Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

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Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.


Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."


Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.

Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.

"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.


Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherh98:


I go to a catholic school for that reason


Not everyone can afford that, maybe the gov't should pay for that too?

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Quoting Skeptic33:




http://www.real-science.com/rino-climate-poser-sh oots-himself-in-the-foot

He's a fake republican...
I was initially skeptical of a site named "real science.com". For good reason, it appears. I got as far as "Joe Bastardi knows this guy." and some babbling about the lack of hockey sticks in China and gave up. It was ill-formated word salad with a treasure map of links that I'm supposed to blindly click on in the hopes that this one is the one to back up the claims.

But thanks for sharing.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 234
This is what humanity is. You may as well get used to it and grow up. Your parents need to grow up and get an education too.

I used to be like you in a lot of ways, well I went to public school, and thank God for that. You're going to regret what's being done to you 10 years or so from now when you're old enough to really understand.


I was raised a lot like you, from what I've seen, and I'm warning you, 10, 15 years from now, you'll finally wake up when you realized you fell off a cliff somewhere and have nothing that works in the real world.

What you get in your so-called christian home school and your so-called christian church isn't real kid. I wish I could tell you otherwise, but it's nothing more than a ponzi scheme, and an emotional and social bondage, even at the BEST of them.

The government should ban home schooling, because public school is a bout the only chance a lot of kids get to see just how stupid and insane their radical conservative parents really are.

I know you think you're parents know everything, because who else is a kid or a young teen going to trust, but they don't.


Can we stay on topic with the weather please? There is no need for hatred or tension here on a weather blog. We all have 1 thing in common, and that is a love for weather. Please refrain from comments not weather related. Now I remember why I left WU before. It's sad that people can't grow up and behave respectably. I bet that you wouldn't say that to someone's face, would you RTS.

Oh, and by the way, RTS, you misspelled your. Maybe public schooling didn't help you after all. :D

I know you think you're parents know everything, because who else is a kid or a young teen going to trust, but they don't.
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"At precisely two minutes and twenty-six seconds after midnight March 30, 2012 there was an incredibly powerful bolt of lightning in the vicinity of Woodward, Oklahoma that spawned these red sprites," says Ashcraft. "I could see them from two states away!"
From spaceweather.com
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Quoting Neapolitan:
--More record daily highs have been broken (not tied) across the United States in the past two days alone--666--than there have been record daily lows broken since January 1 (429).

--Yesterday was the 40th consecutive day in which record daily highs have outnumbered record daily lows across the U.S. It was also the 88th of 2012's 94 elapsed days that's been true, and the 109th of the last 115.

--13 of 2012's 14 weeks--92.9%--have seen more high records than low records across the U.S.

--For 2012 to-date, record highs have outnumbered record lows by a somewhat lopsided 23,094 to 1,736, or 13.3 to 1. That's 21,358 more high records than low records this year, an overage that wasn't reached last year until the second week of August.

--Since January 1 of 2011, record highs have outnumbered record lows by 79,416 to 27,094.


You truly are terrible at this stuff.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/65421223? searchTerm=greenland%20vikings&searchLimits=

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523. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:


No jobs then

All Current NOAA Job openings:

USAJOBS
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Going to be one heck of an exciting day in Texas today
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what's the difference between a troll and a disrespectful, rude, and ignorant 13yr old?
about 3-4 yrs of age...
there is no place for these comments being quoted. please ignore and do not quote trolls.
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Quoting CJ5:


Wow, I cannot tell if you are taking a swipe at homeschooling or religion. Either way, you are pretty sanctimonious about both.


the two often go hand in hand anyway, which clearly in SPLBeater's case that appears to be true.


I don't have a problem with God or "religion" as people call it in theory.

The problem is church is quite frankly fake.

I don't have a problem with God, but the fact is, when you really examine the situation, the modern interpretation and application of conservative Christianity, both Catholic and protestant, is one of the leading drivers of social bondage and poverty in this nation.


The Bible is at best a corrupted, mis-interpreted, and poorly maintained text.

Now if I take John 1,1 seriously, in that God is "Logos", the rational principle that governs the Universe...then when I look around and find that the majority of scientific knowledge undermines in at least some way the first and most important book of the Bible, being Genesis, then I have a serious problem.

One book of the Bible declares that God is the rational principle that governs the universe, while another book declares that God made the Earth, the Sun, and the universe in a way and time period which as yet, cannot be substantiated by much of any evidence whatsoever, and in deed is in fact directly contradicted by almost every empirical fact ever discovered, then there is a problem, obviously.


Like I told SPL one of the first times I came back to this site. We don't even have to deal with millions or billions of years. We can destroy and almost totally refute every single statement in Genesis and much of the entire old Testament genealogy with just one or two paleolithic archeological dig sites, because they are at least two or three times older than the oldest possible Biblically self-consistent date that can be calculated for Adam and Eve's supposed existence.

And the only way to even attempt to reconcile that problem to reality is to then say it was a metaphor, but that doesn't actually work either, since both Jesus and John in the New Testament, as well as even their OPPONENTS all taught that these events (in Genesis) were literal events that actually happened in history.

So both the teachings of Pharisees and other Hebrew sects, and the teachings of Jesus, at least as recorded in our modern Bible, are historically inaccurate.


I'm not being sanctimonious at all.

In fact, I'm being just the opposite.

I'm absolutely sick and tired of flat out lies from the allegedly Christian church, which absolutely does not have what they claim to have.
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Was a vivid Lightening Show in and around NOLA last evening as we got 4 inches here Uptown easily.

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Quoting ILwthrfan:


When I do searches on jobs at any NWS, I can't dig up any archives of job postings under the GIS category.


Go tO the office and ask for a job haha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Quoting SPLbeater:
RTS...idk why im responding, but...

I aint in a public school because of the trash they are teaching kids, and how some teachers arent doing ANYTHING about students behavior. i dont want to hear the cursing and and the inappropriate talk in public school.



um...


I go to a catholic school for that reason
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting ILwthrfan:


When I do searches on jobs at any NWS, I can't dig up any archives of job postings under the GIS category.


Link
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.."if my wings should fail me Lord, please meet me with another,...pair"..
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--More record daily highs have been broken (not tied) across the United States in the past two days alone--666--than there have been record daily lows broken since January 1 (429).

--Yesterday was the 40th consecutive day in which record daily highs have outnumbered record daily lows across the U.S. It was also the 88th of 2012's 94 elapsed days that's been true, and the 109th of the last 115.

--13 of 2012's 14 weeks--92.9%--have seen more high records than low records across the U.S.

--For 2012 to-date, record highs have outnumbered record lows by a somewhat lopsided 23,094 to 1,736, or 13.3 to 1. That's 21,358 more high records than low records this year, an overage that wasn't reached last year until the second week of August.

--Since January 1 of 2011, record highs have outnumbered record lows by 79,416 to 27,094.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13276
Quoting Naga5000:


Way to overgeneralize.
Quoting Naga5000:


Way to overgeneralize.


Quoting SPLbeater:
RTS...idk why im responding, but...

I aint in a public school because of the trash they are teaching kids, and how some teachers arent doing ANYTHING about students behavior. i dont want to hear the cursing and and the inappropriate talk in public school.



um...
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510. CJ5
Quoting RTSplayer:
[q]However, most people want the government to provide those things and thus where we find ourself today.[/q]

That's not true.

I've never met ANYONE who wanted to be on government assistance programs if they had a choice.

The reason there are so many government assistance programs is because people can't find a job that actually pays a decent living, in many cases even people with bachelors and associates degrees cannot get a job at all right now.

.


You are right that the job market is tough. You are wrong about everything else. You whole tone speaks volumes about who is to blame. Let me give you a clue; Citizens are to blame.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Maybe but it's worth a try. I would ask about that as you never know they may need someone with your skills.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Maybe but it's worth a try. I would ask about that as you never know they may need someone with your skills.



When I do searches on jobs at any NWS, I can't dig up any archives of job postings under the GIS category.
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It's 11:30am and it's 87 with a dewpoint of 68. Going to be a very hot day today. Average by the way in Orlando is 80.
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507. CJ5
Quoting RTSplayer:


This is what humanity is. You may as well get used to it and grow up. Your parents need to grow up and get an education too.

I used to be like you in a lot of ways, well I went to public school, and thank God for that. You're going to regret what's being done to you 10 years or so from now when you're old enough to really understand.


I was raised a lot like you, from what I've seen, and I'm warning you, 10, 15 years from now, you'll finally wake up when you realized you fell off a cliff somewhere and have nothing that works in the real world.

What you get in your so-called christian home school and your so-called christian church isn't real kid. I wish I could tell you otherwise, but it's nothing more than a ponzi scheme, and an emotional and social bondage, even at the BEST of them.

The government should ban home schooling, because public school is a bout the only chance a lot of kids get to see just how stupid and insane their radical conservative parents really are.

I know you think you're parents know everything, because who else is a kid or a young teen going to trust, but they don't.


Wow, I cannot tell if you are taking a swipe at homeschooling or religion. Either way, you are pretty sanctimonious about both.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


I was curious, I have a Bachelor's in GIS and noticed that the NWS is starting to implement that into their formats. I was hoping they may be hiring GIS analysts to help them incorporate that, but they may just do that in house.


That's exactly what I'm wondering.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


I was curious, I have a Bachelor's in GIS and noticed that the NWS is starting to implement that into their formats. I was hoping they may be hiring GIS analysts to help them incorporate that, but they may just do that in house.


Maybe but it's worth a try. I would ask about that as you never know they may need someone with your skills.

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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning to you..I think he does the T.V. thingy..:)...OCM..


I was curious, I have a Bachelor's in GIS and noticed that the NWS is starting to implement that into their formats. I was hoping they may be hiring GIS analysts to help them incorporate that, but they may just do that in house.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
[q]However, most people want the government to provide those things and thus where we find ourself today.[/q]

That's not true.

I've never met ANYONE who wanted to be on government assistance programs if they had a choice.

The reason there are so many government assistance programs is because people can't find a job that actually pays a decent living, in many cases even people with bachelors and associates degrees cannot get a job at all right now.

Even people graduating from technical schools right now have about an 18% unemployment rate, even in the middle of what was a tech boom.

Why?

Because most of the tech problems have already been solved. Automated order/payment systems and forums and databases, and even now production and warehouses, and other such things are already mostly optimized, and so there is simply no job for somebody to program any of it.

Besides, in some cases you get better training in a 4 week free, on the job training program than you got at the tech school anyway.

So the people went to school like a "good citizen" and end up 50k in the hole in loans, and still can't get a job. Not to mention, the turnover rate in the industry is so high that you only typically keep a job for a year or two before they fire you, or before you've worked yourself out of a job for some other reason anyway.

that's why I didn't go to tech school several years back, and it turned out to be, I think, the right decision.

Knew a girl a few years back that had a 4 year college degree in computer science, and she ended up teaching an introduction to computers class for a few thousand dollars a year income. She made more money bar tending a day or two on the side than she did at a "skilled" teaching position. And she was on government assistance too.

The funny thing is, her college curriculum at SLU must have been ten times easier than mine, because I knew just from conversation with her that there was no way in hell she could have passed the math and sciences requirements for the CS curriculum at LSU.


Anyway, quite wrong man.

People don't want to be there, they're just stuck there, because that's the world we live in.
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Quoting entrelac:
Thought this was interesting considering the current topics of discussion -

Republican meteorologist Paul Douglas: conservatives should embrace climate science



Great post! Like I said eventhough I don't agree with everything Obama has during his first term he is still the better guy for job as the republicans that are running are not the brightest.
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Thought this was interesting considering the current topics of discussion -

Republican meteorologist Paul Douglas: conservatives should embrace climate science
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 234
Quoting RTSplayer:


No you can't, not really.

Why?

Because who else would buy the house when you try to sell it?

Who is going to buy a house that is going to be a liability forever?

See the problem?

The "you can move" is a cop-out and in most cases just a flat out lie.

It costs money to move, and most homeowner's life savings and entire financial reputation is tied in their home, and like I said, you an't sell something that is going to be a financial liability.

A person would be better off renting for the rest of their life, than to buy one of these homes, because the home is always going to be a liability, not an asset, and so what's the point?

"You can move": nice theory.

In reality, you can try to move, fail to make a sale, then get foreclosed and lose everything you've got either way anyway.

It's win/win for the government and banks. Lose for everyone else.


Government will buy you out whatever it's appraised as
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Quoting CJ5:


People are not responsible nor are they independent. They have allowed the government to grow so much that it requires taxes and fees to provide the services demanded.

Housing is not a right and has nothing to do with "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness". That phrase is based on individuals having the freedom to pursue those ideals. However, most people want the government to provide those things and thus where we find ourself today.


I agree on that part
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496. CJ5
Quoting RTSplayer:
Perhaps legally, but it's clear from the Declaration of Independence that everyone has a right to "life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness".

Now how can one have liberty or pursuit of happiness in a civilization where more and more people can't even afford to own their own home? They are always a wage slave to someone else: the government, the bank, the landlord, somebody.


The 14th amendment forbids involuntary servitude except as punishment for a crime (I.e. making prisoners do grounds keeping, etc, is legal.)

How much of a lower or middle class person's income must be consumed by mandatory taxes, fees, insurances, permits, etc, before they are considered an "Involuntary Servant"?

to a family that makes 100k or more, then 1 to 4k of a mandatory insurance cost probably doesn't matter much.

to a family that makes near or below mean income, which is a huge portion of people in the area being affected by this, because mean income in Louisiana is in most sectors 5k to 10k below the national mean, then its devastating. It's a 10% to maybe 15% wage garnishment for mean income earners.


People are not responsible nor are they independent. They have allowed the government to grow so much that it requires taxes and fees to provide the services demanded.

Housing is not a right and has nothing to do with "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness". That phrase is based on individuals having the freedom to pursue those ideals. However, most people want the government to provide those things and thus where we find ourself today.
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495. CJ5
Quoting RTSplayer:
BR>
BTW, if this is legal under the U.S. and state constitutions, then there's no good reason "Obama care" wouldn't be legal.

Force you to buy flood insurance, force you to buy public medical insurance, what's the difference?


...


You are not forced, you can move.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


are you homeschooled?


yes.
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492. CJ5
Quoting RitaEvac:


Bottom line is to exterminate the poor and low end middle class. That's why college tuition keeps going thru the roof, they only want the rich to be educated. It's like soilent green but in a different way.


That is absurd.
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Quoting SteveDa1:
I find this interesting...

Does anyone hold a clue as to what might have been causing the delay (compared to average) in the start of the melting season for the past couple of years? This year seems to be no exception as well.

This probably has no significant effect on the melting season since last year's September extent was very close to the record low. I actually still strongly believe we will be very close to the record low this year for obvious reasons. I just find it peculiar that the melting of the ice seems to be delayed by a probable cause...

What if in one of the next couple of years, the ice starts to melt very early as opposed to recent years? Will the record low get obliterated by as much as 500,000km^2? (questions thrown in the air... no need for an answer)

Here's a recent conjecture from NASA's Earth Observatory:

"On average, Arctic sea ice has historically peaked around March 6, but the maximum extent has tended to occur later in the month in recent years. The cause for the later peak is unknown, but NSIDC's Walt Meier suspects it might be related to the minimum sea ice extents that occur each September.

"There are constraints on how long Arctic sea ice can keep growing in late March," Meier says, citing springtime sunlight and rising temperatures. "But since Arctic sea ice has melted so much in the summers, it could be that the ice has more room to grow at the end of the season." Over the last decade, Arctic sea ice extents in September have set record lows three times, and the 2011 minimum nearly tied the 2007 record low."

Meier points out something else about Arctic sea ice extent. "The nine lowest maximum extents have occurred in the last nine years, since 2004," he says.

Although Arctic sea ice has continued to grow later in the season, the ice has been thin—only about 10 to 30 centimeters (4 to 12 inches) thick at most, Meier explains. "So it will all melt away very quickly. I don’t expect the late-season growth spurt to have a big effect on sea ice extent next summer."
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13276
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



So i suppose i know nothing since i never went to public school.

So soooo Sad :(


are you homeschooled?
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting reedzone:
SPLbeater, this is a very liberal blog, please watch what you say when it comes to religion or the "Anointed One".


i could tell this was a liberal blog a month after i joined. I guess thats why i am seen as the 'bad guy' to alot of people here. Makes me wonder sometimes. But my family enjoys my blogs so im still here, lol
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Yes. I use it heavily. At least several times a week, if not several times a day.


I need to contact Houston NWS, I live right near it. Wonder if NWS actually have full time GIS staff, do they?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually... watch TX later today ;)


This is the same disturbance that brought you rain yesterday.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


So they have ESRI ArcMap at the NWS?


Yes. I use it heavily. At least several times a week, if not several times a day.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
Quoting RTSplayer:


right...




Point of advice:

Quit your home schooling and enroll yourself in a real school somewhere, so you can actually learn something.






So i suppose i know nothing since i never went to public school.

So soooo Sad :(
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy it is going to be interesting this afternoon across C & N FL especailly with an upper air disturbance coming in from the Gulf.

src="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/mlb/ adas/convective_parms.gif">


Mid Late Afternoon Storms Interior
Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow both east and west coast sea breezes to form and push toward the middle of the state. The sea breezes are expected to collide over an area from around Lake George and Pierson in Northwest Volusia south to the Orlando area and Lake Kissimmee. Colder temperatures aloft at around 15, 000 feet will enhance the potential for storms that will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, small hail and frequent lightning from late afternoon through the sunset time frame.

Posted by Bob Wimmer


Actually... watch TX later today ;)
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Quoting LargoFl:
I kinda agree with your point there, building on a known flood plain should be stopped, then again they want every slice of dirt, covered in concrete so they can get more taxes and then they get their pay raises..


This is the same state (Louisiana) where people were allowed to build at elevations lower than the emergency spillway of a lake that was built in the 1950s for flood control/water supply. Now when their homes flood, it can be called "flooding" even though the filling of a flood control reservoir is typically just called "flood control." There is now a push to construct a new spillway at the reservoir to let more water through and minimize the chance of it rising high enough to flood homes. Of course allowing more water through will reduce its effectiveness at being a flood control reservoir.

Somewhere along the chain, someone probably dropped the ball. Unfortunate for residents to be caught in on it nonetheless.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
Quoting ScottLincoln:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScottLincoln/sho w.html
:)


So they have ESRI ArcMap at the NWS?
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Quoting SPLbeater:
RTS...idk why im responding, but...

I aint in a public school because of the trash they are teaching kids, and how some teachers arent doing ANYTHING about students behavior. i dont want to hear the cursing and and the inappropriate talk in public school.

That sir, is why I am homeschooled :D


Way to overgeneralize.
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I find this interesting...

Does anyone hold a clue as to what might have been causing the delay (compared to average) of the start of the melting season for the past couple of years? Also, this year seems to be no exception.

This probably has no significant effect on the melting season since last year's September extent was very close to the record low. I actually still strongly believe the Arctic ice extent will be extremely close to the record low this year for obvious reasons (ie: low volume, plenty of one-year ice). I just find it peculiar that the melting of the ice seems to be delayed by a probable cause...

What if in one of the next couple of years, the ice starts to melt very early as opposed to recent years? Will the record low get obliterated by as much as 500,000km^2 or even 750,000km^2? (questions thrown in the air... no need for an answer)

Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
Boy it is going to be interesting this afternoon across C & N FL especailly with an upper air disturbance coming in from the Gulf.

Mid Late Afternoon Storms Interior
Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow both east and west coast sea breezes to form and push toward the middle of the state. The sea breezes are expected to collide over an area from around Lake George and Pierson in Northwest Volusia south to the Orlando area and Lake Kissimmee. Colder temperatures aloft at around 15, 000 feet will enhance the potential for storms that will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, small hail and frequent lightning from late afternoon through the sunset time frame.

Posted by Bob Wimmer


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FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
928 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ARKANSAS...

OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION AFFECTING
CALHOUN...UNION AND BRADLEY COUNTIES


RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
FORECASTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING PERIODS OF
FLOODING...EVENING FORECASTS ARE REISSUED WITH UPDATED RAINFALL
FORECASTS.

OBSERVED AND FORECASTED STAGE DATA PLOTS ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE WEB PAGE AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION...SELECT RIVER AND LAKES AHPS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

EVERYONE WITH PROPERTY OR OTHER INTEREST ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER FORECAST. SHOULD CONDITIONS
CHANGE...LOOK FOR RIVER FORECAST OR FLOOD WARNINGS FOR USE IN MAKING
INFORMED DECISIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.


&&

ARC011-013-139-040528-
/O.CON.KLZK.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CALA4.1.ER.120321T1915Z.120330T1200Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
928 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OUACHITA RIVER AT THATCHER LOCK AND DAM NEAR CALION.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:00 AM TUESDAY THE WATER ELEVATION WAS 84.1 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD ELEVATION IS 79.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AN ELEVATION OF 83.5
FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.



&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME WED THU FRI SAT SUN

OUACHITA RIVER
THATCHER L 79 84.1 TUE 07 AM 83.5 83.0 82.4 81.8 81.2

$$
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.