Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

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Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.


Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."


Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.

Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.

"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.


Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Jeff Masters

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FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ARKANSAS...

OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION AFFECTING
CALHOUN...UNION AND BRADLEY COUNTIES


RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
FORECASTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING PERIODS OF
FLOODING...EVENING FORECASTS ARE REISSUED WITH UPDATED RAINFALL
FORECASTS.

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED STAGE DATA PLOTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEB PAGE AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION...SELECT RIVER AND LAKES AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

EVERYONE WITH PROPERTY OR OTHER INTEREST ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER FORECAST. SHOULD CONDITIONS
CHANGE...LOOK FOR RIVER FORECAST OR FLOOD WARNINGS FOR USE IN MAKING
INFORMED DECISIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.


&&

ARC011-013-139-040528-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CALA4.1.ER.120321T1915Z.120330T1200Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
928 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:00 AM TUESDAY THE WATER ELEVATION WAS 84.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD ELEVATION IS 79.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AN ELEVATION OF 83.5
FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.



&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN

OUACHITA RIVER
THATCHER L 79 84.1 TUE 07 AM 83.5 83.0 82.4 81.8 81.2

$$
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RTS...idk why im responding, but...

I aint in a public school because of the trash they are teaching kids, and how some teachers arent doing ANYTHING about students behavior. i dont want to hear the cursing and and the inappropriate talk in public school.

That sir, is why I am homeschooled :D
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Hey, ScottLincoln.

Do you work at a National Weather Service?


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScottLincoln/sho w.html
:)
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SPLbeater, this is a very liberal blog, please watch what you say when it comes to religion or the "Anointed One".
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Some stawberry farms here in GA are worried that their strawberries, which are open to the public for picking in May and June, may not be picked this year, since they are now ready for harvesting and should be done in 4 to 6 weeks, at which point kids will still be in school. They may have to go pick them all themselves and the public may just miss out.
be careful of this weekend, a cold front is coming maybe even a freeze down into georgia they are hinting..
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Quoting hydrus:
It does sound like something a thirteen year old would say, otherwise that post would have troll written on it.


You read my mind.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Heck, southeast Louisiana strawberries have been getting picked for several weeks now. Good strawberries... ~$1.50/pint.


Here they are $10 for a gallon bucket, and few are picking them. Even less people after spring break.
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Quoting percylives:


I don't know where you're getting your forecast info from but if you are correct it will be a disaster for the local orchards as many of the trees and bushes have already bloomed and are now making frost-susceptible fruit.

The impatient gardeners who have already planted their tomatoes and other summer plants will also take a real beating.

Finally, since many of the retail plant outlets here in VA now have there summer plants out of the greenhouses and on display, they are susceptible to any freezing weather. The gardeners may find replacement plants unavailable.

Could be a real mess.
I am worried too..Did you see this.?Link
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ECMWF has a small low sitting south of the Chagos Arch islands in about 8 or 9 days...Wonder if the forecast will make it into a TC in next few days
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting Naga5000:


Another well thought out, highly informed piece of political commentary.
It does sound like something a thirteen year old would say, otherwise that post would have troll written on it.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Some stawberry farms here in GA are worried that their strawberries, which are open to the public for picking in May and June, may not be picked this year, since they are now ready for harvesting and should be done in 4 to 6 weeks, at which point kids will still be in school. They may have to go pick them all themselves and the public may just miss out.


Heck, southeast Louisiana strawberries have been getting picked for several weeks now. Good strawberries... ~$1.50/pint.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
The federal agencies have done a good job on forecasting, emergency monitoring, and damage estimation planning, but not enough on smart redevelopment.
If they can pay a farmer not to grow pigs, why can't they pay a trailer park, to get out of the floodplain and hand over the development rights. I don't mind paying to fix a disaster one time, but NOT two.

There needs to be adaptive smart redevelopment as the climate changes and/or growth continues.
I kinda agree with your point there, building on a known flood plain should be stopped, then again they want every slice of dirt, covered in concrete so they can get more taxes and then they get their pay raises..
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Quoting SPLbeater:
#433

Obama= STUPID

i call him ocrapa for short :D


Another well thought out, highly informed piece of political commentary.
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Quoting aspectre:
Morlocks and Eloi.


Oh, definitely.

I've pointed that out myself previously.

It's absolutely the case, and I was not joking.

I'm fully convinced that was no coincidence in writing, but a fully developed political metaphor, and it's perhaps more true at this point in history than at any time since slavery was abolished...
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Hey, ScottLincoln.

Do you work at a National Weather Service?
Good morning to you..I think he does the T.V. thingy..:)...OCM..
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Quoting ncstorm:


Tri Care is just another insurance company with the same agendas as the other insurance companies, just because they are affiliated with military personnel, they still have the same processes in only wanting to put money before patient care. My family member is sick with a rare disease and he was only expected to live to 12 years of age, he is 21 and still defying the odds. However, when he turned 21, Tri care wanted to immediately stop covering him even though he was disabled and his father is a veteran. They as most insurance companies only see about cutting costs instead of looking out for patient care first. There is a serious problem with our health care issue and PRESIDENT Obama is only trying to help Americans who dont have health insurance and help the ones that do have it but are paying more money into premiums than into a car payment. Sorry for being off topic but this is a personal issue for me. A lot of people havent experienced first hand the dirty tricks that insurance companies prey on sick Americans.
Off topic or not, this is a good post. It is good that people ( WU bloggers too ) know what some of these insurance companies are doing to people who are very ill, and in need of help...........This should be interesting... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON D4...THE SERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM GA TO SC BY 00Z
SAT..THEN OFFSHORE. DESPITE LIKELY ONGOING RAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR DESTABILIZATION INLAND WITH SOME WIND AND HAIL THREAT OVER GA
AND SC HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL AND SHORT
LIVED.

TO THE W...MODELS SHOW A JET MAX WITH THE WRN TROUGH EJECTING IN A
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z SAT. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SELY SURFACE WINDS RESULTING IN A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF NWD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH 40S F DEWPOINTS FROM NEB INTO SD...AND MID
50S F TO NEAR 60 F OVER OK. THE GFS SUGGESTS SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRAZE THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS DRYLINE...RESULTING
IN SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL
SUGGESTS FLOW THAT FAR S WILL BE WEAKER. THEREFORE...A NARROW ZONE
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE KS/OK/TX DRYLINE...BUT
POOR MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL PRECLUDE AN AREA AT
THIS TIME.

SOME ADDITIONAL LOW END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO SAT/D5 WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM NRN TX INTO SRN MO.

FROM D6 ONWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL CANADA...THEN IS LIKELY TO DIG A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM D7-D8 AND BEYOND.

..JEWELL.. 04/03/2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SPLbeater:
#433

Obama= STUPID

i call him ocrapa for short :D


Dislike the man
But respect the office he holds
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Lack of zoning laws seems to be much more common in these parts of Louisiana compared to other places that I have lived. We can keep referring to it being a problem caused by this "government" boogeyman, or we can accept the fact that those making the laws through government were elected by us, and by not wanting government to tell us where to build our houses/stores/factories, we've helped bring this problem upon ourselves.
Indeed. When you vote anti-regulation types into office, you can't later complain that your were harmed by a lack of regulation. Caveat emptor.
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Morlocks and Eloi.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Hey, ScottLincoln.

Do you work at a National Weather Service?
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Quoting RTSplayer:
And then of course, someone will say something smart remark like, "owning a home is a priviledge".

Oh really?

Perhaps legally, but it's clear from the Declaration of Independence that everyone has a right to "life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness".

Now how can one have liberty or pursuit of happiness in a civilization where more and more people can't even afford to own their own home? They are always a wage slave to someone else: the government, the bank, the landlord, somebody.


The 14th amendment forbids involuntary servitude except as punishment for a crime (I.e. making prisoners do grounds keeping, etc, is legal.)

How much of a lower or middle class person's income must be consumed by mandatory taxes, fees, insurances, permits, etc, before they are considered an "Involuntary Servant"?

to a family that makes 100k or more, then 1 to 4k of a mandatory insurance cost probably doesn't matter much.

to a family that makes near or below mean income, which is a huge portion of people in the area being affected by this, because mean income in Louisiana is in most sectors 5k to 10k below the national mean, then its devastating. It's a 10% to maybe 15% wage garnishment for mean income earners.


Bottom line is to exterminate the poor and low end middle class. That's why college tuition keeps going thru the roof, they only want the rich to be educated. It's like soilent green but in a different way.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


What's more, it's not just individual houses left over from 2 to 4 generations ago.

It's entire sub-divisions of brand new homes from maybe 1 to 15 years old, which the government allowed to be zoned and developed below flood zone.

It's as if the state and federal governments have been planning this for decades or something, just as a way to screw people over.


Lack of zoning laws seems to be much more common in these parts of Louisiana compared to other places that I have lived. We can keep referring to it being a problem caused by this "government" boogeyman, or we can accept the fact that those making the laws through government were elected by us, and by not wanting government to tell us where to build our houses/stores/factories, we've helped bring this problem upon ourselves.
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Talk about stupid... Even after you've been banned at least once for it, still wanna insert 4-letter words into your political messages, eh SPLBeater?
Not clever, "hiding" the 4 letters within a name ain't clever at all.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Oh no here comes the political onslaught...sigh

Can't we just all agree that both sides are terrible. ;)

Lincoln NWS. Gonna be an active day for me...:D



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Quoting SPLbeater:
#433

Obama= STUPID

i call him ocrapa for short :D


if i was to ask you why do you believe he is stupid what would be your response?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The federal agencies have done a good job on forecasting, emergency monitoring, and damage estimation planning, but not enough on smart redevelopment.
If they can pay a farmer not to grow pigs, why can't they pay a trailer park, to get out of the floodplain and hand over the development rights. I don't mind paying to fix a disaster one time, but NOT two.

There needs to be adaptive smart redevelopment as the climate changes and/or growth continues.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting percylives:


I don't know where you're getting your forecast info from but if you are correct it will be a disaster for the local orchards as many of the trees and bushes have already bloomed and are now making frost-susceptible fruit.

The impatient gardeners who have already planted their tomatoes and other summer plants will also take a real beating.

Finally, since many of the retail plant outlets here in VA now have there summer plants out of the greenhouses and on display, they are susceptible to any freezing weather. The gardeners may find replacement plants unavailable.

Could be a real mess.



This is a week form today! Look at the cold coming down with even some snow showers in the mid Atlantic. By the way the Euro & CMC all agree on this so get ready as it's going to get much much colder. Your high next Tuesday according to the GFS is in the low 40's with 20's at night.



Link

Link
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Get used to it as much colder wx is coming your way.


I don't know where you're getting your forecast info from but if you are correct it will be a disaster for the local orchards as many of the trees and bushes have already bloomed and are now making frost-susceptible fruit.

The impatient gardeners who have already planted their tomatoes and other summer plants will also take a real beating.

Finally, since many of the retail plant outlets here in VA now have there summer plants out of the greenhouses and on display, they are susceptible to any freezing weather. The gardeners may find replacement plants unavailable.

Could be a real mess.
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FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
759 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...
HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR PEARL RIVER AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY...HANCOCK AND
PEARL RIVER COUNTIES/PARISHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON`T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-040659-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0043.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.1.ER.120322T2038Z.120330T1000Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
759 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO A STAGE OF 18.6 FEET
BY SATURDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS


$$
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Quoting Jax82:
Hmmm



Yeah I know totally different from the last run. NWS in Melbourne as well as yours in JAX are expecting what could be a nasty afternoon. The local WRF9 is really going gang busters this afternoon from Orlando up to JAX as an expected seabreeze collision is expected to occur.
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72 here this morning for a low, that is August weather for us. Not a good sign of the weather ahead.
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443. Inyo
Quoting jeffs713:


Actually, your radar image never shows it crossing the site of the quake. Also, it is extremely unlikely for the quake to be caused by an outflow boundary. Especially since the quake was 3 MILES deep. An outflow boundary has to do with wind changes due to the cool air in a storm no longer being suspended by updrafts. Outflow has exactly nothing to do with pressure changes.


Yeah, that is like saying you blew on a building or tree and made it fall over. If it 'triggered' the earthquake in some way, with pressure changes or something, it probably would have happened a few seconds later without said effect anyway.
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442. Inyo
Quoting RTSplayer:


What's more, it's not just individual houses left over from 2 to 4 generations ago.

It's entire sub-divisions of brand new homes from maybe 1 to 15 years old, which the government allowed to be zoned and developed below flood zone.

It's as if the state and federal governments have been planning this for decades or something, just as a way to screw people over.


If the natural hydrology of the Mississippi Delta isn't restored or emulated in some way, much of Louisiana will go under water even if there is no sea level rise. That's just how deltas work.

We could continue to dump billions into levees but that is a losing proposal in the long term, unfortunately.

eventually the river will shift down the Achafalaya course (or something similar) because rivers in deltas don't stay in the same place. This is bad news for new orleans but maybe a solution can be found for that one location.

I got to visit the delta a few years ago. An amazing place, ecologically and culturally, and so sad to see it facing so many problems, especially since many come from upstream in the vast watershed.

People, cultures, and ecosystems can move... housing developments can not.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Interesting possible correlation between an outflow boundary in Oklahoma, and a moderate sized earthquake there this A.M.

The quake, which is depicted here in copy time, actually took place 2012 April 03 07:33:59 UTC.

If you'll notice, the outflow boundary appears to cross the area where the quake occurred, and approximately the same time.





Actually, your radar image never shows it crossing the site of the quake. Also, it is extremely unlikely for the quake to be caused by an outflow boundary. Especially since the quake was 3 MILES deep. An outflow boundary has to do with wind changes due to the cool air in a storm no longer being suspended by updrafts. Outflow has exactly nothing to do with pressure changes.
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And of course, if it ever gets to the point where pollenating insects such as bees and hornets either go extinct, or can't live in the most fertile farming areas, then our food supplies would be devastated to say the least.

Which of course, we don't even need to think about "mean" temperatures, but rather "extreme" temperatures, such as at the daytime high, in order to contemplate temperature driven extinction events, since it only takes a few seconds to a few minutes at critical temperature to kill an organism like a hornet or bee.


Then thing about the fact that in the past few years, it's become almost a regular event to see record highs broken by 5 to 10 degrees (f) somewhere in the country, what seems like at least a time or two per week!

It's only a matter of time before record summer time extremes start to kill something important.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Same in Louisiana, the pollen almost killed me this year,.. They all bloomed at one time!!!


And in VA. A gardening friend tells me her lilacs are blooming about 18 days early this year.

There is a black walnut tree in the back yard beginning to leaf out. Only one so far but that is so probably a month ahead of schedule.

WHAT WILL THE SUMMER BRING?
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Quoting weatherh98:
Another thing to be noticed is that the trees and flowers bloomed so early because of the heat waves


Some stawberry farms here in GA are worried that their strawberries, which are open to the public for picking in May and June, may not be picked this year, since they are now ready for harvesting and should be done in 4 to 6 weeks, at which point kids will still be in school. They may have to go pick them all themselves and the public may just miss out.
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437. Jax82
Hmmm

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Quoting percylives:
It almost got to freezing (34 F.) on the back porch in central VA overnight. That would have been bad for the tomato, pepper, and sweet potatoes shoots growing out there but all appear to have made it. I wonder if we'll have any more close calls with freezing temps this spring.



Get used to it as much colder wx is coming your way.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


It's not a little heat up. Even a couple degrees is significant. DO you have any idea how much energy it takes to warm a planet by that much?

Life will endure. But will you? Will the current species of plants and animals that we depend upon for food? How about the plants an animals we depend upon that defend our food? What about the climate that was keeping pests and disease at bay for large segments of the population? What about fresh water supplies? Rainfall? Droughts? Floods? Other extreme weather events?

You're not actually thinking that a climate change will not affect the human race are you?

Every major climate change on the planet whether warming or cooling has resulted in an extinction event of some sort.


Lot of people don't understand this sort of stuff, how sensitive some ecosystems are to change.

I once saw on Discovery where they showed a honey bee's survival against the giant hornet attack comes down to a heat tolerance difference of about 1C. That is, the bees swarm the much larger, stronger hornets, and surround their bodies, driving up the body temperature. The hornets die about 1C earlier than the bees would die, and this is how bees survive.


Perfect example of how 1C temperature change could screw up a species. In this case, the Hornets would probably go extinct 1C earlier than bees, assuming flowers and other stuff doesn't make a big difference, but then you'd have to figure out what wild flowers and crops and stuff the bees need most, and at what temperature those go extinct, etc, so it's pretty complicated.


Point is, again, 1C is all it takes to make the difference between life and death for some species.
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It almost got to freezing (34 F.) on the back porch in central VA overnight. That would have been bad for the tomato, pepper, and sweet potatoes shoots growing out there but all appear to have made it. I wonder if we'll have any more close calls with freezing temps this spring.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


If Obama Care goes into effect the Retired Military personal are not going to be happy as Tri Care is about the best insurance out there. Force me to abandon my Tri Care for S*** insureance I don't think so buddy! Madating insurance at an overrated price is just another way for the government to make money so that we can pay for all of these bail outs to all of these large companys that Obama gave money to that went under.


Tri Care is just another insurance company with the same agendas as the other insurance companies, just because they are affiliated with military personnel, they still have the same processes in only wanting to put money before patient care. My family member is sick with a rare disease and he was only expected to live to 12 years of age, he is 21 and still defying the odds. However, when he turned 21, Tri care wanted to immediately stop covering him even though he was disabled and his father is a veteran. They as most insurance companies only see about cutting costs instead of looking out for patient care first. There is a serious problem with our health care issue and PRESIDENT Obama is only trying to help Americans who dont have health insurance and help the ones that do have it but are paying more money into premiums than into a car payment. Sorry for being off topic but this is a personal issue for me. A lot of people havent experienced first hand the dirty tricks that insurance companies prey on sick Americans.
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Oh and by the way the republicans are no better I mean look at the republican candidates they are all a joke! There some things that I don't agree with Obama but at this point I think he is the lesser of all evils for him being re-elected and he will as the republicans can't get their act to together.
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Quoting weatherh98:
that's unconstitutional, you know, this is pretty low because I'm not sure how much walker floods, I know it's on my way to baton rouge. I don't like tht one bit, personally, the still uninhabited parts of Louisiana near the river need to have yearly in put of river water, basically, try to recreate what we have stopped.

I find it interesting that in 03 the opened a part of the levee in plaquemines parish and it never made more land until last years major spring flooding, they had a HUGE area of new land, this is a pretty effective way to do it and I think that's another way to build more marsh.


What's more, it's not just individual houses left over from 2 to 4 generations ago.

It's entire sub-divisions of brand new homes from maybe 1 to 15 years old, which the government allowed to be zoned and developed below flood zone.

It's as if the state and federal governments have been planning this for decades or something, just as a way to screw people over.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Yes, it will. But will you? Will the current species of plants and animals that we depend upon for food? How about the plants an animals we depend upon that defend our food? What about the climate that was keeping pests and disease at bay for large segments of the population? What about fresh water supplies? Rainfall? Droughts? Floods? Other extreme weather events?

You're not actually thinking that a climate change will not affect the human race are you?

Every major climate change on the planet whether warming or cooling has resulted in an extinction event of some sort.


Don't take what i said out of context.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Life will indure a little heat up as it has indured snowball earthed and extreme heat periods and massive meteor strikes.


It's not a little heat up. Even a couple degrees is significant. DO you have any idea how much energy it takes to warm a planet by that much?

Life will endure. But will you? Will the current species of plants and animals that we depend upon for food? How about the plants an animals we depend upon that defend our food? What about the climate that was keeping pests and disease at bay for large segments of the population? What about fresh water supplies? Rainfall? Droughts? Floods? Other extreme weather events?

You're not actually thinking that a climate change will not affect the human race are you?

Every major climate change on the planet whether warming or cooling has resulted in an extinction event of some sort.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
So, I suppose anyone in the Louisiana area has heard of the latest government rape of the people?

In Walker, they will now be mandating people buy flood insurance, which according to the News yesterday, the price is going to start anywhere from 1100 to 4000 per year.

Now this is just how our government works.

Correct thing to have done 30 years ago:

Ban all new construction in flood zones 30 years ago.

or

Simply pass a "build at your own risk law".

What they did:

Nothing.


Now this created a problem in that FEMA and other government disaster relief programs are constantly out of money.

So now, instead of solving the problem, what they have done is pass an insurance law which is essentially a "poor tax".

Wealthy people can easily afford to move someplace else, where they won't have to pay the flood insurance, and ultimately save money over the long term. Poor and average people cannot, because of initial costs of land values, etc, so they get screwed and will have to pay what looks to be about 10% of their income just in flood insurance.



So lets' recap what the government did.

1, Create a problem:

Allow people to build houses and apartments in a flood zone.

2, Wait many years, then point out the problem THEY created:

"Well, the government can't pay for disaster relief all the time..."

3, Create a "Solution" to the problem they created, which is no better than the original problem:

i.e. "Tax" all the people who moved into the flood zones, which the government allowed to happen.

BTW, if this is legal under the U.S. and state constitutions, then there's no good reason "Obama care" wouldn't be legal.

Force you to buy flood insurance, force you to buy public medical insurance, what's the difference?


Even as high a price as 1000 to 4000 per year is for premiums, it will not solve the FEMA crisis because it would take 25 to 100 years for those premiums to pay for the house or apartment, and in all likelihood, a 30 to 50 year flood in some of these locations is all that will be needed to cause at least some significant damage, of which we are now over-due...
that's unconstitutional, you know, this is pretty low because I'm not sure how much walker floods, I know it's on my way to baton rouge. I don't like tht one bit, personally, the still uninhabited parts of Louisiana near the river need to have yearly in put of river water, basically, try to recreate what we have stopped.

I find it interesting that in 03 the opened a part of the levee in plaquemines parish and it never made more land until last years major spring flooding, they had a HUGE area of new land, this is a pretty effective way to do it and I think that's another way to build more marsh.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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