Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

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Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.


Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."


Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.

Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.

"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.


Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Jeff Masters

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The graphic above shows an "elve" a ring of energy above the red sprite. It reminds me of a missile launch I saw that appeared to "punch a hole" in a layer of the atmosphere which created a glowing ring as it passed through. It was the last Titain launch from Cape Kennedy, and it was at night. Anyone see this or know what the glowing ring effect was caused by (other than a rocket punching through of course). It was awesome to watch. So bright it was like the sun came up. It vibrated the water with sound and all the mullett woke up in the lagoon and started jumping like mad.
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Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


Red sprites and Blue Jets, are they the same with positively charged lightning bolt as opposed to a negatively charged one?

I heard about this in the Discovery Channel program Raging Planet: Lightning a long time ago. Also, I think Skye posted an article about gamma radiation (or was it antimatter?) measurement from the top of a thunderstorm which had something to do with those phenomenon

Here's a link with some good basic information
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So! (Snow,)
If anybody can be bothered to copy and paste it:-

http://news.uk.msn.com/in-pictures-spring-snow-hi ts-the-uk

The Cold Damp Island, ( CDI) as some of we from it, call it, from time to time, is about to have a winter in spring, having just had a bit of summer in winter.
They will be screaming " so much for global warming?" Which of course is probably what it is but at least when the cold white stuff melts it will dampen the ground, if not sufficient to put a trickle in some of the dried up rivers!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good afternoon to all.

The drought in Sahel has been very bad for many people over there.Let's hope that it ends very soon to aliviate what they are going thru. And of course,we have to see how this drought plays a roll in terms of the upcomming Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Link

Good afternoon Tropicsweatherpr.....thanks for the link.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8472
This includes Forth Worth, Dallas, and Waco


WOUS64 KWNS 031705
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-161-193 -213-217-221-
223-231-251-257-281-289-293-309-331-349-367-379-39 5-397-425-439-
467-497-040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.120403T1710Z-120404T0100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON
HENDERSON HILL HOOD
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
NAVARRO PARKER RAINS
ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SOMERVELL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE


ATTN...WFO...FWD...
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Quoting BobWallace:


You talking about that "The Earth is Only Six Thousand Years Old" drawing?

I love that one, it's funny. But someone should add some text on the far left side about Adam and Eve ridding dinosaurs.

Hah! But I'd settle for some text on the far left side indicating the y-axis units used in the graph. I'd also like to know what is "Nomanic time" shown at the bottom of the first dip. I'd also like to know why such a smooth curve is used, as that looks nothing like any temperature chart I've ever seen. I'd also like to know why the chart only goes back to 2500 BCE. I'd also like to know the source of the data on which the chart is based, as it's not shown. And, finally, I'd like to know why Cliff Harris calls himself a climatologist when he wasn't trained as one, and why Randy Mann calls himself a meteorologist when he wasn't trained as one.

Other than that, though: cool chart. :-\
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Quoting BobWallace:


Correct.

And has someone pointed out that building in flood plains is a local government decision while bailing out those people who get flooded gets kicked back to the federal government?


They don't get bailed out unless they have bought flood insurance.
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Quoting TropicTraveler:

The first time I ever heard of red sprites was here on weather underground. I assume these are the small spikes coming through the clouds around the lightening bolts. I'd love to hear more about these.


Red sprites and Blue Jets, are they the same with positively charged lightning bolt as opposed to a negatively charged one?

I heard about this in the Discovery Channel program Raging Planet: Lightning a long time ago. Also, I think Skye posted an article about gamma radiation (or was it antimatter?) measurement from the top of a thunderstorm which had something to do with those phenomenon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Found the research. It was on Giant Jets over the South China Sea.

Video footage shot by Han-Tzong Su and Rue-Ron Hsu of the National Cheng Kung University in Taiwan and colleagues shows five jets shooting more than 70 km above the clouds - the first evidence for such phenomena. According to the team, each jet could transfer 30 coulombs of negative charge from the clouds to the ionosphere (H T Su et al 2003 Nature 423 974).

I can't search video at work but I know it's out there. The info above should point you in the right direction if you're interested.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132...

VALID 031647Z - 031845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WRN FRINGES OF THE WATCH...WITH AN INCREASE IN STORMS NOW
ONGOING JUST S OF THE DFW METROPLEX.

DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SOME HEATING OF THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE NERN TX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
RESULTED IN LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION -- WHICH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH TIME. ALONG WITH CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO
ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE -- AS SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL FURTHER INCREASES IN THE FAVORABLY SHEARED/DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THIS...UPGRADE OF ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF WW 132
TO A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY...WITH THIS THREAT LIKELY
SPREADING INTO NERN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 04/03/2012


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
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Quoting hydrus:
Link...First color image of a sprite. It was obtained during a 1994 NASA/University of Alaska aircraft campaign to study sprites. The event was captured using an intensified color TV camera. The red color was subsequently determined to be from nitrogen fluorescent emissions excited by a lightning stroke in the underlying thunderstorm.Upper atmospheric lightning and electrical discharge phenomena infographic


AWESOME!!
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Quoting hydrus:
Link...First color image of a sprite. It was obtained during a 1994 NASA/University of Alaska aircraft campaign to study sprites. The event was captured using an intensified color TV camera. The red color was subsequently determined to be from nitrogen fluorescent emissions excited by a lightning stroke in the underlying thunderstorm.Upper atmospheric lightning and electrical discharge phenomena infographic
Wasn't there some research into these phenomena a few years ago synching radio and visual recordings over distance. I'm thinking in Japan...

Gah, the details escape me right now but the write-up on the research was fascinating. Hopefully it rings some bells with someone else.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Truly terrible at giving verifiable statistics? Feel free to look them up yourself: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/ (Mathematics and scientific facts are involved, so please let me know if you need help.)

As to that ridiculous chart you've posted yet again: do you think you could maybe reproduce a graphic from an actual science site, not one from that pair of wingnuts over at LRW who appear to have failed both statistics and climatology (and probably Excel Charts 101, as well)?


You talking about that "The Earth is Only Six Thousand Years Old" drawing?

I love that one, it's funny. But someone should add some text on the far left side about Adam and Eve ridding dinosaurs.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Good afternoon to all.

The drought in Sahel has been very bad for many people over there.Let's hope that it ends very soon to aliviate what they are going thru. And of course,we have to see how this drought plays a roll in terms of the upcomming Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Link
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Quoting TropicTraveler:

The first time I ever heard of red sprites was here on weather underground. I assume these are the small spikes coming through the clouds around the lightening bolts. I'd love to hear more about these.
Link...First color image of a sprite. It was obtained during a 1994 NASA/University of Alaska aircraft campaign to study sprites. The event was captured using an intensified color TV camera. The red color was subsequently determined to be from nitrogen fluorescent emissions excited by a lightning stroke in the underlying thunderstorm.Upper atmospheric lightning and electrical discharge phenomena infographic
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Quoting entrelac:
There are some wonderful videos of red sprites and blue jets on youtube if you want to see more.

I'm off to read more about these. Thanks!
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The tornado risk is now 10%:
almost negative with a nice jet streak:


couldnt find any nice hodographs for today.
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the earth where it and us come from

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
April 2, 2011

April 2, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8472
Quoting TropicTraveler:

The first time I ever heard of red sprites was here on weather underground. I assume these are the small spikes coming through the clouds around the lightening bolts. I'd love to hear more about these.
There are some wonderful videos of red sprites and blue jets on youtube if you want to see more.
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Quoting MrBoujangles:

"At precisely two minutes and twenty-six seconds after midnight March 30, 2012 there was an incredibly powerful bolt of lightning in the vicinity of Woodward, Oklahoma that spawned these red sprites," says Ashcraft. "I could see them from two states away!"
From spaceweather.com

The first time I ever heard of red sprites was here on weather underground. I assume these are the small spikes coming through the clouds around the lightening bolts. I'd love to hear more about these.
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Quoting CJ5:


You see, with all of the great minds in the world and the boat load of scientific knowledge you cannot disprove that God made heaven and earth.
Of course not; one can't disprove a negative. No one can disprove that we weren't created just 100 years ago by, say, a giant purple sky-dwelling lizard, either. But I'll say this much: the evidence is quite weak either way. ;-)
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550. CJ5
Quoting RTSplayer:


In what way? Can you elaborate?

How is a person to blame when they went to college and did everything that was allegedly expected of them, and still can't get a real job?




The unemployment rate for those with a college degree is 3.9%. It could go lower but it has certainly been higher.

How is anyone to blame when they go to one college, which has a curriculum that nobody actually passes, while another college gives the same degree for what amounts to a high school education?

If I knew SLU gave the same degree for essentially all the classes I tested out of, then why the hell did I bother with LSU and multiple semesters of classes that only a handful of people actually managed to pass?


How was that my fault?

And how was it her fault in her situation?

Please elaborate and enlighten everyone.




It is your fault because you made the choice. No one forced you into LSU. You went for a reason and are now bitter because it appears you made a bad choice.

I have a cousin who barely graduated high school with about a 1-point something GPA, didn't go to college, and dropped out of tech school, and he knows more about computers than anyone else I ever met in my life, including the useless professors and staff at LSU.

He now makes more money than anyone else I know in the extended family, including RNs, with one exception being my brother-in-law who is practically filthy rich selling auto parts...with nothing but a high school diploma, hell, he's making about as much money as state senators now, maybe more...

I could do that auto parts job easy. There's nothing to it really, and would be piss easy compared to any job I've ever had, and it's a simple 9 to 5 day job to boot! He doesn't even upsale stuff!


Sounds like you are jelly. They are successful because the found something they could do good at, and probably enjoy, and they worked to be successful. That has nothing to do with you. It is not your fault they are successful nor is it thier fault you are not.

a certain family connection that helped him get the position, but anybody that can read and write could do that job.


Time and chance guy.



This one sentance speaks volumes about you and your attitude. You have blamed everyone but yourself. I suggest you start taking responsibility for yourself and quit looking around for someone or something to blame.

You need to find something you enjoy, find something you are good at and go be the best at it you can be. Quit relying on a degree or the right place at the right time attitude and go make something of yourself.
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Quoting CJ5:


You see, with all of the great minds in the world and the boat load of scientific knowledge you cannot disprove that God made heaven and earth. The good news for you is that Christians, and basically every other religion in the world, cannot prove it. The only difference between the two is who has faith in what.


You don't really understand my position here, but honestly it'd take like a 3000 page autobiography to really do it justice, I guess.


I still believe in God, because I still hold the position that nature is just too perfect in many regards to have been any sort of accident or to have not been designed, and I still believe many principles in the Bible, but there's no way to believe in infallibility or inspiration, that's for darn sure.


Personal struggle with this sort of thing is always a lot more complicated than people seem to be able to express or understand on the surface.
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Good morning all!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8472
New Understanding to Past Global Warming Events: Hyperthermal Events May Be Triggered by Warming
Another interesting article that showed up in my feed this morning.

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Quoting fireflymom:
Requesting more Weather talk and much less Religion/Politics please.


There's gonna be some bans handed out tonight! LOL, maybe not. Anyways guys,

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
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Getting this 'sea ice/slush' into perspective is one of the big problems of people understanding the situation.
I tried this example out recently when confronted by the argument of "there is a larger amount of Ice this year, than we have seen for some time, 'so where's the warming'?"
If you have an aerial, or better a satellite photo of a country and it is covered in snow it basically all looks white, no matter if the snow is a few inches thick or a few feet thick!
This is what we are confronted with at the moment, the ice is visible but very soon can become invisible/water again. Its thickness is the vital statistic, not its extent?
If the sea ice is an inch thick, or 3 foot thick it still shows up as ice on the photos but one is semi permanent and the other is transient.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2179
Quoting Skeptic33:


You truly are terrible at this stuff.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/65421223? searchTerm=greenland%20vikings&searchLimits=

Truly terrible at giving verifiable statistics? Feel free to look them up yourself: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/ (Mathematics and scientific facts are involved, so please let me know if you need help.)

As to that ridiculous chart you've posted yet again: do you think you could maybe reproduce a graphic from an actual science site, not one from that pair of wingnuts over at LRW who appear to have failed both statistics and climatology (and probably Excel Charts 101, as well)?
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Quoting Skeptic33:


You truly are terrible at this stuff.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/65421223? searchTerm=greenland%20vikings&searchLimits=



Are you serious? Even if your graph was correct, your argument is extremely out of place.

You are presenting an argument about temperature trends over the last 4500 years (which looks very unprofessional) against daily temperature records experienced in the U.S. only over the past year.

Okay...
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Quoting Skeptic33:




http://www.real-science.com/rino-climate-poser-sh oots-himself-in-the-foot

He's a fake republican...


Real America. Real Republicans. Real this. Real that. Hard to fit under that big tent when you don't match the cookie-cutter. Maybe it is Mr. Douglas's prerogative to decide what he is?

And did you seriously just link to a site that used Joe Bastardi as the rebuttal argument to Paul Douglas?
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Requesting more Weather talk and much less Religion/Politics please.
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Quoting Skeptic33:




http://www.real-science.com/rino-climate-poser-sh oots-himself-in-the-foot

He's a fake republican...


Should he show any common sense, scientific knowledge and a desire to be environmentally sound, then yes. He is certainly a fake Republican, but only by what defines today's Republican.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


When I do searches on jobs at any NWS, I can't dig up any archives of job postings under the GIS category.


It would be nice for some specialists like that at our regional offices, but I think they have meteorology or physical science degrees as the base requirement, and then GIS as a bonus skill.

GIS has probably been a lacking skill in the met field for some time, at least in my opinion. Most of the standard met software is far behind in GIS capabilities.
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538. CJ5
Quoting RTSplayer:


I'm absolutely sick and tired of flat out lies from the allegedly Christian church, which absolutely does not have what they claim to have.


You see, with all of the great minds in the world and the boat load of scientific knowledge you cannot disprove that God made heaven and earth. The good news for you is that Christians, and basically every other religion in the world, cannot prove it. The only difference between the two is who has faith in what.
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Quoting SteveDa1:
I find this interesting...

Does anyone hold a clue as to what might have been causing the delay (compared to average) of the start of the melting season for the past couple of years? Also, this year seems to be no exception.

This probably has no significant effect on the melting season since last year's September extent was very close to the record low. I actually still strongly believe the Arctic ice extent will be extremely close to the record low this year for obvious reasons (ie: low volume, plenty of one-year ice). I just find it peculiar that the melting of the ice seems to be delayed by a probable cause...

What if in one of the next couple of years, the ice starts to melt very early as opposed to recent years? Will the record low get obliterated by as much as 500,000km^2 or even 750,000km^2? (questions thrown in the air... no need for an answer)



I'm not sure it has been entirely figured out yet, but the important thing to remember is that it has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the summer minimums. That is why I hypothesize that we will see a rate of melt near the average of the last half-decade, which would again put it near the record melt rate of the entire satellite record.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


I need to contact Houston NWS, I live right near it. Wonder if NWS actually have full time GIS staff, do they?


I think there are meteorologists with GIS experience that work at many different offices. We also have several of them at our regional headquarters. I do not know of a centralized office with many GIS-centered personnel.
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From WFO FFC( Peachtree City Georgia)


Georgia Weather History for April 3rd

In 1974, the super tornado outbreak occurred. During this 24 hour outbreak, 148 tornadoes occurred across most of the Midwest and Southeast. In Georgia, there were nine tornadoes.
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Quoting CJ5:


You are right that the job market is tough. You are wrong about everything else. You whole tone speaks volumes about who is to blame. Let me give you a clue; Citizens are to blame.


In what way? Can you elaborate?

How is a person to blame when they went to college and did everything that was allegedly expected of them, and still can't get a real job?


How is anyone to blame when they go to one college, which has a curriculum that nobody actually passes, while another college gives the same degree for what amounts to a high school education?

If I knew SLU gave the same degree for essentially all the classes I tested out of, then why the hell did I bother with LSU and multiple semesters of classes that only a handful of people actually managed to pass?


How was that my fault?

And how was it her fault in her situation?

Please elaborate and enlighten everyone.


why are you required to take 5 to 10 math and science courses that you will never use again in your life just to get a bachelors degree, that almost every half-decent job in existence now requires, even though nothing you had to do to get the degree is relevant to the job?


I have a cousin who barely graduated high school with about a 1-point something GPA, didn't go to college, and dropped out of tech school, and he knows more about computers than anyone else I ever met in my life, including the useless professors and staff at LSU.

He now makes more money than anyone else I know in the extended family, including RNs, with one exception being my brother-in-law who is practically filthy rich selling auto parts...with nothing but a high school diploma, hell, he's making about as much money as state senators now, maybe more...

I could do that auto parts job easy. There's nothing to it really, and would be piss easy compared to any job I've ever had, and it's a simple 9 to 5 day job to boot! He doesn't even upsale stuff!

How is that my fault either? He happened to be in the right place at the right time, and have a certain family connection that helped him get the position, but anybody that can read and write could do that job.


Time and chance guy.

I can't fault them for their good fortune, but I hope you see the point.

No skill or fault involved.

My aptitude tests are probably close to as high as the two of them combined, and I can't seem to get a position like that to save my life. Half the time can't even get the damn interview, never mind get hired.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012
< A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...

That'll permanently part your hair if you get hit.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Indeed. When you vote anti-regulation types into office, you can't later complain that your were harmed by a lack of regulation. Caveat emptor.


Correct.

And has someone pointed out that building in flood plains is a local government decision while bailing out those people who get flooded gets kicked back to the federal government?
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

TXC143-221-363-367-031630-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-120403T1630Z/
ERATH TX-HOOD TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-
1104 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN PARKER...EASTERN PALO PINTO...NORTHWESTERN HOOD AND
NORTH CENTRAL ERATH COUNTIES...

AT 1104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LIPAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


If Obama Care goes into effect the Retired Military personal are not going to be happy as Tri Care is about the best insurance out there. Force me to abandon my Tri Care for S*** insurance I don't think so buddy! Madating insurance at an overrated price is just another way for the government to make money so that we can pay for all of these bail outs to all of these large companys that Obama gave money to that went under.


From Military.com

"The passage of the Health Care Reform Act raised the issue of military families and survivors of veterans seeing health care costs rise or worse. Based on preliminary reading of the final act it appears these fears were unfounded."

http://www.military.com/benefits/content/tricare/ understanding-the-affects-of-health-care-reform-on -tricare.html

--

Your connection between health insurance and bank bailouts does not connect....

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting entrelac:
Thought this was interesting considering the current topics of discussion -

Republican meteorologist Paul Douglas: conservatives should embrace climate science
i'm glad someone posted this. Paul Douglas is a staple of our area and very well respected. this is a very good read!!
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Quoting weatherh98:


I go to a catholic school for that reason


Not everyone can afford that, maybe the gov't should pay for that too?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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