if you ask me:

March 30:



April 3:



Wow, that's a lot of warming in a short time...
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Here is the difference in 4 days. It is pretty substantial if you ask me:

March 30:



April 3:

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Quoting nigel20:
April 3, 2011

April 3, 2012



Water temps across the Caribbean/Tropical Atlantic have warmed significantly over the past week+. It's obvious that the sun angle is trending more and more towards a summer regime, causing longer days and more intense heating. However, the warming would be slower if the NAO had stayed positive as it did all winter. The recent negative NAO has allowed a quicker warm up across the tropics. Who knows how long it will last, but it's there for now.
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392. wxmod

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Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yellowstone Has Bulged as Magma Pocket Swells

Since then, about 30 smaller eruptions—including one as recent as 70,000 years ago—have filled the caldera with lava and ash, producing the relatively flat landscape we see today.

But beginning in 2004, scientists saw the ground above the caldera rise upward at rates as high as 2.8 inches (7 centimeters) a year. (Related: "Yellowstone Is Rising on Swollen 'Supervolcano.'")

The rate slowed between 2007 and 2010 to a centimeter a year or less. Still, since the start of the swelling, ground levels over the volcano have been raised by as much as 10 inches (25 centimeters) in places.



Yellowstone is a geologically active hotspot, but we haven't had any major geological events happen in that area that would indicate a massive imminent eruption (volcanic eruptions, strong earthquakes, etc.). There will be quite a bit of warning. We won't be able to do much about it, but there will be plenty of warning.
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Marine Monster Mystery on S.C. Beach


A bizarre creature that washed ashore last week in Folly Beach, S.C., sparked speculation in the area and on the Internet that a dead sea monster might have been discovered.



Somehow Presslord had to be involved in this.......
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Quoting jeffs713:

That map is at the 850mb level... which is 5000-7000 feet up.
pesky observation :P
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.
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387. Skyepony (Mod)
Slight orange hue outside today from the smoke filtered sunlight. Muck fires are having a good day 92.8ºF, winds are gusting to 15mph.
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1052 AM EDT WED APR 4 2012 /952 AM CDT WED APR 4 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM THREAT IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE THREAT WOULD BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER IN THE MORNING AND EAST OF THE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREAT BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED.

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY. STILL...SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER LATER TODAY IN CASE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
I'll be honest, though. The trough forecast for next week would have been one of the more impressive troughs of our non-winter. :-)


Does this mean I should start hoping for snow again?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well it's not all about the numbers anyway when it comes to hurricane season.....We could have 5 storms for all we know and if those five storms all make landfall as hurricanes then the season will defentially be remember.Just because you have alot of storms doesn't mean anything.2003 is a good example of this.


We did have Irene last year. And Hurricane Ike was a very decent sized storm - certainly in terms of impact. I don't think we're exactly in a dry spell.
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Hot here in central VA. 88 degrees in the shade on my porch. Since it feels like July now, what will July feel like? Pure hell?

Those of you who have air conditioners better get them serviced early this year. And if you've been thinking about purchasing a generator in case the grid goes down, this might be a good time to do so.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES AND FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW THAT WILL LIKELY BE OVER AR BY 12Z THURSDAY WILL
ADVANCE ESEWD AS IT PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTS SWWD ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD.

...SERN STATES...

SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD REMAINS CONDITIONAL OVER A PART OF THE
EXISTING SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE ONGOING
OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL WITHIN ZONE OF DPVA JUST AHEAD
OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THESE STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST MUCAPE AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT WINDS IN THE SFC-3KM LAYER SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION...AND THE EARLY STORMS COULD POSE
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. EXTENT OF THE EARLY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DICTATE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL LATER
IN THE DAY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
OCCURS IN REMAINING PARTS OF WARM SECTOR.

MODEST WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD TRANSPORT RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE FL PENINSULA. MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL
JET WITHIN BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. THUS THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
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Quoting hydrus:
The most recent GFS has the freezing line into North Florida..I think thats overdone for sure...Link

That map is at the 850mb level... which is 5000-7000 feet up.
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Had a brief hook and is showing subtle signs of rotation...





It is tornado warned:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
116 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

TXC039-167-041845-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120404T1845Z/
GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-
116 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
GALVESTON AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTIES...

AT 110 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE RADAR INDICATED TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILCREST. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN ALVIN AND SANTA FE. THE STORM IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALVIN...SANTA FE...HITCHCOCK AND HILLCREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 2921 9505 2932 9531 2945 9526 2943 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 286DEG 8KT 2936 9519

$$
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Some areas around New Orleans have seen 8" of rain the last few days.

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TuMama: Does global warming make it likelyer to get a metoer strike due to change in atmospheric condition?
333 Xyrus2000: No. Global warming has absolutely no effect on meteor strikes.

Ya know, I had the same reaction upon first reading the question, then got distracted enough by following comments that I forgot about it.
And now that I see what woulda been "my" answer, I'm wondering if I gave it enough thought.

meteoroid -- any natural chunk of rock and/or metal in space too small to call an asteroid (all the way down to dust mote size).
meteor -- that chunk of rock/etc burning down through the atmosphere
meteorite -- any portion of that chunk of rock/etc that survives passage through the atmosphere intact enough to hit the surface.

GlobalWarming is heating the troposphere. Is it also expanding the troposphere as expectable through simple constant pressure plus increased heat equals expansion would suggest?

The GreenhouseGases which drive that tropospheric heating are also reflecting enough infrared back down to lessen infrared heating of the stratosphere. Is the resulting cooling stratosphere shrinking as expectable through simple constant pressure minus heat equals contraction would suggest?

What is the overall effect of the combined ?new? volume of the troposphere and the stratosphere upon the volume and height of the mesosphere (where most of the rock/etc burning occurs, and thus where most meteors first gain visibility, ie make the status change from meteoroid to meteor)

By the time a meteroid reaches the height of the KamanLine, significant meteoroid heating and orbital degradation due to aerodynamic drag (leading toward earthfall and meteor-status) has to be occurring. What is overall effect of the combined ?new? volume of the troposphere, the stratosphere, and the mesosphere doing to the height of the KamanLine?

Is the combined ?new? volume of the troposphere, the stratosphere, and the mesosphere causing Earth's lower thermosphere to capture more meteoroids, eventually leading to more meteors being created and spotted from the ground?

For that matter, are the expectable on-average pressures corresponding to each atmospheric layer remaining constant on average?

Somehow methinks The Effect of GlobalWarming on Meteors is a question complex enough to require a doctoral dissertation and a publishable paper for an answer.

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April 3, 2011

April 3, 2012

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Quoting hydrus:
Greenland high is way behind..:)


LOL! Yeah by 2 months.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yup and bad outbreaks as well. Either way you slice it a very deep surge of cold air is likely coming due to the Greenland Block but after that watchout.
Greenland high is way behind..:)
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Impressive MCS occurring in the gulf, it would be nice if it barreled all the way into WCFL tonight and bring a shot of rain/thunderstorms ahead of schedule. As of now though I doubt it, its quite dry here with a PWAT of only 1 inch and also relatively stable. The only chance it makes it this far is if the atmosphere changes quick preceding the MCS itself.

There is CAPE between 2000 and 3000 J/kg over south Florida, even though its only around 1000 here. If that can advect north with high moisture in the southern gulf as well the convective system would have plenty of support. We shall see. Most likely it will dissipate but it will be nice to watch just in case it does hold together.


That line is getting closer and it appears it may make it. Even the NWS in Tampa mentioned in call about an hour ago that they are watching it too.
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Quoting hydrus:
And we have a week to watch it. It does look like severe weather after the trough.


Yup and bad outbreaks as well. Either way you slice it a very deep surge of cold air is likely coming due to the Greenland Block but after that watchout.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Impressive MCS occurring in the gulf, it would be nice if it barreled all the way into WCFL tonight and bring a shot of rain/thunderstorms ahead of schedule. As of now though I doubt it, its quite dry here with a PWAT of only 1 inch and also relatively stable. The only chance it makes it this far is if the atmosphere changes quick preceding the MCS itself.

There is CAPE between 2000 and 3000 J/kg over south Florida, even though its only around 1000 here. If that can advect north with high moisture in the southern gulf as well the convective system would have plenty of support. We shall see. Most likely it will dissipate but it will be nice to watch just in case it does hold together.


Hey Jed take a look at this!

TAMPA MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING LESS THAN AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER THAT WOULD BE ADVECTING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE THROUGH THE LAYER IS NOT VERY HIGH...500MB
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST TOO COLD...-12C TO -14C...TO DROP THE MENTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS AND SHOWERS
. SUSPECT THAT THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY AFTERNOON WEATHER
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND
WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE. CURRENT POP GRID SHOWING THIS LINE OF
THINKING WITH A 15 INTERIOR AND AROUND 20 AT THE COAST POP SPREAD.

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Tornado Warning For Galveston

http://www.chasertv.com/Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:


From the Jackson, MS NWS Discussion:

THIS WOULD INDUCE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IF IT
VERIFIES. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK COOL ENOUGH TO BRING A
LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE.
/EC/

The cool blast will be centered a little farther east than us, but I highly doubt even Central Georgia will see temps cold enough to freeze. Extreme North Georgia is a possibility, but it's probably low as well. The models are probably overlooking airmass moderation a bit. Someone will see freezing temps if that blast occurs, but I doubt it's the Deep South.
And we have a week to watch it. It does look like severe weather after the trough.
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Freezing temps coming and hardly no chance of hurricanes.Anyone of the experts predict this.
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The most recent GFS has the freezing line into North Florida..I think thats overdone for sure...Link
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Hurricane forcast a blank,no major hurricane has hit United States since 2005,a all time record of 7 years without a major.
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Quoting SteveDa1:
Superfast 'Gaea' supercomputer helps
scientists model the Earth’s climate


"Gaea now has a computing capacity on the order of a petaflop – or one thousand trillion mathematical operations per second – which is eight to nine times more than NOAA’s previous research and development computing capability."

Well, I guess they do not need my Intel 8088 any more.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4772
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
CNN meteorologist: Today’s tornadoes are ‘climate change we are seeing’


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/03/cnn-meteorologi st-todays-tornadoes-are-climate-change-we-are-seei ng/


That's an opinion. As I've often said on here attribution is hard to in regards to climate. His statements make sense. Climate change does indeed affect the probability of extreme events. But blaming any single event on climate change without some serious scientific research to back it up is, at best, an educated opinion.
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Impressive MCS occurring in the gulf, it would be nice if it barreled all the way into WCFL tonight and bring a shot of rain/thunderstorms ahead of schedule. As of now though I doubt it, its quite dry here with a PWAT of only 1 inch and also relatively stable. The only chance it makes it this far is if the atmosphere changes quick preceding the MCS itself.

There is CAPE between 2000 and 3000 J/kg over south Florida, even though its only around 1000 here. If that can advect north with high moisture in the southern gulf as well the convective system would have plenty of support. We shall see. Most likely it will dissipate but it will be nice to watch just in case it does hold together.
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Just to show the huge difference in the 850mb 0C line and the 10-meter 0C line, here is a map of the closer-to-the-surface freezing boundary for the same time frame as the map I posted above:

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357. Skyepony (Mod)
Marine Contamination from Fukushima.

Kobayashi fellow-researcher from Japan Atomic Energy Agency analyzed that 18,000 trillion Bq of Iodine 131 and cesium 134 137 directly leaked from Fukushima to Pacific ocean.
However, because it is the estimation after 3/26, it would be much more than that if it includes what leaked from 3/11 to 3/25.
Also, it will be a several times much as 18,000 trillion Bq to count the radiation to fall from air down to the sea.
From their simulation, marine contamination already reached Philippines by 4/10/2011, will reach Hawaii by March of 2014, where is 5300 km away from Fukushima.
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I'll be honest, though. The trough forecast for next week would have been one of the more impressive troughs of our non-winter. :-)

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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED APR 04 2012

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM ND INTO NRN MN.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LOW WITHIN THIS REGION AND
ONLY WEAK STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD INTO
OK AND NWRN TX...IN PROXIMITY TO LARGER INSTABILITY. HERE...ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

ON SUN/D5...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A LOW
MOVING SEWD OUT OF MANITOBA...HELPING TO PRODUCE A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES FROM D6-D8. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FORM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE CONUS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER OK
AND TX WITH GENERALLY SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH SPORADIC DIURNAL
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE THERE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT.

..JEWELL.. 04/04/2012
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Quoting aspectre:
305 nigel20: I got a mail from SPL saying that he got a permanent ban....I don't know if you guys got such a mail

sigh... I was hoping he could avoid that for a couple of years.
Excluding those instances when he was on one of his tears, he seemed bright enough and pleasant enough to eventually become a valued voice in this community.
And this community seemed to be capable of being the influence that coulda calm down his tears.
Oh well, maybe a few letters can turn that perma-ban into a temporary suspension. We'll see.
i think this goes to show that low tolerance of intolerance around here has a leg up on trolling behavior. imo, that's one of the saving graces to this community of bloggers. folks understand kids come on here, and folks understand that can lead to positives and negatives, but many chances are afforded those individuals... but if after many opportunities and reasoned approaches are afforded, and such individuals continue acts of intolerance and carelessness, this community will address the matter and those unstable, or disrespectful folks will likely whither away.

it is unfortunate that SPL participated in such duality as to offer good info, exhibiting sincerely deep interests in the Tropics and other weather, all the while making the types of comments that were clear violations of the community standard. my hopes are that in a few years, some stability and perceptiveness will find it's way into his communication. he'll always be welcomed here, granting effort to heed standards!!

Note: some attacks at him have been shameful, which OUGHT be mentioned. there is a difference between asking that an ignored blogger not be quoted who is making outrageous statements, versus engaging personal attacks against that bloggers beliefs. report, ignore, move on... might have helped SPL stick around to mature some.
off soapbox...
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
From the CSU April forecast:

For Puerto Rico, the probability of a Tropical Storm passing within 50 miles is 26%,a Hurricane is 12% and a Major Hurricane is 4%.

I know,when people see the news about the low activity that CSU forecasts will become complacient,but I wont be at all.

That's the problem with these storm number forecast....it introduces complacency amoung people when the forecast is lower
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On a related note, a couple of years ago here in College Station, the 540 line was right about over our heads that day, but the high that day was nearly 70*F. In fact, the lapse rates were so steep that day, that we actually had a thunderstorm!


you tell em ryan....by the way...nice predicting on dallas tornadoes on FB yesterday...not that i'll ever admit i pay attention to my weather weenie friends on FB... :-)
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Quoting jeffs713:


As I mentioned earlier, and Neapolitan also mentioned... This is April, and there is very little snow cover across most of the midwest. This means that whatever cold air goes across the midwest and great lakes is going to get modified (warmed) due to the lack of snow cover.

Also, bear in mind that the 540dm line does NOT mean a freeze. It means that the depth between 1000 and 500mb is 540dm. I've seen temps in the 40s with 540dm heights. I've also seen temps below freezing with heights above 540dm. Right now, the only models hitting on this is the GFS and the CMC to some degree (the CMC is only showing the MSLP pattern, with no temps/heights).

I'm personally going to reserve judgement until this gets a bit closer, stays consistent on timing and strength, and also shows more consensus between models (I'd like to see the ECMWF get on board, as its been remarkably good this winter).

To illustrate my point, here are a few meteograms that show this is a cold shot... but NOT a deep freeze. (watch the freezing line on the top graph)


Cincinnati, OH



Des Moines, IA



Memphis, TN

ALL show cool temps, but not below freezing, and definitely not meeting the qualification of a "hard freeze" (air temps <28F for 6 hours)

On a related note, a couple of years ago here in College Station, the 540 line was right about over our heads that day, but the high that day was nearly 70*F. In fact, the lapse rates were so steep that day, that we actually had a thunderstorm!

College Station, January 24th, 2010



In fact, here is a sounding from Fort Worth that evening showing the extremely steep lapse rates allowing it to heat up into the 60s despite having a sub 540 thickness. Obviously there was a little more moisture in College Station for a thunderstorm to develop, but you get the picture.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Agreed.If a weak El nino forms then that forecast may need to be adjusted a little upward(maybe around 12-14 named storms).But If a moderate to strong El nino does form then thats the best forecast.

Agreed
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
540 line down to Savannaha,GA by next Tuesday evening. This is some punch of cold air.



From the Jackson, MS NWS Discussion:

THIS WOULD INDUCE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND
A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IF IT
VERIFIES. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK COOL ENOUGH TO BRING A
LATE SEASON FROST/FREEZE.
/EC/

The cool blast will be centered a little farther east than us, but I highly doubt even Central Georgia will see temps cold enough to freeze. Extreme North Georgia is a possibility, but it's probably low as well. The models are probably overlooking airmass moderation a bit. Someone will see freezing temps if that blast occurs, but I doubt it's the Deep South.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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