Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:40 PM GMT on April 02, 2012

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Earth has seen some highly unusual weather patterns over the past three years, and three new studies published this year point to Arctic sea loss as a potential important driver of some of these strange weather patterns. The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 reached its lowest extent on record, approximately 40% lower than when satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice loss in 2011 was virtually tied with the ice loss in 2007, despite weather conditions that were not as unusual in the Arctic. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.


Figure 2. The extent of Arctic sea ice loss in the summer July - August - September period in 2007 was about 1.4 million square miles (3.6 million square kilometers) greater than in 1980, according to the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. For comparison, the lost ice coverage (orange colors) was equal to an area about 44% of the size of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe.

Summertime Arctic sea ice loss: 40% since 1980
The Arctic has seen a stunning amount of sea ice loss in recent years, due to melting and unfavorable winds that have pushed large amounts of ice out of the region. Forty percent of the sea ice was missing in September 2007, compared to September of 1980. This is an area equivalent to about 44% of the contiguous U.S., or 71% of the non-Russian portion of Europe. Such a large area of open water is bound to cause significant impacts on weather patterns, due to the huge amount of heat and moisture that escapes from the exposed ocean into the atmosphere over a multi-month period following the summer melt. The Georgia Tech study found that Arctic sea ice loss had caused a 20 - 60% weakening of the west-to-east belt of winds circling the pole in recent years, producing broader meanders in the jet stream that allowed it to get "stuck" in place 20 - 60% more often. When the jet stream gets stuck in place for a long period of time, we say a "blocking pattern" has set up. Since the jet stream marks the boundary between cold, Arctic air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south, areas on both sides of the jet are subjected to extended periods of unusually warm or cold weather during a blocking episode. Such a blocking pattern began on January 26, 2012 and lasted until February 11, bringing and exceptionally cold and snowy conditions to much of Europe, which lay on the cold side of an elongated loop of the jet stream that got stuck in place. Conversely, most of North America and northern Siberia saw unusually warm temperatures during this period, since they were on the warm side of the jet stream. Lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, added, "We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States." The paper concludes: "if Arctic sea ice continues as anticipated by climate modeling results, we speculate that episodes of the aforementioned circulation change will become more frequent, along with more persistent snowstorms over northern continents during winter."


Figure 3. Waiting for the warm-up after a rare snowfall in Italy during the February, 2012 European cold blast. Image credit: wunderphotographer cathykiro.

Two other studies link Arctic sea ice loss to atmospheric circulation changes
"The question is not whether sea ice loss is affecting the large-scale atmospheric circulation...it's how can it not?" That was the take-home message from Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, in her talk "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-latitudes, presented at December's American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. Dr. Francis presented new research that has just been published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, which shows that Arctic sea ice loss may significantly affect the upper-level atmospheric circulation, slowing its winds and increasing its tendency to make contorted high-amplitude loops. High-amplitude loops in the upper level wind pattern (and associated jet stream) increases the probability of persistent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, potentially leading to extreme weather due to longer-duration cold spells, snow events, heat waves, flooding events, and drought conditions. Dr. Francis describes her work in a March 5, 2012 post on the Yale environment360 web site.

"Even if the current weather situation may seem to speak against it, the probability of cold winters with much snow in Central Europe rises when the Arctic is covered by less sea ice in summer." That was the opening sentence of a January 26, 2012 press release by a group of European scientists, led by Ralf Jaiser of the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany. The words proved prescient, because that day marked the beginning of a brutal two-week cold air outbreak over Central and Eastern Europe that killed 823 people and did over $660 million in damage, according to preliminary estimates by insurance broker Aon Benfield. Dr. Jaiser's team, using modeling studies, showed that Arctic sea ice loss weakens upper-level winds over the Arctic in winter, allowing an increased chance of cold air surges over Europe.


Figure 4. Digging out in Maryland after "Snowmageddon" on February 4, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer chills.

Why was the winter of 2011 - 2012 so warm in the U.S.?
The winter of 2011 - 2012 in North America was unusually warm--the fourth warmest on record. The cold air spilling out of the Arctic during the winter was confined to Europe, unlike that previous two winters, which were unusually cold and snowy in the Eastern U.S. Obviously, loss of Arctic sea ice is not having the same impact each winter; such factors as El Niño/La Niña, the phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and the amount of snow cover in Siberia also have strong influences on the winter weather pattern that sets up. Cold air is less likely to spill out of the Arctic during a solar maximum, as we are now headed towards, so this factor may tend to reduce the odds of getting big cold blasts in the U.S. during the coming two winters. However, cold air may be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see more winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt and affect global atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

References
Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012.

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Liu et al. (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


True, predicting PDO cycles isn't exactly straightforward. However it is clear that we have been in a cold PDO for a while now.


Since 2008
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Global warming...pfft

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I do not believe he stated anything similar to that in his post. Sure, the significant reduction of sea ice that has taken place over the past decades or however long is troublesome. However, this is not going to affect your day-to-day activities, at least not at this time. Paying for gas, bills, and trying to feed a family is definitely more important at this point in time.


We're starting to see papers published that attribute extreme weather events to the loss of Arctic ice.

You have only to go to the top of this page to read -


The record loss of sea ice the Arctic in recent years may be increasing winter cold surges and snowfall in Europe and North America, says a study by a research team led by Georgia Institute of Technology scientists Jiping Liu and Judith Curry. The paper, titled "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech, in a press release. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."


Just think about what wild weather swings will do to the cost of feeding your family.

How much of the Midwest fruit crop got wiped out by Summer in March followed by a quick return to freezing weather?

How much will this summer's grain crop be hurt by a lack of ground water resulting from low snow cover this year?

How about the price of beef after a lot of the Texas beef industry was crushed last year?

Will it get too hot in the Southeast for some crops to thrive this year?

Looks to me as if your food budget isn't already getting trashed by extreme weather....

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting Chucktown:


It may or may not, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. If there is a drastic consequence to this, it won't occur overnight. Future generations may have to deal with it, but I believe mankind is a durable species and will find a way to survive.

That's the problem with most of today's leaders and adults. Just dump everything on the next generation... I'm tired of it- Because me and all the other teenagers and young adults of the world as well as generations after us are going to be left to pay back the countries trillions in debt, and we're going to be left to deal with the effects of climate change and whatever other problems today's "leaders" can come up with. As I've said I do believe we can reverse or at least stop climate change, but future generations won't have an easy time of it while trying to deal with all the other problems our wonderful friends in Washington are giving us.

(End rant)
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Quoting islander101010:
no one knows for sure whats going to happen


True, predicting PDO cycles isn't exactly straightforward. However it is clear that we have been in a cold PDO for a while now.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1648
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Daphne's left side isn't exactly in a favorable environment for strengthening... The right side looks good though


Yeah....there is quite a bit of dry air to it's (Daphne's) left
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Quoting Bergeron:
list removed for brevity


You are interpreting the science incorrectly and creating a false argument. Global warming doesn't cause weather events. It influences them. When climate changes it affects the probabilities of these events and how extreme they are.

That's why attribution studies are difficult to do and why attributing any specific weather event to warming usually can't be done with any reliability without many years of data being available. Climate is about trends, not about specific weather events.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1648
Quoting Patrap:
Getting to Know the Goldilocks Planet

NASA's Kepler spacecraft is discovering a veritable avalanche of alien worlds. As the numbers mount, it seems to be just a matter of time before Kepler finds what astronomers are really looking for: an Earth-like planet orbiting its star in the "Goldilocks zone".

There are over 300 billion stars in our galaxy and most of these would likely have one or more stars orbiting them and with a universe containing billions of galaxies in the universe....the possibility of earth being the only planet that can support life is very low
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Quoting Patrap:
ty for the pic pat, rain is getting closer
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Quoting Bergeron:


I supposed the list of heat waves here is caused by GW as well?
Link

History
[edit].



There has always been variation in the temperature/rainfall/etc. That's what we call weather.

If you look into the number of new record highs and the increasing number of extreme weather events you will be able to see that something is causing the climate to change.

We're seeing that sort of variation played out at a higher rate and taking us to new levels.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting BobWallace:


You could select/copy a portion of the text in question and google to see if it occurs anywhere else on the web.

If your search gives you a hit then check the dates.

I've identified 'first sources' that way....


Yea I know... I could care less honestly I was going to give the kid a compliment if it was his own work that's all. He thinks that I cant see his blog though by putting me on ignore. Just an FYI for everyone, and I will be done for this and apologize for wasting space, but just because you block somebody doesn't mean they cant see your blog. All one has to do is log off and check it..
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Quoting NativeSun:
Bob, just like the rest of the Global Warming crowd. When we know what he real cause of the earth warming is, then we can spend the trillions of dollars to fix it. O wait we don't have the trillions to fix it unless you want to cause a global depression and possible world war trying to fix it.


Exactly how many logical fallacies can one blogger commit in a day? Let's find out.
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Quoting NativeSun:
entrelac, I was the one who said the sun was going to solar min. I was trying to say the solar max was going to be very weak and act like a solar min. CO2 is a trace gas and is not the main driver in Global Warming.


I'd really like to see your research to back up that claim, because pretty much every climate scientist on the planet is in strong disagreement with you.

By your reasoning, botulinum toxin can't be the cause of death because only 100 ng/kg body mass (very tiny trace amount) was found in a victim*.

*The LD50 dose of the toxin is around 40ng/kg.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1648
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The warming isn't natural. Every piece of peer reviewed research indicates otherwise.

The planet doesn't warm and cool just because it wants to. Something causes temperatures to change. There is no natural explanations at this time for the rapid temperature increase we've observed over the past century. Since solar output has not increased appreciably, that implies that something on the planet has changed. And indeed it has.

The planet obeys the laws of thermodynamics. If the planet warms up it is either due to the Earth receiving more energy than it is radiating or it is radiating less energy than it is receiving. We know from detailed solar records it is not the former, so it must be the latter. And what has changed over the past century that would cause the Earth to radiate less energy than it is receiving?

Just because you do not understand the science behind something doesn't mean you should base your opinions about it based on gut feeling.

Agreed
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Daphne's left side isn't exactly in a favorable environment for strengthening... The right side looks good though

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Getting to Know the Goldilocks Planet

NASA's Kepler spacecraft is discovering a veritable avalanche of alien worlds. As the numbers mount, it seems to be just a matter of time before Kepler finds what astronomers are really looking for: an Earth-like planet orbiting its star in the "Goldilocks zone".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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April 1, 2011

April 1, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I do not believe he stated anything similar to that in his post. Sure, the significant reduction of sea ice that has taken place over the past decades or however long is troublesome. However, this is not going to affect your day-to-day activities, at least not at this time. Paying for gas, bills, and trying to feed a family is definitely more important at this point in time.

It is already affecting your day-to-day activities. And it's only going to get worse.

Also, people frequently have trouble prioritizing correctly. A good part of the economy depends on that. ;)
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Quoting Birthmark:

So you think that the Arctic Ice Cap's loss won't have a direct effect on you?

Watch and learn!


It may or may not, but I'm not going to lose sleep over it. If there is a drastic consequence to this, it won't occur overnight. Future generations may have to deal with it, but I believe mankind is a durable species and will find a way to survive.
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Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Floodman, the Earth has been cooling the last few years, maybe not the North American continent but the magority of the globe is and when the effects of the cold PDO and AMO become more apparent the Earth will cool even more. My mistake on the solar minimum what I ment to say was the Sloar Max will be be very weak and act like a solar minimum. It takes a lot more energy to cool the tropics than to heat the colder climates. Think about this, since the tropical ocean temps are what regulate the global temps and when they cool which they are the Earth should cool to. I believe in renewable energy and trying to make the planet as green as possible, I just don't like the fact the goverment is trying to force golbal warming on us as a man made crisis. I believe the warming is natural with a little help from man but CO2 is a trace gas and is not the main contributor to Global Warming. In fact I wish CO2 was the main factor in Global Warming it would be much easier to fix.


The warming isn't natural. Every piece of peer reviewed research indicates otherwise.

The planet doesn't warm and cool just because it wants to. Something causes temperatures to change. There is no natural explanations at this time for the rapid temperature increase we've observed over the past century. Since solar output has not increased appreciably, that implies that something on the planet has changed. And indeed it has.

The planet obeys the laws of thermodynamics. If the planet warms up it is either due to the Earth receiving more energy than it is radiating or it is radiating less energy than it is receiving. We know from detailed solar records it is not the former, so it must be the latter. And what has changed over the past century that would cause the Earth to radiate less energy than it is receiving?

Just because you do not understand the science behind something doesn't mean you should base your opinions about it based on gut feeling.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1648
who cares
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
Quoting Birthmark:

So you think that the Arctic Ice Cap's loss won't have a direct effect on you?

Watch and learn!

I do not believe he stated anything similar to that in his post. Sure, the significant reduction of sea ice that has taken place over the past decades or however long is troublesome. However, this is not going to affect your day-to-day activities, at least not at this time. Paying for gas, bills, and trying to feed a family is definitely more important at this point in time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope we're fortunate enough to get a good start to the hurricane season, like Hurricane Alex. I don't like it when the season starts with a weak, disorganized tropical storm that causes massive flooding somewhere.


Alex was a very nice system, it was amazing how quickly it strengthed considering that that it formed in June
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Quoting Chucktown:


Who cares? Do you think people that are struggling to put food on their table and pay their mortgage while paying $4.50 for a gallon of gas care about this. Hey, I'm all for conservation and saving Mother Earth, but it just not at the top of most peoples agenda.

So you think that the Arctic Ice Cap's loss won't have a direct effect on you?

Watch and learn!
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175 Skeptic33 It's the sun that causes climate CHANGES. CO2 plays a very minor role.
Also I question the validity of CO2...


1) The change in insolation due to the yearly cycle of variation in orbital distance from the Sun is VASTLY greater than that due to variability in the amount of the light being produced by the Sun.
The irradiance of the Sun was significantly lower before the Age of the Dinosaurs, yet the global temperatures were warmer than today.

2) "Without a natural greenhouse effect, the temperature of the Earth would be about 0degreesF(-18degreesC) instead of its present 57degreesF(14degreesC)."
So much for arguments that GreenhouseGases don't play a leading role in setting planetary temperatures.

The main effect of CosmicRays is turning regular folks like the FantasticFour into superhumans ;-)
3) Supposing that a SolarMinimum did cause such an increase in the amount of CosmicRays hitting the atmosphere in a manner that increased Earth's albedo which reflected more sunlight from hitting the surface, the last SolarMinimum did not cause any precipitous drop in Earth's average temperature: ie CosmicRays gave it their best shot, and GlobalWarming held steady against it.
QED) If the "more CosmicRays increase albedo" hypothesis were true, since we are now going into a SolarMaximum period, then we would expect to see a skyrocketing rise in global temperatures even beyond what could be attributed to increased sunlight and past increases in GreenhouseGases.

RaA) Your implied proposition that we don't need to reduce greenhouse gas emission is false whether or not CosmicRays have the effect that you want to believe in.
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April 2, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Quoting Birthmark:

Mmmmm....irrelevant cherries!


Lucky break for the people that live on that planet.

Meanwhile, back on Earth our Arctic Ice Cap will soon be gone at some during summer.


Who cares? Do you think people that are struggling to put food on their table and pay their mortgage while paying $4.50 for a gallon of gas care about this. Hey, I'm all for conservation and saving Mother Earth, but it just not at the top of most peoples agenda.
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Good day all!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Quoting Skeptic33:
Global Temperature has gone cold this century!

Quoting Skeptic33:
Look! It's okay! Arctic Ice is saved!
http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/statements.htm





I can't tell if you're spreading propaganda or just trolling?
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1545 BLEAKWOOD NEWTON TX 3069 9382 NWS STORM SURVEY COFIRMS AN EF1 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR BLEAKWOOD. THE PATH WAS 3 MILES LONG WITH A WIDTH OF 25 YARDS. ONE ABANDONED HOUSE WAS DESTROYED WHEN TREE FELL O (LCH)

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Quoting Skeptic33:
Global Temperature has gone cold this century!


Mmmmm....irrelevant cherries!

Quoting Skeptic33:
Look! It's okay! Arctic Ice is saved!

http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/statements.htm






Lucky break for the people that live on that planet.

Meanwhile, back on Earth our Arctic Ice Cap will soon be gone at some during summer.
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pretty bad over there...............FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MSC031-035-067-022300-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0037.120402T2107Z-120402T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
EXTREME NORTHERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 407 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR EASTABUCHIE...OR NEAR
PETAL. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. ESTIMATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN
THE PAST HOUR. PINE BELT REGIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED ONE AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WITH THESE STORMS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SANFORD AND MOSELLE

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 8946 3152 8915 3132 8915 3137 8925
3138 8944

$$

AEG
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Corpus Cristi is swealtering in the upper 80's with dewpoints in the mid-70's(yuck).

Compare that to a cozy dewpoint of just 51 in Opa Locka Florida(a suburb of Miami, temp 89).
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Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to form along the dryline in the Oklahoma Panhandle. These should move west and build south with time, posing a significant threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. This will continue until roughly near 00Z, when the tornado paramters dramatically increase. Effective Bulk Wind Shear increases to 60 knots by 00Z, along with Effective Storm Relative Helicity values near 400 m2/s2. These kind of parameters will definitely support the potential of a few tornadoes, and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch currently in place will either need to be upgraded to a Tornado Watch, or a new watch will need to be issued.
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Global Temperature has gone cold this century!

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're incorrect. We've been in a cold PDO cycle for some time now. In fact, we may be approaching the bottom of the cycle.


no one knows for sure whats going to happen
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arctic will be 95 percent ice free in summer by the end of aug early sept 2015 thats 3 years from now by 2020 arctic maybe ice free for 2 months or more by as much as 99 percent
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Quoting entrelac:
Considering that those are all dates well into the Industrial Revolution when CO2 amounts skyrocketed...


Link
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.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8465
Quoting NativeSun:
Since we ae entering the first years of a cold PDO and the AMO will begain cooling soon with a very good chance of low solar minimum cycles starting I will make a wild guess that the oceans will cool some what and the ice will return.


You're incorrect. We've been in a cold PDO cycle for some time now. In fact, we may be approaching the bottom of the cycle.


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Quoting MariettaMoon:


Really? I'm a little more conservative with that. I think the projections in the past estimated around 2050, but recent studies suggest more like the 2030's or something like that because of the feedback loops in ice volume that weren't being taken into account on climate models. I can't personally go any earlier than the recent data. What is it that makes you think it could be earlier?


My own informal analysis of sea ice volume and extent indicates an ice free arctic summer by the end of this decade. From what I know of climate models and their current results, they've consistently underestimated ice on all fronts. Nea's estimate is a bit more agressive than my own, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope we're fortunate enough to get a good start to the hurricane season, like Hurricane Alex. I don't like it when the season starts with a weak, disorganized tropical storm that causes massive flooding somewhere.



I.E. Allison 01?? ;)

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Quoting Bergeron:


I supposed the list of heat waves here is caused by GW as well?
Link

History
[edit]20th century
During a period of 160 such days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, the Western Australian town of Marble Bar set a world record for the most consecutive days above 100 �F (37.8 �C).[25]
The 1936 North American heat wave during the Dust Bowl, followed one of the coldest winters on record%u2014the 1936 North American cold wave. Massive heat waves across North America were persistent in the 1930s, many mid-Atlantic/Ohio valley states recorded their highest temperatures during July 1934. The longest continuous string of 100 �F (38 �C) or higher temperatures was reached for 101 days in Yuma, Arizona during 1937 and the highest temperatures ever reached in Canada were recorded in two locations in Saskatchewan in July 1937.
A prolonged severe drought and heat wave occurred in the early 1950s throughout the central and southern United States. In some areas it was drier than during the Dust Bowl and the heat wave in most areas was within the top five on record. The heat was particularly severe in 1954 with 22 days of temperatures exceeding 100 �F (38 �C) covering significant parts of eleven states. On July 14, the thermometer reached 117 �F (47 �C) at East St. Louis, Illinois, which remains the record highest temperature for that state.[26][27][28]
The heat waves of 1972 in New York and Northeastern United States were significant. Almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days, aggravated by high humidity levels.
The 1976 United Kingdom heat wave was one of the hottest in living memory and was marked by constant blues skies from May until September when dramatic thunderstorms signalled the heat wave's end.
An estimated 10,000 people perished in the 1980 United States heat wave and drought, which impacted the central and eastern United States. Temperatures were highest in the southern plains. From June through September, temperatures remained above 90 �F (32 �C) all but two days in Kansas City, Missouri. The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced 42 consecutive days with high temperatures above 100 �F (38 �C), with temperatures reaching 117 �F (47 �C) at Wichita Falls, Texas on June 28. Economic losses were $20 billion (1980 dollars).[29]
During another heat wave in the Summer of 1983 temperatures over 100 �F (38 �C) were common across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska and certain parts of Kentucky; the summer of 1983 remains one of the hottest summers ever recorded in many of the states affected. The hundred-degree readings were accompanied by very dry conditions associated with drought affecting the Corn Belt States and Upper Midwest. The heat also affected the Southeastern U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic states as well that same summer. New York Times represented articles about the heat waves of 1983 affecting the central United States.

During 1988 intense heat spells in combination with the drought of 1988 caused deadly results across the United States. Some 5,000 to 10,000 people perished because of constant heat across the United States although-according to many estimates-total death reports run as high as next to 17,000 deaths.
The 1995 Chicago heat wave produced record high dew point levels and heat indices in the Chicago area and Wisconsin. The lack of emergency cooling facilities and inadequate response from civic authorities to the senior population, particularly in lower income neighborhoods in Chicago and other Midwest cities, lead to many deaths.
The summer of 1999 saw a devastating heat wave and drought in the eastern United States. Rainfall shortages resulted in worst drought on record for Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. The state of West Viriginia was declared a disaster area. 3,810,000 acres (15,400 km2) were consumed by fire as of mid-Aug. Record heat throughout the country resulted in 502 deaths nationwide.
Considering that those are all dates well into the Industrial Revolution when CO2 amounts skyrocketed...
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Look! It's okay! Arctic Ice is saved!

http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/statements.htm





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Quoting NativeSun:
entrelac, I was the one who said the sun was going to solar min. I was trying to say the solar max was going to be very weak and act like a solar min. CO2 is a trace gas and is not the main driver in Global Warming.
Then my apologies for getting the two of you mixed up. You're both using a similar argument.

Despite the predictions that this will be the smallest sunspot cycle in 100 years I do not think that you can compare it with a minimum. We just saw deep minimum and activity has increased since then.

If CO2 is not the main driver in Global Warming then what do you think it is?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
Quoting BobWallace:


Come on, the data is there and it is extremely convincing. If you choose to ignore it, that's your decision.

We've know for well over 100 years about the heat-trapping properties of CO2 and we've measured the increase of CO2 in our atmosphere. We've also been able to show that the extra CO2 has come from burning fossil fuel.

This is simple science. It doesn't take much to understand it.



As for "trillions to fix it", we're going to spend money either to keep fueling fossil fuel plants and vehicles as well as replace them when they wear out, or to replace them and use "fuel" which costs us nothing.

Coal, when you add in the externalities, is a very expensive way to make electricity. New coal plants are a very expensive way to make electricity.

Wind is about 1/3rd the price of coal. Solar is cheaper than coal and will soon be down to the price of wind. A solar panel will, at today's prices, pay for itself in less than 20 years and then give 20, 30, 40 or more years of free electricity.

Having lots of wind generation on the grid in Texas and Spain has brought down the cost of electricity. Having a lot of solar on the grid in Germany has brought down the cost of electricity.

Driving an EV costs about 1/4th as much as an efficient gasmobile. And that's without adding in the hundreds of billions of dollars we spend on oil wars.

Even if fossil fuels were not creating a climatic disaster we would be much better off financially to get off fossil fuels.



I supposed the list of heat waves here is caused by GW as well?
Link

History
[edit]20th century
During a period of 160 such days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, the Western Australian town of Marble Bar set a world record for the most consecutive days above 100 �F (37.8 �C).[25]
The 1936 North American heat wave during the Dust Bowl, followed one of the coldest winters on record%u2014the 1936 North American cold wave. Massive heat waves across North America were persistent in the 1930s, many mid-Atlantic/Ohio valley states recorded their highest temperatures during July 1934. The longest continuous string of 100 �F (38 �C) or higher temperatures was reached for 101 days in Yuma, Arizona during 1937 and the highest temperatures ever reached in Canada were recorded in two locations in Saskatchewan in July 1937.
A prolonged severe drought and heat wave occurred in the early 1950s throughout the central and southern United States. In some areas it was drier than during the Dust Bowl and the heat wave in most areas was within the top five on record. The heat was particularly severe in 1954 with 22 days of temperatures exceeding 100 �F (38 �C) covering significant parts of eleven states. On July 14, the thermometer reached 117 �F (47 �C) at East St. Louis, Illinois, which remains the record highest temperature for that state.[26][27][28]
The heat waves of 1972 in New York and Northeastern United States were significant. Almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days, aggravated by high humidity levels.
The 1976 United Kingdom heat wave was one of the hottest in living memory and was marked by constant blues skies from May until September when dramatic thunderstorms signalled the heat wave's end.
An estimated 10,000 people perished in the 1980 United States heat wave and drought, which impacted the central and eastern United States. Temperatures were highest in the southern plains. From June through September, temperatures remained above 90 �F (32 �C) all but two days in Kansas City, Missouri. The Dallas/Fort Worth area experienced 42 consecutive days with high temperatures above 100 �F (38 �C), with temperatures reaching 117 �F (47 �C) at Wichita Falls, Texas on June 28. Economic losses were $20 billion (1980 dollars).[29]
During another heat wave in the Summer of 1983 temperatures over 100 �F (38 �C) were common across Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska and certain parts of Kentucky; the summer of 1983 remains one of the hottest summers ever recorded in many of the states affected. The hundred-degree readings were accompanied by very dry conditions associated with drought affecting the Corn Belt States and Upper Midwest. The heat also affected the Southeastern U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic states as well that same summer. New York Times represented articles about the heat waves of 1983 affecting the central United States.

During 1988 intense heat spells in combination with the drought of 1988 caused deadly results across the United States. Some 5,000 to 10,000 people perished because of constant heat across the United States although-according to many estimates-total death reports run as high as next to 17,000 deaths.
The 1995 Chicago heat wave produced record high dew point levels and heat indices in the Chicago area and Wisconsin. The lack of emergency cooling facilities and inadequate response from civic authorities to the senior population, particularly in lower income neighborhoods in Chicago and other Midwest cities, lead to many deaths.
The summer of 1999 saw a devastating heat wave and drought in the eastern United States. Rainfall shortages resulted in worst drought on record for Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. The state of West Viriginia was declared a disaster area. 3,810,000 acres (15,400 km2) were consumed by fire as of mid-Aug. Record heat throughout the country resulted in 502 deaths nationwide.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55975
I hope we're fortunate enough to get a good start to the hurricane season, like Hurricane Alex. I don't like it when the season starts with a weak, disorganized tropical storm that causes massive flooding somewhere.

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Quoting NativeSun:
Bob, just like the rest of the Global Warming crowd. When we know what he real cause of the earth warming is, then we can spend the trillions of dollars to fix it. O wait we don't have the trillions to fix it unless you want to cause a global depression and possible world war trying to fix it.


Come on, the data is there and it is extremely convincing. If you choose to ignore it, that's your decision.

We've know for well over 100 years about the heat-trapping properties of CO2 and we've measured the increase of CO2 in our atmosphere. We've also been able to show that the extra CO2 has come from burning fossil fuel.

This is simple science. It doesn't take much to understand it.



As for "trillions to fix it", we're going to spend money either to keep fueling fossil fuel plants and vehicles as well as replace them when they wear out, or to replace them and use "fuel" which costs us nothing.

Coal, when you add in the externalities, is a very expensive way to make electricity. New coal plants are a very expensive way to make electricity.

Wind is about 1/3rd the price of coal. Solar is cheaper than coal and will soon be down to the price of wind. A solar panel will, at today's prices, pay for itself in less than 20 years and then give 20, 30, 40 or more years of free electricity.

Having lots of wind generation on the grid in Texas and Spain has brought down the cost of electricity. Having a lot of solar on the grid in Germany has brought down the cost of electricity.

Driving an EV costs about 1/4th as much as an efficient gasmobile. And that's without adding in the hundreds of billions of dollars we spend on oil wars.

Even if fossil fuels were not creating a climatic disaster we would be much better off financially to get off fossil fuels.

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting NativeSun:
entrelac, I was the one who said the sun was going to solar min. I was trying to say the solar max was going to be very weak and act like a solar min.

Any particular reason for saying that?

Quoting NativeSun:
CO2 is a trace gas and is not the main driver in Global Warming.

Again, any particular reason for saying that?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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