Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

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Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.


Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."


Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.

Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.

"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.


Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


SSTs aren't the only thing we are worried about when it comes to activity. If you'll notice the continued heating along the Equatorial Pacific, you'll see that our high probability of an El Nino is gaining steam.
Of course.

SST anomalies in our basin as well as those in other basins (particularly the tropical Pacific) are also important (whether it be the PDO, AMO, Atlantic tripole, Gulf of Guinea, or IDO). Aside SST anomalies, rainfall patterns over Africa (partially influenced by SST anomalies), the longwave pattern over the extratropics (also influenced by SST anomalies), or the presence of the MJO (again influenced by SST anomalies) are all important.

As you can see, global SST anomalies have a large influence on atmospheric anomalies...and vice versa. This describes the coupled ocean-atmosphere.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


However,the new version CFSv2 goes to Moderate El Nino by October.



maybe I want to see what plays out the next couple of weeks before I will 100% agree with that
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


However,the new version CFSv2 goes to Moderate El Nino by October.



You beat me to it!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Damm the Euro shows a freeze all the way down to S GA. at days 9 & 10. I highly doubt that based on the pattern so far this Winter and now Spring. Expect to see this change in later runs.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting MariettaMoon:


Really? I'm a little more conservative with that. I think the projections in the past estimated around 2050, but recent studies suggest more like the 2030's or something like that because of the feedback loops in ice volume that weren't being taken into account on climate models. I can't personally go any earlier than the recent data. What is it that makes you think it could be earlier?


Most best-fit curves of arctic ice volume suggest zero summer sea ice in the Arctic before 2030. The extent may not seem like it is dropping that fast, but volume is dropping very fast... faster than predicted by any of those models.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3204
Quoting Floodman:


Your agitation only makes him think he's right; if he's out to get you (or just your goat) getting excited about it only plays into his hands...


Report and ignore, always works:)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
don't know if anyone saw this but the other day this was show a full on El Nino but doesen't anymore



However,the new version CFSv2 goes to Moderate El Nino by October.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14329
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Anyone have any PROOF that SPL is plagiarizing?


This.

If you have proof of where he is getting his information from, please present it and rest the case. If not, you have no basis for claiming plagiarism.
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Very strange. This is the 3rd MCV system to move up from South TX in the past week. Can't say that I've ever seen that happen.

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Quoting Floodman:


Your agitation only makes him think he's right; if he's out to get you (or just your goat) getting excited about it only plays into his hands...


Anyone have any PROOF that SPL is plagiarizing?
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Severe warning east of Houston.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
don't know if anyone saw this but the other day this was show a full on El Nino but doesen't anymore

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Quoting Skeptic33:


Yet you rely on 30 something years of satellite pictures for Arctic ice coverage and volume...

Take a deep breath... World won't end when Arctic becomes completely ice free (high unlikely).


Wait a minute...a climate change denier using data based on sediment samples, ice cores and tree ring studies? You must have missed the memo; this data is all "suspect" and thus cannot be used...LOL

By the way, the link from your previous post doesn't work; it results in this error:

Sorry, your request can't be processed due to a system problem. Contact the Help Desk if the problem persists. [SD-008]

Have you anything else?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys this is what I think would happen this year

in terms of El Nino/La Nina I think that we will reach nurtural (0) very soon maybe or the warm side maybe around (0.2-0.5) for spring/summer then cools back down to nurtral maybe on the cool side (-0.2--0.5) for the summer/fall

in term of hurricane season I think we will get more than average maybe around 13-15 named maybe less but we will have higher impacts in the Caribbean and GOM and E coast of US ("close to home systems")un like last year


Euro shows us going into a moderate to strong El-nino by summers end. So far the Euro has been right on the quick turn around across the C & Eastern Pacific.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TomTaylor:
The tropical Atlantic (MDR and East Atlantic) and Caribbean have been heating up quite nicely lately. In early March many people were noticing how much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean had cooled to below average temperatures. However, this has changed over the past couple of weeks. Much of the tropical Atlantic is now above average in terms of Sea Surface Temperature.


Here are the SST anomalies for the past four weeks




What has changed? Pressures over the subtropical Atlantic have gone from above average to below average. In the first half of March, and actually most of winter, we saw above average pressure in these regions. This increased the pressure gradient between the subtropics and the tropics resulting in stronger trade winds. Stronger trade winds means more evaporative cooling, mixing and upwelling. However, over the last couple of weeks, this has changed. Sea level pressure anomalies for the last two weeks are now below average over the subtropical Atlantic.




Should this trend keep up, we would continue to see above normal SSTs into the hurricane season which would obviously promote above average activity. Something to keep an eye on...


true you make a good point
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Quoting TomTaylor:
The tropical Atlantic (MDR and East Atlantic) and Caribbean have been heating up quite nicely lately. In early March many people were noticing how much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean had cooled to below average temperatures. However, this has changed over the past couple of weeks. Much of the tropical Atlantic is now above average in terms of Sea Surface Temperature.


Here are the SST anomalies for the past four weeks




What has changed? Pressures over the subtropical Atlantic have gone from above average to below average. In the first half of March, and actually most of winter, we saw above average pressure in these regions. This increased the pressure gradient between the subtropics and the tropics resulting in stronger trade winds. Stronger trade winds means more evaporative cooling, mixing and upwelling. However, over the last couple of weeks, this has changed. Sea level pressure anomalies for the last two weeks are now below average over the subtropical Atlantic.




Should this trend keep up, we would continue to see above normal SSTs into the hurricane season which would obviously promote above average activity. Something to keep an eye on...


SSTs aren't the only thing we are worried about when it comes to activity. If you'll notice the continued heating along the Equatorial Pacific, you'll see that our high probability of an El Nino is gaining steam.
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Tampa Bay, FL warmest March EVER RECORDED at 74.3 degrees!


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
hey guys this is what I think would happen this year

in terms of El Nino/La Nina I think that we will reach nurtural (0) very soon maybe or the warm side maybe around (0.2-0.5) for spring/summer then cools back down to nurtral maybe on the cool side (-0.2--0.5) for the summer/fall

in term of hurricane season I think we will get more than average maybe around 13-15 named maybe less but we will have higher impacts in the Caribbean and GOM and E coast of US ("close to home systems")un like last year
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Quoting SPLbeater:


yeah i am protesting because some numbskull cant accept the fact that I can do a fine job at blogging. he also does not realize that throwing others into the trash, does NOT make himself look good.


Your agitation only makes him think he's right; if he's out to get you (or just your goat) getting excited about it only plays into his hands...
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Quoting Skeptic33:


Yet you rely on 30 something years of satellite pictures for Arctic ice coverage and volume...

Take a deep breath... World won't end when Arctic becomes completely ice free (high unlikely).
I love how the vertical (y) axis has absolutely no label or values.
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Quoting Floodman:


Methinks thou dost protest too much


yeah i am protesting because some numbskull cant accept the fact that I can do a fine job at blogging. he also does not realize that throwing others into the trash, does NOT make himself look good.
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Yet you rely on 30 something years of satellite pictures for Arctic ice coverage and volume...

Take a deep breath... World won't end when Arctic becomes completely ice free (high unlikely).
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NWS of JAX (Jacksonville, FL).

March 2012 - Warmest on Record


March 2012 will go down as the warmest March on record at the southeast Georgia climate sites of St Simons Island and Alma, while it was one of the Top 10 warmest March's on record at the northeast Florida climate sites of Jacksonville and Gainesville. A summer-like Bermuda high pressure ridge extended across the forecast area for most of the month and a general southeast flow across the region kept temperatures well above normal with highs into the 80s for most of the month. Much of the month was relatively dry except for two widespread heavy rainfall events. One occurred at the beginning of the month on the 3rd and 4th when a cold front brought widespread 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals across southeast Georgia and lesser amounts across northeast Florida, and another occurred on the 31st when widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts occurred across northeast Florida with lesser amounts across southeast Georgia. Rainfall totals ended up near normal across southeast Georgia and slightly below normal across northeast Florida. No freeze events were experienced across the region. The March 2012 climate summary table is listed below
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Apparently one cannot inquire as to where the origination of a particular blog post came from without being labeled a troll or otherwise deamed a descrace to WU. I think you, PortStLucieSunshine, are getting confused as to my purpose. If I believe that someone is passing along information obtained from someone or somewhere else and using it as their own and suggesting that they wrote it when they clearly did not, I beleive that I have the right to address that person without violating any Rules of the Road. So report me I dont care, I have done nothing wronge here.


You need help dude. i dont use much grammar in my regular comment posting here, but i send out my blogs to family and friends through email. therefore, i want it to look the best it can.
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98 Floodman: Hard to make a clear determination one way or the other based on personal observation; life spans are too short but I can say this: animals that were never seen in central Missouri are showing up in droves. I grew up here and never saw an armadillo until I went to Texas the first time. Now I can pick them up as road kill as far north as Hannibal.

Ya know what sucks? It's highly plausible that everyone posting on or reading this forum will still be alive when the "bets" on an ice-free*summertime ArcticOcean are settled by the observable facts.
Ya know what really sucks? When I first started posting here, the informed "betting" was centered on a handful or so years surrounding 2100^.

* excluding glacier-calved icebergs
^ ie farther in the future than nearly all of us reasonably expect to live, let alone hafta "settle a bet".
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Quoting SPLbeater:


I made those words from scratch! is there a reason for you suspecting me for copying?

I AM NOT PLAGIARIZING!!!!!!!


Methinks thou dost protest too much
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The tropical Atlantic (MDR and East Atlantic) and Caribbean have been heating up quite nicely lately. In early March many people were noticing how much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean had cooled to below average temperatures. However, this has changed over the past couple of weeks. Much of the tropical Atlantic is now above average in terms of Sea Surface Temperature.


Here are the SST anomalies for the past four weeks




What has changed? Pressures over the subtropical Atlantic have gone from above average to below average. In the first half of March, and actually most of winter, we saw above average pressure in these regions. This increased the pressure gradient between the subtropics and the tropics resulting in stronger trade winds. Stronger trade winds means more evaporative cooling, mixing and upwelling. However, over the last couple of weeks, this has changed. Sea level pressure anomalies for the last two weeks are now below average over the subtropical Atlantic.




Should this trend keep up, we would continue to see above normal SSTs into the hurricane season which would obviously promote above average activity. Something to keep an eye on...
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


I am sorry let me clarify. I realize that "the SPLbeater" is the author of the blog, however are you the author of those words and sentence structure. Did you write that from scratch or did you copy and paste that from somewhere else?


I made those words from scratch! is there a reason for you suspecting me for copying?
Quoting caneswatch:


Even I found it to be plagiarized. SPL, there's no way that's your writing. We all know the way you type. Plagiarism is a very, very serious offense and it could result in prison.


I AM NOT PLAGIARIZING!!!!!!!
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Good afternoon... We need to get to the next page. Something's messed this one up
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting Skeptic33:


It will start in a few years... Don't tell Mann. He will try to hide it like he did with Little Ice age and let's not forget about Medieval Warming period...

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S1364682612000417


Hard to make a clear determination one way or the other based on personal observation; life spans are too short but I can say this: animals that were never seen in central Missouri are showing up in droves. I grew up here and never saw an armadillo until I went to Texas the first time. Now I can pick them up as road kill as far north as Hannibal.

I await your cooling period with much anticipation; I have always enjoyed a cooler climate. Is there some timeframe you're enamored of, or is this a "just around the bend" sort of thing? I certainly understand the uncertainty of all things climatic; I mean the Climate Change adherents have all said that springs will get earlier and earlier, warm climate animals will be seen firther north and weather events more chaotic and harder to predict...oh wait, that has been happening...

To what evidence do you attribute your belief in an impending cooling of the climate?
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I think post #82 video is streaching the blog.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14329
New Comparison of Ocean Temperatures Reveals Rise Over the Last Century
ScienceDaily (Apr. 1, 2012) — A new study contrasting ocean temperature readings of the 1870s with temperatures of the modern seas reveals an upward trend of global ocean warming spanning at least 100 years.
Read more: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/1204 01135345.htm
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90 Tropicsweatherpr: What does everyone think on what numbers Phil Klotzbach / Dr William Gray will release next Wednesday? I am going with 11/6/2.

I'd bet that they are going to be very conservative with their numbers,
and that the end-of-the-season total will be noticeably higher.
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Quoting Skeptic33:


It will start in a few years... Don't tell Mann. He will try to hide it like he did with Little Ice age and let's not forget about Medieval Warming period...

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S1364682612000417
You know, it would be so much easier to believe you guys when you promise us that cooling "will start in a few years" if you hadn't been telling us that every year for the past thirty. Can you narrow it down? That is, would you be so kind as to define what exactly you mean by "few years"? TIA...
Quoting NativeSun:
Since we ae entering the first years of a cold PDO and the AMO will begain cooling soon with a very good chance of low solar minimum cycles starting I will make a wild guess that the oceans will cool some what and the ice will return.
It could happen--if only those pesky greenhouse gases would just stop warming us up. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
93. Skyepony (Mod)
The smoke from that fire to the NNW of me is getting caught up in the developing seabreeze making it look like precipitation when at this point it's just smoke. At one point it moved between me & the sun & turned everything orange.
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


I am sorry let me clarify. I realize that "the SPLbeater" is the author of the blog, however are you the author of those words and sentence structure. Did you write that from scratch or did you copy and paste that from somewhere else?


Even I found it to be plagiarized. SPL, there's no way that's your writing. We all know the way you type. Plagiarism is a very, very serious offense and it could result in prison.
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Quoting NativeSun:
Since we ae entering the first years of a cold PDO and the AMO will begain cooling soon with a very good chance of low solar minimum cycles starting I will make a wild guess that the oceans will cool some what and the ice will return.


It will start in a few years... Don't tell Mann. He will try to hide it like he did with Little Ice age and let's not forget about Medieval Warming period...

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S1364682612000417
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What does everyone think on what numbers Phil Klotzbach / Dr William Gray will release next Wednesday? I am going with 11/6/2.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14329
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Apparently one cannot inquire as to where the origination of a particular blog post came from without being labeled a troll or otherwise deamed a descrace to WU. I think you, PortStLucieSunshine, are getting confused as to my purpose. If I believe that someone is passing along information obtained from someone or somewhere else and using it as their own and suggesting that they wrote it when they clearly did not, I beleive that I have the right to address that person without violating any Rules of the Road. So report me I dont care, I have done nothing wronge here.
The person in question has me blocked from his blog, so I can't see the blog post in question. However, given his, er, distinct writing style as amply demonstrated in this forum, it should be easy to discern whether he copied verbatim from another source. If he did so, he should of course add attribution to his blog, for his failure to do so will--correctly--lead to charges of plagiarism.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13555
Apparently one cannot inquire as to where the origination of a particular blog post came from without being labeled a troll or otherwise deamed a descrace to WU. I think you, PortStLucieSunshine, are getting confused as to my purpose. If I believe that someone is passing along information obtained from someone or somewhere else and using it as their own and suggesting that they wrote it when they clearly did not, I beleive that I have the right to address that person without violating any Rules of the Road. So report me I dont care, I have done nothing wronge here.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
134 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012

...WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT...

PAZ017>019-024-025-045-046-049>053-058-030145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FZ.W.0003.120403T0600Z-120403T1200Z/
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...
LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SH AMOKIN...
BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...POTTSVILLE
134 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30.

* TIMING...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL OR
GARDENING INTERESTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39252
Thanks Pat, may put a little damper on pre-game festivities then, glad it should be clearing out by game time.
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Sever Tstorm Warnings on some of these cells

Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
Quoting CycloneUK:


WHERE IS YOU AGW NOW!?!?

/confirmation bias.


I had posted this on another blog. I believe that it is valid to use here as well:

"Looks like we are going to be skating on a lot of thin ice this summer, boys. That is if the winds and currents don't float it all out first. Then what? ... Water skiing, anyone?"
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Of note is that one of the authors of the GIT study linking sea-ice loss to strange weather, JudithCurry, is well known as a favorite of the ClimateChange denialists... though whether through her own words, or the ambiguity contained within them, or "sound bite" misquotation of what she meant is open to debate.
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Sports fans across the nation this year have carefully calibrated their picks for tonight's NCAA basketball championship. They've filled in their brackets and eagerly await tonight's finale.

The 2007-2008 season would be no different, except that year the final four SEC tournament was interrupted by a weather event in downtown Atlanta that had never happened before in the history of the grand old city.

In case you've forgotten, pay close attention to what you're about to see and hear.



Rare as it was, something even rarer preceded it. A curious weather forecast was made, beginning on opening day of the NCAA 2007-2008 basketball season, which was Nov. 5, 2007.

In this pictorial forecast, the writer oddly begins by picking a moment in Atlanta's history that is perhaps the worst in the city's memory.

Here, P. 24 on Nov. 5, 2007 is what he publishes.

... We rode out of Atlanta by the Decatur road, filled by the marching troops and wagons of the Fourteenth Corps; and reaching the hill, just outside of the old rebel works, we naturally paused to look back upon the scenes of our past battles. We stood upon the very ground whereon was fought the bloody battle of July 22d, and could see the copse of wood where McPherson fell. Behind us lay Atlanta, smouldering and in ruins, the black smoke rising high in air, and hanging like a pall over the ruined city.

%u2013 William T. Sherman, Memoirs of General William Tecumseh Sherman, Chapter 21


What is important to note, besides the terrible picture the general is painting, is the vantage point Sherman is observing this scene from, because the weather forecaster who cited this verse from General Sherman's book, will use the exact same vantage point on Nov. 20, 2007 to paint an oddly similar picture, of a peril about to befall the city on a unique day, where four red balls are about to be tossed into the air. The only difference is, this destruction won't be man-made.

So having carefully set the scene, by previously referencing General Sherman's vantage point as a backdrop, he then publishes his graphic weather forecast P. 47, which when added to that video clip you saw above ... gives you the what(inverted triangle TVS,) the where(the exact building it will hit,) but most importantly even when(final four basketball tournament) this historic weather event will take place.



Adding to the mystery, this weather forecaster didn't follow basketball at the time. So he would have had no idea the final four SEC tournament would be held in downtown Atlanta, when that inverted triangle(TVS) struck the Georgia Dome, the Centennial Tower, and a certain TV Stations's headquarters, better known as CNN.



Here is the opposite side of the vantage point used by both General Sherman, and the forecaster, on the day of the disaster.



So as we reflect on the four year anniversary of what happened in Atlanta on this important day in basketball, let U.S. not forget that someone is watching the game we are playing with the most important ball of all, and She never likes losing a season.
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Quoting Minnemike:
i don't think so.. maybe just a hidden sarcasm flag :P


They should really make those things bigger, you know?
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Quoting SPLbeater:


yes, i am the only SPLbeater here lol


I am sorry let me clarify. I realize that "the SPLbeater" is the author of the blog, however are you the author of those words and sentence structure. Did you write that from scratch or did you copy and paste that from somewhere else?
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Watch goes till 8pm CDT, and that's Game time I believe.
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


So did you write that blog entry?


yes, i am the only SPLbeater here lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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