Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

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Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.


Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."


Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.

Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.

"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.


Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NativeSun:
entrelac, I was the one who said the sun was going to solar min. I was trying to say the solar max was going to be very weak and act like a solar min.

Any particular reason for saying that?

Quoting NativeSun:
CO2 is a trace gas and is not the main driver in Global Warming.

Again, any particular reason for saying that?
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Quoting Doppler22:
Everybody is mainly talking about this hurricane season being a Homegrown season but when do you think the season will start??? As in when do you think the first storm will form and where? I think we could start in May with a depression in the GOM

All depends when conditions become favorable enough for tropical cyclones to form. Late May is my bet, probably in the GoM.
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Here, let me clarify in one post instead of several mini ones.

I, nor the local mets scattered across the USA, are predicting a tornado season like last year. I do not believe we will see one of those for a while. What am I stating however is that this summertime pattern should not last forever, and it will become less zonal eventually. We will get major outbreaks at one point, it is inevitable. If we were stuck in this pattern all spring/summer, we wouldn't get the 1000+ we get every year, which means that it will have to break down eventually. The moisture is there, the forcing is there, and all the other thermodynamics have there. We've just yet to see a pronounced trough to take advantage of everything, with the exception of March 2.
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All of these cells around Jackson are severe wx warned.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Floodman, the Earth has been cooling the last few years, maybe not the North American continent but the magority of the globe is and when the effects of the cold PDO and AMO become more apparent the Earth will cool even more.

The "last few years" doesn't provide enough information to say anything about climate. Anyone who claims it does say something about climate is trying to sell you something.

And good luck on that PDO-thang!
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Quoting cyclonekid:
When does CSU issue their predictions? I know it's sometime this month.


Wednesday.
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Quoting cyclonekid:


Strong wording ;)

I kind of agree. I say TD or TS is possible, but with possible wind shear, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first storm form in July. That's going back to what you said with the environment.


I can agree... I wouldn't be suprised if there was a TS or TD in May but if there is too much wind shear i doubt it... By the way things are going The whole gulf should be warm enough to support development then tho
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Quoting presslord:
In Fig.1....please notice...it's the same astronomical background.....which proves beyond any doubt that Climate Change is a vast Left Wing conspiracy...
trouble maker
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When does CSU issue their predictions? I know it's sometime this month.
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I supposed the list of heat waves here is caused by GW as well?
Link

History

[edit]20th century
During a period of 160 such days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, the Western Australian town of Marble Bar set a world record for the most consecutive days above 100 F (37.8 C).[25]
The 1936 North American heat wave during the Dust Bowl, followed one of the coldest winters on record%u2014the 1936 North American cold wave. Massive heat waves across North America were persistent in the 1930s, many mid-Atlantic/Ohio valley states recorded their highest temperatures during July 1934. The longest continuous string of 100 F (38 C) or higher temperatures was reached for 101 days in Yuma, Arizona during 1937 and the highest temperatures ever reached in Canada were recorded in two locations in Saskatchewan in July 1937.
A prolonged severe drought and heat wave occurred in the early 1950s throughout the central and southern United States. In some areas it was drier than during the Dust Bowl and the heat wave in most areas was within the top five on record. The heat was particularly severe in 1954 with 22 days of temperatures exceeding 100 F (38 C) covering significant parts of eleven states. On July 14, the thermometer reached 117 F (47 C) at East St. Louis, Illinois, which remains the record highest temperature for that state.[26][27][28]
The heat waves of 1972 in New York and Northeastern United States were significant. Almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days, aggravated by high humidity levels.
The 1976 United Kingdom heat wave was one of the hottest in living memory and was marked by constant blues skies from May until September when dramatic thunderstorms signalled the heat wave's end.
An estimated 10,000 people perished in the 1980 United States heat wave and drought, which impacted the central and eastern United States. Temperatures were highest in the southern plains. From June through September, temperatures remained above 90 F (32 C) all but two days in Kansas City, Missouri. The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced 42 consecutive days with high temperatures above 100 F (38 C), with temperatures reaching 117 F (47 C) at Wichita Falls, Texas on June 28. Economic losses were $20 billion (1980 dollars).[29]
During another heat wave in the Summer of 1983 temperatures over 100 F (38 C) were common across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska and certain parts of Kentucky; the summer of 1983 remains one of the hottest summers ever recorded in many of the states affected. The hundred-degree readings were accompanied by very dry conditions associated with drought affecting the Corn Belt States and Upper Midwest. The heat also affected the Southeastern U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic states as well that same summer. New York Times represented articles about the heat waves of 1983 affecting the central United States.

During 1988 intense heat spells in combination with the drought of 1988 caused deadly results across the United States. Some 5,000 to 10,000 people perished because of constant heat across the United States although-according to many estimates-total death reports run as high as next to 17,000 deaths.
The 1995 Chicago heat wave produced record high dew point levels and heat indices in the Chicago area and Wisconsin. The lack of emergency cooling facilities and inadequate response from civic authorities to the senior population, particularly in lower income neighborhoods in Chicago and other Midwest cities, lead to many deaths.
The summer of 1999 saw a devastating heat wave and drought in the eastern United States. Rainfall shortages resulted in worst drought on record for Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. The state of West Viriginia was declared a disaster area. 3,810,000 acres (15,400 km2) were consumed by fire as of mid-Aug. Record heat throughout the country resulted in 502 deaths nationwide.
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Quoting Bergeron:


Hard to say...albeit shear in the Gulf is below climatology, it needs to weaken somewhat more.


Well it's April, wind shear is going to be high across the Atlantic as a whole still. It will lower significant by May/June...at least across the Gulf of Mexico.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Our summertime pattern will have to break down for there to be any significant severe weather outbreaks. We will have to return to a more normal pattern.


Agreed. I would like to know who these mets are because it's obvious we looking at pattern that resembles May or June which this is a pattern that was not present last year (hence the more active year due to progressive troughs coming across the US last year). Biggest problem lately is everything has been getting cut off that's why all of the hail and wind reports. I mean 3 MCS in a week from TX to MS.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Doppler22:
Everybody is mainly talking about this hurricane season being a Homegrown season but when do you think the season will start??? As in when do you think the first storm will form and where? I think we could start in May with a depression in the GOM


Hard to say...albeit shear in the Gulf is below climatology, it needs to weaken somewhat more.

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Quoting Skeptic33:


It's the sun that causes climate CHANGES. CO2 plays a very minor role.

Also I question the validity of CO2...


Really? Why is the Sun warming the Earth more at night than during the day when it's actually visable? LOL

And I can see why you're suspicious of CO2. You apparently got hold of a real bum graphic.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

May with a tropical storm/hurricane in the GOM. Although, it depends on the environment and steering patterns at the time.


Strong wording ;)

I kind of agree. I say TD or TS is possible, but with possible wind shear, I wouldn't be surprised to see our first storm form in July. That's going back to what you said with the environment.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well actually, I don't even need to ask that. All seasons usually feature a low amount of activity until mid April, and then the tornado activity and severity really ramps up.


Our summertime pattern will have to break down for there to be any significant severe weather outbreaks. We will have to return to a more normal pattern.
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Quoting Doppler22:
Everybody is mainly talking about this hurricane season being a Homegrown season but when do you think the season will start??? As in when do you think the first storm will form and where? I think we could start in May with a depression in the GOM

May with a tropical storm/hurricane in the GOM. Although, it depends on the environment and steering patterns at the time.
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Bob, just like the rest of the Global Warming crowd. When we know what he real cause of the earth warming is, then we can spend the trillions of dollars to fix it. O wait we don't have the trillions to fix it unless you want to cause a global depression and possible world war trying to fix it.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Zonal Flow with a trough access setting up over the eastern 1/3 of the US. Basically nothing major on all of the models thru mid April other than what we've seen for the last few weeks.


That pattern is not going to last forever...though the current pattern is also just more evidence for the mets that April won't be as severe as May may be.
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Everybody is mainly talking about this hurricane season being a Homegrown season but when do you think the season will start??? As in when do you think the first storm will form and where? I think we could start in May with a depression in the GOM
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How so?

Well actually, I don't even need to ask that. All seasons usually feature a low amount of activity until mid April, and then the tornado activity and severity really ramps up.
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In Fig.1....please notice...it's the same astronomical background.....which proves beyond any doubt that Climate Change is a vast Left Wing conspiracy...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How so?


Zonal Flow with a trough access setting up over the eastern 1/3 of the US. Basically nothing major on all of the models thru mid April other than what we've seen for the last few weeks.



Maybe something on the Euro at day 10 but look at the extreme cold across the eastern seaboard which could cause a lot of the storms to be elevated as this system emerges if the play out which I doubt.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I don't think he is. It's a good blog, with good information. Kudo's SPL.


Thanks. I put time and effort into my blogs, and after 39 posts not sure why somebody has all the sudden began to shout fiction.
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Quoting NativeSun:
entrelac, I was the one who said the sun was going to solr min. I ment the solar max was going to be very weak and act like a solar min. CO2 a trace gas and is not the main driver in Global Warming.


A wisp of smoke arises from the sole of his shoe as he spins in place....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
entrelac, I was the one who said the sun was going to solar min. I was trying to say the solar max was going to be very weak and act like a solar min. CO2 is a trace gas and is not the main driver in Global Warming.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I have to respectfully disagree with them as this is a totally different pattern than last year. Also whats their reasoning for these mets saying this? I see lots of rain for the SE US but nothing with a negative tilt thru mid April but that can change though so we will see.


How so?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt it. We've just not had everything come to together for a major tornado outbreak lately (not since March 2), but that is expected considering we are just now entering April. Several good mets I know also said that April wouldn't be as bad as a month as March and May, as I have mentioned here before.


Are they going off models that have just been terrible this past summer and winter? I hope not! I can only imagine when tropical formations start anew how the models are going to interpret these storms. Last year was awful in track and intensity
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The SPC is really firing off these watches...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt it. We've just not had everything come to together for a major tornado outbreak lately (not since March 2), but that is expected considering we are just now entering April. Several good mets I know also said that April wouldn't be as bad as a month as March and May, as I have mentioned here before.


I have to respectfully disagree with them as this is a totally different pattern than last year. Also whats their reasoning for these mets saying this? I see lots of rain for the SE US with some wind & hail but nothing "major" with a negative tilt thru mid April but that can change though so we will see.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 127...WW
128...WW 129...

DISCUSSION...AN ARCING WEST-TO-EAST LINE OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES MOVING NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SRN AR
ATTM...AND WILL AFFECT SERN OK AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SRN AND
CENTRAL AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THE
ONGOING/ORGANIZED CONVECTION...NWD SHIFT OF THE AREAL THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 18035.


...GOSS
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 127...WW 128...

DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG STATIONARY FRONT OVER SWRN KS INTO THE NRN TX PNHDL...AS
WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE INTO W-CNTRL TX. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME
STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-3500
J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AREA
VAD/PROFILER DATA AND MODEL FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ IS
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
BY 03/00-03Z...BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH
STORMS THAT REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. THUS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH LATER THIS
EVENING.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20025.


...MEAD
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt it. We've just not had everything come to together for a major tornado outbreak lately (not since March 2), but that is expected considering we are just now entering April. Several good mets I know also said that April wouldn't be as bad as a month as March and May, as I have mentioned here before.


Yeah Tropical...I hear ya there ...the right stuff just is not there....have you noticed that storms have been elevated lately?
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Quoting Skeptic33:


It's the sun that causes climate CHANGES. CO2 plays a very minor role.

Also I question the validity of CO2...

Alright, I'll play. Earlier you said we were going into a solar minimum and that would cool the planet allowing the Artic ice to return. Now you're posting graphics which say the opposite since we're approaching solar maximum; according to your graphics that means a hot Earth.

So which is it or is it whatever fits the climate change denialist conspiracy theory du jour? Perhaps the dragons are waking from their millennia of slumber and their fiery breath is what's causing the warm up? The Yellowstone volcano's magma chamber is filling and warming the atmosphere? Wait, I know...

Aliens.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's their job and they do it good and I'm sure they know more than you or I. I agree with them as it looks more like a wind & hail event which has been the case for a month now and will likely we the case for the next couple of weeks atleast. This is beginning to look like the severe wx season of 2009 (April thru June). Hey we could use a break from earlier this year and last year.

I doubt it. We've just not had everything come to together for a major tornado outbreak lately (not since March 2), but that is expected considering we are just now entering April. Several good mets I know also said that April wouldn't be as bad as a month as March and May, as I have mentioned here before.
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Big hail will be the main threat this evening...
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Floodman, the Earth has been cooling the last few years, maybe not the North American continent but the magority of the globe is and when the effects of the cold PDO and AMO become more apparent the Earth will cool even more. My mistake on the solar minimum what I ment to say was the Sloar Max will be be very weak and act like a solar minimum. It takes a lot more energy to cool the tropics than to heat the colder climates. Think about this, since the tropical ocean temps are what regulate the global temps and when they cool which they are the Earth should cool to. I believe in renewable energy and trying to make the planet as green as possible, I just don't like the fact the goverment is trying to force golbal warming on us as a man made crisis. I believe the warming is natural with a little help from man but CO2 is a trace gas and is not the main contributor to Global Warming. In fact I wish CO2 was the main factor in Global Warming it would be much easier to fix.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I do not understand the Storm Prediction Center sometimes...they just issued a Mesoscale Discussion stating they were going to issue a Tornado Watch, and then they turn around and issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.


That's their job and they do it good and I'm sure they know more than you or I. I agree with them as it looks more like a wind & hail event which has been the case for a month now and will likely we the case for the next couple of weeks atleast. This is beginning to look like the severe wx season of 2009 (April thru June). Hey we could use a break from earlier this year and last year.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey. About to head to work. Hope you are doing well.


Hope you are too.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Well that won't be a problem since La Nina is gone.

True, so that would favor stronger Gulf storms
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I do not understand the Storm Prediction Center sometimes...they just issued a Mesoscale Discussion stating they were going to issue a Tornado Watch, and then they turn around and issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

They will consider upgrading it.

DISCUSSION...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG STATIONARY FRONT OVER SWRN KS INTO THE NRN TX PNHDL...AS
WELL AS ALONG DRYLINE INTO W-CNTRL TX. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME
STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-3500
J/KG WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AREA
VAD/PROFILER DATA AND MODEL FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR /BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ IS
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
BY 03/00-03Z...BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITH
STORMS THAT REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. THUS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH LATER THIS
EVENING.
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Quoting Bergeron:


Hey Kori!


Hey. About to head to work. Hope you are doing well.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
West Hemisphere:



Pacific:



Global:




Absolutely incredible the GOM and gulf streams temps these days. I usually don't think about swimming in the lakes until like may. It's early April and I've done it twice now.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Only if there isn't a major Texas drought though... If Texas is like it was last year anything that forms in or near the Gulf will just pull a Don

Well that won't be a problem since La Nina is gone.
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I do not understand the Storm Prediction Center sometimes...they just issued a Mesoscale Discussion stating they were going to issue a Tornado Watch, and then they turn around and issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
If this year will be anything like 2002, the western and northern Gulf of Mexico coasts will see a lot of action. Six tropical cyclones affected or entered the Gulf of Mexico that year (Bertha, Edouard, Fay, Hanna, Isidore, and Lili). Fortunately they were mostly weak, save Lili, which by comparison to recent storms wasn't all that strong either.


Hey Kori!
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Quoting WDEmobmet:
Apparently one cannot inquire as to where the origination of a particular blog post came from without being labeled a troll or otherwise deamed a descrace to WU. I think you, PortStLucieSunshine, are getting confused as to my purpose. If I believe that someone is passing along information obtained from someone or somewhere else and using it as their own and suggesting that they wrote it when they clearly did not, I beleive that I have the right to address that person without violating any Rules of the Road. So report me I dont care, I have done nothing wronge here.


You could select/copy a portion of the text in question and google to see if it occurs anywhere else on the web.

If your search gives you a hit then check the dates.

I've identified 'first sources' that way....
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Only if there isn't a major Texas drought though... If Texas is like it was last year anything that forms in or near the Gulf will just pull a Don


But La Nina has died.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.